scholarly journals The impacts of Seroja Tropical Cyclone towards extreme weather in East Nusa Tenggara

2021 ◽  
Vol 325 ◽  
pp. 01020
Author(s):  
Andung Bayu Sekaranom ◽  
Narastravika Henardi Putri ◽  
Fatih Cinderaswari Puspaningrani
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Initial Position ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Pressure Center ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to discuss the Seroja Tropical Cyclone and its impact on extreme weather. Seroja tropical cyclones occur from April 4 to 5th 2021, in the East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) region. Based on data from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the initial position of the Seroja tropical cyclone was in the Savu Sea, southwest of Timor Island. Since April 1, 2021, the NTT region has become the center of low pressure that triggers the formation of this cyclone. When a tropical storm occurs, the intensity of rainfall which initially reaches less than 60 mm/day, increases rapidly to more than 100 mm/day on April 4 to 5, 2021. This is the impact of the low-pressure center that triggers the formation of tropical cyclones in the region.

Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Phasing between the Upper-Level Trough and Tropical Cyclones

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (3) ◽  
pp. 862-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Ritchie ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Initial Position ◽  
Extratropical Cyclone ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Subtropical Anticyclone ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Whether the tropical cyclone remnants will become a significant extratropical cyclone during the reintensification stage of extratropical transition is a complex problem because of the uncertainty in the tropical cyclone, the midlatitude circulation, the subtropical anticyclone, and the nonlinear interactions among these systems. In a previous study, the authors simulated the impact of the strength of the midlatitude circulation trough without changing its phasing with the tropical cyclone. In this study, the impact of phasing is simulated by fixing the initial position and amplitude of the midlatitude trough and varying the initial position of the tropical cyclone. The peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone following the extratropical transition is strongly dependent on the phasing, which leads to different degrees of interaction with the midlatitude baroclinic zone. Many aspects of the simulated circulation, temperature, and precipitation fields appear quite realistic for the reintensifying and dissipating cases. Threshold values of various parameters in quadrants near and far from the tropical cyclone are extracted that discriminate well between reintensifiers and dissipators. The selection and distribution of threshold parameters are consistent with the Petterssen type-B conceptual model for extratropical cyclone development. Thus, these simulations suggest that phasing between the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude trough is a critical factor in predicting the reintensification stage of extratropical transition.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH SIKLON TROPIS GILLIAN TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH RIAU DAN SEKITARNYA

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Rini Mariana Sibarani
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Pressure Center ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
Sumatra Island

IntisariSiklon Tropis merupakan gangguan meteorologi yang disebabkan karena adanya pusat tekanan rendah di lautan. Syarat terbentuknya siklon tropis di daerah perairan adalah suhu muka laut (sst) cukup panas (T > 260C). Salah satu Siklon Tropis yang terjadi di perairan Indinesia adalah Siklon Tropis Gillian. Siklon Tropis ini terjadi di Selatan Perairan Indonesia, yang berlangsung selama 5 hari dari tanggal 21 Maret – 25 Maret 2014. Siklon Tropis Gillian ini mempengaruhi kondisi curah hujan di wilayah Indonesia bagian Utara, tepatnya di Pulau Sumatera Bagian Utara. Selama terjadinya Siklon Tropis Gillian mengakibatkan pengurangan Curah hujan di wilayah tersebut, terutama di daerah Provinsi Riau. Dari data yang diperoleh baik dari data Penakar POS METEOROLOGI maupun dari data Satelit TRMM Jaxa mulai tanggal 23 Maret – 27 Maret 2014, curah hujan yang tercatat di wilayah Riau dan sekitarnya mendekati 0 mm. Hal ini membuktikan bahwa Siklon Tropis Gillian di selatan Perairan Jawa mempengaruhi curah hujan di Pulau Sumatera Bagian Utara (Riau).  AbstrackTropical Cyclone is the meteorological disturbance due to the low pressure center in the ocean. Terms of tropical cyclone formation in the waters is the sea surface temperature (sst) is quite warm (T> 260C). Tropical Cyclone Gillian is one of Tropical Cyclone that occurred in the waters of Indinesia. This tropical cyclones occur in the Southern waters of Indonesian, which lasted for 5 days from March 21 to March 25, 2014. Tropical Cyclone Gillian affects rainfall in the northern part of Indonesia, precisely in Northern Sumatra Island. During the Tropical Cyclone Gillian lead to a reduction in rainfall in the region, especially in the province of Riau. Rainfall data from the POS METEOROLOGY and TRMM Satellite Jaxa began on March 23 to March 27, 2014, was recorded in Riau area close to 0 mm. This proves that the Tropical Cyclone Gillian in southern waters of Java affecting rainfall in Northern of Sumatera Island (Riau).

