scholarly journals Projecting the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out: a modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Cai ◽  
Juan Yang ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Cheng Peng ◽  
Xinhua Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Young Population ◽  
Children And Young Adolescents ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Roll Out

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. In China, over 85% of individuals aged ≥12 years have been vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages), while children aged 0-11 years are currently not eligible for vaccination (as of September 2021). The aim of this work is to assess whether the importation of Delta variant infections will shift the COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics to simulate the epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years (as of September 2021), and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could lead to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 97% across the currently eligible age groups. The symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalisation are projected to shift towards children and young adolescents, with 13% of symptomatic infections and 30% of hospitalisations occurring in those aged 0-11 years. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3-11 years is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalisations within this age group (54% and 81%, respectively), but would have a low impact on protecting infants (aged 0-2 years). Our findings highlight the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by simultaneously extending the target population and elevating vaccine effectiveness.

scholarly journals Influenza-associated disease burden in mainland China: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Li ◽  
Yinzi Chen ◽  
Xiling Wang ◽  
Hongjie Yu
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Publication Bias ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Outpatient Visit ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
All Cause Mortality

AbstractInfluenza causes substantial morbidity and mortality. Many original studies have been carried out to estimate disease burden of influenza in mainland China, while the full disease burden has not yet been systematically reviewed. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the burden of influenza-associated mortality, hospitalization, and outpatient visit in mainland China. We searched 3 English and 4 Chinese databases with studies published from 2005 to 2019. Studies reporting population-based rates of mortality, hospitalization, or outpatient visit attributed to seasonal influenza were included in the analysis. Fixed-effects or random-effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates of influenza-associated mortality depending on the degree of heterogeneity. Meta-regression was applied to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plots and Egger’s test. We identified 30 studies eligible for inclusion with 17, 8, 5 studies reporting mortality, hospitalization, and outpatient visit associated with influenza, respectively. The pooled influenza-associated all-cause mortality rates were 14.33 and 122.79 per 100,000 persons for all ages and ≥ 65 years age groups, respectively. Studies were highly heterogeneous in aspects of age group, cause of death, statistical model, geographic location, and study period, and these factors could explain 60.14% of the heterogeneity in influenza-associated mortality. No significant publication bias existed in estimates of influenza-associated all-cause mortality. Children aged < 5 years were observed with the highest rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations and ILI outpatient visits. People aged ≥ 65 years and < 5 years contribute mostly to mortality and morbidity burden due to influenza, which calls for targeted vaccination policy for older adults and younger children in mainland China.

scholarly journals OP0248 PREMATURE MORTALITY BURDEN FOR SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS: NATIONWIDE POPULATION-BASED STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 156.1-156
Author(s):  
E. Yen ◽  
D. Singh ◽  
M. Wu ◽  
R. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
United States ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Over Time

