Identifying resilient restoration targets: mapping and forecasting habitat suitability for Castanea dentata in Eastern USA under different climate-change scenarios

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

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Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11050530 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 530 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽

Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽

Armando López-Santos ◽

Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽

Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

The United States ◽

Economic Importance ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

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Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10080705 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 705 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Ying Guo ◽

Jing Guo ◽

Xin Shen ◽

Guibin Wang ◽

Tongli Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Field Test ◽

Ginkgo Biloba ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Leaf Traits ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Living Fossil ◽

Model Predictions ◽

The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

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Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.12308 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e12308

Author(s):

Hongyan Gao ◽

Long Wang ◽

Jun Ma ◽

Xiang Gao ◽

Jianhua Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Current Distribution ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Southern China ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

African Horse Sickness ◽

Vector Surveillance ◽

Culicoides Imicola

Background African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus. Methods The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios. Results The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

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Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

Environmental Management ◽

10.1007/s00267-014-0336-5 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 55 (4) ◽

pp. 836-856 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Kelly A. Kearney ◽

Mark Butler ◽

Robert Glazer ◽

Christopher R. Kelble ◽

Joseph E. Serafy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Florida Bay ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios

Veterinary Parasitology ◽

10.1016/j.vetpar.2017.07.001 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 243 ◽

pp. 226-234 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

K.E. Lawrence ◽

S.R. Summers ◽

A.C.G. Heath ◽

A.M.J. McFadden ◽

D.J. Pulford ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Zealand ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Haemaphysalis Longicornis ◽

Rule Based ◽

Future Projections ◽

Envelope Model

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Role of Maximum Entropy and Citizen Science to Study Habitat Suitability of Jacobin Cuckoo in Different Climate Change Scenarios

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi10070463 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 463

Author(s):

Priyanka Singh ◽

Sameer Saran ◽

Sultan Kocaman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Maximum Entropy ◽

Citizen Science ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Bird Species ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

Recent advancements in spatial modelling and mapping methods have opened up new horizons for monitoring the migration of bird species, which have been altered due to the climate change. The rise of citizen science has also aided the spatiotemporal data collection with associated attributes. The biodiversity data from citizen observatories can be employed in machine learning algorithms for predicting suitable environmental conditions for species’ survival and their future migration behaviours. In this study, different environmental variables effective in birds’ migrations were analysed, and their habitat suitability was assessed for future understanding of their responses in different climate change scenarios. The Jacobin cuckoo (Clamator jacobinus) was selected as the subject species, since their arrival to India has been traditionally considered as a sign for the start of the Indian monsoon season. For suitability predictions in current and future scenarios, maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling was carried out with environmental variables and species occurrences observed in India and Africa. For modelling, the correlation test was performed on the environmental variables (bioclimatic, precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, wind and elevation). The results showed that precipitation-related variables played a significant role in suitability, and through reclassified habitat suitability maps, it was observed that the suitable areas of India and Africa might decrease in future climatic scenarios (SSPs 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) of 2030 and 2050. In addition, the suitability and unsuitability areas were calculated (in km2) to observe the subtle changes in the ecosystem. Such climate change studies can support biodiversity research and improve the agricultural economy.

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Assessing the Present and Future Habitat Suitability of Caligus rogercresseyi (Boxshall and Bravo, 2000) for Salmon Farming in Southern Chile

Frontiers in Veterinary Science ◽

10.3389/fvets.2020.615039 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

Author(s):

Manuel Lepe-Lopez ◽

Joaquín Escobar-Dodero ◽

Natalia Zimin-Veselkoff ◽

Claudio Azat ◽

Fernando O. Mardones

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Spatial Ecology ◽

Salinity Range ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Southern Chile ◽

Entire Area ◽

Future Projections ◽

Habitat Suitability Models ◽

Salmon Farming

The sea louse (Caligus rogercresseyi) is the most relevant parasite for the farmed salmon industry in Chile, the second largest producer worldwide. Although spatial patterns of C. rogercresseyi have been addressed from data obtained from established monitoring and surveillance programs, studies on its spatial ecology are limited. A wide geographic distribution of C. rogercresseyi is presumed in Chile; however, how this species could potentially be distributed in space is unknown. Our study presents an analysis of the habitat suitability for C. rogercresseyi in the entire area occupied by marine sites of salmon farms in Chile. Habitat suitability modeling was used to explore the likelihood of species spatial occurrence based on environmental characteristics. Due to the expanding salmon industry in southern Chile, we studied C. rogercresseyi habitat suitability models for present (average of 2005–2010) and two future projections (2050 and 2100) under different climate change scenarios. Models were constructed with the maxent algorithm using a large database of spatial C. rogercresseyi occurrences from the Chilean fisheries health authority and included 23 environmental variables obtained from the Ocean Rasters for Analysis of Climate and Environment (Bio-ORACLE). Habitat suitability models indicated that water temperature, water salinity, and current velocity of waters were the most important characteristics limiting C. rogercresseyi distribution in southern Chile. Habitat suitability models for current climate indicated a heterogeneous pattern with C. rogercresseyi being present in waters with temperature range 12.12–7.08°C (sd = 0.65), salinity range 33.7–25.5 pss (sd = 1.73), and current water velocity range 0.23–0.01 m−1 (sd = 0.02). Predictions for future projections in year 2050 and year 2100 suggest new clumped dispersion of the environmental conditions for C. rogercresseyi establishment. Our results suggest complexity and a wide dispersion of the biogeographic distribution of the C. rogercresseyi habitat suitability with potential implications for control strategies and environmental issues for salmon farming in Chile. Further investigations are required into C. rogercresseyi distribution in southern Chile considering the possible effect of climate change.

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Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.3104 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. e3104 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Karen Rasmussen ◽

Jakob Thyrring ◽

Robert Muscarella ◽

Finn Borchsenius

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Health Impact ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Future Health ◽

Baltic Countries

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosiaspp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

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Shifts in habitat suitability and the conservation status of the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita under climate change scenarios

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605317000503 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 53 (2) ◽

pp. 356-367 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Magdalena Bennett ◽

Pablo A. Marquet ◽

Claudio Sillero-Zubiri ◽

Jorgelina Marino

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Peruvian Andes ◽

The Future ◽

Species Specific ◽

Lagidium Viscacia

AbstractOrganisms adapted to life at high elevations are particularly threatened by climate change, which can cause them to become isolated on mountain tops, yet their responses may vary according to their position in the food chain and their ecological flexibility. Predicting the future distributions of such organisms requires fine-tuned species-specific models. Building on a previous ecological niche model, we explored shifts in the suitability of habitats for the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita, and assessed how these will be represented within existing protected areas in the future. Using a robust set of presence records and corrected climate surfaces, we applied the Maxent algorithm to model habitat suitability for this carnivore and for its preferred prey, the mountain viscacha Lagidium viscacia. Our predictions indicate that the areas climatically suitable for Andean cats could contract by up to 30% by 2080 under the most pessimistic scenario, with an overall upwards shift of 225 m and a polewards displacement of 98–180 km. The predicted range contraction was more pronounced in the species’ core range, in the Bolivian and Peruvian Andes, whereas suitable conditions may increase in the southern range in Patagonia. Bolivia and Peru are predicted to suffer the most marked decline in habitat representativeness within protected areas. The southern range appears to be less vulnerable to climate change, offering opportunities for the conservation of this genetically distinct population. We discuss the value and limitations of using species distribution modelling to assess changes in the potential distribution and conservation status of this and other Andean species.

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