scholarly journals Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Scala ◽  
Andrea Flori ◽  
Alessandro Spelta ◽  
Emanuele Brugnoli ◽  
Matteo Cinelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Rebound Effects ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
The World ◽  
Mobility Matrix

AbstractWe develop a minimal compartmental model to analyze policies on mobility restriction in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. Our findings show that a premature lockdown barely shifts the epidemic in time: moreover, beyond a critical value of the lockdown strength, an epidemic that seems to be quelled fully recovers after lifting the restrictions. We investigate the effects on lockdown scenarios and exit strategies by introducing heterogeneities in the model. In particular, we consider Italian regions as separate administrative entities in which social interactions through different age classes occur. We find that, due to the sparsity of the mobility matrix, epidemics develop independently in different regions once the outbreak starts. Moreover, after the epidemics ha started, the influence of contacts with other regions becomes soon irrelevant. Sparsity might be responsible for the observed delays among different regions. Analogous arguments apply to the world/countries scenario. We also find that disregarding the structure of social contacts could lead to severe underestimation of the post-lockdown effects. Nevertheless, age class based strategies can help to mitigate rebound effects with milder strategies. Finally, we point out that these results can be generalized beyond this particular model by providing a description of the effects of key parameters on non-medical epidemic mitigation strategies.

October 2020–January 2021

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-228
Author(s):  
Frank Cranmer
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Joint Statement ◽  
Mixed Feelings ◽  
At Home

The period under review continued to be dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Westminster Government and the devolved administrations issued a joint statement on 16 December 2020 outlining a series of relaxations on social contacts between 23 and 27 December but even so it seemed that there were mixed feelings about any relaxation. The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, continued to stress that the Scottish Government's recommendation was to celebrate Christmas at home and to keep interactions with other households to a minimum. The Welsh Government decided that social interactions should be limited to two households only, to be followed by a further lockdown from 28 December.

scholarly journals A New Transmission Route for the Propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus

Biology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Antoine Danchin ◽  
Tuen Wai Ng ◽  
Gabriel Turinici
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Route ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Public Records ◽  
Specific Strategy ◽  
Virus Tropism ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Existing Data

Background: Starting late 2019, a novel coronavirus spread from the capital of the Hubei province in China to the rest of the country, then to most of the world. To anticipate future trends in the development of the pandemic, we explore here, based on public records of infected persons, how variation in the virus tropism could end up in different patterns, warranting a specific strategy to handle the epidemic. Methods: We use a compartmental model to describe the evolution of an individual through several possible states: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected, and removed. We fit the parameters of the model to the existing data, taking into account significant quarantine changes where necessary. Results: The model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective, but that alternative virus forms and a second propagation route are compatible with available data. For the Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shenzhen regions, the secondary route does not seem to be active. Conclusions: Hypotheses of an alternative infection tropism (the gut tropism) and a secondary propagation route are discussed using a model fitted by the available data. Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.

scholarly journals Research Progress of Desertification and Its Prevention in Mongolia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6861
Author(s):  
Xiya Liang ◽  
Pengfei Li ◽  
Juanle Wang ◽  
Faith Ka Shun Chan ◽  
Chuluun Togtokh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Development ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Research Progress ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approaches ◽  
The World ◽  
Impacting Factors ◽  
Decoupling Analysis ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Relationship

Mongolia is a globally crucial region that has been suffering from land desertification. However, current understanding on Mongolia’s desertification is limited, constraining the desertification control and sustainable development in Mongolia and even other parts of the world. This paper studied spatiotemporal patterns, driving factors, mitigation strategies, and research methods of desertification in Mongolia through an extensive review of literature. Results showed that: (i) remote sensing monitoring of desertification in Mongolia has been subject to a relatively low spatial resolution and considerable time delay, and thus high-resolution and timely data are needed to perform a more precise and timely study; (ii) the contribution of desertification impacting factors has not been quantitatively assessed, and a decoupling analysis is desirable to quantify the contribution of factors in different regions of Mongolia; (iii) existing desertification prevention measures should be strengthened in the future. In particular, the relationship between grassland changes and husbandry development needs to be considered during the development of desertification prevention measures; (iv) the multi-method study (particularly interdisciplinary approaches) and desertification model development should be enhanced to facilitate an in-depth desertification research in Mongolia. This study provides a useful reference for desertification research and control in Mongolia and other regions of the world.

scholarly journals Tracking late Pleistocene Neandertals on the Iberian coast

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Mayoral ◽  
Ignacio Díaz-Martínez ◽  
Jéremy Duveau ◽  
Ana Santos ◽  
Antonio Rodríguez Ramírez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Social Group ◽  
Microbial Mats ◽  
3D Models ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Upper Pleistocene ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The World ◽  
Flooded Area

AbstractHere, we report the recent discovery of 87 Neandertal footprints on the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula (Doñana shoreline, Spain) located on an upper Pleistocene aeolian littoral setting (about 106 ± 19 kyr). Morphometric comparisons, high resolution digital photogrammetric 3D models and detailed sedimentary analysis have been provided to characterized the footprints and the palaeoenvironment. The footprints were impressed in the shoreline of a hypersaline swamped area related to benthic microbial mats, close to the coastline. They have a rounded heel, a longitudinal arch, relatively short toes, and adducted hallux, and represent the oldest upper Pleistocene record of Neandertal footprints in the world. Among these 87 footprints, 31 are longitudinally complete and measure from 14 to 29 cm. The calculated statures range from 104 to 188 cm, with half of the data between 130 and 150 cm. The wide range of sizes of the footprints suggests the existence of a social group integrated by individuals of different age classes but dominated, however, by non-adult individuals. The footprints, which are outside the flooded area are oriented perpendicular to the shoreline. These 87 footprints reinforce the ecological scenario of Neandertal groups established in coastal areas.

