scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Preventive Methods Efficacy - A Simulation Case Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malak Saad ◽  
Emad M Boctor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Sample Population ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Health Target ◽  
The Face ◽  
Preventive Methods

The world has been facing the SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19, pandemic with different preventive methods including social distancing, face masking, screening tests (a.k.a. active surveillance), and vaccination. There are many publications and studies on the efficacy of each of these preventive methods for the last couple of years. Not all methods are readily available in each country and not all methods are accepted by all people in each society. In this study, we explore the interaction of the three preventive methods: face masking, vaccinations, and screening tests. We study a confined space to represent schools, businesses, or healthcare facilities and we model the spread of the COVID-19 virus for a 60-day period among a sample population while varying the percentage of people adopting one or more of the three preventive methods. To interpret the simulation results, we define a (Health Goal) target, for example achieving <5% infection rate, i.e., protecting 95% or more of the sample population. We then construct a (Decision Tree) that depicts all valid combinations that achieve this goal. Multiple scenarios are derived from the decision tree to guide decision makers in drawing effective policies to contain the virus spread. We demonstrate a ramping vaccination rate scenario, a removal of the face-masking mandate scenario, and a cost-minimizing goal scenario. The study highlights the efficacy of combining the three prevention methods to constrain the virus spread among the sample population. For example, results show that a combination of 0% vaccination rate, 6% daily screening test rate, and 80% face masking rate will achieve the target ≥95 protection rate, which can represent a scenario in which vaccination is not yet readily available. As the vaccination rate ramps up to 80% among the sample population, the screening test rate can be 0%, while the face masking rate can be as low as 5% to still achieve the health target. Many other scenarios are derived from this study to meet the defined health target, which represents the flexibility afforded to policy and decision makers when trying to adopt a combination of these preventive methods to contain virus spread. The study also reveals the higher efficiency of either the vaccination or screening test over face masking under the assumed virus transmissibility rates in the study.

scholarly journals William James and the Sustainable Transformation of Values, with a Case Study for Rethinking the American Dream

Human Arenas ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Croce
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Transformation ◽  
American Dream ◽  
William James ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Many

AbstractThis article addresses the call of the Psychology of Global Crises conference for linkage of academic work with social issues in three parts: First, examples from conference participants with their mix of bold calls for social transformation and realization of limits, a combination that generated few clear paths to achieving them. Second, presentation of Jamesian practical idealism with psychological insights for moving past impediments blocking implementation of ideals. And third, a case study of impacts from the most recent prominent crisis, the global pandemic of 2020, which threatens to exacerbate the many crises that had already been plaguing recent history. The tentacles of COVID’s impact into so many problems, starting with economic impacts from virus spread, present an opportunity to rethink the hope for constant economic growth, often expressed as the American Dream, an outlook that has driven so many of the problems surging toward crises. Jamesian awareness of the construction of ideological differences and encouragement of listening to those in disagreement provide not political solutions, but psychological preludes toward improvements in the face of crises.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

Empirical profiles of academic oral English proficiency from an international teaching assistant screening test

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikkyu Choi
Keyword(s):  
Training Program ◽  
Language Proficiency ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
English Proficiency ◽  
Subscale Score ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Spoken English ◽  
International Teaching Assistant ◽  
International Teaching

Language proficiency constitutes a crucial barrier for prospective international teaching assistants (ITAs). Many US universities administer screening tests to ensure that ITAs possess the required academic oral English proficiency for their TA duties. Such ITA screening tests often elicit a sample of spoken English, which is evaluated in terms of multiple aspects by trained raters. In this light, ITA screening tests provide an advantageous context in which to gather rich information about test taker performances. This study introduces a systematic way of extracting meaningful information for major stakeholders from an ITA screening test administered at a US university. In particular, this study illustrates how academic oral English proficiency profiles can be identified based on test takers’ subscale score patterns, and discusses how the resulting profiles can be used as feedback for ITA training and screening policy makers, the ITA training program of the university, ESL instructors, and test takers. The proficiency profiles were identified using finite mixture modeling based on the subscale scores of 960 test takers. The modeling results suggested seven profile groups. These groups were interpreted and labeled based on the characteristic subscale score patterns of their members. The implications of the results are discussed, with the main focus on how such information can help ITA policy makers, the ITA training program, ESL instructors, and test takers make important decisions.

