scholarly journals MO031EFFECTS OF PREDICTIVE MODELLING RISK DIRECTED INTERVENTIONS ON HOSPITALIZATION RATES IN HAEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheetal Chaudhuri ◽  
Sophia Rosen ◽  
John Larkin ◽  
Len A Usvyat ◽  
David Sweet ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) patients have high hospitalization rates. We have developed and deployed a predictive model to identify in-centre haemodialysis (HD) patients at an increased risk for all-cause hospitalization within the next 12 months. The model was used in a pilot called Dialysis Hospitalization Reduction Program (DHRP) to identify patients predicted to be at risk of >=6 hospital admissions and provide additional interdisciplinary team intervention. We investigated the impact of the DHRP on hospitalization rates in HD patients. Method We used data from 45 clinics in South Alabama/Florida Panhandle regions of the United States who participated in DHRP pilot starting January 2016. The predictive model used more than 200 variables to stratify patients as high risk (>=6 admissions), medium high risk (>=3 admissions) and medium low risk (>=1 admission) and low risk (<1 admission). For patients identified at high risk of hospitalization, social workers assessed psychosocial barriers and offered additional psychosocial intervention to target those barriers. Dietitians utilized a high risk assessment looking at weight, nutrition, and access to food and supplements. Resident nurses assessed high risk patients focusing on anaemia, adequacy, access, blood pressure, fluid management, prior hospitalizations, glycaemic control and risk of skin ulcers and blood stream infection Data from patients at the participating clinics was collected and yearly hospital admission and day rates per patient year were calculated 2 years prior to (2014, 2015) and 3 years after (2016-2018) pilot start. Comparison clinics were chosen from neighbouring regions in South and North Florida (43 and 45 clinics respectively). Results Over the study period the number of patients ranged from 4661 to 5672 in the DHRP pilot clinics, 5416 to 5947 in South Florida control clinics, and 6087 to 7596 in North Florida control clinics. Hospitalization rates in pilot clinics during the first year of the DHRP remined similar to the rates during the two years preceding the pilot start. In the second and third years of the DHRP, pilot clinics showed reductions in hospital admission and day rates. At control clinics in both regions the hospital admissions and day rates showed increasing trends while DHRP clinics showed decreasing trends over the study period (Figures 1a and 1b). Conclusion These findings suggest predictive model risk directed interdisciplinary team interventions associate with lower hospitalization rates in HD patients, compared to controls. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 325-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Howard ◽  
Rebecca Zhang ◽  
Yijian Huang ◽  
Nancy Kutner

AbstractIntroductionDialysis centers struggled to maintain continuity of care for dialysis patients during and immediately following Hurricane Katrina's landfall on the US Gulf Coast in August 2005. However, the impact on patient health and service use is unclear.ProblemThe impact of Hurricane Katrina on hospitalization rates among dialysis patients was estimated.MethodsData from the United States Renal Data System were used to identify patients receiving dialysis from January 1, 2001 through August 29, 2005 at clinics that experienced service disruptions during Hurricane Katrina. A repeated events duration model was used with a time-varying Hurricane Katrina indicator to estimate trends in hospitalization rates. Trends were estimated separately by cause: surgical hospitalizations, medical, non-renal-related hospitalizations, and renal-related hospitalizations.ResultsThe rate ratio for all-cause hospitalization associated with the time-varying Hurricane Katrina indicator was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.05-1.29; P = .004). The ratios for cause-specific hospitalization were: surgery, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.68-1.04; P = .11); renal-related admissions, 2.53 (95% CI, 2.09-3.06); P < .001), and medical non-renal related, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.89-1.20; P = .63). The estimated number of excess renal-related hospital admissions attributable to Katrina was 140, representing approximately three percent of dialysis patients at the affected clinics.ConclusionsHospitalization rates among dialysis patients increased in the month following the Hurricane Katrina landfall, suggesting that providers and patients were not adequately prepared for large-scale disasters.Howard D, Zhang R, Huang Y, Kutner N. Hospitalization rates among dialysis patients during Hurricane Katrina. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2012;27(4):1-5.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Luo ◽  
Michael D Johnson ◽  
Flory L Nkoy ◽  
Shan He ◽  
Bryan L Stone

