Modelling spatial variations of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): evidence from a global perspective

The spatiotemporal estimation of the risk and the international transmission of COVID-19: a global perspective

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-77242-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yuan-Chien Lin ◽

Wan-Ju Chi ◽

Yu-Ting Lin ◽

Chun-Yeh Lai

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

Relevant Information ◽

The United States ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Imported Case ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Exponential Decrease ◽

Risk Simulation ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Relationship

AbstractAn ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the spatiotemporal epidemic transmission, prediction, and risk are insufficient for COVID-19 but we urgently need relevant information globally. We have developed a novel two-stage simulation model to simulate the spatiotemporal changes in the number of cases and estimate the future worldwide risk. Simulation results show that if there is no specific medicine for it, it will form a global pandemic. Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, and the United States are the most vulnerable. The relationship between each country's vulnerability and days before the first imported case occurred shows an exponential decrease. We successfully predicted the outbreak of South Korea, Japan, and Italy in the early stages of the global pandemic based on the information before February 12, 2020. The development of the epidemic is now earlier than we expected. However, the trend of spread is similar to our estimation.

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The Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Dynamic Risk and the International Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Global Perspective

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3543583 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yuan-Chien Lin ◽

Wan-Ju Chi ◽

Yu-Ting Lin ◽

Chun-Yeh Lai

Keyword(s):

Global Perspective ◽

International Transmission ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Novel Coronavirus

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The Economic Impact of COVID-19 from a Global Perspective

Contemporary Economics ◽

10.5709/ce.1897-9254.436 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 64-75

Author(s):

Alam Khan ◽

Nadeem Khan ◽

Muhammad Shafiq

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Health Sector ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Global Trade ◽

The Novel ◽

Travel And Tourism ◽

Slowing Down ◽

Tourism Sector ◽

Novel Coronavirus

The world has been waging a fight against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) since December 2019. The current coronavirus crisis is a catastrophe affecting billions of families worldwide. So far, COVID-19 has wreaked havoc across the globe: by slowing down economic growth; decreasing global trade; hurting health sector; increasing unemployment and underemployment; reducing FDI and hurting the tourism sector. This study investigates the economic costs of COVID-19. By using descriptive analysis, this study shows that the major economic variables, such as economic growth, global trade, health sector, unemployment and underemployment, foreign direct investment and travel and tourism sector have significantly affected by COVID-19.

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Design of an Online Detection System for COVID-19 based on Attention Mechanism

Frontiers in Signal Processing ◽

10.22606/fsp.2021.51001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fan Liu ◽

◽

Wei Xiang ◽

Li Wang ◽

Jintao Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Acute Respiratory Infection ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Detection System ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Design Requirements ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Lung Ct

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory infection caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus infection that was discovered in some hospitals in Wuhan, China in December 2019. From a global perspective, COVID-19 epidemic is still in a pandemic period. Every country is taking timely preventive measures. Therefore, it is necessary to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) identification to assist radiologists in diagnosing COVID-19. This paper proposes a network model of dynamic self-attention machine for pneumonia images. The model adopts DPN92 and GCNet. It implements CR images and CT image classification of COVID-19. A COVID-19 detection system based on dynamic auto-attention machine is designed. The lung CT or CR images that meet the design requirements will be uploaded through the browser, and the background server will analyze and process the lung images, and finally output the detection category of the lung images.

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Age-structured Impact of Mitigation Strategies on COVID-19 Severity and Deaths in Kenya

10.21203/rs.3.rs-105797/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Samuel Mwalili ◽

Mark E. M. Kimathi ◽

Viona N. Ojiambo ◽

Duncan K. Gathungu ◽

Thomas N. O. Achia

Keyword(s):

School Closure ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Social Distancing ◽

First Case ◽

Age Structured ◽

October 17 ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Age Structured Model

Abstract Introduction: COVID-19, a coronavirus disease 2019, is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There have been a lot of attempts to model this pandemic from a global perspective. The Novel Coronavirus is still spreading quickly in several countries and the peak has not yet been reached in many countries. We developed age-structured model for describing the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya under different non-pharmaceutical interventions. The first case in Kenya was identified in March 13, 2020 with the pandemic increasing to 465 confirmed cases by end of 3rd May, 2020. We fitted an age-structured deterministic mathematical model in Kenyan context.Methods: We model the COVID-19 situation in Kenya using Age-structured Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered compartmental model. These compartments follow a cascade of the disease from the Susceptible to Exposed individuals who in return are either symptomatic or asymptomatic. The symptomatic depict mild signs, which can develop to severe symptoms warranting hospitalization or can otherwise recover. The severe cases can recover with some developing critical condition. The critical are admitted at intensive care units. The resulting age-dependent ordinary differential equations from the model are solved using fourth order Runge-Kutta methods. We controlled for school closure, social distancing and lockdown in terms of movement restrictionsResults: The model shows varying epidemic peak by age-structure and the mitigation scenarios. The peak dates for unmitigated (UM), the 45% NPI (M45) and School closure-curfew-partial lockdown NPI (SCL) are May 21st, October 17th and December 13th 2020, respectively. Their respective cumulative infections peaks are 43M, 24M and 25M. The daily reported severe cases, critical cases and death proportionately increased with age. Conclusions: The cumulative number of infections reduces greatly with introduction of school closure, social distancing and restricted movement in highly affected counties. The degree of COVID-19 severity increases with age. However, it is not immediately clear when these restrictions can be lifted.

