scholarly journals Resource allocation procedures for unknown sales response functions with additive disturbances

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Gahler ◽  
Harald Hruschka
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
Random Disturbances ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Sales Response ◽  
Exploration Exploitation ◽  
Better Than

AbstractWe develop a modified exploration–exploitation algorithm which allocates a fixed resource (e.g., a fixed budget) to several units with the objective to attain maximum sales. This algorithm does not require knowledge of the form and the parameters of sales response functions and is able to cope with additive random disturbances. Note that additive random disturbances, as a rule, are a component of sales response functions estimated by econometric methods. We compare the developed algorithm to three rules of thumb which in practice are often used to solve this allocation problem. The comparison is based on a Monte Carlo simulation for 384 experimental constellations, which are obtained from four function types, four procedures (including our algorithm), similar/varied elasticities, similar/varied saturations, high/low budgets, and three disturbance levels. A statistical analysis of the simulation results shows that across a multi-period planning horizon the algorithm performs better than the rules of thumb considered with respect to two sales-related criteria.

scholarly journals Electromagnetic calorimeter of the trigger system for the COMET experiment.

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-109
Author(s):  
D. V. Shoukavy ◽  
D. N. Grigoriev ◽  
L. B. Epshteyn ◽  
Yu. V. Yudin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Electron Beam ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Electromagnetic Calorimeter ◽  
Trigger System ◽  
Signal Processing Algorithm ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Background Events ◽  
Better Than

In this paper, on the basis of the Monte-Carlo simulation results a signal processing algorithm for determination of the energy deposited in real time by incident particles has been developed and implemented in the created electronics prototype of the trigger system for an electromagnetic calorimeter of the COMET experiment. The energy thresholds for trigger cells are determined which make it possible to select signal events – an electron with a momentum of 105 MeV/c, and significantly reduce a rate of background events. The electronics prototype of the trigger system has been verified by testbench measurements and electron beam experiments. The obtained results satisfy the key requirement of the calorimeter – the energy resolution in real time is better than 5 % for the signal electron energy.

Coping with uncertainties in integrated urban water management

1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 265-269
Author(s):  
Govert D. Geldof
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Urban Water Management ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Good Design ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
Simulation Results

In the practice of integrated water management we meet complexity, subjectivity and uncertainties. Uncertainties come into play when new urban water management techniques are applied. The art of a good design is not to reduce uncertainties as much as possible, but to find the middle course between cowardice and recklessness. This golden mean represents bravery. An interdisciplinary approach is needed to reach consensus. Calculating uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation results may be helpful.

scholarly journals Simulation and Nonlinearity Optimization of a High-Pressure Sensor

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (16) ◽  
pp. 4419
Author(s):  
Ting Li ◽  
Haiping Shang ◽  
Weibing Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
Pressure Sensor ◽  
Pressure Sensors ◽  
Original Model ◽  
Ansys Software ◽  
Nonlinear Error ◽  
Sensor Model ◽  
Optimized Model ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Better Than

A pressure sensor in the range of 0–120 MPa with a square diaphragm was designed and fabricated, which was isolated by the oil-filled package. The nonlinearity of the device without circuit compensation is better than 0.4%, and the accuracy is 0.43%. This sensor model was simulated by ANSYS software. Based on this model, we simulated the output voltage and nonlinearity when piezoresistors locations change. The simulation results showed that as the stress of the longitudinal resistor (RL) was increased compared to the transverse resistor (RT), the nonlinear error of the pressure sensor would first decrease to about 0 and then increase. The theoretical calculation and mathematical fitting were given to this phenomenon. Based on this discovery, a method for optimizing the nonlinearity of high-pressure sensors while ensuring the maximum sensitivity was proposed. In the simulation, the output of the optimized model had a significant improvement over the original model, and the nonlinear error significantly decreased from 0.106% to 0.0000713%.

scholarly journals Injection-rolling nozzle in an imprint system with continuous injection direct rolling for ultra-thin microstructure guide light plate

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 168781402110112
Author(s):  
Yan Lou ◽  
Kewei Chen ◽  
Xiangwei Zhou ◽  
Yanfeng Feng
Keyword(s):  
Flow Velocity ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Light Transmittance ◽  
Velocity Difference ◽  
Orthogonal Experiments ◽  
Width Direction ◽  
Direct Rolling ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Continuous Injection ◽  
Better Than

A novel Injection-rolling Nozzle (IRN) in an imprint system with continuous injection direct rolling (CIDR) for ultra-thin microstructure polymer guide light plates was developed to achieve uniform flow velocity and temperature at the width direction of the cavity exit. A novel IRN cavity was designed. There are eight of feature parameters of cavity were optimized by orthogonal experiments and numerical simulation. Results show that the flow velocity at the width direction of the IRN outlet can reach uniformity, which is far better than that of traditional cavity. The smallest flow velocity difference and temperature difference was 0.6 mm/s and 0.24 K, respectively. The superior performance of the IRN was verified through a CIDR experiment. Several 0.35-mm thick, 340-mm wide, and 10-m long microstructural Polymethyl Methacrylate (PMMA) guide light plates were manufactured. The average filling rates of the microgrooves with the aspect ratio 1:3 reached above 93%. The average light transmittance is 88%.

