Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, associated deaths and impact of key risk factors in England

AbstractCOVID-19 caseloads in England have passed through a first peak, and at the time of this analysis appeared to be gradually increasing, potentially signalling the emergence of a second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths at small-area resolution, identify localised areas in space–time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at high spatial resolution in coming weeks. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical space–time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England [Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA), 6791 units] and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34 of 2020), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial–temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA. Reductions in population mobility during the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have significantly contributed to the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.

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Bayesian small-area modelling of COVID-19 cases and deaths in England and association with key risk factors: a combined space–time Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model

10.21203/rs.3.rs-102191/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Benn Sartorius ◽

Andrew Lawson ◽

Rachel L. Pullan

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Small Area ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Space Time ◽

Spatiotemporal Variability ◽

Population Mobility ◽

Seir Model ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave

Abstract Background: COVID-19 caseloads in England appear have passed through a first peak, with evidence of an emerging second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at small-area resolution in coming weeks.Methods: We applied a Bayesian space–time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England (Middle Layer Super Output Area [MSOA], 6791 units) and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial-temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA.Results: Reductions in population mobility due the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent steady increase signalling the start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates.Conclusions: While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have contributed to the current increase signalling the start of the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.

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Abstract T P136: Potential Contributors to the Declining Impact of Stroke Risk Factors with Age: Implications for Stroke Epidemiology in the Elderly

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.45.suppl_1.tp136 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 45 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

George Howard ◽

Mary Cushman ◽

Maciej Banach ◽

Brett M Kissela ◽

David C Goff ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Factor ◽

Stroke Risk ◽

Multivariable Analysis ◽

The Elderly ◽

Stroke Risk Factors ◽

Age Related ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact ◽

Age Related Changes

Purpose: The importance of stroke research in the elderly is increasing as America is “graying.” For most risk factors for most diseases (including stroke), the magnitude of association with incident events decreases at older ages. Potential changes in the impact of risk factors could be a “true” effect, or could be due to methodological issues such as age-related changes in residual confounding. Methods: REGARDS followed 27,748 stroke-free participants age 45 and over for an average of 5.3 years, during which 715 incident strokes occurred. The association of the “Framingham” risk factors (hypertension [HTN], diabetes, smoking, AFib, LVH and heart disease) with incident stroke risk was assessed in age strata of 45-64 (Young), 65-74 (Middle), and 75+ (Old). For those with and without an “index” risk factor (e.g., HTN), the average number of “other” risk factors was calculated. Results: With the exception of AFib, there was a monotonic decrease in the magnitude of the impact across the age strata, with HTN, diabetes, smoking and LVH even becoming non-significant in the elderly (Figure 1). However, for most factors, the increasing prevalence of other risk factors with age impacts primarily those with the index risk factor absent (Figure 2, example HTN as the “index” risk factor). Discussion: The impact of stroke risk factors substantially declined at older ages. However, this decrease is partially attributable to increases in the prevalence of other risk factors among those without the index risk factor, as there was little change in the prevalence of other risk factors in those with the index risk factor. Hence, the impact of the index risk factor is attenuated by increased risk in the comparison group. If this phenomenon is active with latent risk factors, estimates from multivariable analysis will also decrease with age. A deeper understanding of age-related changes in the impact of risk factors is needed.

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Domestic and international mobility trends in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of facebook data

International Journal of Health Geographics ◽

10.1186/s12942-021-00299-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Harry E. R. Shepherd ◽

Florence S. Atherden ◽

Ho Man Theophilus Chan ◽

Alexandra Loveridge ◽

Andrew J. Tatem

Keyword(s):

United Kingdom ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

International Travel ◽

Population Mobility ◽

International Mobility ◽

Mobility Patterns ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021. Results We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination. Conclusions While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.

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High Rate of Fatal Overdose After Release from Prison In BC, Canada: A Data Linkage Study

International Journal for Population Data Science ◽

10.23889/ijpds.v5i5.1606 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (5) ◽

Author(s):