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Impact of COVID-19 on Urology Practice: A Global Perspective and Snapshot Analysis

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm9061730 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 1730 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Stavros Gravas ◽

Damien Bolton ◽

Reynaldo Gomez ◽

Laurence Klotz ◽

Sanjay Kulkarni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southeast Asia ◽

Emergency Surgery ◽

Online Survey ◽

Elective Surgery ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Outpatient Clinics ◽

The Public ◽

Global Impact ◽

Outpatient Consultation ◽

Novel Coronavirus

The global impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on urology practice remains unknown. Self-selected urologists worldwide completed an online survey by the Société Internationale d’Urologie (SIU). A total of 2494 urologists from 76 countries responded, including 1161 (46.6%) urologists in an academic setting, 719 (28.8%) in a private practice, and 614 (24.6%) in the public sector. The largest proportion (1074 (43.1%)) were from Europe, with the remainder from East/Southeast Asia (441 (17.7%)), West/Southwest Asia (386 (15.5%)), Africa (209 (8.4%)), South America (198 (7.9%)), and North America (186 (7.5%)). An analysis of differences in responses was carried out by region and practice setting. The results reveal significant restrictions in outpatient consultation and non-emergency surgery, with nonspecific efforts towards additional precautions for preventing the spread of COVID-19 during emergency surgery. These restrictions were less notable in East/Southeast Asia. Urologists often bear the decision-making responsibility regarding access to elective surgery (40.3%). Restriction of both outpatient clinics and non-emergency surgery is considerable worldwide but is lower in East/Southeast Asia. Measures to control the spread of COVID-19 during emergency surgery are common but not specific. The pandemic has had a profound impact on urology practice. There is an urgent need to provide improved guidance for this and future pandemics.

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The spatiotemporal estimation of the dynamic risk and the international transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak: A global perspective

10.1101/2020.02.29.20029413 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yuan-Chien Lin ◽

Wan-Ju Chi ◽

Yu-Ting Lin ◽

Chun-Yeh Lai

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Human Movement ◽

Global Perspective ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

The World ◽

The Future ◽

Simulation Results ◽

Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAn ongoing novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia infection outbreak called COVID-19 started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. It both spread rapidly to all provinces in China and started spreading around the world quickly through international human movement from January 2020. Currently, the spatiotemporal epidemic transmission patterns, prediction models, and possible risk analysis for the future are insufficient for COVID-19 but we urgently need relevant information, particularly from the global perspective.We have developed a novel two-stage simulation model to simulate the spatiotemporal changes in the number of COVID-19 cases and estimate the future worldwide risk. Based on the connectivity of countries to China and the country’s medical and epidemic prevention capabilities, different scenarios are generated to analyze the possible transmission throughout the world and use this information to evaluate each country’s vulnerability to and the dynamic risk of COVID-19.Countries’ vulnerability to the COVID-19 outbreak from China is calculated for 63 countries around the world. Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan are the most vulnerable areas. The relationship between each country’s vulnerability and days before the first imported case occurred shows a very high exponential decrease. The cumulative number of cases in each country also has a linear relationship with vulnerability, which can compare and quantify the initial epidemic prevention capabilities to various countries’ management strategies. In total, 1,000 simulation results of future cases around the world are generated for the spatiotemporal risk assessment. According to the simulation results of this study, if there is no specific medicine for it, it will likely form a global pandemic. This method can be used as a preliminary risk assessment of the spatiotemporal spread for a new global epidemic. * Note: This study was completed on February 15, 2020.

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Convalescent Plasma Transfusion for the Treatment of COVID-19 in Adults: A Global Perspective

Viruses ◽

10.3390/v13050849 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 849

Author(s):

Saly Kanj ◽

Basem Al-Omari

Keyword(s):

Literature Search ◽

Randomized Clinical Trials ◽

Therapeutic Option ◽

Global Perspective ◽

World Population ◽

Plasma Transfusion ◽

Supply Chain Logistics ◽

One Year ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

More than one year into the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, healthcare systems across the world continue to be overwhelmed with soaring daily cases. The treatment spectrum primarily includes ventilation support augmented with repurposed drugs and/or convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) from recovered COVID-19 patients. Despite vaccine variants being recently developed and administered in several countries, challenges in global supply chain logistics limit their timely availability to the wider world population, particularly in developing countries. Given the measured success of conventional CPT in treating several infections over the past decade, recent studies have reported its effectiveness in decreasing the duration and severity of COVID-19 symptoms. In this review, we conduct a literature search of published studies investigating the use of CPT to treat COVID-19 patients from January 2020 to January 2021. The literature search identified 181 records of which 39 were included in this review. A random-effects model was used to aggregate data across studies, and mortality rates of 17 vs. 32% were estimated for the CPT and control patient groups, respectively, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.49. The findings indicate that CPT shows potential in reducing the severity and duration of COVID-19 symptoms. However, early intervention (preferably within 3 days), recruitment of donors, and plasma potency introduce major challenges for its scaled-up implementation. Given the low number of existing randomized clinical trials (RCTs, four with a total of 319 patients), unanticipated risks to CPT recipients are highlighted and discussed. Nevertheless, CPT remains a promising COVID-19 therapeutic option that merits internationally coordinated RCTs to achieve a scientific risk–benefit consensus.

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