Comparison of Two Screening Tests of Competency to Stand Trial for Defendants with Mental Retardation

1996 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 234-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Mental Retardation ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Competency To Stand Trial ◽  
Screening Tests

Scores for the four terms found by Smith and Hudson to predict competency to stand trial in defendants with mental retardation correlated significantly ( r = .65) with scores on the Competency Screening Test ( N = 34). Agreement between sets of scores was 84%.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL OF PROCESSED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN POLAND COMPARED TO BIOEAST COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol XXIII (4) ◽  
pp. 66-75
Author(s):  
Piotr Jurga
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Specific Product ◽  
Production Sector ◽  
Biomass Processing ◽  
Manufactured Products ◽  
The Face ◽  
Production Value

In the face of many global challenges, including ongoing climate change, policymakers are seeking viable solutions. The bioeconomy and its development are one of them. Partnerships, such as BIOEAST, are established to support the development of the bioeconomy in CEE countries. The conversion of biological biomass into new bio-products with high added value can contribute to a reduced environmental impact. One of the three economic sectors producing biomass for manufacturing is agriculture. Within the framework of this study, using the PRODCOM statistical list, which provides statistics on the production value of manufactured products, an assessment of manufacturing involving biomass processing utilizing biomass from the agricultural sector in countries of the BIOEAST initiative was performed. In BIOEAST Initiative countries, biomass from agriculture is predominantly used by the food production sector, followed by economic sectors, such as beverages, textiles, leather and wearing apparel. In several BIOEAST initiative countries, the percentage of the production value utilizing biomass from the agricultural sector is remarkable. Poland is one of those countries for which the value of manufacturing production utilizing agricultural biomass represents almost 30% of the total manufacturing value. The results obtained from the analysis, along with detailed information on specific product groups, can provide valuable information for decision makers planning the development of the bioeconomy in reviewed BIOEAST countries, including Poland.

scholarly journals Religious Engagement and the Migration Issue: Towards Reconciling Political and Moral Duty

Religions ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 236
Author(s):  
Joanna Kulska
Keyword(s):  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Religious Communities ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Religious Engagement ◽  
The Face ◽  
Religious Actors

The increasingly acknowledged post-secular perspective has resulted in the emergence of some new approaches theorizing this phenomenon. One such approach has been the concept of religious engagement, which calls for the redefinition of the perception of religious non-state actors towards including them as important partners in the process of identifying and realizing political goals. According to this view, due to the multidimensional role played by religious communities and non-state religious actors, they need to be recognized as pivotal in creating a new form of knowledge generated through encounter and dialogue of the political decision-makers with these subjects. Among numerous others, the challenge of migration calls for enhanced debate referring to both political and ethical issues. When such a perspective is applied, the question is raised of the duties and limits of nation-states using more or less harsh political measures towards refugees and migrants based on the concept of security, but also short-term political goals. In the face of a state’s lack of will or capacity to deal with the problem of migration, the question of religion serving not only as the service-provider but also as the “trend-setter” with regard to fundamental ethical questions needs to be considered.

Degradation Screening Test Design for Electronic Products

2010 ◽  
Vol 156-157 ◽  
pp. 747-753
Author(s):  
Rui Lin Lin ◽  
Qiang Hui Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Screening Test ◽  
Performance Characteristics ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Test Design ◽  
Aging Effects ◽  
Electronic Products ◽  
Model Coefficient ◽  
Degradation Characteristic ◽  
The Difference

Long-life electronic products need to be put in stress environment for long durations in traditional ESS(environmental stress screening) tests in order that items having infant mortality or defects are weeded out from products. However, long stress durations cause aging effects on good items. For some products, failures are defined in terms of performance characteristics degrading some critical values. For the purpose of reducing durations and aging effects, this paper analyzes the difference of performance characteristics between normally degraded products and abnormally degraded products, and assumes the distribution of products’ degradation characteristic variable is contaminated distribution model, then presents a degradation screening test design. This design firstly ascertains the model coefficient using identifiable condition of contaminated distribution combined with the analysis of degradation test, then ascertains screen duration and screen critical value. Lastly, this paper gives an example to illustrate the availability of the design.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines against Delta (B.1.617.2) Variant: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Clinical Studies

