On Pricing Unconventional Prepaid Forward Contracts: Evidence from en primeur Fine Wine

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 400-408
Author(s):  
Marcin Czupryna ◽  
Michał Jakubczyk ◽  
Paweł Oleksy
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Price Dispersion ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Forward Contracts ◽  
Forward Contract ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Cost Of Carry ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractAn en primeur agreement is an unconventional forward contract. In this article, we provide a new conceptual framework for analyzing the properties of en primeur prices based on the cost of carry approach. The results, based upon Bayesian modeling, indicate that the cost of carry increases up to 0.9598 when en primeur and bottled wines are traded in parallel. Moreover, our findings confirm that price dispersion around the mean value is greater for en primeur wines (22.42%) than for standard bottled wines (8.2%) traded after the sale of en primeur wines has ended. (JEL Classifications: G12, G15, L66, Q02)

scholarly journals Epidemiological Comparison between Microsurgery and Embolization of Aneurysms in Brazil from 2010 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-174
Author(s):  
Matheus De Andrade Bannach ◽  
Mariana Lima Caetano ◽  
Caio Átila Saloio ◽  
José Édison Da Silva Cavalcante ◽  
Helioenai De Sousa Alencar
Keyword(s):  
Health Information System ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Endovascular Coiling ◽  
P Value ◽  
International Literature ◽  
Surgical Clipping ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Cost

Introduction: Intracerebral Aneurysms are important causes of morbidity and mortality, with mortality rate of up to 50%. Endovascular coiling was introduced as an alternative to surgical clipping, and has shown better results with a reduction in morbidity and mortality risk of 6-9%. Objective: To characterize the two types of treatment for intracerebral aneurysms within Brazilian scenario, and to compare the results with the international literature. Methods: An analytic observational study using data from the SIH / DATASUS (National Health Information System) in the period of 2010-2015. Results: The total number of hospitalizations decreased, with a 38.3% decrease in clipping and 18.4% in embolizations. The mean value of embolization was significantly higher, however, presenting a downward trend (R$ 22,011.37 in 2010 to R$ 15,607.18 in 2015), while the value of microsurgery increased (R$ 7,022.31 to R$ 8,645.28, respectively). Microsurgery was a risk factor for death (p-value <0.01). Conclusion: It has been shown that the international trend of transition from clipping to embolization did not occur in Brazil. The cost of embolization is much higher. For the authors, the death outcome contrasts with literature due to confounding factors that act within limitations of the study.

scholarly journals The difference between the magnetic diurnal variations on ordinary and quiet days at Kew Observatory

1915 ◽  
Vol 91 (630) ◽  
pp. 370-381
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Force ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Magnetic Elements ◽  
New Material ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Grant ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Large Disturbance

§1. While investigating the nature of the diurnal inequality of the magnetic elements at Kew Observatory, I have discovered a somewhat remarkable relationship between the inequalities derived respectively from quiet days and from ordinary days ( i. e. all days expert those of large disturbance). The period whose records were employed consisted of the 11 years 1890 to 1900. During that period five days were selected for each month by the Astronomer Royal as typical of quiet conditions. An analysis of the diurnal inequalities at Kew on these days was given in an earlier paper. Use is also made of the diurnal inequalities derived from 209 disturbed days, being the days of principal disturbance from 1890 to 1900. The new material employed consists of diurnal inequalities based on all the days of the 11 years, excluding the 209 highly disturbed days but including the quiet days. The cost of measuring the curves was defrayed by a grand from the Government Grant Committee. The diurnal variation in the horizontal components of magnetic force is often advantageously studied by considering the vector which represents the force to whose action the departure from the mean value for the day may be ascribed.

Qualification of S-N Curve by Experiments: Estimation of Survival Probability for a Low Number of Experiments

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Thibaux ◽  
Cristina Tonesi
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Fatigue Testing ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Load Level ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Survival Estimation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Cost

Due to the cost of fatigue testing, qualification of new weld details or improved welding techniques is often performed by comparing the experimental results with a mean S-N curve. The experimental dataset is considered to qualify for a given S-N curve if the mean of the log of the experimental results is larger than the mean of the chosen S-N curve plus an interval depending on the chosen confidence level. The confidence level is generally chosen arbitrary high, typically 75% or 90%. The survival estimation does not take into account the risk incurred by the fact that the actual mean has a probability of 25% or 10% of being lower than the theoretical S-N curve. In the present paper, we propose a different methodology based on the design S-N curve. The probability of failure for a given load level is computed by combining the probability of failure considering the mean value of the S-N curve, and the probability of this mean value. Thanks to the present method it is possible to estimate the probability of failure without making an assumption on the confidence level, which reduces the arbitrary during the estimation of the test results, particularly when the number of experimental results is limited.

