Large-scale identification of hot spots for soil carbon demand under climate change and bioenergy production

In this Opinion, the importance of public awareness to design solutions to mitigate climate change issues is highlighted. A large-scale acknowledgment of the climate change consequences has great potential to build social momentum. Momentum, in turn, builds motivation and demand, which can be leveraged to develop a multi-scale strategy to tackle the issue. The pursuit of public awareness is a valuable addition to the scientific approach to addressing climate change issues. The Opinion is concluded by providing strategies on how to effectively raise public awareness on climate change-related topics through an integrated, well-connected network of mavens (e.g., scientists) and connectors (e.g., social media influencers).

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Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-021-05812-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alba de la Vara ◽

William Cabos ◽

Dmitry V. Sein ◽

Claas Teichmann ◽

Daniela Jacob

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Large Scale ◽

Regional Distribution ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

The North ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

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Contributions of Vegetation Greening and Climate Change to Evapotranspiration Trend after Large-Scale Vegetation Restoration on the Loess Plateau, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w13131755 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 1755

Author(s):

Shuo Wang ◽

Chenfeng Cui ◽

Qin Dai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Loess Plateau ◽

Large Scale ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Development Trend ◽

Future Trend ◽

Natural Ecosystem ◽

The Loess Plateau

Since the early 2000s, the vegetation cover of the Loess Plateau (LP) has increased significantly, which has been fully recorded. However, the effects on relevant eco-hydrological processes are still unclear. Here, we made an investigation on the changes of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) during 2000–2018 and connected them with vegetation greening and climate change in the LP, based on the remote sensing data with correlation and attribution analysis. Results identified that the average annual ETa on the LP exhibited an obvious increasing trend with the value of 9.11 mm yr−1, and the annual ETa trend was dominated by the changes of ETa in the third quarter (July, August, and September). The future trend of ETa was predicted by the Hurst exponent. Partial correlation analysis indicated that annual ETa variations in 87.8% regions of the LP were controlled by vegetation greening. Multiple regression analysis suggested that the relative contributions of potential evapotranspiration (ETp), precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), to the trend of ETa were 5.7%, −26.3%, and 61.4%, separately. Vegetation greening has a close relationship with the Grain for Green (GFG) project and acts as an essential driver for the long-term development trend of water consumption on the LP. In this research, the potential conflicts of water demanding between the natural ecosystem and social-economic system in the LP were highlighted, which were caused by the fast vegetation expansion.

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Repeated surveying over 6 years reveals that fine-scale habitat variables are key to tropical mountain ant assemblage composition and functional diversity

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-80077-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mulalo M. Muluvhahothe ◽

Grant S. Joseph ◽

Colleen L. Seymour ◽

Thinandavha C. Munyai ◽

Stefan H. Foord

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Composition ◽

High Altitude ◽

Functional Diversity ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Abiotic Factors ◽

Composition Analysis ◽

Fine Scale

AbstractHigh-altitude-adapted ectotherms can escape competition from dominant species by tolerating low temperatures at cooler elevations, but climate change is eroding such advantages. Studies evaluating broad-scale impacts of global change for high-altitude organisms often overlook the mitigating role of biotic factors. Yet, at fine spatial-scales, vegetation-associated microclimates provide refuges from climatic extremes. Using one of the largest standardised data sets collected to date, we tested how ant species composition and functional diversity (i.e., the range and value of species traits found within assemblages) respond to large-scale abiotic factors (altitude, aspect), and fine-scale factors (vegetation, soil structure) along an elevational gradient in tropical Africa. Altitude emerged as the principal factor explaining species composition. Analysis of nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity indicated that ant assemblages are specific to each elevation, so species are not filtered out but replaced with new species as elevation increases. Similarity of assemblages over time (assessed using beta decay) did not change significantly at low and mid elevations but declined at the highest elevations. Assemblages also differed between northern and southern mountain aspects, although at highest elevations, composition was restricted to a set of species found on both aspects. Functional diversity was not explained by large scale variables like elevation, but by factors associated with elevation that operate at fine scales (i.e., temperature and habitat structure). Our findings highlight the significance of fine-scale variables in predicting organisms’ responses to changing temperature, offering management possibilities that might dilute climate change impacts, and caution when predicting assemblage responses using climate models, alone.