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Ali Pormohammad ◽  
Mohammad Zarei ◽  
Saied Ghorbani ◽  
Mehdi Mohammadi ◽  
Saeideh Aghayari Sheikh Neshin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Severe Infection ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Morbidity Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision

The high transmissibility, mortality, and morbidity rate of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have raised concerns regarding vaccine effectiveness (VE). To address this issue, all publications relevant to the effectiveness of vaccines against the Delta variant were searched in the Web of Science, Scopus, EMBASE, and Medline (via PubMed) databases up to 15 October 2021. A total of 15 studies (36 datasets) were included in the meta-analysis. After the first dose, the VE against the Delta variant for each vaccine was 0.567 (95% CI 0.520–0.613) for Pfizer-BioNTech, 0.72 (95% CI 0.589–0.822) for Moderna, 0.44 (95% CI 0.301–0.588) for AstraZeneca, and 0.138 (95% CI 0.076–0.237) for CoronaVac. Meta-analysis of 2,375,957 vaccinated cases showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had the highest VE against the infection after the second dose, at 0.837 (95% CI 0.672–0.928), and third dose, at 0.972 (95% CI 0.96–0.978), as well as the highest VE for the prevention of severe infection or death, at 0.985 (95% CI 0.95–0.99), amongst all COVID-19 vaccines. The short-term effectiveness of vaccines, especially mRNA-based vaccines, for the prevention of the Delta variant infection, hospitalization, severe infection, and death is supported by this study. Limitations include a lack of long-term efficacy data, and under-reporting of COVID-19 infection cases in observational studies, which has the potential to falsely skew VE rates. Overall, this study supports the decisions by public health decision makers to promote the population vaccination rate to control the Delta variant infection and the emergence of further variants.

scholarly journals A Contemporary Machine Learning Method for Accurate Prediction of Cervical Cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 04004
Author(s):  
Jesse Jeremiah Tanimu ◽  
Mohamed Hamada ◽  
Mohammed Hassan ◽  
Saratu Yusuf Ilu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Tree Classifier

With the advent of new technologies in the medical field, huge amounts of cancerous data have been collected and are readily accessible to the medical research community. Over the years, researchers have employed advanced data mining and machine learning techniques to develop better models that can analyze datasets to extract the conceived patterns, ideas, and hidden knowledge. The mined information can be used as a support in decision making for diagnostic processes. These techniques, while being able to predict future outcomes of certain diseases effectively, can discover and identify patterns and relationships between them from complex datasets. In this research, a predictive model for predicting the outcome of patients’ cervical cancer results has been developed, given risk patterns from individual medical records and preliminary screening tests. This work presents a Decision tree (DT) classification algorithm and shows the advantage of feature selection approaches in the prediction of cervical cancer using recursive feature elimination technique for dimensionality reduction for improving the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model. The dataset employed here suffers from missing values and is highly imbalanced. Therefore, a combination of under and oversampling techniques called SMOTETomek was employed. A comparative analysis of the proposed model has been performed to show the effectiveness of feature selection and class imbalance based on the classifier’s accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The DT with the selected features and SMOTETomek has better results with an accuracy of 98%, sensitivity of 100%, and specificity of 97%. Decision Tree classifier is shown to have excellent performance in handling classification assignment when the features are reduced, and the problem of imbalance class is addressed.

scholarly journals Set theoretic approach to the concept of net sensitivity and net specificity in screening test results

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bansi Badan Mukhopadhyay ◽  
Himadri Bhattacharjya
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Test Results

Net sensitivity and net specificity have been reviewed from set theoretic approach. With a basic knowledge of set theory one can estimate the net sensitivity and specificity in an easy way in both sequential and simultaneous screening tests. Union, intersection and complementary operations of set theory have been adopted to find out the solutions. 

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