scholarly journals Interplay of social distancing and border restrictions for pandemics via the epidemic renormalisation group framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Renormalisation Group ◽  
Group Approach ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Simulations

Abstract One of the biggest threats to humanity are pandemics. In our global society they can rage around the world with an immense toll in terms of human, economic and social impact. Forecasting the spreading of a pandemic is, therefore, paramount in helping governments to enforce a number of social and economic measures, apt at curbing the pandemic and dealing with its aftermath. We demonstrate that the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics provides an effective and simple way to investigate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different regions of the world. The framework also allows for reliable projections on the impact of travel limitations and social distancing measures on global epidemic spread. We test and calibrate it on reported COVID-19 cases while unveiling the mechanism that governs the delay in the relative peaks of newly infected cases among different regions of the globe. We discover that social distancing measures are more effective than travel limitations across borders in delaying the epidemic peak. We further provide the link to compartmental models such as the time-honoured SIR-like models. We also show how to generalise the framework to account for the interactions across several regions of the world, replacing or complementing large scale simulations.

scholarly journals Estimating asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan: a mathematical modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Huo ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Shigui Ruan
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Antibody Prevalence ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Prevalence Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan started in December 2019 and was under control by the end of March 2020 with a total of 50,006 confirmed cases by the implementation of a series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including unprecedented lockdown of the city. This study analyzes the complete outbreak data from Wuhan, assesses the impact of these public health interventions, and estimates the asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Methods By taking different stages of the outbreak into account, we developed a time-dependent compartmental model to describe the dynamics of disease transmission and case detection and reporting. Model coefficients were parameterized by using the reported cases and following key events and escalated control strategies. Then the model was used to calibrate the complete outbreak data by using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Finally we used the model to estimate asymptomatic and undetected cases and approximate the overall antibody prevalence level. Results We found that the transmission rate between Jan 24 and Feb 1, 2020, was twice as large as that before the lockdown on Jan 23 and 67.6% (95% CI [0.584,0.759]) of detectable infections occurred during this period. Based on the reported estimates that around 20% of infections were asymptomatic and their transmission ability was about 70% of symptomatic ones, we estimated that there were about 14,448 asymptomatic and undetected cases (95% CI [12,364,23,254]), which yields an estimate of a total of 64,454 infected cases (95% CI [62,370,73,260]), and the overall antibody prevalence level in the population of Wuhan was 0.745% (95% CI [0.693%,0.814%]) by March 31, 2020. Conclusions We conclude that the control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan was achieved via the enforcement of a combination of multiple NPIs: the lockdown on Jan 23, the stay-at-home order on Feb 2, the massive isolation of all symptomatic individuals via newly constructed special shelter hospitals on Feb 6, and the large scale screening process on Feb 18. Our results indicate that the population in Wuhan is far away from establishing herd immunity and provide insights for other affected countries and regions in designing control strategies and planing vaccination programs.

Hospitalitas Kristen Yang Hampir Hilang Pada Kasus Kematian Salah Satu Anggota Masyarakat Di Dusun Beringin, Luwu Utara, Sulawesi Selatan Akibat Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
desna rura sarapang
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World ◽  
Global World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Christian Hospitality

The emergence of a new virus in the global world at the end of 2019, namely Corona Virus Disease 2019, brought tremendous excitement to all inhabitants of the earth. The emergence of this virus brings tremendous concern and fear to the world because the spread of this virus is quite fast, even the most frightening is that the risk of death of people exposed to this virus is very large. Indonesia itself, cannot avoid the impact of this Covid-19 case. As a form of efforts to prevent and minimize transmission of the virus, the Indonesian government has issued a social distancing / physical distancing recommendation. This situation also causes the interaction between communities to be very limited. This situation seems to be able to eliminate hospitality among the community. This paper aims to emphasize the importance of maintaining the value of Christian hospitality in society amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Sustainable Electric Vehicle Transportation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12379
Author(s):  
Raymond Kene ◽  
Thomas Olwal ◽  
Barend J. van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Current State ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ev Charging

