Intelligent energy optimization in park-wide farming considering user’s preferences

With the development of park-level agricultural, agricultural production and household electricity fusion, it is of great significance to promote users to actively respond to power consumption plan based on their own habits. In this paper, a multi-objective household intelligent power consumption optimization model is proposed from two aspects of economy and comfort. Firstly, the operating constraints of interruptible loads and non-interruptible loads were established based on the working characteristics of various household appliances. Then, the expenditure model was constructed to take into account the electricity sales situation of surplus electricity generated by photovoltaic, and a three-layer index system quantifying the influence of user preference on comfort level was constructed. The preference coefficient was determined by analytic hierarchy process, which was used to construct the users’ comfort level model. Finally, the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm was applied to obtain optimization results. Considering the seasonal difference, the simulation showed that this model minimized the expenditure and increased the comfort level during summer and winter by 26.0% and 27.5% respectively.

ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТОВ ВЛИЯНИЯ МЕЖГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ НА АГРАРНЫЙ СЕКТОР КАЗАХСТАНА

Researching the agro-industrial complex development in formation of the Eurasian economic Union context is intended to assess the impact on agricultural production stability and competitiveness and its growth in integration process. Using the following indicators to assess the international economic integration process was carried out effects assessment of interstate integration on stability and competitiveness Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector: the economic openness indicator, the share of mutual trade turnover in the total trade turnover, the index of intra-industry trade for two countries case and one industry (the Grubel-Lloyd index), the preference coefficient, the mutual preference coefficient, the relative preference coefficient. Countries that are members to the integration Union get a number of dynamic advantages, which are showed in integration development process in the long term. There are not excluded the probability of the following negative integration effects – unilateral advantages for more developed member countries, price increases due to the formation of member countries’ transnational companies, demonstrations of descending economies effects scale (losses on scale). In general, the positive effects of integration, both static and dynamic, exceed the negative ones. Исследуя развитие агропромышленного комплекса в условиях формирования Евразийского экономического союза, предполагается оценить влияние на устойчивость и конкурентоспособность аграрного производства нарастание интеграционного процесса. С помощью показателей, позволяющих оценить процесс международной экономической интеграции: показатель открытости экономики, доля оборота взаимной торговли в общем обороте торговли, индекс внутриотраслевой торговли для случая двух стран и одной отрасли (индекс Грубеля-Ллойда), коэффициент предпочтения, коэффициент взаимного предпочтения, коэффициент относительного предпочтения, проведена оценка эффектов межгосударственной интеграции на устойчивость и конкурентоспособность аграрного сектора Казахстана. Страны, входящие в интеграционный союз, получают ряд динамических преимуществ, которые проявляются в процессе развития интеграции в долгосрочном периоде, где не исключается вероятность возникновения негативных эффектов интеграции - односторонних преимуществ для более развитых стран-участниц, повышение цен вследствие формирования транснациональных компаний стран-участниц, проявлений нисходящего эффекта масштаба (потерь на масштабе). В целом позитивные эффекты интеграции, как статические, так и динамические, превышают негативные.

Risk-Averse Pricing Decisions Related to Recyclables’ Quality in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain

In a closed-loop supply chain, uncertainty of recyclables’ quality is a major factor of supply chain members’ decision-making. Because of this uncertainty, manufacturers must pay varying manufacturing costs for remanufacturing recyclables. Our study assumed that manufacturers are risk-averse towards uncertainty in manufacturing costs and constructed a retailer recycling model and a third-party recycling model to investigate pricing decisions in a decentralized closed-loop supply chain under uncertainty about recyclables’ quality. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (1) the higher the degree of consumer preference for remanufactured products, the higher the wholesale and retail prices of remanufactured products and the higher the recycling price of used products; (2) the two recycling models showed a U-shaped relationship between supply chain revenue and the degree of consumer preference for remanufactured products, and this supply chain revenue is related to the consumer preference coefficient; (3) there is a U-shaped relationship between the retailer’s expected revenue and the degree of consumer preference for remanufactured products in the R mode and an M-shaped relationship between them in the 3P mode; (4) in both recycling modes, the manufacturer’s risk aversion is inversely proportional to supply chain revenue, and supply chain revenue in the R mode is higher than that in the 3P mode; and (5) the higher the uncertainty of recyclables’ quality, the lower the recycling price of used products and the lower the manufacturer’s enthusiasm for recycling or for used products.