Stuart A Kinner ◽

Wenqi Gan ◽

Amanda Slaunwhite

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Target Population ◽

Linkage Study ◽

High Rate ◽

Physical And Mental Health ◽

Overdose Death ◽

Fatal Overdose ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact ◽

Release From Prison

IntroductionThe province of BC, Canada is in the grips of a sustained overdose epidemic. People released from prison are at increased risk of fatal drug overdose, but the impact of the overdose epidemic on mortality after release from prison in BC is poorly understood. Few studies have been able to examine risk factors for overdose death in this population. Objectives and ApproachWe aimed to (a) measure risk of overdose-related and all-cause death in different time periods after release from prison; and (b) identify risk factors for overdose-related and all-cause death. In a random 20% sample of the population of BC, Canada, we identified those released from prison 2015-2017 and examined linked health and correctional records for this cohort. ResultsOf 6106 persons released from prison 2015-2017, 77 (1.3%) died from any cause and 48 (0.8%) died from overdose 2015-2017. The incidence of all-cause death was 16.1 (95%CI 13.7-18.8) per 1000 person years, and the incidence of overdose death was 11.2 (95%CI 9.2-13.5) per 1000 person years. Risk factors for overdose death included a history of 3 or more incarcerations (HR=3.00, 95%CI 1.67-5.39), co-occurring substance use disorder and mental illness (HR=4.73, 95%CI 2.94-7.62), chronic physical morbidity (HR=3.10, 95%CI 1.97-4.88), and being dispensed benzodiazepines (HR=3.31, 95%CI 2.27-4.84) or opioids for pain (HR=6.77, 95%CI 3.86-11.89). The incidence of fatal overdose was significantly higher in the first two weeks post-release than at any other time during follow-up. ConclusionPeople released from prison in BC are at markedly increased risk of preventable death, mainly due to overdose. As such, people transitioning from prison to the community should be a key target population for overdose prevention efforts. To be maximally effective, these efforts must go beyond provision of methadone and naloxone on release, to consider physical and mental health comorbidities, and psychosocial disadvantage.

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575. Evaluation of Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes of Patients with Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus Infections

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofz360.644 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽

pp. S271-S271

Author(s):

Gauri Chauhan ◽

Nikunj M Vyas ◽

Todd P Levin ◽

Sungwook Kim

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Hospital Mortality ◽

Clinical Outcomes ◽

Subgroup Analysis ◽

Term Care ◽

Treatment Groups ◽

Increased Risk ◽

History Of ◽

Vancomycin Resistant ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) occurs with enhanced frequency in hospitalized patients and are usually associated with poor clinical outcomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk factors and clinical outcomes of patients with VRE infections. Methods This study was an IRB-approved multi-center retrospective chart review conducted at a three-hospital health system between August 2016-November 2018. Inclusion criteria were patients ≥18 years and admitted for ≥24 hours with cultures positive for VRE. Patients pregnant or colonized with VRE were excluded. The primary endpoint was to analyze the association of potential risk factors with all-cause in-hospital mortality (ACM) and 30-day readmission. The subgroup analysis focused on the association of risk factors with VRE bacteremia. The secondary endpoint was to evaluate the impact of different treatment groups of high dose daptomycin (HDD) (≥10 mg/kg/day) vs. low dose daptomycin (LDD) (< 10 mg/kg/day) vs. linezolid (LZD) on ACM and 30-day readmission. Subgroup analysis focused on the difference of length of stay (LOS), length of therapy (LOT), duration of bacteremia (DOB) and clinical success (CS) between the treatment groups. Results There were 81 patients included for analysis; overall mortality was observed at 16%. Utilizing multivariate logistic regression analyses, patients presenting from long-term care facilities (LTCF) were found to have increased risk for mortality (OR 4.125, 95% CI 1.149–14.814). No specific risk factors were associated with 30-day readmission. Patients with previous exposure to fluoroquinolones (FQ) and cephalosporins (CPS), nosocomial exposure and history of heart failure (HF) showed association with VRE bacteremia. ACM was similar between HDD vs. LDD vs. LZD (16.7% vs. 15.4% vs. 0%, P = 0.52). No differences were seen between LOS, LOT, CS, and DOB between the groups. Conclusion Admission from LTCFs was a risk factor associated with in-hospital mortality in VRE patients. Individuals with history of FQ, CPS and nosocomial exposure as well as history of HF showed increased risk of acquiring VRE bacteremia. There was no difference in ACM, LOS, LOT, and DOB between HDD, LDD and LZD. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

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The Potential Therapeutic Value of Medicinal Plants in the Management of Metabolic Disorders

Molecules ◽

10.3390/molecules25112669 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 25 (11) ◽

pp. 2669 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Trevor T. Nyakudya ◽

