SARS-CoV-2 attack rate and population immunity in southern New England, March 2020 - May 2021

Estimating an infectious disease attack rate requires inference on the number of reported symptomatic cases of a disease, the number of unreported symptomatic cases, and the number of asymptomatic infections. Population-level immunity can then be estimated as the attack rate plus the number of vaccine recipients who had not been previously infected; this requires an estimate of the fraction of vaccines that were distributed to seropositive individuals. To estimate attack rates and population immunity in southern New England, we fit a validated dynamic epidemiological model to case, clinical, and death data streams reported by Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut for the first 15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, from March 1 2020 to May 31 2021. This period includes the initial spring 2020 wave, the major winter wave of 2020-2021, and the lagging wave of lineage B.1.1.7(Alpha) infections during March-April 2021. In autumn 2020, SARS-CoV-2 population immunity (equal to the attack rate at that point) in southern New England was still below 15%, setting the stage for a large winter wave. After the roll-out of vaccines in early 2021, population immunity in many states was expected to approach 70% by spring 2021, with more than half of this immune population coming from vaccinations. Our population immunity estimates for May 31 2021 are 73.4% (95% CrI: 72.9% - 74.1%) for Rhode Island, 64.1% (95% CrI: 64.0% - 64.4%) for Connecticut, and 66.3% (95% CrI: 65.9% - 66.9%) for Massachusetts, indicating that >33% of southern Englanders were still susceptible to infection when the Delta variant began spreading in July 2021. Despite high vaccine coverage in these states, population immunity in summer 2021 was lower than planned due to 34% (Rhode Island), 25% (Connecticut), and 28% (Massachusetts) of vaccine distribution going to seropositive individuals. Future emergency-setting vaccination planning will likely have to consider over-vaccination as a strategy to ensure that high levels of population immunity are reached during the course of an ongoing epidemic.

Pharmacodynamic modeling and exposure-response assessment of inebilizumab in subjects with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders

AIM: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) is an autoantibody-mediated, B cell-driven disease. Inebilizumab is a humanized, affinity-optimized, afucosylated IgG1 kappa monoclonal antibody that binds to the B cell specific surface antigen CD19, resulting in rapid, profound, and sustained depletion of circulating peripheral B cells in NMOSD subjects (pivotal study). The objective of this study was to conduct population modeling of B cell response following inebilizumab treatment in adult subjects with NMOSD, and to assess the impact of drug exposure to outcome. METHODS: A hematopoietic transit model was developed to describe the joint effects of reducing influx from pro-B cells and accelerating CD20+ B cell depletion in the blood by inebilizumab. Furthermore, the relationships between inebilizumab pharmacokinetic (PK) exposure and the primary efficacy endpoint and key secondary efficacy endpoints were evaluated. KEY RESULTS: At the 300 mg dose, there was no apparent relationship between efficacy (reduction in disease attack risk, risk of worsening from baseline in Expanded Disability Status Scale, cumulative total active MRI lesions, and the number of NMOSD-related in-patient hospitalizations) and PK exposure. Subjects with low, medium, and high PK exposure had a similar hazard ratio of NMOSD attack vs placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: The pharmacodynamic modeling confirmed effective depletion of B cells is achieved with a 300 mg intravenous dose of inebilizumab administered on Day 1 and Day 15 and every 6 months thereafter. The PK variability between patients had no apparent effect on clinical efficacy.

A THE EFFECT OF DOSE AND TIME OF ADMINISTRATION OF TRICHODERMA SP ON FUSARIUM OXYSPORUM ON SHALLOT (Allium ascalonicum L)

ABSTRACT This studypaimsptopdeterminepthe appropriate dosepand time ofxadministration ofxTrichoderma sp to control Fusarium oxysporum disease in shallot plants. Thepresearch waspconductedpfrompSeptemberp2020ptoxDecemberx2020 in Karangasem Hamlet, Guli Village, Nogosari District, Boyolali Regency. Thispstudypusedpapfactorialpcompletely randomizedpdesign (RAL) methodpwhich consisted ofp2pfactors. Thepfirst treatmentpfactor was thepdose ofpTrichoderma sp (D) which consisted of 3 g, 5g, 7g and the time of administration (T) which was one week before planting, during planting and a week after planting. Parameterspobservedpwerepnumberpof leaves, number ofptubers, weightpof fresh stover, weight of dry stover and intensity of disease attack. The results showed that the treatment with the best Trichoderma sp (D) dose was obtained in the D3 treatment with a dose of 7 grams / liter of solution had a very significant effect on the number of leaves, fresh stover, dry stover, intensity of disease attack and not significantly different on the number of tubers. The best time treatment for giving Trichoderma sp (T) was obtained in T1 treatment, namely the time of administration one week before planting had a significant effect on the number of leaves, fresh stover, and was not significantly different on the number of tubers, dry stover, intensity of disease attack. Meanwhile, the best combination of dosage and time of administration of Trichoderma sp was obtained in the (D3T1) treatment, namely the administration of a dose of 7 grams / liter of solution and the time of administration one week before planting had a significant effect on dry stover and had no significant effect on other parameters. Keywords : Trichoderma sp, fusarium oxysporum, shallot.