Optimal channel decision of retailers in the dual-channel supply chain considering consumer preference for delivery lead time

Facing competition from manufacturers' online direct channels, how retailers make sales channel decisions to increase consumer stickiness has become the core concern of the industry and academia. Empirical research showed that delivery lead time is a key factor that affects consumers' preference for online channels. To analyze the impact of consumer delivery time preference on channel selection and pricing strategy of retailers, consumer delivery lead time preference function was improved from a linear function to an exponential function and consumer demand under the mixed dual-channel supply chain of manufacturer and retailer was derived. Then, the Stackelberg game models under different channel strategies of retailer were established and solved. Results show that consumer preference for delivery lead time has four implications on the channel decision of retailers under manufacturer encroachment in the dual-channel supply chain. First, the dual retail channels strategy is the optimal choice for retailers, and the profit margins that a retailer obtains from dual retail channels supply chain and single online retail channel supply chain will increase as consumers' delivery lead time preference coefficient increases. Second, the optimal pricing of online retail channel and offline retail channel is positively related to consumers' delivery lead time preference coefficient. By contrast, the optimal pricing of online direct channel is negatively related to consumers' delivery lead time preference coefficient. Third, the optimal pricing of online retail channel is higher than that of offline retail and online direct channels. Fourth, a retailer and a manufacturer can adopt a compensation-based whole price contract to address the conflict brought about by the optimal channel choice of the retailer. This study introduces consumer delivery lead time preference into retailer channel decision making and provides a theoretical reference for retailer's mixed channel construction in practice.

Chaotic Behaviors in a Nonlinear Game of Two-Level Green Supply Chain with Government Subsidies

In this paper, a two-level green supply chain composed of a manufacturer and a retailer is taken as the background. Considering the consumer’s double consumption preference and the manufacturer’s green product R&D investment, a differential game model of the green supply chain under the government cost subsidy strategy is constructed. Firstly, the equilibrium points of the system are solved and their stability is discussed and analyzed. Secondly, the dynamic evolution process of Nash equilibrium under the parameters of green degree, green preference coefficient, retail channel preference coefficient, coefficient of the sensitivity of price, and adjustment speed are described by numerical simulation. The results show that the two ways of a system entering chaos are Flip bifurcation and N-S bifurcation, respectively, by 2D bifurcation graph, and it is also verified in 1D bifurcation diagram. When the bifurcation parameters are small, the system maintains Nash equilibrium stability. If the green degree of products is increased, the green preference coefficient will also increase; on the contrary, the retail preference coefficient will decrease. Research and development cost subsidy policy can effectively improve the green degree of products and increase the sales volume of products, so as to improve the profit of supply chain members.

Decisions in Power Supply Chain with Emission Reduction Effort of Coal-Fired Power Plant under the Power Market Reform

Sustainability in power supply chain has been supported by emission reduction of coal-fired power generation and increasing renewable energy power generation. Under the power market reform of direct power purchase transactions, this paper focuses on the channel selection and emission reduction decisions of power supply chain. From the theoretical perspective, this paper develops the decision-making models of centralized and decentralized power supply chain, which consist of one renewable energy power generation enterprise, one coal-fired power plant and one power grid enterprise. The optimal strategies of power quantities and profits for power supply chain members and their corresponding numerical experiments are analyzed in different cases. The results show that there are qA1Nc*<qA1Lc* for renewable energy power generation enterprise A, qB1Nc*>qB1Lc* and eBNc*>eBLc* for coal-fired power plant B, which indicate that the direct power purchase channel in the centralized scenario is conducive to promoting the transaction quantity of renewable energy power generation, as well as the on-grid power quantity and emission reduction efforts of coal-fired power plant B. Furthermore, the profit of whole power supply chain could be enhanced by the increasing on-grid power preference coefficient of coal-fired power generation, subsidy for renewable energy power generation and preference coefficient for clean production, and by the decreasing emission reduction cost coefficient of coal-fired power plant. Additionally, the emission reduction effort of coal-fired power plant is positively relevant with preference coefficient for clean production, whereas it is negatively relevant with power grid wheeling charge, emission reduction cost coefficient and subsidy for renewable energy power generation. Our findings can provide useful managerial insights for policymakers and enterprises in the sustainability of power supply chain.