scholarly journals Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. eaaw9253 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Reed ◽  
A. M. Stansfield ◽  
M. F. Wehner ◽  
C. M. Zarzycki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Human Influence ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals The Impact of Convective Momentum Transport on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using the Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (4) ◽  
pp. 1195-1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy F. Hogan ◽  
Randal L. Pauley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Momentum Transport ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Transport Parameter ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Convective Momentum Transport ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The influence of convective momentum transport (CMT) on tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is examined in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) with the Emanuel cumulus parameterization. Data assimilation and medium-range forecast experiments show that for 35 tropical cyclones during August and September 2004 the inclusion of CMT in the cumulus parameterization significantly improves the TC track forecasts. The tests show that the track forecasts are very sensitive to the magnitude of the Emanuel parameterization’s convective momentum transport parameter, which controls the CMT tendency returned by the parameterization. While the overall effect of this formulation of CMT in NOGAPS data assimilation/medium-range forecasts results in the surface pressure of tropical cyclones being less intense (and more consistent with the analysis), the parameterization is not equivalent to a simple diffusion of winds in the presence of convection. This is demonstrated by two data assimilation/medium-range forecast tests in which a vertical diffusion algorithm replaces the CMT. Two additional data assimilation/medium-range forecast experiments were conducted to test whether the skill increase primarily comes from the CMT in the immediate vicinity of the tropical cyclones. The results show that the inclusion of the CMT calculation in the vicinity of the TC makes the largest contribution to the increase in forecast skill, but the general contribution of CMT away from the TC also plays an important role.

scholarly journals Impacts of Late-Spring North Eurasian Soil Moisture Variation on Summer Rainfall Anomalies in Northern East Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghan Sang ◽  
Hong-Li Ren ◽  
Yi Deng ◽  
Xiaofeng Xu ◽  
Xueli Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Pressure Center ◽  
North Eurasia ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper reports findings from a diagnostic and modeling analysis that investigates the impact of the late-spring soil moisture anomaly over North Eurasia on the boreal summer rainfall over northern East Asia (NEA). Soil moisture in May in the region from the Kara-Laptev Sea coasts to Central Siberian Plateau is found to be negatively correlated with the summer rainfall from Mongolia to Northeast China. The atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the anomalously dry soil are characterized by a pressure dipole with the high-pressure center located over North Eurasia and the low-pressure center over NEA, where an anomalous lower-level moisture convergence occurs, favoring rainfall formation. Diagnoses and Modeling experiments demonstrate that the effect of the spring low soil moisture over North Eurasia may persist into the following summer through modulating local surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, increasing low-level air temperature at higher latitudes, and effectively reducing the meridional temperature gradient. The weakened temperature gradient could induce the decreased zonal wind and the generation of a low-pressure center over NEA, associated with a favorable condition of local synoptic activity. The above relationships and mechanisms are vice versa for the prior wetter soil and decreased NEA rainfall. These findings suggest that soil moisture anomalies over North Eurasia may act as a new precursor providing an additional predictability source for better predicting the summer rainfall in NEA.

scholarly journals A Community-Based Vulnerability Assessment of Terrestrial Flooding in the South Oropouche River Basin After Tropical Storm Bret

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 166
Author(s):  
Don Charles
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
The South ◽  
Community Based ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The year 2017 had a very active season for hurricanes and extreme weather conditions. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria did damage to several Caribbean islands. Even Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), a country which rarely experiences extreme weather conditions, was affected by Tropical Storm Bret. Tropical Storm Bret caused flooding in T&T, especially in the low lying South Oropouche River Basin.There is a dearth of research conducted in T&T about the impact of extreme weather conditions and flooding on communities and families. Thus, this study sought to conduct a community base vulnerability assessment (CBVA) of the impact of the Tropical Storm Bret induced flooding upon the residents of the South Oropouche River Basin.Primary data was collected via semi-structured interviews and questionnaires to conduct the CBVA. Furthermore, this study introduced a Modal Community Based Vulnerability Assessment Index (MCBVAI) to help determine which factors the residents South Oropouche River Basin are most vulnerable to.This study found that the most vulnerable residents were vulnerable largely to their building of structures at locations unsuitable for housing. Moreover, the most vulnerable residents also built structures that were not resilient to flooding and was elevated less than 4 feet (ft) off the ground. The appropriate policy response for the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GORTT) would be to i) establish building codes, ii) develop a comprehensive spatial planning strategy which prohibits people from building structures in unsuitable areas, and iii) implement disaster risk reduction programmes which focus on improving pre-event disaster preparedness, improving the national and local response, and promoting educational awareness.

scholarly journals The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data from the THORPEX Pacific Area Regional Campaign and the NOAA Hurricane Field Program on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Global Forecast System

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 2689-2703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sim D. Aberson
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Unexpected Result ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pacific Area ◽  
Taiwan Region