Health identification of Shorea javanica Koord. and valeton in nursery

Shorea javanica Koord. and Valeton is an identity tree of Lampung Province. The dammar of this species, locally known as damar mata kucing (cat-eye resin). The population of S. javanica is mostly in Repong Damar and grows naturally in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park. Within a decade, the damar mata kucing production was decreased. The threat of deforestation, land degradation, and the scarcity of regeneration were some of the causes. One of the important efforts that could be done was to procure quality seedlings in the nursery. Knowledge of the health condition of seedlings in a nursery is very important in supporting plant cultivation success. Plant insects and diseases were one of the determining factors. This study aims to determine the health of S. javanica seedlings in South Lampung Permanent Nursery, which Way Seputih Way Sekampung Watershed Management Center and Protected Forest manage. This seed health identification activity used the Systematic Random Sampling method with a sampling intensity of 10%. The samples obtained were carried out by identifying the type of damage, location of damage, and severity of all S. javanica seeds sampled using criteria and standards for crop assessment results according to the International Center’s Environmental Monitoring standards Assessment Program (EMAP). Based on the result of the research, from 100 seedlings of S. javanica that was observed 75% of seedlings are unhealth, and 25% of seedlings are healthy. Among the 75% unhealthy seedling, 2% were dead. The intensity of total attack is about 73%, the intensity of insect attack is about 41%, and disease attack intensity is 32%, with the highest attack severity 30-39%. The results showed that the live percentage of S. javanica seedlings was 98% which was in the very good category.

Intensitas dan Persentase Serangan Beberapa Penyakit Utama Pada Tanaman Sawit (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) di Desa Tebing Tinggi Kecamatan Mara Sebo Ulu Kabupaten Batanghari

This research was carried out in smallholder oil palm plantations in Tebing Tinggi Village, Mara Sebo District, Batanghari Regency from March to June 2021. The purpose of the study was to observe the diseases that exist in oil palm plantations, the percentage and intensity of the disease attacks. This study used a survey method with random sampling at 3 locations of smallholder plantations in Tebing Tinggi village, namely 20 sample plants from each garden. Observe all plants and count how many are symptomatic of the disease. Then calculated the percentage and intensity of disease attacks. Samples of diseased plants were taken and wrapped in damp newspapers for identification at the Unbari Basic Laboratory. The results showed that in Tebing Tinggi village, Mara Sebo Ulu district, the highest percentage of Curvularia leaf spot disease caused by the fungus Curvularia sp was found in P2 area at 40%, Drechslera leaf spot disease attack caused by Drechslera sp fungus was highest in P2 land. by 35%, and the highest attack of crown disease (Crown Disease) caused by the fungus Fusarium sp. was found in P3 land by 20%. The intensity of disease attacks found in Tebing Tinggi Village, namely, the intensity of the attack of Curvularia Leaf Spot disease caused by the fungus Curvularia sp in Tebing Tinggi village was 28.75%, the intensity of Drecshlera Leaf Spot disease caused by Drechslera sp fungus was 26.25% and Crown disease crown disease is 6.6%.

Statistical Modeling and Significance of Inputs Studies for the Rice Crop Productivity in Pakistan

Lower production of rice crop and increasing population trend is a tangible question for Pakistan. The current study based cross-sectional data collected from crop reporting service Punjab. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model is applied to investigate the significant factor for rice crop yield enhancement. The inputs variable i.e. owned land, seed rate, DAP, Urea, no. of water, no. of ploughs, no. of levels, crop life periods days, other fertilizers, variety super yes or no, seed type yes or no, spray no or yes and disease attack yes or no are studied in MLR model for rice productivity. All the factors found to be statistical significant except land, level, crop life period and super variety. Adj R2 is found to be 0.422 and it is good fit for cross-sectional data.

Effect of foliar application of different elicitors on occurrence of pest and diseases during chia (Salvia hispanica L.) cultivation

Chia is an important medicinal crop with lot of nutritional value in seeds and there is lot of demand to chia seeds grown without any chemical application. In this context, present study was concentrated on foliar application of different elicitors at 25 and 50 days after sowing as effective plant protectants by inducing plant defense response. Both black and white chia plants sprayed with chitosan at 200 ppm were un-affected by any pest and diseases. The plants sprayed with other elicitors like 100 ppm of salicylic acid, methyl jasmonic acid, potassium silicate, 200 ppm of boric acid, humic acid and 5000 ppm of dry yeast and PGPR are less prone to pest and disease attack. Whereas, the maximum pest infestation and disease incidence were noticed in plants sprayed with gibberellic acid (pest - 2.38 and 1.93%; disease - 0.89% in both) and in control (pest - 1.34 and 1.04%; disease - 1.34 and 0.74%) in black and white chia respectively.

