COVID-19 mortality: positive correlation with cloudiness and sunlight but no correlation with latitude in Europe

AbstractWe systematically investigated an ongoing debate about the possible correlation between SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) epidemiological outcomes and solar exposure in European countries, in the period of March – August 2020. For each country, we correlated its mortality data with solar insolation (watt/square metre) and objective sky cloudiness (as cloud fraction) derived from satellite weather data. We found a positive correlation between the monthly mortality rate and the overall cloudiness in that month (Pearson’s r(35)=.779, P<.001; linear model fitting the data, adjusted R2 =0.59). In Europe, in colder months, approximately 34% to 58% of the variance in COVID-19 mortality/million appears to be predicted by the cloudiness fraction of the sky, except in August in which only ∼15% of the variance was explained. The data show a low, negative correlation between the mortality rate with the overall insolation received by the country area in that entire month (Pearson’s r(35)=-0.622, P<.001). Additionally, we did not find any statistically significant correlation between the mortality and the latitude of the countries when the “latitude of a country” was precisely defined as the average landmass location (country centroid). The unexpected correlation found between cloudiness and mortality could perhaps be explained by the following: 1) heavy cloudiness is linked with colder outdoor surfaces, which might aid virus survival; 2) reduced evaporation rate; 3) moderate pollution may be linked to both cloudiness and mortality; and 4) large-scale behavioural changes due to cloudiness (which perhaps drives people to spend more time indoors and thus facilitates indoor contamination).

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Decline of Pearson’s r with categorization of variables: a large-scale simulation

Behaviormetrika ◽

10.1007/s41237-019-00089-1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (2) ◽

pp. 389-399

Author(s):

Takahiro Onoshima ◽

Kenpei Shiina ◽

Takashi Ueda ◽

Saori Kubo

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Large Scale Simulation ◽

Pearson's R ◽

Pearson’S R

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Farmers Education and Risk Perceptions of Large-Scale Mining in Ghana

Current World Environment ◽

10.12944/cwe.15.special-issue1.04 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol Special Issue (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fred Owusu-Ansah

Keyword(s):

Risk Perceptions ◽

Large Scale ◽

Social Protection ◽

Natural Capital ◽

Economic Status ◽

Empirical Studies ◽

Pearson's R ◽

Mining Project ◽

Mining Projects ◽

Pearson’S R

Empirical studies that use household farmers as unit of analysis to examine the relative influence of education on risk perceptions of large scale mining projects in Ghana are virtually absent. This study combined evidence from literature, mixed methods, Pearson’s Chi square (X2) and correlation analyses. Systematic random sampling was used in selecting farmers. Data obtained from 725 households was analyzed using SPSS. The hypothesis “education has no relationship with farmers’ risk perceptions of large-scale mining projects in Ghana” was tested. Results revealed that large-scale mining has both positive and negative image in the minds of farmers. Farmers’ education strongly correlated with their knowledge of the state of the environment and natural resources before the arrival of the mining project [Pearson’s (X2) = 26.743; p = 0.024; Pearson's (r) = 0.791; p = 0.010]. Statistical evidence exists to support the claim that local communities protested against the mining project due to their ability to anticipate adverse effects of the project on environmental quality. Education significantly influenced farmers’ ability to link sources of livelihood to environmental and resource protection [Pearson's (X2) = 25.516, p = 0.043; Pearson's (r) = 0.640; p = 0.036]. Farmers’ risk perceptions of large scale mining as a threat to: community’s natural capital; traditional systems; environmental and social protection regime; established administrative procedures and good conducts of public officials; as well as being a threat to rural livelihood have serious implications for achieving the goals of sustainable mining in Ghana. Nonetheless, farmers associated mining as agent of economic development, and education significantly influenced this assessment [Pearson’s (X2) = 28.093, p = 0.021; Pearson’s (r) = 0.077; p = 0.041]. This paper concludes that education is a significant predictor in risk perception assessment. Robust environmental and social protection regimes, strong public institutions and improved socio-economic status are good predictors of farmers’ risk perceptions of mining.