Background:Premature mortality is an important way to quantify disease burden. Patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) can die prematurely of disease, however, the premature mortality burden of SSc is unknown. The years of potential life lost (YPLL), in addition to age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in younger ages, can be used as measures of premature death.Objectives:To evaluate the premature mortality burden of SSc by calculating: 1) the proportions of SSc deaths as compared to deaths from all other causes (non-SSc) by age groups over time, 2) ASMR for SSc relative to non-SSc-ASMR by age groups over time, and 3) the YPLL for SSc relative to other autoimmune diseases.Methods:This is a population-based study using a national mortality database of all United States residents from 1968 through 2015, with SSc recorded as the underlying cause of death in 46,798 deaths. First, we calculated the proportions of deaths for SSc and non-SSc by age groups for each of 48 years and performed joinpoint regression trend analysis1to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) in the proportion of deaths by age. Second, we calculated ASMR for SSc and non-SSc causes and ratio of SSc-ASMR to non-SSc-ASMR by age groups for each of 48 years, and performed joinpoint analysis to estimate APC and AAPC for these measures (SSc-ASMR, non-SSc-ASMR, and SSc-ASMR/non-SSc-ASMR ratio) by age. Third, to calculate YPLL, each decedent’s age at death from a specific disease was subtracted from an arbitrary age limit of 75 years for years 2000 to 2015. The years of life lost were then added together to yield the total YPLL for each of 13 preselected autoimmune diseases.Results:23.4% of all SSc deaths as compared to 13.5% of non-SSc deaths occurred at <45 years age in 1968 (p<0.001, Chi-square test). In this age group, the proportion of annual deaths decreased more for SSc than for non-SSc causes: from 23.4% in 1968 to 5.7% in 2015 at an AAPC of -2.2% (95% CI, -2.4% to -2.0%) for SSc, and from 13.5% to 6.9% at an AAPC of -1.5% (95% CI, -1.9% to -1.1%) for non-SSc. Thus, in 2015, the proportion of SSc and non-SSc deaths at <45 year age was no longer significantly different. Consistently, SSc-ASMR decreased from 1.0 (95% CI, 0.8 to 1.2) in 1968 to 0.4 (95% CI, 0.3 to 0.5) per million persons in 2015, a cumulative decrease of 60% at an AAPC of -1.9% (95% CI, -2.5% to -1.2%) in <45 years old. The ratio of SSc-ASMR to non-SSc-ASMR also decreased in this age group (cumulative -20%, AAPC -0.3%). In <45 years old, the YPLL for SSc was 65.2 thousand years as compared to 43.2 thousand years for rheumatoid arthritis, 18.1 thousand years for dermatomyositis,146.8 thousand years for myocarditis, and 241 thousand years for type 1 diabetes.Conclusion:Mortality at younger ages (<45 years) has decreased at a higher pace for SSc than from all other causes in the United States over a 48-year period. However, SSc accounted for more years of potential life lost than rheumatoid arthritis and dermatomyositis combined. These data warrant further studies on SSc disease burden, which can be used to develop and prioritize public health programs, assess performance of changes in treatment, identify high-risk populations, and set research priorities and funding.References:[1]Yen EY….Singh RR. Ann Int Med 2017;167:777-785.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Contact surveys reveal heterogeneities in age-group contributions to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Chin ◽  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

SARS-CoV-2 is spread primarily through person-to-person contacts. Quantifying population contact rates is important for understanding the impact of physical distancing policies and for modeling COVID-19, but contact patterns have changed substantially over time due to shifting policies and behaviors. There are surprisingly few empirical estimates of age-structured contact rates in the United States both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that capture these changes. Here, we use data from six waves of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS), which collected detailed contact data between March 22, 2020 and February 15, 2021 across six metropolitan designated market areas (DMA) in the United States. Contact rates were low across all six DMAs at the start of the pandemic. We find steady increases in the mean and median number of contacts across these localities over time, as well as a greater proportion of respondents reporting a high number of contacts. We also find that young adults between ages 18 and 34 reported more contacts on average compared to other age groups. The 65 and older age group consistently reported low levels of contact throughout the study period. To understand the impact of these changing contact patterns, we simulate COVID-19 dynamics in each DMA using an age-structured mechanistic model. We compare results from models that use BICS contact rate estimates versus commonly used alternative contact rate sources. We find that simulations parameterized with BICS estimates give insight into time-varying changes in relative incidence by age group that are not captured in the absence of these frequently updated estimates. We also find that simulation results based on BICS estimates closely match observed data on the age distribution of cases, and changes in these distributions over time. Together these findings highlight the role of different age groups in driving and sustaining SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. We also show the utility of repeated contact surveys in revealing heterogeneities in the epidemiology of COVID-19 across localities in the United States.

scholarly journals An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260632
Author(s):  
Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa ◽  
Daniel Dempsey ◽  
Suzanne Van Osch ◽  
Stephen Kinsella ◽  
Kevin Burke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Intervention Cost ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Predictive Approaches

