Heterogeneity, turn-over rate and karyotype space shape susceptibility to missegregation-induced extinction
The incidence of somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) per base pair of the genome is orders of magnitudes larger than that of point mutations. This makes SCNAs phenotypically effective. One mitotic event stands out in its potential to significantly change a cell's SCNA burden -- a chromosome missegregation. We have presented a general deterministic framework for modeling whole chromosome missegregations and use it to evaluate the possibility of missegregation-induced population extinction (MIE). The model predicts critical curves that separate viable from non-viable populations as a function of their turnover- and mis-segregation rates. Missegregation- and turnover rates estimated for nine cancer types are then compared to these predictions for various biological assumptions. The assumption of heterogeneous missegregation rates within a tumor was sufficient to explain the observed data. By contrast, when assuming constant mis-segregation rates, several cancers were located in regions predicted as unviable. Intra-tumor heterogeneity, including heterogeneity in mis-segregation rates, increases as tumors progress. Our predictions suggest that this intra-tumor heterogeneity hinders the chance of success of therapies aimed at MIE.