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Google Trends Data: A Potential New Tool for Monitoring the Opioid Crisis

European Addiction Research ◽

10.1159/000517302 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Abhishek Ghosh ◽

Adam Bisaga ◽

Simranjit Kaur ◽

Tathagata Mahintamani

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Drug Overdose ◽

The State ◽

Google Trends ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Opioid Overdose ◽

Positive Correlation ◽

Search Volume ◽

Changepoint Analysis ◽

Overdose Mortality

Introduction: There is a need to strengthen the standard surveillance of the opioid overdose crisis in the USA. The role of Google Trends (GT) was explored in this context. Methods: In this study, a systemic GT search was done for a period from January 2004 to December 2018. “Naloxone” and “drug overdose” were chosen as search inputs. By using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing, we locally regressed and smoothed the relative search data generated by the GT search. We conducted a changepoint analysis (CPA) to detect significant statistical changes in the “naloxone” trend from 2004 to 2018. Cross-correlation function analyses were done to examine the correlation between 2 time series: year-wise relative search volume (RSV) for “naloxone” and “drug overdose” with the age-adjusted drug overdose mortality rate. Pearson’s correlation was performed for the state-wise age-adjusted mortality rate due to drug overdose and RSV for “naloxone” and “drug overdose.” Results: Smoothed and regressed GT of “naloxone” were similar to the “opioid overdose” trend published by the National Center for Health Statistics. The CPA showed 2 statistically significant points in 2011 and 2015. CPA of year-wise RSV for “naloxone” and “drug overdose” showed significantly positive correlation with the age-adjusted drug overdose mortality at lag zero. State-wise RSV for “naloxone” and “drug overdose” too showed a strong and significant positive correlation with the state-wise mortality data. Discussion/Conclusion: Inexpensive, publicly accessible, real-time GT data could supplement and strengthen the monitoring of opioid overdose epidemic if used in conjunction with the existing official data sources.

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CODEM Instrument

GeroPsych ◽

10.1024/1662-9647/a000100 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

pp. 23-31 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Anne Kuemmel (This author contributed eq ◽

Julia Haberstroh (This author contributed ◽

Johannes Pantel

Keyword(s):

Convergent Validity ◽

Interrater Reliability ◽

Discriminant Validity ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Intraclass Correlation ◽

Well Being ◽

Communication Behavior ◽

People With Dementia ◽

Pearson's R ◽

Pearson’S R

Communication and communication behaviors in situational contexts are essential conditions for well-being and quality of life in people with dementia. Measuring methods, however, are limited. The CODEM instrument, a standardized observational communication behavior assessment tool, was developed and evaluated on the basis of the current state of research in dementia care and social-communicative behavior. Initially, interrater reliability was examined by means of videoratings (N = 10 people with dementia). Thereupon, six caregivers in six German nursing homes observed 69 residents suffering from dementia and used CODEM to rate their communication behavior. The interrater reliability of CODEM was excellent (mean κ = .79; intraclass correlation = .91). Statistical analysis indicated that CODEM had excellent internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = .95). CODEM also showed excellent convergent validity (Pearson’s R = .88) as well as discriminant validity (Pearson’s R = .63). Confirmatory factor analysis verified the two-factor solution of verbal/content aspects and nonverbal/relationship aspects. With regard to the severity of the disease, the content and relational aspects of communication exhibited different trends. CODEM proved to be a reliable, valid, and sensitive assessment tool for examining communication behavior in the field of dementia. CODEM also provides researchers a feasible examination tool for measuring effects of psychosocial intervention studies that strive to improve communication behavior and well-being in dementia.