Greenness and Pricing Decisions of Cooperative Supply Chains Considering Altruistic Preferences

With the development of the economy and science technology, global resource shortages and environmental pressures have become the focus of attention. More and more consumers tend to buy non-polluting and environmentally friendly green products, and many manufacturers and retailers are beginning to produce or sell green products to enhance their competitive advantage in the market. Considering the green preference attributes of consumers, the altruistic preference is introduced into the supply chain, and we establish four models: two cooperative manufacturers and one retailer are completely self-interested, one retailer has altruistic preference, two cooperative manufacturers have altruistic preferences, and two cooperative manufacturers and one retailer have altruistic preferences. We address the optimal greenness and pricing decisions of supply chain members, and analyze the impact of altruistic preferences on supply chain decision-making and profits. The results show that the altruistic preference coefficient can significantly affect the decision-making and the profits of supply chain members, and when two manufacturers and one retailer consider altruistic preferences, the altruistic preference coefficients adopted by the three parties are in the certain ranges, the supply chain members’ altruistic preference coefficients can increase the whole supply chain profit. Through analysis, in the three cases where the retailer has altruistic preferences, two manufacturers have altruistic preferences, and two manufacturers and one retailer have altruistic preferences, two manufacturers should adopt higher altruistic preference coefficients, and the retailer should adopt a lower altruistic preference coefficient, and the product greenness under the three altruistic preferences is higher than the product greenness when there is no altruistic preference.

Biotopical distribution of sable in state nature reserve «Yuganskiy» area

The population dynamics and biotope distribution of the sable (Martes zibellina) in the Yuganskiy nature reserve have been a subject of continuous study since 1988. Data for analysis is obtained from annual route census surveys performed in February and March. There are four major types of sable habitats: dark conifer taiga (primarily formed by Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica and Picea obovata), light conifer taiga (forest stands dominated by Pinus sylvestris), deciduous taiga (secondary forests dominated by Betula and Populus, with conifers in the undergrowth) and raised bogs (poorly drained treeless or treed spaces covered by Sphagnum and dwarf forms of Pinus sylvestris). Based on the material collected in 1988-2015 using the calculated biotope preference coefficient we defined the degree of attractiveness of different biotope types. In the area of the Yuganskiy nature reserve, forested biotopes are optimal for the sable. They represent its intrinsically typical biotopes where population density is defined by a complex of characteristic food and shelter conditions, as well as a variety of intrapopulational factors. Among the different types of forested habitats of the sable, the highest and most stable population values are typical for dark conifer taiga, which makes it a key biotope for the survival of the species’ population. This habitat type is also characterized by the maximum values of the biotope preference coefficient, which indicates the apparent preference of the sable among other mentioned biotope types. Light conifer and deciduous taiga are less valuable; however, they also provide sufficient conditions to ensure the stability of the sable population. In the Yuganskiy nature reserve, these two habitat types are equally attractive for sable populations, as shown by the virtually equal values of the preference coefficient and a similar type of its value dynamics. Bog biotopes are pessimal for the sable due to the scarcity of the ecological resources required by this species. They are characterized by the lowest population densities of the sable and the greatest population fluctuations from year to year. The biotope preference coefficient is often near zero, which also indicates the low attractiveness of these habitats.

Selection of risk response actions considering risk dependency

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a method to address the problem of selecting risk response actions (RRAs) considering the risk dependency that is seldom considered in the existing studies. Design/methodology/approach First, a method based on the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) is proposed to measure the dependencies between the risks, and then a preference coefficient denoting the relative importance of the risk dependency is introduced. Besides, an exponential utility function is used to describe the project manager’s (PM) risk-averse behaviour. Finally, a mathematical model that incorporates the risk dependency and risk preference of the PM is constructed for selecting the RRAs. Findings Risk dependency plays an important role in the process of RRA selection. First, more expected utility can be obtained when the risk dependency is considered. Second, more attention should be paid to the risk dependency for coping with critical risks when the budget is tight. Practical implications This method can be applied to determine the RRAs when the risk dependency exists between the project risks. Originality/value This paper proposes a model to select RRAs with consideration of the risk dependency, which is an important issue from a theoretical as well as a practical perspective in project risk management.

New full velocity difference model considering the driver’s heterogeneity of the disturbance risk preference for car-following theory

This paper proposes a new full velocity difference model considering the driver’s heterogeneity of the disturbance risk preference for car-following theory to investigate the effects of the driver’s heterogeneity of the disturbance risk preference on traffic flow instability when the driver reacts to the relative velocity. We obtain traffic flow instability condition and the calculation method of the unstable region headway range and the probability of traffic congestion caused by a small disturbance. The analysis shows that has important effects the driver’s heterogeneity of the disturbance risk preference on traffic flow instability: (1) traffic flow instability is independent of the absolute size of the driver’s disturbance risk preference coefficient and depends on the ratio of the preceding vehicle driver’s disturbance risk preference coefficient to the following vehicle driver’s disturbance risk preference coefficient; (2) the smaller the ratio of the preceding vehicle driver’s disturbance risk preference coefficient to the following vehicle driver’s disturbance risk preference coefficient, the smaller traffic flow instability and vice versa. It provides some viable ideas to suppress traffic congestion.