scholarly journals Beating your Neighbor to the Berry Patch

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan R. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Mixed Strategy ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Pure Strategy ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Mixed Strategies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable

AbstractThis paper studies the situation in which multiple foragers compete for a resource that ripens (or otherwise improves) gradually. There is a unique mixed Nash Equilibrium (NE), which is stable against pure-strategy invaders provided that either the cost of visiting the resource or number of competitors is large. This equilibrium is not evolutionarily stable, however, because mixed strategies that are similar to the NE can invade.This mixed-strategy instability was not observed in computer simulations. The process converged to the neighborhood of the NE whenever the parameters implied stablity against pure-strategy invaders. Experiments with human subjects also failed to exhibit this mixed-strategy instability. After an initial period of familiarization, the behavior of human subjects was close to that predicted by the NE.This suggests that the NE may be useful as a prediction of behavior, and when that it true, strange conclusions emerge: the larger the number of foragers, the less likely it is that the resource will be harvested at all, and the greater the mean value of that resource when it is harvested.

Long-period modulated superstructures in Pd-12.5 at.%Ce and Pd-15 at.%Ce alloys

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 164-165
Author(s):  
Noriyuki Kuwano ◽  
Masaru Itakura ◽  
Kensuke Oki
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Heavy Elements ◽  
Arc Furnace ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Ultra High Purity ◽  
Heat Treated ◽  
Atomic Scattering ◽  
The Mean

Pd-Ce alloys exhibit various anomalies in physical properties due to mixed valences of Ce, and the anomalies are thought to be strongly related with the crystal structures. Since Pd and Ce are both heavy elements, relative magnitudes of (fcc-fpd) are so small compared with <f> that superlattice reflections, even if any, sometimes cannot be detected in conventional x-ray powder patterns, where fee and fpd are atomic scattering factors of Ce and Pd, and <f> the mean value in the crystal. However, superlattices in Pd-Ce alloys can be analyzed by electron microscopy, thanks to the high detectability of electron diffraction. In this work, we investigated modulated superstructures in alloys with 12.5 and 15.0 at.%Ce.Ingots of Pd-Ce alloys were prepared in an arc furnace under atmosphere of ultra high purity argon. The disc specimens cut out from the ingots were heat-treated in vacuum and electrothinned to electron transparency by a jet method.

Partition Coefficient Ratios and Tumour Perfusion Studied with 85mKr and 133Xe

1987 ◽  
Vol 26 (06) ◽  
pp. 253-257
Author(s):  
M. Mäntylä ◽  
J. Perkkiö ◽  
J. Heikkonen
Keyword(s):  
Partition Coefficient ◽  
Partition Coefficients ◽  
Regional Blood Flow ◽  
Blood Perfusion ◽  
Compartmental Analysis ◽  
Malignant Tumour ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Perfusion Rate ◽  
Biological Variables ◽  
The Mean

The relative partition coefficients of krypton and xenon, and the regional blood flow in 27 superficial malignant tumour nodules in 22 patients with diagnosed tumours were measured using the 85mKr- and 133Xe-clearance method. In order to minimize the effect of biological variables on the measurements the radionuclides were injected simultaneously into the tumour. The distribution of the radiotracers was assumed to be in equilibrium at the beginning of the experiment. The blood perfusion was calculated by fitting a two-exponential function to the measuring points. The mean value of the perfusion rate calculated from the xenon results was 13 ± 10 ml/(100 g-min) [range 3 to 38 ml/(100 g-min)] and from the krypton results 19 ± 11 ml/(100 g-min) [range 5 to 45 ml/(100 g-min)]. These values were obtained, if the partition coefficients are equal to one. The equations obtained by using compartmental analysis were used for the calculation of the relative partition coefficient of krypton and xenon. The partition coefficient of krypton was found to be slightly smaller than that of xenon, which may be due to its smaller molecular weight.

Detection of Soluble Fibrin Monomer Complexes in Blood by Means of Protamine Sulphate Test

1968 ◽  
Vol 20 (01/02) ◽  
pp. 044-049 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Lipiński ◽  
K Worowski
Keyword(s):  
Human Subjects ◽  
Coronary Thrombosis ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Healthy Human ◽  
Protamine Sulphate ◽  
Soluble Fibrin ◽  
Fibrin Monomer ◽  
Dog Plasma ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Precipitable Protein

SummaryIn the present paper described is a simple test for detecting soluble fibrin monomer complexes (SFMC) in blood. The test consists in mixing 1% protamine sulphate with diluted oxalated plasma or serum and reading the optical density at 6190 Å. In experiments with dog plasma, enriched with soluble fibrin complexes, it was shown that OD read in PS test is proportional to the amount of fibrin recovered from the precipitate. It was found that SFMC level in plasma increases in rabbits infused intravenously with thrombin and decreases after injection of plasmin with streptokinase. In both cases PS precipitable protein in serum is elevated indicating enhanced fibrinolysis. In healthy human subjects the mean value of OD readings in plasma and sera were found to be 0.30 and 0.11, while in patients with coronary thrombosis they are 0.64 and 0.05 respectively. The origin of SFMC in circulation under physiological and pathological conditions is discussed.