BACKGROUND Bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in children under 2 years of age. Each year in the United States, bronchiolitis results in 287,000 emergency department visits, 32%-40% of which end in hospitalization. Frequently, emergency department disposition decisions (to discharge or hospitalize) are made subjectively because of the lack of evidence and objective criteria for bronchiolitis management, leading to significant practice variation, wasted health care use, and suboptimal outcomes. At present, no operational definition of appropriate hospital admission for emergency department patients with bronchiolitis exists. Yet, such a definition is essential for assessing care quality and building a predictive model to guide and standardize disposition decisions. Our prior work provided a framework of such a definition using 2 concepts, one on safe versus unsafe discharge and another on necessary versus unnecessary hospitalization. OBJECTIVE The goal of this study was to determine the 2 threshold values used in the 2 concepts, with 1 value per concept. METHODS Using Intermountain Healthcare data from 2005-2014, we examined distributions of several relevant attributes of emergency department visits by children under 2 years of age for bronchiolitis. Via a data-driven approach, we determined the 2 threshold values. RESULTS We completed the first operational definition of appropriate hospital admission for emergency department patients with bronchiolitis. Appropriate hospital admissions include actual admissions with exposure to major medical interventions for more than 6 hours, as well as actual emergency department discharges, followed by an emergency department return within 12 hours ending in admission for bronchiolitis. Based on the definition, 0.96% (221/23,125) of the emergency department discharges were deemed unsafe. Moreover, 14.36% (432/3008) of the hospital admissions from the emergency department were deemed unnecessary. CONCLUSIONS Our operational definition can define the prediction target for building a predictive model to guide and improve emergency department disposition decisions for bronchiolitis in the future.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgiy V. Bobashev ◽  
Sarah Mars ◽  
Nicholas Murphy ◽  
Clinton Dreisbach ◽  
William Zule ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTBackground and AimsUsing mathematical modeling to illustrate and predict how different heroin source-forms: “black tar” (BTH) and powder heroin (PH) can affect HIV transmission in the context of contrasting injecting practices. By quantifying HIV risk by these two heroin source-types we show how each affects the incidence and prevalence of HIV over time. From 1997 to 2010 PH reaching the United States was manufactured overwhelmingly by Colombian suppliers and distributed in the eastern states of the United States. Recently Mexican cartels that supply the western U.S. states have started to produce PH too, replacing Colombian distribution to the east. This raises the possibility that BTH in the western U.S. may be replaced by PH in the future.DesignWe used an agent-based model to evaluate the impact of use of different heroin formulations in high- and low-risk injecting drug user populations who use different types of syringes (high vs. low dead space) and injecting practices. We obtained model parameters from peer-reviewed publications and ethnographic research.ResultsHeating of BTH, additional syringe rinsing, and subcutaneous injection can substantially decrease the risk of HIV transmission. Simulation analysis shows that HIV transmission risk may be strongly affected by the type of heroin used. We reproduced historic differences in HIV prevalence and incidence. The protective effect of BTH is much stronger in high-risk compared with low-risk populations. Simulation of future outbreaks show that when PH replaces BTH we expect a long-term overall increase in HIV prevalence. In a population of injectors with mixed low- and high-risk clusters we find that local HIV outbreaks can occur even when the overall prevalence and incidence are low. The results are dependent on evidence-supported assumptions.ConclusionsThe results support harm-reduction measures focused on a reduction in syringe sharing and promoting protective measures of syringe rinsing and drug solution heating.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 92-92
Author(s):  
Howard I. Scher ◽  
Fred Saad ◽  
Maneesha Mehra ◽  
Sandhya Nair ◽  
Lindsay Dearden ◽  
...  

92 Background: Novel hormonal therapies (nHTs) provide significant delay in disease progression in metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) and non-metastatic (nm)CRPC. The impact of earlier use of these agents on the epidemiological burden of PC in the US was assessed. Methods: A disease stage transition model capturing pt flow through eight clinical states and tracking pt treatment history was used, with each nHT being used once. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data for each drug/regimen were derived from published sources where available. We analyzed scenarios 1) no nHTs and 2) with nHTs: (abiraterone acetate + prednisone [AAP], apalutamide [APA] and enzalutamide [ENZA] in high-risk mCSPC, and APA and ENZA in low-risk mCSPC and in high-risk nmCRPC). Resultant state progression parameters were compared, evaluating the impact of nHTs. The assumed nHT utilization was 17.2% in high-risk mCSPC, 7.1% in low-risk mCSPC, and 60.0% in high-risk nmCRPC. Results: For 2018, the model resulted in PC incidence of 240,150 and prevalence of 2,445,173; 49,450 pts progressed to mCRPC, 42% from PSA biochemical recurrence, 31% from mCSPC, and 27% from nmCRPC states. Longer PFS and OS afforded by novel treatments extended the mean time spent from 4.4 to 4.7 yrs in mCSPC and from 2.4 to 3.0 yrs in nmCRPC. This further resulted in reduction in inflow to mCRPC over 2019 – 2025 (table). Conclusions: Novel hormonal therapies are currently used earlier in PC, a trend anticipated to intensify. The disease model shows this change in the treatment paradigm to result in delaying progression to mCRPC and increasing OS in PC.[Table: see text]