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Perbandingan Linieritas Dalam Pendeteksian Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Angka Kematian Bayi Di Provinsi Aceh

Talenta Conference Series Science and Technology (ST) ◽

10.32734/st.v2i2.460 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Desfira Ahya ◽

Inas Salsabila ◽

Miftahuddin

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Infant Mortality ◽

Linear Model ◽

Health Workers ◽

Additive Model ◽

Infant Mortality Rate ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Important Indicator ◽

Penalized Spline ◽

Aceh Province

Angka Kematian Bayi/ Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) merupakan indikator penting dalam mengukur keberhasilan pengembangan kesehatan. Nilai IMR juga dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui tingkat kesehatan ibu, kondisi kesehatan lingkungan dan secara umum, tingkat pengembangan sosio-ekonomi masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh model IMR terbaik menggunakan tiga pendekatan: Model Linear, Model Linear Tergeneralisir dan Model Aditif Tergeneralisir dengan basis P-spline. Sebagai tambahan, berdasarkan model tersebut akan terlihat variabel yang mempengaruhi tingkat kematian bayi di provinsi Aceh. Penelitian ini menggunakan data jumlah kematian bayi di tahun 2013-2015. Data dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari Profil Kesehatan Aceh. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik dalam menjelaskan angka kematian bayi di provinsi Aceh tahun 2013-2015 ialah Model Linear Tergeneralisir dengan basis P-spline menggunakan parameter penghalusan 100 dan titik knots 8. Faktor yang sangat mempengaruhi angka kematian ialah jumlah pekerja yang sehat. Infant mortality rate (IMR) is an important indicator in measuring the success of health development. IMR also can be used to knowing the level of maternal health, environmental health conditions and generally the level of socio-economic development in community. This research aims to get the best model of infant mortality data using three approaches: Linear Model, Generalized Linear Model and Generalized Additive Model with Penalized Spline (P-spline) base. In addition, based on the model can be seen the variables that affect to infant mortality in Aceh Province. This research uses data number of infant mortality in Aceh Province period 2013-2015. The data in this research were obtained from Aceh’s Health Profile. The results show that the best model can be explain infant mortality rate in Aceh Province period 2013-2015 is GAM model with P-spline base using smoothing parameter 100 and knots 8. Factor that high effect to infant mortality is number of health workers.

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Pre-Planned and Non-Planned Agility in Patients Ongoing Rehabilitation after Knee Surgery: Design, Reliability and Validity of the Newly Developed Testing Protocols

Diagnostics ◽

10.3390/diagnostics11010146 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 146

Author(s):

Ivan Peric ◽

Miodrag Spasic ◽

Dario Novak ◽

Sergej Ostojic ◽

Damir Sekulic

Keyword(s):

Total Knee Arthroplasty ◽

Body Mass ◽

Knee Arthroplasty ◽

Arthroscopic Surgery ◽

The Body ◽

Clinical Population ◽

Pearson's R ◽

Total Knee ◽

Type Of Surgery ◽

Pearson’S R

Background: Due to its association with the risk of falling and consequent injury, the importance of agility is widely recognized, but no study so far has examined the different facets of agility in an untrained/clinical population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability, validity, and correlates of newly developed tests of non-planned agility (NPA) and pre-planned agility (PPA) in an untrained/clinical sample. Methods: The sample comprised 38 participants older than 40 years (22 females, age: 56.1 ± 17.3 years, height: 170.4 ± 10.8 cm, mass: 82.54 ± 14.79 kg) who were involved in a rehabilitation program following total knee arthroplasty and knee arthroscopy. Variables included age, gender, type of surgery, history of fall, anthropometrics/body composition, and newly developed tests of NPA and PPA. Results: The results showed the high inter-testing- (ICC > 0.95, CV < 9%), and intra-testing-reliability (ICC > 0.96, CV < 9) of the newly developed tests. PPA and NPA were found to be valid in differentiation between age groups (>50 yrs. vs. <50 yrs.), and genders, with better performance in younger participants and males. Only NPA differentiated participants according to type of surgery, with better performance in those who had arthroscopic surgery, than those who had total knee arthroplasty. No differences in NPA and PPA were established between groups based on fall-history. In females, the body mass (Pearson’s r = 0.58 and 0.59, p < 0.001) and body fatness (Pearson’s r = 0.64 and 0.66, p < 0.001) were negatively correlated, while the lean body mass (Pearson’s r = 0.70 and 0.68, p < 0.001) was positively correlated with PPA and NPA. The NPA and PPA were highly correlated (Pearson’s r = 0.98, p < 0.001). Conclusions: We found that the proposed tests are reliable when evaluating agility characteristics in an untrained/clinical population after knee arthroplasty/arthroscopy. Further evaluation of the specific validity of the proposed tests in other specific subsamples is warranted.