The future direction of electric vehicle (EV) transportation in relation to the energy demand for charging EVs needs a more sustainable roadmap, compared to the current reliance on the centralised electricity grid system. It is common knowledge that the current state of electricity grids in the biggest economies of the world today suffer a perennial problem of power losses; and were not designed for the uptake and integration of the growing number of large-scale EV charging power demands from the grids. To promote sustainable EV transportation, this study aims to review the current state of research and development around this field. This study is significant to the effect that it accomplishes four major objectives. (1) First, the implication of large-scale EV integration to the electricity grid is assessed by looking at the impact on the distribution network. (2) Secondly, it provides energy management strategies for optimizing plug-in EVs load demand on the electricity distribution network. (3) It provides a clear direction and an overview on sustainable EV charging infrastructure, which is highlighted as one of the key factors that enables the promotion and sustainability of the EV market and transportation sector, re-engineered to support the United Nations Climate Change Agenda. Finally, a conclusion is made with some policy recommendations provided for the promotion of the electric vehicle market and widespread adoption in any economy of the world.

scholarly journals The Influence of COVID-19 on Indonesian Investment

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jeliastiva Jeliastiva ◽  
Farid Fachrurazi
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All

The COVID-19 outbreak has had a serious impact on almost all countries in the world, including Indonesia. In response to this case, various policies began to emerge. Starting from the implementation of work from home, social distancing and physical distancing, until the implementation of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB). overseas investors are busy focusing their finances on the needs of their respective countries to fight the virus. Domestic investment (PMDN) is also predicted to experience a slowdown. The social distancing policy resulted in the community not being able to run the economic system well, especially in the Indonesian investment sector so that the perokoniman namely investment in Indonesia decreased and there were some delays in investment by other countries in Indonesia.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 to Indonesian Education and Its Relation to the Philosophy of “Merdeka Belajar”

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azmil Abidah ◽  
Hasan Nuurul Hidaayatullaah ◽  
Roy Martin Simamora ◽  
Daliana Fehabutar ◽  
Lely Mutakinati
Keyword(s):  
Online Learning ◽  
Position Paper ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Digital Learning ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Official Information

The Covid-19 pandemic is now beginning to spread to the world of education. The Ministry of Education and Culture (MOEC) is currently based on official information, ready with all scenarios, including encouraging online learning for students. This article is a kind of position paper—it clearances one side of a debatable opinion about a hot issue. The aim of a position paper is to persuade the reader that our opinion is valid and defensible. In regards to our position as researchers, then, the point of view is separated into four parts: The philosophy of “Merdeka Belajar”, physical distancing, social distancing and self-quarantine, digital learning in Indonesia to face Covid-19, ‘Merdeka Belajar’, digital learning, Covid-19, and authors’ view.

scholarly journals Peer Group: A New Approach of Nursing Intervention

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Suyanto Suyanto ◽  
Moses Glorino Rumambo Pandin
Keyword(s):  
Peer Group ◽  
Peer Groups ◽  
Nursing Intervention ◽  
Nursing Interventions ◽  
Group Support ◽  
Group Approach ◽  
New Approach ◽  
The World ◽  
Group A ◽  
The Impact

The development of nursing, especially related to the nursing intervention approach, is running so fast. This can be seen from the use of peer group support in nursing interventions in individual humans. The purpose of this literature is to find the impact of implementing nursing interventions using a peer group support approach. This literature review method uses JBI and Prisma on 120 articles taken from journal databases, namely Scopus, PubMed and ScienceDirect. From the articles analyzed, it was found that the application of peer groups can improve individual abilities both in psychological and behavioral aspects. The application of the peer group approach is able to be one of the approaches in the world of nursing in carrying out nursing actions today.

IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ON THE LEVEL OF INFLATION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 245-250
Author(s):  
A. Rasha ◽  
◽  
Sergey P. Koltchin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted many countries to implement social distancing, lock-downs and travel restrictions, bringing the global economy to an unprecedented collapse in peacetime. The article examines the impact of this collapse on the level of inflation in the global economy with some examples of countries in the world.

scholarly journals Tight Cultures and Vengeful Gods: How Culture Shapes Religious Belief

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Conrad Jackson ◽  
Nava Caluori ◽  
Samantha Abrams ◽  
Elizabeth Beckman ◽  
Michele J. Gelfand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Religious Beliefs ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Cultural Norms ◽  
Psychological Model ◽  
Immoral Behavior ◽  
Personal Motivation ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Billions of people from around the world believe in vengeful gods who punish immoral behavior. These punitive religious beliefs may foster prosociality and contribute to large-scale cooperation, but little is known about how these beliefs emerge and why people adopt them in the first place. We present a cultural-psychological model suggesting that cultural tightness—the strictness of cultural norms and normative punishment—helps to catalyze punitive religious beliefs by increasing people’s motivation to punish norm violators. Our model also suggests that tightness mediates the impact of ecological threat on punitive belief, explaining why punitive religious beliefs are most common in regions with high levels of ecological threat. Five multi-method studies support these predictions. Studies 1-3 focus on the effect of cultural tightness on punitive religious beliefs. Historical increases in cultural tightness precede and predict historical increases in punitive beliefs (Study 1), and both manipulating people’s support for tightness (Study 2) and placing people in a simulated tight society (Study 3) increase punitive religious beliefs via the personal motivation to punish norm violators. Studies 4-5 focus on whether cultural tightness mediates the link between ecological threat and punitive religious beliefs. Cultural tightness helps explain why U.S. states with high ecological threat (e.g. natural hazards, scarcity) have the highest levels of punitive religious beliefs (Study 4), and why experimental manipulations of threat increase punitive religious beliefs (Study 5). Past research shows how religion impacts culture, but our studies show how culture can shape religion.

scholarly journals Remittances and The Real Effective Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burulcha Sulaimanova ◽  
Daniyar Jasoolov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Labor Migrants ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Since 2000 the volume of economic reasoned migration has been rapidly rising in Kyrgyzstan. The number of labor migrants currently working abroad counts around 600 thousand people or about 10% of the population of Kyrgyzstan. With growing pattern of labor migration, the amount of remittances has grown as well. According to the World Bank, Kyrgyzstan is on the first place in the world in terms of share of remittances in the GDP (34%) in 2016. The main remittance sending countries for 2005-2016 periods are the Russian federation and Kazakhstan. The large scale of migration outflow and remittances, making domestic economy of Kyrgyzstan dependent on external shocks, related with migration. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact the high level of remittances inflow from labor migration on the exchange rates, particularly on the reel effective exchange rate of Kyrgyzstan for the period of 2005-2016. The empirical analysis was carried out with Cointegration model, and according to the results obtained, the remittances and real effective exchange rates have long run relationship.

scholarly journals Understanding the Anticontagion Process and Reopening of China during COVID-19 via Coevolution Network of Epidemic and Awareness

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Lingbo Li ◽  
Ying Fan ◽  
An Zeng ◽  
Zengru Di
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Human Movements ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Prevention Methods ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is intensifying all over the world, but some countries, including China, have developed extensive and successful experience in controlling this pandemic. In this context, some questions arise naturally: What can countries caught up in the epidemic learn from China’s experience? In regions where the outbreak is under control, what would lead to a resurgence of the epidemic? To address these issues, we investigate China’s experience in anticontagion interventions and reopening process, focusing on the coevolution of epidemic and awareness during COVID-19 outbreak. Through an empirical analysis based on large-scale data and simulation based on a metapopulation and multilayer network model, we ascertain the impact of human movements and awareness diffusion on the epidemic, elucidate the inherent patterns and effective interventions of different epidemic prevention methods, and highlight the crunch time of each measure. The results are also employed to analyze COVID-19 evolution in other countries so as to find unified rules in complex situations around the world and provide advice on anticontagion and reopening policies. Our findings explain some key mechanisms of epidemic prevention and may help the epidemic analysis and decision-making in various countries suffering from COVID-19.

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