Thulani Tshabalala ◽

Rachael Dangarembizi ◽

Kennedy H. Erlwanger ◽

Ashwell R. Ndhlala

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Medicinal Plants ◽

South African ◽

Health Benefits ◽

Well Being ◽

High Energy ◽

Biologically Active ◽

Potential Health ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a prevalent, multifactorial and complex disease that is associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes and other major cardiovascular complications. The rise in the global prevalence of MetS has been attributed to genetic, epigenetic, and environmental factors. The adoption of sedentary lifestyles that are characterized by low physical activity and the consumption of high-energy diets contributes to MetS development. Current management criteria for MetS risk factors involve changes in lifestyle and the use of pharmacological agents that target specific biochemical pathways involved in the metabolism of nutrients. Pharmaceutical drugs are usually expensive and are associated with several undesirable side effects. Alternative management strategies of MetS risk factors involve the use of medicinal plants that are considered to have multiple therapeutic targets and are easily accessible. Medicinal plants contain several different biologically active compounds that provide health benefits. The impact of phytochemicals present in local medicinal plants on sustainable health and well-being of individuals has been studied for many years and found to involve a plethora of complex biochemical, metabolic, and physiological mechanisms. While some of these phytochemicals are the basis of mainstream prescribed drugs (e.g., metformin, reserpine, quinine, and salicin), there is a need to identify more medicinal plants that can be used for the management of components of MetS and to describe their possible mechanisms of action. In this review, we assess the potential health benefits of South African ethnomedicinal plants in protecting against the development of health outcomes associated with MetS. We aim to provide the state of the current knowledge on the use of medicinal plants and their therapeutically important phytochemicals by discussing the current trends, with critical examples from recent primary references of how medicinal plants are being used in South African rural and urban communities.

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Outcomes of surgery in patients aged ≥90 years in the general surgical setting

Annals of The Royal College of Surgeons of England ◽

10.1308/rcsann.2017.0203 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 100 (3) ◽

pp. 172-177 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

A Sudlow ◽

H Tuffaha ◽

AT Stearns ◽

IA Shaikh

Keyword(s):

Surgical Procedures ◽

Emergency Surgery ◽

Tertiary Care ◽

Gastrointestinal Surgery ◽

Care Facility ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Emergency Procedures ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact

Introduction An increasing proportion of the population is living into their nineties and beyond. These high risk patients are now presenting more frequently to both elective and emergency surgical services. There is limited research looking at outcomes of general surgical procedures in nonagenarians and centenarians to guide surgeons assessing these cases. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted of all patients aged ≥90 years undergoing elective and emergency general surgical procedures at a tertiary care facility between 2009 and 2015. Vascular, breast and endocrine procedures were excluded. Patient demographics and characteristics were collated. Primary outcomes were 30-day and 90-day mortality rates. The impact of ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) grade, operation severity and emergency presentation was assessed using multivariate analysis. Results Overall, 161 patients (58 elective, 103 emergency) were identified for inclusion in the study. The mean patient age was 92.8 years (range: 90–106 years). The 90-day mortality rates were 5.2% and 19.4% for elective and emergency procedures respectively (p=0.013). The median survival was 29 and 19 months respectively (p=0.001). Emergency and major gastrointestinal operations were associated with a significant increase in mortality. Patients undergoing emergency major colonic or upper gastrointestinal surgery had a 90-day mortality rate of 53.8%. Conclusions The risk for patients aged over 90 years having an elective procedure differs significantly in the short term from those having emergency surgery. In selected cases, elective surgery carries an acceptable mortality risk. Emergency surgery is associated with a significantly increased risk of death, particularly after major gastrointestinal resections.

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REDUCING HEALTH DISPARITIES IN THE ERA OF VALUE-BASED CARE

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igz038.2080 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. S562-S563

Author(s):

Amit Kumar ◽

Elham Mahmoudi ◽

Maricruz Rivera-Hernandez

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Health Care ◽

Puerto Rico ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Minority Populations ◽

Social Risk ◽

Social Risk Factors ◽

Physician Visits ◽

The Us ◽

The Impact

Abstract The US health care system is at a critical moment of transformation. The implementation of value-based models has made significant progress towards improving care quality and coordination, continuity of care and reducing cost. However, concerns have been raised regarding “cherry-picking” healthier people that may negatively impact patients with more complex needs and minority populations. Given that the US is becoming more diverse, there is a need for understanding the impact of social risk factors including ethnicity, immigration status, income and geography on health outcomes and issues of health care disparities. This panel brings together four studies that examine these phenomena in minority populations. These studies will provide novel insight regarding 1) healthcare utilization in Mexican-American Medicare beneficiaries and showing that social determinants of health are associated with a higher risk of hospitalization, emergency room admissions, and outpatient visits. 2) Mortality rates and predialysis care among Hispanics in the US, Hispanics in Puerto Rico, and Whites in the US demonstrating substantial disparities in access to recommended nephrology care for Hispanics in Puerto Rico; 3) Trends in age-adjusted mortality rates and supply of physicians in states with different nurse-practitioners regulation. 4) The impact of social risk factors on disenrollment from Fee-For-Service and enrollment in a Medicare Advantage plan in older Mexican-Americans. 5) Racial disparities in access to physician visits, prescription drugs, and healthcare spending among older adults with cognitive limitation. Studies in this panel will also discuss the effects of changes in care delivery and payment innovations in improving health equity.