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Abstract P261: Intensive Systolic Blood Pressure Lowering Will Prevent Over 100,000 Deaths Annually

Hypertension ◽

10.1161/hyp.68.suppl_1.p261 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 68 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Holly Kramer ◽

Adam Bress ◽

Srinivasan Beddhu ◽

Paul Muntner ◽

Richard S Cooper

Keyword(s):

Blood Pressure ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Systolic Blood Pressure ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Blood Pressure Lowering ◽

Cvd Risk ◽

Pressure Lowering ◽

Annual Mortality ◽

The U.S

Background: The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) trial randomized 9,361 adults aged ≥50 years at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk without diabetes or stroke to intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering (≤120 mmHg) or standard SBP lowering (≤140 mmHg). After a median follow up of 3.26 years, all-cause mortality was 27% (95% CI 40%, 10%) lower with intensive SBP lowering. We estimated the potential number of prevented deaths with intensive SBP lowering in the U.S. population meeting SPRINT criteria. Methods: SPRINT eligibility criteria were applied to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2006, a representative survey of the U.S. population, linked with the mortality data through December 2011. Eligibility included (1) age ≥50 years with (2) SBP 130-180 mmHg depending on number of antihypertensive classes being taken, and (3) presence of ≥1 CVD risk conditions (history of coronary heart disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 20 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , 10-year Framingham risk score ≥15%, or age ≥75 years). Adults with diabetes, stroke history, >1 g/day proteinuria, heart failure, on dialysis, or eGFR<20 ml/min/1.73m 2 were excluded. Annual mortality rates for adults meeting SPRINT criteria were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods and the expected reduction in mortality rates with intensive SBP lowering in SPRINT was used to determine the number of potential deaths prevented. Analyses accounted for the complex survey design. Results: An estimated 18.1 million U.S. adults met SPRINT criteria with 7.4 million taking blood pressure lowering medications. The mean age was 68.6 years and 83.2% and 7.4% were non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black, respectively. The annual mortality rate was 2.2% (95% CI 1.9%, 2.5%) and intensive SBP lowering was projected to prevent 107,453 deaths per year (95% CI 45,374 to 139,490). Among adults with SBP ≥145 mmHg, the annual mortality rate was 2.5% (95% CI 2.1%, 3.0%) and intensive SBP lowering was projected to prevent 60,908 deaths per year (95% CI 26, 455 to 76, 792). Conclusions: We project intensive SBP lowering could prevent over 100,000 deaths per year of intensive treatment.

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Molecular Bases for Pharmacotherapy of COVID -19

Medical & Clinical Research ◽

10.33140/mcr.06.024 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (5) ◽

Keyword(s):