scholarly journals Cheating at Craps

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
Andrea Marin ◽  
Carey Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Analytical Model ◽  
Quantitative Evaluation ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Analytical Modeling ◽  
The World ◽  
Simulation Results

Craps is a simple dice game that is popular in casinos around the world. While the rules for Craps, and its mathematical analysis, are reasonably straightforward, this paper instead focuses on the best ways to cheat at Craps, by using loaded (biased) dice. We use both analytical modeling and simulation modeling to study this intriguing dice game. Our modeling results show that biasing a die away from the value 1 or towards the value 5 lead to the best (and least detectable) cheating strategies, and that modest bias on two loaded dice can increase the winning probability above 50%. Our Monte Carlo simulation results provide validation for our analytical model, and also facilitate the quantitative evaluation of other scenarios, such as heterogeneous or correlated dice.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Different Data-driven Procedures to Determine the Bunching Window

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-293
Author(s):  
Vincent Dekker ◽  
Karsten Schweikert
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Taxable Income ◽  
Counterfactual Models ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Second Procedure

In this article, we compare three data-driven procedures to determine the bunching window in a Monte Carlo simulation of taxable income. Following the standard approach in the empirical bunching literature, we fit a flexible polynomial model to a simulated income distribution, excluding data in a range around a prespecified kink. First, we propose to implement methods for the estimation of structural breaks to determine a bunching regime around the kink. A second procedure is based on Cook’s distances aiming to identify outlier observations. Finally, we apply the iterative counterfactual procedure proposed by Bosch, Dekker, and Strohmaier which evaluates polynomial counterfactual models for all possible bunching windows. While our simulation results show that all three procedures are fairly accurate, the iterative counterfactual procedure is the preferred method to detect the bunching window when no prior information about the true size of the bunching window is available.

scholarly journals The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Gutin ◽  
Tomohiro Hirano ◽  
Sung-Ha Hwang ◽  
Philip R. Neary ◽  
Alexis Akira Toda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Simulation Results

AbstractHow does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

Should a hotter paramagnet transform quicker to a ferromagnet? Monte Carlo simulation results for Ising model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subir K Das ◽  
Nalina Vadakkayil
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Ising Model ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Heating Up

For quicker formation of ice, before inserting inside a refrigerator, heating up of a body of water can be beneficial. We report first observation of a counterpart of this intriguing...

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Modeling and Design of Photon Energy Attenuation Layers for >10× Quantum Yield Enhancement in Si-Based Hard X-ray Detectors

Instruments ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Eldred Lee ◽  
Kaitlin M. Anagnost ◽  
Zhehui Wang ◽  
Michael R. James ◽  
Eric R. Fossum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Quantum Yield ◽  
Photon Energy ◽  
High Efficiency ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Yield Enhancement ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Conversion Efficiencies

High-energy (>20 keV) X-ray photon detection at high quantum yield, high spatial resolution, and short response time has long been an important area of study in physics. Scintillation is a prevalent method but limited in various ways. Directly detecting high-energy X-ray photons has been a challenge to this day, mainly due to low photon-to-photoelectron conversion efficiencies. Commercially available state-of-the-art Si direct detection products such as the Si charge-coupled device (CCD) are inefficient for >10 keV photons. Here, we present Monte Carlo simulation results and analyses to introduce a highly effective yet simple high-energy X-ray detection concept with significantly enhanced photon-to-electron conversion efficiencies composed of two layers: a top high-Z photon energy attenuation layer (PAL) and a bottom Si detector. We use the principle of photon energy down conversion, where high-energy X-ray photon energies are attenuated down to ≤10 keV via inelastic scattering suitable for efficient photoelectric absorption by Si. Our Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that a 10–30× increase in quantum yield can be achieved using PbTe PAL on Si, potentially advancing high-resolution, high-efficiency X-ray detection using PAL-enhanced Si CMOS image sensors.

Simulation on Effect of Five Kinds of Belt Structures on Tire Performance

2012 ◽  
Vol 501 ◽  
pp. 151-155
Author(s):  
Yong Liu ◽  
Ge Zhang ◽  
Hua Yan ◽  
Yu Mei Ding ◽  
Wei Min Yang
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Molding Process ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Better Than

In this article, three kinds of belt named B, C and D type are invented, then their main performance are compared with the other two kinds of belt structures introduced in previous papers. Simulation results showed that B and D-type belts are better than the other three. Comparatively the latter needs less material, its molding process is easier, and the tire body is lighter than B type tire, so in general it can be considered that D-type belt is the best among the five kinds of belt structures.

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