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Is prolonged immobilization a risk factor for symptomatic venous thromboembolism in elderly bedridden patients?

Thrombosis and Haemostasis ◽

10.1160/th03-07-0481 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 91 (03) ◽

pp. 538-543 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Ora Paltiel ◽

Michael Bursztyn ◽

Moshe Gatt

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Venous Thromboembolism ◽

Early Period ◽

Thromboembolic Events ◽

Historical Cohort ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Venous Thromboembolic Events ◽

Venous Thromboembolic ◽

Prolonged Immobilization ◽

The Impact

SummaryProlonged immobilization and advanced age are considered to be important risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Nevertheless, the need for VTE prophylaxis in long-term bedridden patients is not known. To assess whether very prolonged immobilization (i.e. over three months) carries an increased risk for clinically apparent VTE, we performed a historical-cohort study of nursing home residents during a ten-year period. Data concerning patient’s mobility and incidence of overt deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were registered. The mean resident age was 85 ± 8.4 years. Eighteen mobile and eight immobile patients were diagnosed with clinically significant thromboembolic events, during 1137 and 573 patient-years of follow up, respectively. The incidence of venous thromboembolic events was similar in both chronically immobilized and mobile patient groups, 13.9 and 15.8 per thousand patient years, respectively (p = 0.77). The rate ratio for having a VTE event in the immobilized patient group as compared with the mobile group was 0.88 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.33 to 2.13). When taking into account baseline characteristics, risk factors and death rates by various causes, no differences were found between the two groups. In conclusion, chronically immobile bedridden patients are no more prone to clinically overt venous thromboembolic events than institutionalized mobile patients. Until further studies are performed concerning the impact of very prolonged immobilization on the risk of VTE, there is no evidence to support primary prevention after the first three months of immobilization. Evidence for efficacy or cost effectiveness beyond this early period is not available.

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Molecular Analysis Of Patients With Deep Venous Thrombosis

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood.v122.21.4799.4799 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 122 (21) ◽

pp. 4799-4799

Author(s):

Soudabeh Hosseeini ◽

Ebrahim Kalantari ◽

Akbar Dorgalaleh ◽

Arash Rozei ◽

Marzieh Jafari ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Venous Thrombosis ◽

Deep Venous Thrombosis ◽

Mthfr C677t ◽

Control Group ◽

Mthfr A1298c ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Fv Leiden ◽

The Impact ◽

Pai 1

Background Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) refers to the formation of a thrombus within a deep vein that frequently occurs after surgical procedures, trauma, in the presence of cancer and immobilization conditions. DVT is a major health problem that causes high rate of morbidity and mortality in the general population. Hyper coagulation states such as antithrombin-III, protein-C and protein-S deficiencies, contribute to formation of DVT. Congenital and acquired gene mutations are other risk factors that stimulate formation of thrombus. Our aims in this study was to molecularly analyze the patients with DVT and assess the impact of common mutations of MTHFR (C677T) (A1298C), PAI-1, Prothrombin 20210 and FV Leiden mutation on occurrence of deep venous thrombosis. Methods This long-term study was conducted from June 2009 to July 2013 on 221 patients with deep venues thrombosis. Two hundred and twenty-one age and sex matched individuals were also chosen as control group. The diagnosis of venous thromboembolic disease was based on patient’s history, clinical findings and D-dimer test. Finally deep venous thrombosis was confirmed with Doppler ultrasonography. In addition, all participants were asked to complete a standardized questionnaire on acquired risk factors for venous thrombosis. After confirmation of DVT, both groups were assessed molecularly for five mutations including, MTHFR C677T, MTHFR A1298C, PAI-1 4G/5G, Prothrombin 20210 and FV Leiden. The relationship between these mutations and the risk of DVT was calculated using logistic regression and expressed as an OR with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Results The mean age of patients and control group were 38±0.8 and 3.7± 0.7 years. Our results revealed that the MTHFR C677T (OR 2.9, 95% 95% CI 1.1 to 7.5) and MTHFR A1298C in heterozygote manner (OR 4.3, 95% CI 1.4 to 13.7) were each associated with an increased risk of DVT. The OR associated with being a carrier of the PAI-1 4G/5G genotype was 2.9 (95% CI 1.14 to 7.5). There was a 4-fold increased risk of DVT associated with Prothrombin 20210 mutation in heterozygote manner (OR 4.3, 95% CI 1.4 to 13.7). For patients who were heterozygous for FV Leiden mutation OR DVT was 2.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.0). Conclusion Our findings suggest that genetic risk factors have a contributory role on occurrence of DVT. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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