T Cells ◽

Immune System ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Large Scale ◽

Tissue Injury ◽

Diffuse Alveolar Damage ◽

New Drugs ◽

Patient Death ◽

Double Positive ◽

Host Cell Membrane

The most large-scale challenge aroused at the beginning of Y2020 was the global spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a zoonotic beta-coronavirus. One year after we have nearly 270 thousand confirmed cases with mortality rate 1.3% in Georgia, and almost 120 billion confirmed cases with mortality rate 2.2% worldwide. As it is known, COVID-19 is triggered by coronavirus species 2 or SARS-CoV-2, which inters in the human body by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) molecule on the host cell membrane via the viral spike protein and expresses complex pathological changes in many organs linked with vascular injuries. The most severe expression of this disease exposed by microscopic examination is bilateral diffuse alveolar damage with fibroblasts exudates, indicating Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Immune system plays crucial role in tissue damage. As clinical researches showed, the number of peripheral CD4+ and CD8 + T cells were significantly reduced, while their activity was hyper-expressed as evidenced by the high proportions of HLADR (CD4 3•47%) and CD38 (CD8 39•4%) double-positive fractions. Moreover, there was identified an amplified concentration of highly pro inflammatory CCR6+ Th17 in CD4 T cells. This date explains that severe tissue injury in later stages of COVID-19 is depend on the immune system abnormalities, but not on SARS-CoV-2 direct cell destruction. In the same time the scientists and doctors found out abnormalities in coagulation function in most of the severe COVID-19 patients, which were expressed in elevation of D-Dimer level and prolongation of prothrombin time, some of whom terminated in disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), deep venous thrombosis (DVT) or fatal pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE). At the later stage in some severe patients it was identified thrombocytopenia as a result of excessive platelets consuming, which significantly affected on treatment and prognosis. More than 300 drugs are used for the treatment of COVID-19 worldwide. Now, the most popular treatments include Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Betamethasone, Tocilizumab, anti HIV drugs, and convalescent plasma. In the same time, WHO supports vaccines distribution for immunization. Currently, almost 8 vaccines are approved by different countries and more than 180 vaccines are under the clinical trails. Conclusion & Significance: Up till now it is challenging problem to combat SARS-CoV-2 with not well-defined origin and inexplicable biological characteristics as well as to control a pandemic of COVID-19 with such a high R0, a long incubation period and different disease outcomes. Unfortunately, we have limited understandings of particular mechanisms running to abnormal expression of immune system and coagulation processes. In the same time, we don’t have complete picture of vasculopathy leading to the tissue injury and patient death. Therefore, it is problematic to manage SARS-CoV-2 induced processes successfully using available drugs with no significant restoring effect on the organ damages in severe COVID-19 patients. So, we need new targets and new drugs for the prophylaxes and treatment of COVID-19 even we have vaccines available.

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Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (6) ◽

pp. 1407-1423 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

R. D. Field ◽

A. C. Spessa ◽

N. A. Aziz ◽

A. Camia ◽

A. Cantin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southeast Asia ◽

Large Scale ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Dry Season ◽

Weather Data ◽

Data Sets ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Mato Grosso ◽

Global Database

Abstract. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC = 1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRA's precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere–ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

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Biases in the estimation of size-dependent mortality models: advantages of a semiparametric approach

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x09-047 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 39 (8) ◽

pp. 1430-1443 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Ghislain Vieilledent ◽

Benoît Courbaud ◽

Georges Kunstler ◽

Jean-François Dhôte ◽

James S. Clark

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Picea Abies ◽

Abies Alba ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Strongly Nonlinear ◽

Semiparametric Approach ◽

Mortality Models ◽

Large Trees ◽

Parametric Functions ◽

Related Mortality

Mortality rate is thought to show a U-shape relationship to tree size. This shape could result from a decrease of competition-related mortality as diameter increases, followed by an increase of senescence and disturbance-related mortality for large trees. Modeling mortality rate as a function of diameter is nevertheless difficult, first because this relationship is strongly nonlinear, and second because data can be unbalanced, with few observations for large trees. Parametric functions, which are inflexible and sensitive to the distribution of observations, tend to introduce biases in mortality rate estimates. In this study we use mortality data for Abies alba Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. to demonstrate that mortality rate estimates for extreme diameters were biased when using classical parametric functions. We then propose a semiparametric approach allowing a more flexible relationship between mortality and diameter. We show that the relatively shade-tolerant A. alba has a lower annual mortality rate (2.75%) than P. abies (3.78%) for small trees (DBH <15 cm). Picea abies, supposedly more sensitive to bark beetle attacks and windthrows, had a higher mortality rate (up to 0.46%) than A. alba (up to 0.30%) for large trees (DBH ≥50 cm).

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