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin L. Black ◽  
Courtney Duval

Background: Diabetes is a growing problem in the United States. Increasing hospital admissions for diabetes patients demonstrate the need for evidence-based care of diabetes patients by inpatient providers, as well as the importance of continuity of care when transitioning patients from inpatient to outpatient providers. Methods: A focused literature review of discharge planning and transitions of care in diabetes, conducted in PubMed is presented. Studies were selected for inclusion based on content focusing on transitions of care in diabetes, risk factors for readmission, the impact of inpatient diabetes education on patient outcomes, and optimal medication management of diabetes during care transitions. American Diabetes Association (ADA) guidelines for care of patients during the discharge process are presented, as well as considerations for designing treatment regimens for a hospitalized patient transitioning to various care settings. Results: Multiple factors may make transitions of care difficult, including poor communication, poor patient education, inappropriate follow-up, and clinically complex patients. ADA recommendations provide guidance, but an individualized approach for medication management is needed. Use of scoring systems may help identify patients at higher risk for readmission. Good communication with patients and outpatient providers is needed to prevent patient harm. A team-based approach is needed, utilizing the skills of inpatient and outpatient providers, diabetes educators, nurses, and pharmacists. Conclusion: Structured discharge planning per guideline recommendations can help improve transitions in care for patients with diabetes. A team based, patient-centered approach can help improve patient outcomes by reducing medication errors, delay of care, and hospital readmissions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 09 (03) ◽  
pp. E348-E355
Author(s):  
David L. Diehl ◽  
Harshit S. Khara ◽  
Nasir Akhtar ◽  
Rebecca J. Critchley-Thorne