Four aircraft released dropwindsondes in and around tropical cyclones in the west Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Area Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR); multiple aircraft concurrently participated in similar missions in the Atlantic. Previous studies have treated each region separately and have focused on the tropical cyclones whose environments were sampled. The large number of missions and tropical cyclones in both regions, and additional tropical cyclones in the east Pacific and Indian Oceans, allows for the global impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts to be studied. The study shows that there are unintended global consequences to local changes in initial conditions, in this case due to the assimilation of dropwindsonde data in tropical cyclone environments. These global impacts are mainly due to the spectral nature of the model system. These differences should be small and slightly positive, since improved local initial conditions should lead to small global forecast improvements. However, the impacts on tropical cyclones far removed from the data are shown to be as large and positive as those on the tropical cyclones specifically targeted for improved track forecasts. Causes of this unexpected result are hypothesized, potentially providing operational forecasters tools to identify when large remote impacts from surveillance missions might occur.

scholarly journals Satellite-based monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and movement

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-168
Author(s):  
R. R. KELKAR
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Estimation Scheme ◽  
Water Vapour Absorption ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Absorption Channel ◽  
The Impact

    ABSTRACT. Capabilities of meteorological satellites have gone a long way in meeting requirements of synoptic analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones. This paper shows the impact made by the satellite data in the intensity estimation and track prediction of tropical cyclones in the Indian Seas and also reviews the universally applied Dvorak algorithm for performing tropical cyclone intensity analysis. Extensive use of Dvorak's intensity estimation scheme has revealed many of its limitations and elements of subjectivity in the analysis of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which, like cyclones in other ocean basins, also exhibit wide structural variability as seen in the satellite imagery. Satellite-based cyclone tracking techniques include: (i) use of satellite-derived mean wind flow,             (ii) animation of sequence of satellite images and extrapolation of the apparent motion of the cloud system and (iii) monitoring changes in the upper level moisture patterns in the water vapour absorption channel imagery. Satellite-based techniques on tropical cyclone intensity estimation and track prediction have led to very significant improvement in disaster warning and consequent saving of life and property.    

scholarly journals Analyzing Gaps in Hurricane Rain Coverage to Inform Future Satellite Proposals

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 2673
Author(s):  
Justin P. Stow ◽  
Mark A. Bourassa ◽  
Heather M. Holbach
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Drop Size ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Pressure Center ◽  
Rain Drop ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Aircraft Data ◽  
Surface Observations

This study assesses where tropical cyclone (TC) surface winds can be measured as a function of footprint sizes and wavelengths (Ka- Ku- and C-band). During TCs, most high-resolution surface observations are impeded by considerable ‘rain contamination.’ Under these conditions, high-resolution surface observations typically come from operational aircraft. Other techniques that provide high-resolution surface observations through rain are also hindered somewhat by rain contamination and are very sparse in space and time. The impacts of rain are functions of the remotely sensed wavelength and rain–drop size. Therefore, relative long wavelengths have been used to observe the surface, but at the cost of a larger footprint. We examine how smaller footprint sizes could be used to observe through gaps between moderate to heavy rainbands that circulate around the main low-pressure center of a TC. Aircraft data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) WP-3D turboprop aircraft will be used to create realistic maps of rain. Our results provide information on the satellite instrument characteristics needed to see the surface through these gaps. This information is expected to aid in developing hurricane-related applications of new higher-resolution satellites.

scholarly journals Sensitivity in the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007) to Near-Surface Soil Moisture Characteristics

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (12) ◽  
pp. 3848-3870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clark Evans ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
Thomas J. Galarneau
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Soil Moisture Content ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Signal ◽  
Along Track ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impact of abnormally moist soil conditions across the southern Great Plains upon the overland reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007). This is tested by analyzing the contributions of three soil moisture–related signals—a seasonal signal, an along-track rainfall signal, and an early postlandfall rainfall signal—to the intensity of the vortex. In so doing, a suite of nine convection-permitting numerical simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) is used. Of the signals tested, soil moisture contributions from the anomalously wet months preceding Erin are found to have the greatest positive impact upon the intensity of the vortex, though this impact is on the order of that from climatological soil moisture conditions. The greatest impact of the early rainfall signal contributions is found when it is added to the seasonal signal. Along-track rainfall during the simulation period has a minimal impact. Variations in soil moisture content result in impacts upon the boundary layer thermodynamic environment via boundary layer mixing. Greater soil moisture content results in weaker mixing, a shallower boundary layer, and greater moisture and instability. Differences in the intensity of convection that develops and its accompanying latent heat release aloft result in greater warm-core development and surface vortex intensification within the simulations featuring greater soil moisture content. Implications of these findings to the tropical cyclone development process are discussed. Given that the reintensification is shown to occur in, apart from land, an otherwise favorable environment for tropical cyclone development and results in a vortex with a structure similar to developing tropical cyclones, these findings provide new insight into the conditions under which tropical cyclones develop.

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