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID–19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID–19 variants have a strong association with age, while restrictive lockdown measures have association with negative mental health outcomes in some age groups. Reduced economic prospects may also afflict some age cohorts more than others. Motivated by this, we propose a model to describe COVID–19 community spread incorporating the role of age-specific social interactions. Through a flexible parameterisation of an age-structured deterministic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) model, we provide a means for characterising different forms of lockdown which may impact specific age groups differently. Social interactions are represented through age group to age group contact matrices, which can be trained using available data and are thus locally adapted. This framework is easy to interpret and suitable for describing counterfactual scenarios, which could assist policy makers with regard to minimising morbidity balanced with the costs of prospective suppression strategies. Our work originates from an Irish context and we use disease monitoring data from February 29th 2020 to January 31st 2021 gathered by Irish governmental agencies. We demonstrate how Irish lockdown scenarios can be constructed using the proposed model formulation and show results of retrospective fitting to incidence rates and forward planning with relevant “what if / instead of” lockdown counterfactuals. Uncertainty quantification for the predictive approaches is described. Our formulation is agnostic to a specific locale, in that lockdown strategies in other regions can be straightforwardly encoded using this model.

scholarly journals Analysis of trends in total deaths and AIDS-related deaths certified at Mosvold Hospital, Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal, from 2003 to 2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C H Vaughan Williams
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Age At Death ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Roll Out

Objectives. To analyse mortality trends from deaths registered at Mosvold Hospital, Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal, and possible impact of programmes to treat and prevent HIV infection. Design. Longitudinal study of death certifications from 2003 to 2008. Setting. Mosvold Hospital mortuary, Ingwavuma. Subjects. Counterfoils of form 83/BI-1663, Notification/Register of Death/Stillbirths (Republic of South Africa, Department of Home Affairs), completed at Mosvold Hospital from January 2003 to December 2008. Outcome measures. Age at death, cause of death, patterns of deaths grouped by age, gender and cause of death. Results. AIDS-related deaths were the cause of 53% of deaths, particularly affecting the 20 - 59-year and under-5 age groups. Since 2005 there has been a decline in deaths in the 20 - 59 age group and an increase in average age at death. Conclusions. The decrease in mortality from 2005 may be associated with antiretroviral roll-out reducing mortality from AIDS-related illnesses.

scholarly journals Clinical Characteristics of Children with HIV Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment at HIV Clinics in Bloemfontein, South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-155
Author(s):  
Andrew Walubo ◽  
Refuoe Baleni ◽  
Hillary Mukudu ◽  
Henry Kambafwile ◽  
Mukesh Dhedha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Global Health ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
World Health ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Age Group ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Number Of Children

Background and Objective: Over the past 15 years, there have been three major updates to the South African national guidelines for the management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in children. The purpose of this study is to describe the clinical characteristics of children who were initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Bloemfontein, South Africa, following these national treatment guidelines. Methods: Clinical information during initiation of ART in children aged 0-13 years was obtained from five HIV clinics in Bloemfontein from 2004 to 2019 as part of the establishment of an antiretroviral (ARV) pediatric registry at the University of the Free State. Data were analyzed for patient demographics, clinical presentation (World Health Organization (WHO) HIV-staging, growth rate and comorbid conditions), types of investigations done, and medicines prescribed. Results: The number of children initiated on ART increased from 168 in the period 2004-2009 to 349 (107.8%) in 2010-2014, and then dropped to 162 in the period 2015-2019. The increase in 2010-2014 was mainly in the <2 years age group by 54.8%, and in the 5 to 10 years age group by 344.4%. In the same period, the number of children with severe illness (WHO HIV-stage 4) decreased by 20.7%, while those with mild to moderate illness (WHO HIV-stage 2 and 3) increased by 17.3%. HIV infection was more severe in children under two years as more patients in this age group presented with WHO HIV-stages 3 and 4, severe underweight (below 3rd percentile), severely suppressed CD4 count (< 25%), and a high viral load (> 1000 copies/ml). There was increased use of ABC/3TC/LPVr in the < 3-year age group and ABC/3TC/EFV in the > 3-year age group. There was reduced use of the stavudine and other regimens. Conclusion and Global Health Implications: More children were started on ART and safer ARV drugs. Children under 2 years were the most debilitated by HIV, and there was an increase in HIV prevalence among children > 5 years. New strategies for the prevention and management of HIV among children in these two age groups are needed.   Copyright © 2021 Walubo et al. Published by Global Health and Education Projects, Inc. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in this journal, is properly cited.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
David W. Dick ◽  
Lauren Childs ◽  
Zhilan Feng ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Gergely Röst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Canadian Population ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Age Structured Model ◽  
Do So

COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60–80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12–29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.

scholarly journals Measles immunity in different population groups

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-84
Author(s):  
M. A. Belopolskaya ◽  
T. D. Grigoryeva ◽  
V. Yu. Avrutin ◽  
D. V. Potanina ◽  
A. V. Dmitriev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Young Population ◽  
Protective Level ◽  
Passive Haemagglutination ◽  
Diagnostic Center ◽  
Measles Antibodies ◽  
Measles Outbreaks ◽  
Igg Level

Objective: to examine the state of the immunity to measles in different age groups.Materials and methods: In 2018, 4444 people were examined at the Diagnostic Center (virological). Among them, 3783 people were examined using the passive haemagglutination test for measles (manufactured by Pasteur Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Russia). In the remaining 661 cases, the IgG to measles were detected using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) by VektoMeaseles IgG test (manufactured by Vector-Best, Russia). The correlation between the measles IgG level (ELISA) and the age was examined in 518 patients. Results: In this study, the immunity to measles was shown to be insufficient in all groups of observed people. Even among medical staff, nearly 10% had no protective level of measles antibodies. We have shown that the correlation between the measles IgG level and the age is statistically significant, so that the number of seronegative persons in different age groups differs significantly. Conclusion: The highest ratio of seronegative individuals was found in the age group between 18 and 25 years (52,33%), which can lead to serious measles outbreaks. Hence, this study confirms a strong need for additional immunization in all groups and especially in young population.

scholarly journals Retrospective Study of the Mandibular Condyle Fracture in Children and Young Adolescents

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Sooji Choi ◽  
JeongKeun Lee ◽  
SeungIl Song ◽  
Seunghye Kim
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mandibular Condyle ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
Etiologic Factor ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Young Adolescents ◽  
Frequent Site ◽  
Children And Young Adolescents ◽  
Condyle Fracture

The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate etiology, clinical features, and treatment modalities of the mandibular condyle fracture in children and young adolescents. This study was conducted based on medical records and radiographic examinations of 44 pediatric patients. Patients received treatment under diagnosis of mandibular condylar fracture. They were divided into 4 groups according to their age. The involvement of condyle in the mandible fracture occurred in higher percentage in younger age groups. Falling was the most common etiologic factor in all age group, especially in children with age under 7. Condyle head was the most frequent site of fracture in age group of 4-7 whereas fracture tends to occur in lower condylar areas in older groups. In 54.5% of the mandibular condyle fracture, symphysis fracture was accompanied. Teeth injury occurred in higher incidency when condyle fracture accompanied symphysis fracture. Conservative treatments were applied to 43 out of 44 patients.

scholarly journals Profile of PAP smears done in a tertiary centre in North Kerala

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enid Elizabeth Thomas ◽  
Jayasree Anandabhavan Kumaran
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Cervical Cancer Screening ◽  
Precancerous Lesions ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cancer Control ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Pap Smears ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Cervical Smears

Background: In India, cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women. WHO sponsored expert group meeting on “Strategies for Cervical cancer Control” recommends women of 30-59 years as target group for cervical cancer screening in India. Statistics show us that routine cervical cancer screening is not happening in India.Methods: This is a retrospective, descriptive, record based study done in a private medical college in Northern Kerala to study the profile of PAP smears during the years, 2014 and 2015 and to find out the appropriateness of the recommendations for age for cervical cancer screening. The data regarding cervical smears were analyzed using Epi info software.Results: A total of 3059 cervical smears were analyzed retrospectively. The age group of the study population ranged from 21 years to 93 years with the mean age of 46.3942±13.7 SD. Of all the smears, 2993 (97.84%) were Negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy (NILM). A total of 66 smears (2.15%) showed epithelial abnormality. All precancerous lesions, LSIL (29.03%), HSIL (37.04%) and Atypia (37.5%) were most commonly found in the age group of 61-70 years.Conclusions: The incidence of epithelial abnormality is found increasingly in older age groups. Limiting the target population for screening to 30-59 years, will result in missing out of many cases with precancerous lesions which in turn may fail our attempts in reducing the burden of cervical cancer. So a higher age group as target population needs to be set.

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