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Predicting Shifts in Land Suitability for Maize Cultivation Worldwide Due to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

Land ◽

10.3390/land10030295 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 295

Author(s):

Yuan Gao ◽

Anyu Zhang ◽

Yaojie Yue ◽

Jing’ai Wang ◽

Peng Su

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Large Scale ◽

Land Suitability ◽

Large Scale Assessment ◽

Scale Assessment ◽

Maize Cultivation ◽

Large Scale Screening ◽

Selection Of

Suitable land is an important prerequisite for crop cultivation and, given the prospect of climate change, it is essential to assess such suitability to minimize crop production risks and to ensure food security. Although a variety of methods to assess the suitability are available, a comprehensive, objective, and large-scale screening of environmental variables that influence the results—and therefore their accuracy—of these methods has rarely been explored. An approach to the selection of such variables is proposed and the criteria established for large-scale assessment of land, based on big data, for its suitability to maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation as a case study. The predicted suitability matched the past distribution of maize with an overall accuracy of 79% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.72. The land suitability for maize is likely to decrease markedly at low latitudes and even at mid latitudes. The total area suitable for maize globally and in most major maize-producing countries will decrease, the decrease being particularly steep in those regions optimally suited for maize at present. Compared with earlier research, the method proposed in the present paper is simple yet objective, comprehensive, and reliable for large-scale assessment. The findings of the study highlight the necessity of adopting relevant strategies to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.

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Climate change refugia: landscape, stand and tree-scale microclimates in epiphyte community composition

The Lichenologist ◽

10.1017/s0024282920000523 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 53 (1) ◽

pp. 135-148

Author(s):

Christopher J. Ellis ◽

Sally Eaton

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Community Composition ◽

Large Scale ◽

Biological Response ◽

Tree Age ◽

Local Effects ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Or Gene ◽

Water Holding ◽

Epiphyte Community

AbstractThere is growing evidence that species and communities are responding to, and will continue to be affected by, climate change. For species at risk, vulnerability can be reduced by ensuring that their habitat is extensive, connected and provides opportunities for dispersal and/or gene flow, facilitating a biological response through migration or adaptation. For woodland epiphytes, vulnerability might also be reduced by ensuring sufficient habitat heterogeneity, so that microhabitats provide suitable local microclimates, even as the larger scale climate continues to change (i.e. microrefugia). This study used fuzzy set ordination to compare bryophyte and lichen epiphyte community composition to a large-scale gradient from an oceanic to a relatively more continental macroclimate. The residuals from this relationship identified microhabitats in which species composition reflected a climate that was more oceanic or more continental than would be expected given the prevailing macroclimate. Comparing these residuals to features that operate at different scales to create the microclimate (landscape, stand and tree-scale), it was possible to identify how one might engineer microrefugia into existing or new woodland, in order to reduce epiphyte vulnerability to climate change. Multimodel inference was used to identify the most important features for consideration, which included local effects such as height on the bole, angle of bole lean and bark water holding capacity, as well as tree species and tree age, and within the landscape, topographic wetness and physical exposure.

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Influence of Water Allocation on Bioenergy Production under Climate Change: A Stochastic Mathematical Programming Approach

Energy ◽

10.1016/j.energy.2021.120955 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 120955

Author(s):

Chih-Chun Kung ◽

Tao Wu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mathematical Programming ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Programming Approach ◽

Bioenergy Production ◽

Influence Of Water ◽

Mathematical Programming Approach

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Mapping the Distribution of Water Resource Security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region at the County Level under a Changing Context

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11226463 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (22) ◽

pp. 6463 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Li ◽

Yin ◽

Zhang ◽

Croke ◽

Guo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Large Scale ◽

Water Diversion ◽

County Level ◽

Populated Region ◽

Water Resource Security ◽

Resource Security

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jingjinji) region is the most densely populated region in China and suffers from severe water resource shortage, with considerable water-related issues emerging under a changing context such as construction of water diversion projects (WDP), regional synergistic development, and climate change. To this end, this paper develops a framework to examine the water resource security for 200 counties in the Jingjinji region under these changes. Thus, county-level water resource security is assessed in terms of the long-term annual mean and selected typical years (i.e., dry, normal, and wet years), with and without the WDP, and under the current and projected future (i.e., regional synergistic development and climate change). The outcomes of such scenarios are assessed based on two water-crowding indicators, two use-to-availability indicators, and one composite indicator. Results indicate first that the water resources are distributed unevenly, relatively more abundant in the northeastern counties and extremely limited in the other counties. The water resources are very limited at the regional level, with the water availability per capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP) being only 279/290 m3 and 46/18 m3 in the current and projected future scenarios, respectively, even when considering the WDP. Second, the population carrying capacity is currently the dominant influence, while economic development will be the controlling factor in the future for most middle and southern counties. This suggests that significant improvement in water-saving technologies, vigorous replacement of industries from high to low water consumption, as well as water from other supplies for large-scale applications are greatly needed. Third, the research identifies those counties most at risk to water scarcity and shows that most of them can be greatly relieved after supplementation by the planned WDP. Finally, more attention should be paid to the southern counties because their water resources are not only limited but also much more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. This work should benefit water resource management and allocation decisions in the Jingjinji region, and the proposed assessment framework can be applied to other similar problems.

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