scholarly journals Predicting the Peak and COVID-19 trend in six high incidence countries: A study based on Modified SEIRD model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Punam Bedi ◽  
Shivani Dhiman ◽  
Neha Gupta ◽  
Vinita Jindal ◽  
Pushkar Gole
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
The People ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
National Governments

AbstractThe novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has claimed the lives of almost a million people across the globe and this trend continues to rise rapidly day by day. The fear of getting infected by Corona virus is affecting the people emotionally, psychologically and mentally. They are not able to work to their full capacity and are also worried about the well beings of their near and dear ones. The National governments have taken up several measures like lockdowns, closing of educational institutions, and work from home for employees of companies wherever feasible. Governments are also advising people to take precautions like not to go out if not necessary, use of mask and keep a distance of appx. 6 ft. if you need to go out as the virus spreads from human to human in close proximity. These measures have helped to limit the spread of this virus in the past few months. However, due to rapid increase in the daily confirmed cases, it is becoming tougher for the governments to provide facilities like testing kits, hospitalization facilities, oxygen cylinders etc. to the infected persons. Thus, there is an urgent need to accurately estimate the number of cases in coming future that can help governments in acquiring the required resources. Further, to handle the economic distress caused by this virus, long-term planning is equally important. Focusing on these two aspects, this paper proposes to use the Modified SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased) model to predict the peak and spread trend of COVID-19 in six countries namely USA, India, Brazil, Russia, Peru and Colombia having the highest number of confirmed cases. As in COVID-19, even infected asymptomatic persons can spread the infection, the chosen model is well suited as exposed compartment of SEIRD model includes asymptomatic exposed individuals which are infectious. Epidemiological data till 9th September 2020 has been utilised to perform short-term predictions till 31st December 2020. Long-term predictions have been computed till 31st December 2023, to estimate the end of the virus in the above-mentioned six nations. Small values of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) have been obtained for the models fitted to reported data for all the countries. Student t-test has been used for accepting the predictions of the Modified SEIRD model based on the reported data.

Combating Coronavirus Disease-2019 Outbreak in Long-Term Care Facilities for Frail Older Adults: Preventive Measures and Palliative Care Go Hand-in-Hand

2021 ◽  
pp. 082585972110393
Author(s):  
Hon Wai Benjamin Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Palliative Care ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The People ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

While the whole population is at risk from infection with the coronavirus, older people—often frail and subject to multimorbidity—are at the highest risk for the severe and fatal disease. Despite strict infection control and social distancing measures, frail adults in long-term care facilities may be at particular risk of transmission of respiratory illness. Treatment decisions are often complex attributed to the heterogeneity of this population with regards to different geriatric domains such as functional status, comorbidity, and poly-pharmacy. While measures must be taken to prevent the novel coronavirus from spreading through these facilities, it is also essential that residents with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have access to the symptom management and support they want and deserve. What most nursing home residents want during the course of their illness is to be able to stay in their facilities, to be surrounded by the people they love most, and to feel relief from their physical and emotional pain. By addressing the limited access to hospice and palliative care delivery in nursing homes, we can prevent unnecessary suffering and pain from COVID-19 as well as lay the groundwork for improving care for all residents moving forward.

Conservation and development: a cross-disciplinary overview

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 234-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Maria Cardoso da Silva ◽  
Julie Topf
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
National Level ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Conservation Movement ◽  
Ecological Infrastructure ◽  
Development Agenda ◽  
The People ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Global And Local

SummaryThe ability of national governments to set and implement policies that protect biodiversity is currently facing widespread scepticism within the conservation movement. Here, we review the literature from several disciplines to outline a positive agenda for how the global conservation movement can address this. We combine the strengths of the people-centred and science-led conservation approaches to develop a framework that emphasizes the importance of ecological infrastructure for the long-term prosperity of human societies in an ever-changing world. We show that one of the major goals of the conservation movement (enhancing global ecological infrastructure to end species and ecosystem loss) remains central and irreplaceable within the broad sustainable development agenda. Then, we argue that the conservation community is now more prepared than ever to face the challenge of supporting societies in designing the ecological infrastructure they need to move towards more sustainable states. Because it is where global and local priorities meet, the national level is where impactful changes can be made. Furthermore, we point out two priorities for the conservation movement for the next decade: (1) substantially increase the amount of financial resources dedicated to conservation; and (2) advance the next generation of policies for ecological infrastructure.

