scholarly journals Statistical analysis of the community lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaocong Wu ◽  
Xiaolong Wang ◽  
Jingyong Su
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Complex Dynamic ◽  
Spreading Process ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Basic Assumptions ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Multiple Variables

AbstractAs the global pandemic of the COVID-19 continues, the statistical modeling and analysis of the spreading process of COVID-19 have attracted widespread attention. Various propagation simulation models have been proposed to predict the spread of the epidemic and the effectiveness of related control measures. These models play an indispensable role in understanding the complex dynamic situation of the epidemic. Most existing work studies the spread of epidemic at two levels including population and agent. However, there is no comprehensive statistical analysis of community lockdown measures and corresponding control effects. This paper performs a statistical analysis of the effectiveness of community lockdown based on the Agent-Level Pandemic Simulation (ALPS) model. We propose a statistical model to analyze multiple variables affecting the COVID-19 pandemic, which include the timings of implementing and lifting lockdown, the crowd mobility, and other factors. Specifically, a motion model followed by ALPS and related basic assumptions is discussed first. Then the model has been evaluated using the real data of COVID-19. The simulation study and comparison with real data have validated the effectiveness of our model.

scholarly journals Effects of heterogeneity in infection-exposure history and immunity on the dynamics of a protozoan parasite

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (16) ◽  
pp. 841-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maite Severins ◽  
Don Klinkenberg ◽  
Hans Heesterbeek
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Protozoan Parasite ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Infection Process ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Complex Dynamic ◽  
Systems Models ◽  
Exposure History ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Initial Contamination

Infection systems where traits of the host, such as acquired immunity, interact with the infection process can show complex dynamic behaviour with counter-intuitive results. In this study, we consider the traits ‘immune status’ and ‘exposure history’, and our aim is to assess the influence of acquired individual heterogeneity in these traits. We have built an individual-based model of Eimeria acervulina infections, a protozoan parasite with an environmental stage that causes coccidiosis in chickens. With the model, we simulate outbreaks of the disease under varying initial contaminations. Heterogeneity in the traits arises stochastically through differences in the dose and frequency of parasites that individuals pick up from the environment. We find that the relationship between the initial contamination and the severity of an outbreak has a non-monotonous ‘wave-like’ pattern. This pattern can be explained by an increased heterogeneity in the host population caused by the infection process at the most severe outbreaks. We conclude that when dealing with these types of infection systems, models that are used to develop or evaluate control measures cannot neglect acquired heterogeneity in the host population traits that interact with the infection process.

scholarly journals Realistic Aspects of Simulation Models for Fake News Epidemics over Social Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Quintino Francesco Lotito ◽  
Davide Zanella ◽  
Paolo Casari
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Online Social Networks ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Epidemic Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Network Access ◽  
Spreading Process ◽  
Network Topologies ◽  
Access Patterns

The pervasiveness of online social networks has reshaped the way people access information. Online social networks make it common for users to inform themselves online and share news among their peers, but also favor the spreading of both reliable and fake news alike. Because fake news may have a profound impact on the society at large, realistically simulating their spreading process helps evaluate the most effective countermeasures to adopt. It is customary to model the spreading of fake news via the same epidemic models used for common diseases; however, these models often miss concepts and dynamics that are peculiar to fake news spreading. In this paper, we fill this gap by enriching typical epidemic models for fake news spreading with network topologies and dynamics that are typical of realistic social networks. Specifically, we introduce agents with the role of influencers and bots in the model and consider the effects of dynamical network access patterns, time-varying engagement, and different degrees of trust in the sources of circulating information. These factors concur with making the simulations more realistic. Among other results, we show that influencers that share fake news help the spreading process reach nodes that would otherwise remain unaffected. Moreover, we emphasize that bots dramatically speed up the spreading process and that time-varying engagement and network access change the effectiveness of fake news spreading.

scholarly journals Simulation modeling and analysis of primary health center operations

SIMULATION ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 003754972110309
Author(s):  
Mohd Shoaib ◽  
Varun Ramamohan
Keyword(s):  
Resource Utilization ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Analytical Approximations ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
Generic Modeling

We present discrete-event simulation models of the operations of primary health centers (PHCs) in the Indian context. Our PHC simulation models incorporate four types of patients seeking medical care: outpatients, inpatients, childbirth cases, and patients seeking antenatal care. A generic modeling approach was adopted to develop simulation models of PHC operations. This involved developing an archetype PHC simulation, which was then adapted to represent two other PHC configurations, differing in numbers of resources and types of services provided, encountered during PHC visits. A model representing a benchmark configuration conforming to government-mandated operational guidelines, with demand estimated from disease burden data and service times closer to international estimates (higher than observed), was also developed. Simulation outcomes for the three observed configurations indicate negligible patient waiting times and low resource utilization values at observed patient demand estimates. However, simulation outcomes for the benchmark configuration indicated significantly higher resource utilization. Simulation experiments to evaluate the effect of potential changes in operational patterns on reducing the utilization of stressed resources for the benchmark case were performed. Our analysis also motivated the development of simple analytical approximations of the average utilization of a server in a queueing system with characteristics similar to the PHC doctor/patient system. Our study represents the first step in an ongoing effort to establish the computational infrastructure required to analyze public health operations in India and can provide researchers in other settings with hierarchical health systems, a template for the development of simulation models of their primary healthcare facilities.