Detection of Circulating Tissue Factor and Factor VII in a Normal Population

1996 ◽  
Vol 75 (05) ◽  
pp. 772-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sybille Albrecht ◽  
Matthias Kotzsch ◽  
Gabriele Siegert ◽  
Thomas Luther ◽  
Heinz Großmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tissue Factor ◽  
Normal Population ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Factor Vii ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
And Gender

SummaryThe plasma tissue factor (TF) concentration was correlated to factor VII concentration (FVIIag) and factor VII activity (FVIIc) in 498 healthy volunteers ranging in age from 17 to 64 years. Immunoassays using monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were developed for the determination of TF and FVIIag in plasma. The mAbs and the test systems were characterized. The mean value of the TF concentration was 172 ± 135 pg/ml. TF showed no age- and gender-related differences. For the total population, FVIIc, determined by a clotting test, was 110 ± 15% and the factor VIlag was 0.77 ± 0.19 μg/ml. FVII activity was significantly increased with age, whereas the concentration demonstrated no correlation to age in this population. FVII concentration is highly correlated with the activity as measured by clotting assay using rabbit thromboplastin. The ratio between FVIIc and FVIIag was not age-dependent, but demonstrated a significant difference between men and women. Between TF and FVII we could not detect a correlation.

Determination of Plasminogen in Clots and Thrombi

1966 ◽  
Vol 16 (01/02) ◽  
pp. 038-050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulla Hedner ◽  
Inga Marie Nilsson ◽  
B Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Mean Value ◽  
Main Mechanism ◽  
Clot Lysis ◽  
Post Mortem ◽  
Digestion Time ◽  
Normal Volunteers ◽  
Casein Solution ◽  
The Mean

SummaryThe plasminogen content was determined by a casein method in plasma and serum from 20 normal volunteers. The mean plasminogen content was found to be 10.1 ACU (the arbitrary caseinolytic unit defined in such a way that using a 3% casein solution and a digestion time of 20 min. at 37°C, 10 ACU gave an extinction of 0.300). No difference between serum and plasma regarding the plasminogen content was found.Plasminogen was determined in drained and drained plus washed clots prepared from 2 ml plasma. The highest values found in the drained clots were 0.9 ACU/clot and 0.2 ACU/clot in the drained plus washed clots.Plasminogen was also determined in drained and drained plus washed clots prepared from plasma with added purified plasminogen. The plasminogen was recovered in the washing fluid. According to these tests, then, purified added plasminogen is washed out of the clots.The plasminogen content of 20 thrombi obtained post mortem was also determined. The mean value was found to be 0.7 ACU/cm thrombus. Judging from our results, the “intrinsic clot lysis theory” is not the main mechanism of clot dissolution.

Perbedaan Pengetahuan Siswa Tentang Penyakit Hepatitis A Sebelum Dan Sesudah Penyuluhan Di MTsN 02 Bondowoso Tahun 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Putri Megasari
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis A ◽  
Hepatitis Virus ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Test Design ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Post Test ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Paired T Test

Hepatitis has become a health problem in the world. The hepatitis virus infected many people. According to the teacher of MTsN 02 Bondowoso more than 20 students have hepatitis A viral infection. The purpose of this research was to know the differences of students' knowledge about hepatitis A before and after counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015. This study used pre-experimental (pre-post test design). This study used stratified random sampling technique, 127 students from 270 sample involved this research,and 143 students was excluded. We used questionnaires to collect data. The results showed that the mean value of the students 'knowledge about hepatitis A before counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015 was 83.96 with the lowest value of 37.5 and the highest value was 100. The mean value of the students' knowledge about hepatitis A after counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015 was 93.21 with the lowest value waf 62.5 and the highest value was 100. Paired t test showed that t (-9.07) > t table (1.98), the null hypothesis (H0) was rejected. There was a difference between students' knowledge about hepatitis A before and after counseling in MTsN 02 Bondowoso 2015. This study showed that routine counseling by healthcare provider was important to prevent hepatitis A infection.; Keywords: counseling, knowledge of students, hepatitis

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