Effect of COVID-19 Quarantine Period on a Married Woman With Special Reference to a TIER-II Selected City in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-148
Author(s):  
Elangovan Ramanujam ◽  
R. Sundareswaran ◽  
R. Suganya ◽  
Nashwa A. Kamal
Keyword(s):  
Special Reference ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Married Woman ◽  
Poverty Line ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Tier Ii ◽  
The People ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus that affects most of the people around the world in their respiratory system. The COVID-19 crisis has affected the married Indian women in a different way and overloads them in all aspects during the quarantine period. Across every domain, from health to the economy, safety to societal protection, education to occupation, this creates a greater impact irrespective of their professions. Psychological and economic impacts are felt especially by working women who are getting moderate and low income and close to the poverty line. Unpaid work has amplified at home, with children out of school, spouse work from home, intensified special care needs of elder persons, and other emotional uncertainties. To explore various impacts of lockdown due to COVID-19, this study analyzes the challenges and opportunities of a married woman with a special reference to TIER-II selected city in India.

scholarly journals A Global Scale Estimate of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases Using Extreme Value Distributions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Aadhityaa ◽  
K. S. Kasiviswanathan ◽  
Idhayachandhiran Ilampooranan ◽  
B. Soundharajan ◽  
M. Balamurugan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Extreme Value Distributions ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The People ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Scale Estimate

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a global crisis and the governments are fighting rigorously to control the spread by imposing intervention measures and increasing the medical facilities. In order to tackle the crisis effectively we need to know the trajectories of number of the people infected (i.e. confirmed cases). Such information is crucial to government agencies for developing effective preparedness plans and strategies. We used a statistical modeling approach – extreme value distributions (EVDs) for projecting the future confirmed cases on a global scale. Using the 69 days data (from January 22, 2020 to March 30, 2020), the EVDs model predicted the number of confirmed cases from March 31, 2020 to April 9, 2020 (validation period) with an absolute percentage error < 15 % and then projected the number of confirmed cases until the end of June 2020. Also, we have quantified the uncertainty in the future projections due to the delay in reporting of the confirmed cases on a global scale. Based on the projections, we found that total confirmed cases would reach around 11.4 million globally by the end of June 2020.The USA may have 2.9 million number of confirmed cases followed by Spain-1.52 million and Italy-1.28 million.

Implication of COVID-19 on neurological complications with specific emphasis on alzheimer’s and parkinson’s disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ankita Sood ◽  
Ravi Goyal ◽  
Harshdeep Singh ◽  
Tapan Behl ◽  
Sandeep Arora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Parkinson’S Disease ◽  
Parkinson's Disease ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Neurological Complications ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Severity Of Disease ◽  
The People ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

: It is noticeable how the novel coronavirus has spread from the Wuhan region of China to the whole world, devastating the lives of people worldwide. All the data related to the precautionary measures, diagnosis, treatment, and even the epidemiological data are being made freely accessible and reachable in a very little time as well as being rapidly published to save humankind from this pandemic. There might be neurological complications of COVID-19 and patients suffering from neurodegenerative conditions like Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease might have repercussions as a result of the pandemic. In this review article, we have discussed the effect of SARS-CoV-2 viral infection on the people affected with neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s. It primarily emphasizes two issues, i.e., vulnerability to infection and modifications of course of the disease concerning the clinical neurological manifestations, the advancement of the disease and novel approaches to support health care professionals in disease management, the susceptibility to these diseases, and impact on the severity of disease and management.

Challenges, Concerns, and Perspectives for Poland's Energy Transition during Global COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-173
Author(s):  
Andrzej Lorkowski ◽  
Robert Jeszke
Keyword(s):  
Internal Energy ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy Transformation ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
Current Discussion ◽  
The Face ◽  
National Governments ◽  
The Eu ◽  
At Home

The whole world is currently struggling with one of the most disastrous pandemics to hit in modern times – Covid-19. Individual national governments, the WHO and worldwide media organisations are appealing for humanity to universally stay at home, to limit contact and to stay safe in the ongoing fight against this unseen threat. Economists are concerned about the devastating effect this will have on the markets and possible outcomes. One of the countries suffering from potential destruction of this situation is Poland. In this article we will explain how difficult internal energy transformation is, considering the long-term crisis associated with the extraction and usage of coal, the European Green Deal and current discussion on increasing the EU 2030 climate ambitions. In the face of an ongoing pandemic, the situation becomes even more challenging with each passing day.