A Mini-Review: Effect of Pandanus amaryllifolius Roxb Leaves for Fish Health

In fish farming, problems often occur due to disease attacks. Disease attack can result in decreased production and quality of fish. This is very detrimental to cultivators. Disease control is an important factor to be acknowledged. The use of herbs is an alternative for disease control that is relatively safe. Pandanus amaryllifolius Roxb plants are known to contain several secondary metabolite compounds, namely achaloid, flavonoids, tannins and steroids which are antibacterial and antioxidant. The results of the study show that this plant species from the Pandanaceae family can be used for treatment and prevention of disease-infected fish. The purpose of this article is to describe the compounds contained in P. amaryllifolius and their benefits for fish health. P. amaryllifolius gives a positive effect on health of fish, it can be used to treat and prevent disease in fishes.

Pendugaan Intensitas Serangan Penyakit BLB (Bacterial Leaf Blight) pada Tanaman Padi menggunakan Pendekatan Citra Termal

Penyakit BLB merupakan salah satu penyakit yang berbahaya bagi tanaman padi. Penyakit ini biasanya menyerang di setiap fase pertumbuhan. Perhitungan intensitas serangan penyakit BLB masih dilakukan secara manual. Pengembangan teknologi dalam pendugaan intensitas serangan penyakit BLB sangat diperlukan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun persamaan pendugaan intensitas serangan penyakit BLB menggunakan pendekatan citra termal. Penelitian ini menggunakan Drone DJI Inspire 1 dengan kamera termal DJI Zenmuse XT. Pengolahan data menggunakan software Agisoft Photoscan, Arcgis 10.3 dan Microsoft Excel. Dari hasil analisis citra termal diperoleh bahwa persamaan pendugaan intensitas serangan adalah y = 4.9533x-144.42 dan akurasi pendugaannya tinggi yaitu 90,45% dengan nilai eror 8,43%. Suhu kanopi dapat diklasifikasi menjadi empat sesuai dengan intensitas serangan yaitu 29,83-31,84oC untuk intensitas serangan ringan, 31,85-34,39oC untuk intensitas serangan sedang, 34,40-43,52oC untuk intensitas serangan berat dan 43,53-48,09oC untuk intensitas serangan puso. Berdasarkan hasil dari penelitian yang telah dilakukan dapat disimpulkan bahwa pendekatan citra termal dapat digunakan untuk menduga intensitas serangan penyakit BLB pada tanaman padi. Bacterial Leaf Blight (BLB) is a dangerous disease for rice plants. This disease can attack in every phase of growth. Calculation of BLB disease attack intensity is currently still done manually. Technology development in estimating the intensity of BLB disease is very necessary. This study aims to establish the equation for estimating BLB disease intensity using a thermal image approach. Drone DJI Inspire 1 with a thermal camera DJI Zenmuse XT was used in this research. Processing data using software Agisoft Photoscan, Arcgis 10.3 and Microsoft Excel. From the results of the thermal image analysis, it was found that the equation for estimating attack intensity is y = 4.9533x-144.42 and estimation accuracy is high at 90,45% with an error value of 8,43%. Temperature of the canopy can be classified into four according to the intensity of the attack, namely 29,83-31,84oC for mild attack intensity, 31,85-34,39oC for moderate attack intensity, 34,40-43,52oC for intensity of severe attacks and 43,53-48,09oC for intensity of puso attacks. From these results it can be concluded that the thermal image approach can be used to estimate BLB disease attacks on rice plants.

PENGARUH PUPUK NPK DAN NANO PESTISIDA SERAIWANGI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN DAN HASIL TANAMAN CABAI MERAH (Capsicum annuum L.)

Experiments on the influence of NPK fertilizers and citronella pesticides nano on the growth and yield of red chili (Capsimum annuum L.) were carried out on dry land in Korong Pasar Baru village, Nansabaris District, Padang Pariaman Regency, West Sumatra from February - June 2020. The research objective was to determine the interaction of NPK fertilizer and citronella pesticide on growth, yield and disease attack rates in red chilies. The experiment used a randomized block design (RBD) with two factors. The first factor was the dosage of NPK fertilizer consisting of 3 levels, namely: 0 kg/ha, 100 kg/ha, and 150 kg/ha. The second factor is the concentration of citronella pesticide nano, namely: 0 ml/L, 3 ml/L, 6 ml/L and 9 ml/L. Based on the results of the experiment, it can be concluded that NPK fertilizers and citronella pesticides can increase the growth and yield of chili plants and suppress curly disease 83.4%.