Climate change and crime: monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies and crime rates in St. Louis, MO 1990–2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Mares
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduous–boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (11) ◽  
pp. 2709-2718 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Goldblum ◽  
L S Rigg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Sugar Maple ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Northern Limit ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Forest Ecotone

We consider the implications of climate change on the future of the three dominant forest species, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), at the deciduous–boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada. Our analysis is based on individual species responses to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in light of modeled (general circulation model) monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. We then consider the tree species sensitivity to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period. Sugar maple, located at its northern limit in the study area, shows the greatest potential for increased growth rates under the predicted warming and altered precipitation regime. White spruce is likely to benefit less, while the understory dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming.

scholarly journals Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1105-1128 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Shea ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
P. Wagnon ◽  
C. Vincent ◽  
S. Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Glacier Change ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Koshi Basin ◽  
End Members

Abstract. In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century.

scholarly journals Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Lu-yu Liu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Man Zhang ◽  
Cheng-bang An
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Altitudinal Belts ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Effects of climatic factors on the net primary productivity in the source region of Yangtze River, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Yongqiang Wang ◽  
Jijun Xu ◽  
Zhiguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Primary Reason ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend

AbstractThe ecosystem of the Source Region of Yangtze River (SRYR) is highly susceptible to climate change. In this study, the spatial–temporal variation of NPP from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed, using outputs of Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model. Then the correlation characteristics of NPP and climatic factors were evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in the SRYR is 100.0 gC/m2 from 2000 to 2014, and it shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. The responses of NPP to altitude varied among the regions with the altitude below 3500 m, between 3500 to 4500 m and above 4500 m, which could be attributed to the altitude associated variations of climatic factors and vegetation types; (2) The total NPP of SRYR increased by 0.18 TgC per year in the context of the warmer and wetter climate during 2000–2014. The NPP was significantly and positively correlated with annual temperature and precipitation at interannual time scales. Temperature in February, March, May and September make greater contribution to NPP than that in other months. And precipitation in July played a more crucial role in influencing NPP than that in other months; (3) Climatic factors caused the NPP to increase in most of the SRYR. Impacts of human activities were concentrated mainly in downstream region and is the primary reason for declines in NPP.

The Life Cycle and Variability of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-63
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Polar Stratosphere ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract Motivated by the strong Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2019, a survey on the similar Antarctic weak polar events (WPV) is presented, including their life cycle, dynamics, seasonality, and climatic impacts. The Antarctic WPVs have a frequency of about four events per decade, with the 2002 event being the only major SSW. They show a similar life cycle to the SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere but have a longer duration. They are primarily driven by enhanced upward-propagating wavenumber 1 in the presence of a preconditioned polar stratosphere, i.e., a weaker and more contracted Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex. Antarctic WPVs occur mainly in the austral spring. Their early occurrence is preceded by an easterly anomaly in the middle and upper equatorial stratosphere besides the preconditioned polar stratosphere. The Antarctic WPVs increase the ozone concentration in the polar region and are associated with an advanced seasonal transition of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one week. Their frequency doubles after 2000 and is closely related to the advanced Antarctic stratospheric final warming in recent decades. The WPV-resultant negative phase of the southern annular mode descends to the troposphere and persists for about three months, leading to persistent hemispheric scale temperature and precipitation anomalies.

Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Cos ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Jury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Model Weighting

<p>The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.</p><p>To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference. </p><p>Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7ºC in summer and 2.7 and 5ºC in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2ºC in summer and 3.2 to 6.8ºC in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunli Zhao ◽  
Jianguo Chen ◽  
Peng Du ◽  
Hongyong Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Variation ◽  
Variation Characteristics ◽  
Established Fact ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

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