Abstract Background and study aims The TissueCypher Barrett’s Esophagus Assay is a novel tissue biomarker test, and has been validated to predict progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with Barrett’s esophagus (BE). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of TissueCypher on clinical decision-making in the management of BE. Patients and methods TissueCypher was ordered for 60 patients with non-dysplastic (ND, n = 18) BE, indefinite for dysplasia (IND, n = 25), and low-grade dysplasia (LGD, n = 17). TissueCypher reports a risk class (low, intermediate or high) for progression to HGD or EAC within 5 years. The impact of the test results on BE management decisions was assessed. Results Fifty-two of 60 patients were male, mean age 65.2 ± 11.8, and 43 of 60 had long segment BE. TissueCypher results impacted 55.0 % of management decisions. In 21.7 % of patients, the test upstaged the management approach, resulting in endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) or shorter surveillance interval. The test downstaged the management approach in 33.4 % of patients, leading to surveillance rather than EET. In the subset of patients whose management plan was changed, upstaging was associated with a high-risk TissueCypher result, and downstaging was associated with a low-risk result (P < 0.0001). Conclusions TissueCypher was used as an adjunct to support a surveillance-only approach in 33.4 % of patients. Upstaging occurred in 21.7 % of patients, leading to therapeutic intervention or increased surveillance. These results indicate that the TissueCypher test may enable physicians to target EET for TissueCypher high-risk BE patients, while reducing unnecessary procedures in TissueCypher low-risk patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad H. Al-Qahtani ◽  
Abdullah A. Yousef ◽  
Bassam H. Awary ◽  
Waleed H. Albuali ◽  
Mohammed A. Al Ghamdi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The Emergency Repartment (ER) is one of the most used areas in healthcare institutions. Problems with over utilisation and overcrowding have been reported worldwide. This study aims at examining the characteristics of paediatric ER visits, the rate of hospital admissions and its associated predictors at King Fahd Hospital of the University in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Methods This is a retrospective, medical record-based study. Variables included gender, age group, nationality, complaints, Triage level, shifts and seasons. Descriptive statistics were reported as frequencies/percentages. P-values were obtained through a Chi-Squared test while unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated by binary logistic regression, where admission was considered as the outcome. Results The total number of paediatric patients included was 46,374, and only 2.5% were admitted. Males comprised 55.4% while females comprised 44.6%. The most common age group were toddlers, and 92.4% of the total sample were Saudis. The most common complaint was fever (26.9%) followed by respiratory symptoms (24.9%). Only 7 patients (0.02%) were classified as triage I (Resuscitation), and most were triage IV (Less urgent) (71.0%). Most visits occurred during the winter months. Adjusted ORs showed that neonates had higher odds of admission (OR = 3.85, 95%CI = 2.57–5.76). Moreover, those presenting with haematological conditions showed an OR of 65.49 (95%CI = 47.85–89.64), followed by endocrine conditions showing an OR of 34.89 (95%CI = 23.65–51.47). Triage I had a very high odds of admission (OR = 19.02, 95%CI = 2.70–133.76), whereas triage V was associated with a very low odds of admission (OR = 0.30, 95%CI = 0.23–0.38). Conclusions A low rate of hospital admission was found in comparison with other rates worldwide. This was mostly attributed to an alarmingly high number of non-urgent ER visits. This further emphasises the problem with improper use of ER services, as these cases should be more appropriately directed towards primary healthcare centres. Further studies to examine the impact of prioritising patients in the ER based on the identified predictors of hospital admission, in addition to the standard triage system, are suggested.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S843-S843
Author(s):  
John M McLaughlin ◽  
Farid L Khan ◽  
Heinz-Josef Schmitt ◽  
Yasmeen Agosti ◽  
Luis Jodar ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Understanding the true magnitude of infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden is critical for determining the potential public-health benefit of RSV prevention strategies. Although global reviews of infant RSV burden exist, none have summarized data from the United States or evaluated how RSV burden estimates are influenced by variations in study design. Methods We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of studies describing RSV-associated hospitalization rates among US infants. We also examined the impact of key study characteristics on these estimates. Results After review of 3058 articles through January 2020, we identified 25 studies with 31 unique estimates of RSV-associated hospitalization rates. Among US infants &lt; 1 year of age, annual rates ranged from 8.4 to 40.8 per 1000 with a pooled rate= 19.4 (95%CI= 17.9–20.9). Study type was associated with RSV hospitalization rates (P =.003), with active surveillance studies having pooled rates per 1000 (11.1; 95%CI: 9.8–12.3) that were half that of studies based on administrative claims (21.4; 95%CI: 19.5–23.3) or modeling approaches (23.2; 95%CI: 20.2–26.2). Conclusion Applying the pooled rates identified in our review to the 2020 US birth cohort suggests that 73,680 to 86,020 RSV-associated infant hospitalizations occur each year. To date, public-health officials have used conservative estimates from active surveillance as the basis for defining US infant RSV burden. The full range of RSV-associated hospitalization rates identified in our review better characterizes the true RSV burden in infants and can better inform future evaluations of RSV prevention strategies. Disclosures John M. McLaughlin, PhD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Farid L. Khan, MPH, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Heinz-Josef Schmitt, MD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Yasmeen Agosti, MD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Luis Jodar, PhD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Eric Simões, MD, Pfizer (Consultant, Research Grant or Support) David L. Swerdlow, MD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder)


Author(s):  
Daniel Samano ◽  
Shubhayu Saha ◽  
Taylor Corbin Kot ◽  
JoNell E. Potter ◽  
Lunthita M. Duthely

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.


Author(s):  
Satish Sankaran ◽  
Jyoti Bajpai Dikshit ◽  
Chandra Prakash SV ◽  
SE Mallikarjuna ◽  
SP Somashekhar ◽  
...  

AbstractCanAssist Breast (CAB) has thus far been validated on a retrospective cohort of 1123 patients who are mostly Indians. Distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS) of more than 95% was observed with significant separation (P < 0.0001) between low-risk and high-risk groups. In this study, we demonstrate the usefulness of CAB in guiding physicians to assess risk of cancer recurrence and to make informed treatment decisions for patients. Of more than 500 patients who have undergone CAB test, detailed analysis of 455 patients who were treated based on CAB-based risk predictions by more than 140 doctors across India is presented here. Majority of patients tested had node negative, T2, and grade 2 disease. Age and luminal subtypes did not affect the performance of CAB. On comparison with Adjuvant! Online (AOL), CAB categorized twice the number of patients into low risk indicating potential of overtreatment by AOL-based risk categorization. We assessed the impact of CAB testing on treatment decisions for 254 patients and observed that 92% low-risk patients were not given chemotherapy. Overall, we observed that 88% patients were either given or not given chemotherapy based on whether they were stratified as high risk or low risk for distant recurrence respectively. Based on these results, we conclude that CAB has been accepted by physicians to make treatment planning and provides a cost-effective alternative to other similar multigene prognostic tests currently available.


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