The Role of Physical Exercise and Diet in management of Medoroga (STHAULYA) Reference Novel Coronavirus Covid 19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1585-1592
Author(s):  
Roshna Sukhdeoji Bhutada
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin D ◽  
Vitamin C ◽  
Physical Movement ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
Exercise Routine ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
General Wellbeing

Nowadays, due to Covid-19 pandemic circumstance, numerous individuals are Staying from home. Understudy is additionally concern with the online class from home, because of which all physical movement of all individual has been stopped. Medoroga is one of the dominating metabolic problems and driving reason for mortality. Numerous patients with Covid infection 2019 (COVID-19) have identified with the metabolic disorder during the lockdown. The general wellbeing proposes (Work from Home, requests, gyms, terminations of garden and wellness focuses) to forestall Covid-19 spread can possibly decrease day by day physical movement. Ideas of Agni, Prakriti, strategy for victualing ought to be given equivalent consideration while choosing ones dietary and exercise routine to turn away/control Medoroga (STHAULYA). Organizing of diet is generally important to support insusceptibility. According to numerous investigates to give valuable pabulum which contains Zinc, Vitamin C, Vitamin D and invulnerability. It is practically equivalent to Medoroga referenced in Ayurveda compositions. Strick likeness outwardly inspected in both customary arrangement of medication and Ayurveda while portraying its causative components, outcomes and preventive part of exercise and diet in its administration. Striking is outwardly analyzed in both Traditional arrangements of medication and Ayurveda depicting its causative factors, and preventive capacity of movement and diet in its pandemic Covid-19.

Socioeconomic Challenges faced by Basin’s People in India

Think India ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-304
Author(s):  
Biplab Tripathy ◽  
Tanmoy Mondal
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
High Tide ◽  
North East ◽  
The People ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Major River ◽  
River Ganga ◽  
Basin Region ◽  
Basin Area

India is a subcontinent, there huge no of people lived in river basin area. In India there more or less 80% of people directly or indirectly depend on River. Ganga, Brahamputra in North and North East and Mahanadi, Govabori, Krishna, Kaveri, Narmoda, Tapti, Mahi in South are the major river basin in India. There each year due to flood and high tide lots of people are suffered in river basin region in India. These problems destroy the socio economic peace and hope of the people in river basin. There peoples are continuously suffered by lots of difficulties in sort or in long term basis. Few basin regions are always in high alert at the time of monsoon seasons. Sometime due to over migration from basin area, it becomes empty and creates an ultimate loss of resources in India and causes a dis-balance situation in this area.

Etude de l'aménagement d'une forêt classée au Mali avec la participation des populations riveraines - Données du problème et éléments de méthodologie | A Study of the Management of a State-Owned Forest in Mali with the Participation of the Population Living nearby - Issue under Investigation and Elements of Methodology

2000 ◽  
Vol 151 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-83
Author(s):  
Pascal Schneider ◽  
Jean-Pierre Sorg
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Research Methodology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Context ◽  
Forest Resources ◽  
The State ◽  
Commercial Use ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
The People

In and around the state-owned forest of Farako in the region of Sikasso, Mali, a large-scale study focused on finding a compromise allowing the existential and legitimate needs of the population to be met and at the same time conserving the forest resources in the long term. The first step in research was to sketch out the rural socio-economic context and determine the needs for natural resources for autoconsumption and commercial use as well as the demand for non-material forest services. Simultaneously, the environmental context of the forest and the resources available were evaluated by means of inventories with regard to quality and quantity. According to an in-depth comparison between demand and potential, there is a differentiated view of the suitability of the forest to meet the needs of the people living nearby. Propositions for a multipurpose management of the forest were drawn up. This contribution deals with some basic elements of research methodology as well as with results of the study.

Populism and Liberal Democracy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takis S. Pappas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Liberal Democracy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comprehensive Theory ◽  
The People ◽  
Original Definition ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Great Relevance ◽  
Definition Of

Based on an original definition of modern populism as “democratic illiberalism” and many years of meticulous research, Takis Pappas marshals extraordinary empirical evidence from Argentina, Greece, Peru, Italy, Venezuela, Ecuador, Hungary, the United States, Spain, and Brazil to develop a comprehensive theory about populism. He addresses all key issues in the debate about populism and answers significant questions of great relevance for today’s liberal democracy, including: • What is modern populism and how can it be differentiated from comparable phenomena like nativism and autocracy? • Where in Latin America has populism become most successful? Where in Europe did it emerge first? Why did its rise to power in the United States come so late? • Is Trump a populist and, if so, could he be compared best with Venezuela’s Chávez, France’s Le Pens, or Turkey’s Erdoğan? • Why has populism thrived in post-authoritarian Greece but not in Spain? And why in Argentina and not in Brazil? • Can populism ever succeed without a charismatic leader? If not, what does leadership tell us about how to challenge populism? • Who are “the people” who vote for populist parties, how are these “made” into a group, and what is in their minds? • Is there a “populist blueprint” that all populists use when in power? And what are the long-term consequences of populist rule? • What does the expansion, and possibly solidification, of populism mean for the very nature and future of contemporary democracy? Populism and Liberal Democracy will change the ways the reader understands populism and imagines the prospects of liberal democracy.

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