Determination of a safety criterion via risk assessment of marine accidents based on a Markov model with five states and MCMC simulation and on three risk factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 109000
Author(s):  
Min Hyok Jon ◽  
Yun Pyong Kim ◽  
Uk Choe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Safety Criterion ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
Marine Accidents

scholarly journals AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS BASED RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR PPP HYDROPOWER INVESTMENTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 268-277
Author(s):  
Emre Caner Akcay
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Risk Rating ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
Network Process

The number of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has gone up especially in developing countries. The risk assessment of PPP projects is essential in ensuring project success. The objective of this study is to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) based risk assessment model for hydropower investments, and a tool to facilitate quantification of risk ratings based on this model. The results show that the three most important risk factors that affect the overall risk rating of a PPP hydropower investment are legal risks, contractor/subcontractor risks, and operator risks. In addition, the three most important risk clusters were identified as stakeholders, government requirements, and resources, whereas market was the least important cluster. The tool that measures the risk rating of a PPP of hydropower project was tested on ten real cases, and satisfactory results were obtained in terms of its predictive capability. The contributions of this research include (1) identification of the risk factors and clusters of factors associated with PPP hydropower investments; (2) determination of the priority of each risk factor and cluster; (3) development a tool that guides the investors through the risk assessment of PPP hydropower investments.

scholarly journals The risk as a measure of ecological safety in watercourses

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska ◽  
Justyna Hachoł
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Ecological Risk Assessment ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Ecological Safety ◽  
Water Ecosystem ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Ecological Risk Factors

Abstract The study analyses possibilities of PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) usage in ecological risk assessment conducted within technical risk assessment. The analysis was performed based on results obtained in a study performed between 2007 and 2013 in natural and modified lowland Lower Silesian watercourses. The object of the study was communities of hydromacrophytes being good indicators of the water ecosystem quality. The research constituted a base for the determination of ecological risk factors i.e. the probability of hazard occurrence and its effects. It allowed for the acquisition of the risk classification matrix which included three levels - low, medium and high.

Methods of risk assessment in forecasting the consequences of accidents at pipeline transport facilities

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 663-673
Author(s):  
Vladislav N. Slepnev ◽  
◽  
Alexander F. Maksimenko ◽  
Elena V. Glebova ◽  
Alla Т. Volokhina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Expert Evaluation ◽  
Main Pipeline ◽  
Pipeline Transport ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Expert Evaluation Method

The choice of risk assessment procedure is one of the essential stages of efficient structuring of processes on prevention, localization and elimination of the consequences of accidents at main pipeline transport facilities. The authors analyzed themed publications and regulatory documents, governing procedures of risk assessment and forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents, and defined main problems in this area. Procedure for the risk assessment of accidents at main pipeline facilities was developed, the basis of which is the expert evaluation method. The procedure includes the determination of the main criteria for the assessment the probability of accident initiation and development and the evaluation of the severity of its consequences, an expert evaluation of criteria significance, their classification, and creation of a rating for hazardous pipeline sections. The application of the procedure application allows to specify the list of facilities that require high priority forecasting of accidents consequences, thus to optimize the distribution of resources and the overall increase of efficiency in planning while defining forces and special technical devices, necessary for containment and rectification of emergencies. Expert evaluation method application allows considering the specifics of certain enterprises, their technical and technological peculiarities, thereby increasing forecasting accuracy.

Determination of the prevalence of helicobacter pylori oral infection in smoking patients with chronic generalized periodontitis on the background of chronic hyperacidal gastritis during treatment

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 50-54
Author(s):  
O. L. Zolotukhina ◽  
◽  
Ju. G. Romanova ◽  
O. V. Maslov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Helicobacter Pylori ◽  
Oral Cavity ◽  
Urease Activity ◽  
Rapid Test ◽  
Oral Infection ◽  
Helicobacter Pylori Infection ◽  
Natural Origin ◽  
Periodontal Tissues

Diseases of periodontal tissues occupy one of the leading positions among modern dental problems, namely the multifactorial nature of these diseases. In modern dental science, the issue of the development of periodontal pathology against the background of somatic pathology and risk factors remains relevant. Pathology of periodontal tissues in 68–90 % of cases is accompanied by chronic diseases of the gastrointestinal tract. Today, there is no doubt that Helicobacter pylori infection can be present in the biotopes of the oral cavity and can affect the course of periodontal pathology. As you know, smoking is one of the important risk factors for the development of inflammatory-dystrophic diseases of periodontal tissues, which can aggravate the course of the latter. The purpose of the work is to determine the prevalence of oral Helicobacter pylori infection in tobacco-dependent patients with chronic generalized periodontitis on the background of chronic hyperacid gastritis during treatment. Patients who received the proposed therapeutic and prophylactic complex (ultraphonophoresis procedures with the created gel «Apisan», and probiotic drug BioGaia ProDentis and angioprotective drug of natural origin — Detralex) showed a gradual decrease in the level of total urease activity and, as a consequence, a decrease the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in the oral cavity according to the results of a urease rapid test with material from the oral cavity, both in the presence of a risk factor — smoking, and in its absence. The use of the proposed therapeutic and prophylactic complex proved to be effective in reducing the prevalence of oral Helicobacter pylori infection in smoking patients and patients who do not smoke, with chronic generalized periodontitis against the background of chronic hyperacidal gastritis associated with Helicobacter pylori.

Fall Risk Assessment and Risk Factors of Inpatients in Armed Forces Hospital

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Kyung-Wan Seo ◽  
Jeong-Ok Lee ◽  
Sun-Young Choi ◽  
Min-Jung Park
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Fall Risk Assessment

Diagnostic scales for suicide risk assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-79
Author(s):  
L. Gelda ◽  
L. Nesterovich
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
General Medicine ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Suicide Risk Assessment ◽  
Research And Practice ◽  
Psychometric Instruments ◽  
High Incidence

The problem of adequate diagnostic tools use for suicide risk assessment т medical research and practice is of extreme importance because of the high incidence of suicide in the population of psychotic patients and the high vulnerability of the latter to the known risk factors. The article provides ап overview of the existing psychometric instruments (scales) used to assess the risk of suicide in psychiatry as well as in general medicine.

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