Public Health Control Measures in Response to Global Pandemics and Drug Resistance

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (S2) ◽  
pp. 49-56
Author(s):  
Polly J. Price
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
International Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Legal Authority ◽  
List Type ◽  
Resistant Disease ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Health Organization

These teaching materials explore the specific powers of governments to implement control measures in response to communicable disease, in two different contexts:The first context concerns global pandemic diseases. Relevant legal authority includes international law, World Health Organization governance and the International Health Regulations, and regulatory authority of nations.The second context is centered on U.S. law and concerns control measures for drug-resistant disease, using tuberculosis as an example. In both contexts, international and domestic, the point is to understand legal authority to address public health emergencies.

scholarly journals Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianshu Gu ◽  
Lishi Wang ◽  
Ning Xie ◽  
Xia Meng ◽  
Zhijun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Relationship

The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Study on Statistical Associations between Extroversion-Introversion Personality Traits and Anxiety in Different Stages of Lockdown during the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Podchara Soemphornwiwat ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
School Students ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Statistical Correlations ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
State Of Mind ◽  
The Given

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused several changes in the human state of mind, in particular adapting to the culture of the new normal while lockdown measures are implemented. This study explored the effect of the lockdown measure on the level of anxiety of high school students, comparing those identified as introverts and extroverts. Participants (N = 103) filled out the given survey, which determined that they were both introverts or extroverts and the level of anxiety that they had before, during, and after the lockdown caused by the pandemic. According to statistical analysis, the result showed that the level of anxiety perceived by those feeling the sense of extroversion was statistically higher than those with introversion, at the significance level of 95%. In addition, the analysis revealed that there was no correlation between extroverts and anxiety before, during, and after the lockdown measures. On the other hand, there were statistical correlations between the level of introversion and the level of anxiety in every stage of lockdown: before, during and after, indicating that the lockdowns due to the global pandemic did not affect extroverted people anxiety as much as it affected introverts. Moreover, it also showed that the level of anxiety of the introverts has become even more intensified even after the lockdown.

scholarly journals Modeling and analysis of the characteristics of SiC MOSFET

2021 ◽  
Vol 2125 (1) ◽  
pp. 012051
Author(s):  
Guoqing Qiu ◽  
Kedi Jiang ◽  
Shengyou Xu ◽  
Xin Yang ◽  
Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Circuit Simulation ◽  
Power Conversion ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Data Sheet ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Power Devices ◽  
Matlab Simulink ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Mathematical Processing

Abstract Although the superior performance of SiC MOSFET devices has beenvalidated by many studies, it is necessary to overcome many technical bottlenecks to make SiC MOSFET gradually replace Si-based power devices into the mainstream. In view of the current situation where the performance of SiC MOSFETs in power conversion devices cannot be evaluated well at this stage, it is necessary to carry out fine modeling of SiC MOSFETs and establish accurate simulation models. In this paper, the powerful mathematical processing capability and rich modules of Matlab/Simulink are used to build a SiC MOSFET model, and then the product data sheet is compared with the fitted data. The results show that the switching simulation waveforms are in general agreement with the data sheet waveforms, and the error is less than 7%. Verifing the accuracy of the model and reducing the difficulty of modeling, it provides a new idea for establishing the circuit simulation model of SiC MOSFET in Matlab/Simulink.

Wireless Grids

2016 ◽  
pp. 293-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariela J. Curiel H.
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phones ◽  
Job Scheduling ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Battery Life ◽  
Wireless Devices ◽  
Grid Resource ◽  
Job Management ◽  
Wireless Grids

Wireless grids extend the capability of Grid Computing by including a collection of wireless devices of diverse characteristics, such as sensors, mobile phones, laptops and special instruments. These new resources increase the power and accessibility of grids. Wireless devices can be grid resource consumers or grid resource providers. This chapter focuses in the use of mobile devices as resource providers. Some characteristics of these resources, such as limited CPU power, small screen, short battery life, and intermittent disconnection, are genuine challenges for the development of job management strategies. Our goal is to depict recent proposals in resource discovering, monitoring and job scheduling. The main contributions of the last five years will be described along the chapter. The highlights of the review includes: the use of agent technology; solutions oriented to applications composed of independent tasks and the lack of studies using either real platforms or real data in simulation models.

Dynamical Simulation Models of the Open Source Development Process

2008 ◽  
pp. 698-721
Author(s):  
I. P. Antoniades ◽  
I. Samoladas ◽  
I. Stamelos ◽  
L. Angelis
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
General Framework ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Dynamical Simulation ◽  
Closed Source ◽  
Free Open Source ◽  
Open Source Development

This chapter will discuss attempts to produce formal mathematical models for dynamical simulation of the development process of Free/Open Source Software (F/OSS) projects. First, a brief overview for simulation methods of closed source software development is given. Then, based on empirical facts reported in F/OSS case studies, we describe a general framework for F/OSS dynamical simulation models and discuss its similarities and differences to closed source software simulation. A specific F/OSS simulation model is introduced. The model is applied to the Apache project and to the gtk+ module of the GNOME project, and simulation outputs are compared to real data. The potential of formal F/OSS simulation models to turn into practical tools used by F/OSS coordinators to predict key project factors is demonstrated. Finally, issues for further research and efforts for improvement of this first-attempt model are discussed.

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