Facework on Social Media in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoli Tian ◽  
Qian Li
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sociological Research ◽  
Interpersonal Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Online Spaces ◽  
The Face ◽  
Different Parts

With more social interactions shifting to online venues, the different attributes of major social media sites in China influence how interpersonal interactions are carried out. Despite the lack of physical co-presence online, face culture is extended to online spaces. On social media, Chinese users tend to protect their own face, give face to others, and avoid discrediting the face of others, especially when their online and offline networks overlap. This chapter also discusses the different methods used to study facework online and offline and how facework is studied in different parts of the world. It concludes with a brief discussion of how sociological research has contributed to the study of social media in China and directions for future research.

scholarly journals Communication features in online and offline spaces.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Anrieta A. Karapetyan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Everyday Life ◽  
Nonverbal Communication ◽  
Online Communication ◽  
Social Signals ◽  
Social Lives ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Cultural Components

No other media has become so popular in such a short period of time as online, which mainly serves for the purpose of communication. Online communications have the potential to fundamentally change the character of our social lives on all levels of social interactions. This article represents an attempt of discussing pros and cons of the online communication compared to the offline ones, and including functional as well as cultural components such as habits, usefulness, as well as specific cases affecting the gradual and immediate shift from the offline to the online communication (like COVID19 pandemic). Online communication spaces provide ample opportunities for selfrepresentation, convenience and compliance, easy connectivity from every place in the world, it is time-consuming and costly. It is widely used in all areas of everyday life. At the same time participants of online communication need nonverbal communication and those all-important social signals, which make communication more efficient. Despite the number of advantages, online communication still cannot completely replace the offline ones.

scholarly journals The Era of Digital Enablement: A Blessing or a Curse?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Anne-Laure Mention ◽  
Marko Torkkeli ◽  
JJ Pinto Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
The World

A few months ago, we claimed that COVID-19 had the potential to be a catalyst for change and innovation (Mention et al., 2020). Undeniably, this has indeed eventuated, but to a scale that was unforeseeable and unpredictable to many. Over the last few months, the world has literally changed. Around the world, people and communities have seen their lives put on a standstill, experiencing and experimenting with variable levels of restrictions preventing social interactions. We have learned what physical – rather than social, at least initially – distancing meant and have uncovered new ways of doing things. And that applied to almost for every single aspect of life. (...)

scholarly journals SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Godio ◽  
Francesca Pace ◽  
Andrea Vergnano
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
The World ◽  
Model Equations ◽  
Official Data

We applied a generalized SEIR epidemiological model to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the world, with a focus on Italy and its Lombardia, Piemonte, and Veneto regions. We focus on the application of a stochastic approach in fitting the model numerous parameters using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) solver, to improve the reliability of predictions in the medium term (30 days). We analyze the official data and the predicted evolution of the epidemic in the Italian regions, and we compare the results with data and predictions of Spain and South Korea. We link the model equations to the changes in people’s mobility, with reference to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We discuss the effectiveness of policies taken by different regions and countries and how they have an impact on past and future infection scenarios.

Who Is My Neighbor?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy L. Rosenblum
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Moral Norms ◽  
Physical Proximity ◽  
The World ◽  
At Home

This chapter poses the foundational question, “who is my neighbor?” Proximity to home is essential, but one can count neighbors as those who affect the quality of life at home, with whom people have repeated encounters. Neighbors should not be confused with strangers or with intimates and friends. Commonplace references to globalization, the valorization of cosmopolitanism, universal moral norms that often seem to float high off the surface of everyday relations, media that bring images and voices from across the world, tempt people to understate the significance of place. However, a pair of facts—physical proximity and proximity to home—has a bearing on all the interactions and makes encounters among neighbors a different animal than social interactions in other settings, and certainly different than relations among friends or citizens.

scholarly journals Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-Like Epidemics

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 1236
Author(s):  
Zdzislaw Burda
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Local Modes ◽  
Hybrid Strategy ◽  
The Usa

We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model simulates three interrelated stochastic processes: epidemic spreading, availability of respiratory ventilators and changes in death statistics. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The first simulates transmission through social contacts in the vicinity of the place of residence while the second through social contacts in public places: schools, hospitals, airports, etc., where many people meet, who live in remote geographic locations. Epidemic spreading is modelled as a discrete-time stochastic process on random geometric networks. We use the Monte–Carlo method in the simulations. The following assumptions are made. The basic reproduction number is R0=2.5 and the infectious period lasts approximately ten days. Infections lead to severe acute respiratory syndrome in about one percent of cases, which are likely to lead to respiratory default and death, unless the patient receives an appropriate medical treatment. The healthcare system capacity is simulated by the availability of respiratory ventilators or intensive care beds. Some parameters of the model, like mortality rates or the number of respiratory ventilators per 100,000 inhabitants, are chosen to simulate the real values for the USA and Poland. In the simulations we compare ‘do-nothing’ strategy with mitigation strategies based on social distancing and reducing social mixing. We study epidemics in the pre-vacine era, where immunity is obtained only by infection. The model applies only to epidemics for which reinfections are rare and can be neglected. The results of the simulations show that strategies that slow the development of an epidemic too much in the early stages do not significantly reduce the overall number of deaths in the long term, but increase the duration of the epidemic. In particular, a hybrid strategy where lockdown is held for some time and is then completely released, is inefficient.

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