scholarly journals A Data-driven Individual-based Model of Infectious Disease in Livestock Operation: A Validation Study for Paratuberculosis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad. A. Al-Mamun ◽  
Rebecca. L. Smith ◽  
Annette. Nigsch ◽  
Ynte. H. Schukken ◽  
Yrjo.T. Gröhn
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
The Us

AbstractChronic livestock diseases cause large financial loss and affect the animal health and welfare. Controlling these diseases mostly requires precise information on both individual animal and population dynamics to inform farmer’s decision. Mathematical models provide opportunities to test different control and elimination options rather implementing them in real herds, but these models require valid parameter estimation and validation. Fitting these models to data is a difficult task due to heterogeneities in livestock processes. In this paper, we develop an infectious disease modeling framework for a livestock disease (paratuberculosis) that is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Infection with MAP leads to reduced milk production, pregnancy rates, and slaughter value and increased culling rates in cattle and causes significant economic losses to the dairy industry in the US. These economic effects are particularly important motivations in the control and elimination of MAP. In this framework, an individual-based model (IBM) of a dairy herd was built and a MAP infection was integrated on top of it. Once the model produced realistic dynamics of MAP infection, we implemented an evaluation method by fitting it to data from three dairy herds from the Northeast region of the US. The model fitting exercises used least-squares and parameter space searching methods to obtain the best-fitted values of selected parameters. The best set of parameters were used to model the effect of interventions. The results show that the presented model can complement real herd statistics where the intervention strategies suggested a reduction in MAP but no elimination was observed. Overall, this research not only provides a complete model for MAP infection dynamics in a cattle herd, but also offers a method for estimating parameter by fitting IBM models.

Global impacts of aflatoxin in maize: trade and human health

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Wu
Keyword(s):  
Animal Health ◽  
Aflatoxin Contamination ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Subsistence Farming ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Main Determinant ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Global Impacts

Maize is one of the most important agricultural commodities worldwide in terms of amounts produced, consumed, and traded. Hence, naturally occurring aflatoxin contamination in maize has important ramifications for both global trade and health. Aflatoxin is produced by certain species of the genus Aspergillus in a variety of food crops, including maize, peanuts, and tree nuts. Over 100 nations have aflatoxin regulations, which are intended to protect human and animal health, but also incur economic losses to nations that attempt to export maize and other aflatoxin-contaminated commodities. These economic effects must be balanced against the health protection afforded by the regulations. It is important to acknowledge that, even in nations that have aflatoxin regulations, many individuals consume maize that has undergone no regulatory inspection, especially in nations where subsistence farming is widespread. Hence, aflatoxin contamination, exposure, and lack of regulation can also contribute to adverse effects on trade and health worldwide. This review, part of a special issue on aflatoxin in maize, describes economic and health effects of aflatoxin in maize on a global level. It ends with a story of an intervention that reduced maize consumption in one population in China, which is likely the main determinant of the reduction in liver cancer mortality in that population over the last 30 years, from reduced aflatoxin exposure.

scholarly journals Assessment on Economic Losses due to Animal Health and Production Constraints in Jimma Town Intensive Dairy Farms, Jimma, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
pp. 52-60
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Dairy Farming ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Production Constraints ◽  
Milk Fever ◽  
Jimma Town

A single-visit-multiple subject formal survey technique was used to collect data from 75 small-scale dairy farming households which were selected at random and were interviewed using a pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. Seventy-three (97.3%) dairy farming was practiced under an intensive management system. Among the selected dairy farms, only (33.3%) were kept in good hygienic condition. Artificial insemination was common (69.3%) breeding system practiced in most dairy farms of studying area. This study discovered that only a few dairy farms (2.7%) undergo periodic vaccination. It appeared from the study that morbidity loss of animals was primarily caused by mastitis which calculated (42.7%), black leg (32%), lumpy skin disease (21.3%), milk fever (17.3%), heart water (10.7%) and foot rote (5.3%) in order of their decreasing order. The results of this survey revealed that mastitis was ranked as the number one disease of dairy animals while foot rote was list reported disease in the study area. Morbidity loss of production and productivity was estimated to the financial loss of (812,600 birrs) per year. Not only morbidity loss, in some farms, mortality was also common problems of the study area. Mainly common diseases such as heart water (6.7%), milk fever (5.3%), back leg (2.7%), and lumpy skin disease (1.7%) were major causes of mortality in few farms. This in turn estimated the financial loss of (625,000 birrs). Eventually, overall annual financial loss as a result of mortality and morbidity was estimated to be (1,437,600 birrs). The outbreak of lumpy skin disease and blacklegs could be controlled through improving veterinary services with respect to adequate vaccination and heart water (seasonal tick infestation) would be alleviated by spraying. The aim of the study was to assess assessment on economic losses due to animal health and production constraints in Jimma town intensive dairy farms, Jimma, Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Intestinal Caseous Lymphadenitis in Sheep

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Machado Martins ◽  
Alexandre Santos Carneiro ◽  
Lara Giovana Diniz ◽  
Priscila Chediek Dall'Acqua ◽  
Juliana Evangelista Bezzerril ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Physical Examination ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Dose Effect ◽  
Corynebacterium Pseudotuberculosis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Caseous Lymphadenitis ◽  
Flunixin Meglumine ◽  
Left Lateral Decubitus Position ◽  
Histological Confirmation

Background: Caseous Lymphadenitis (CL) is a chronic infectious disease caused by the bacterium Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, which is considered the main agent responsible for abscess lesions. In the visceral form it can affect the internal organs of sheep and goats, which could negatively affect animal health and cause large economic losses for producers.Case: This study aims to report a case of intestinal CL in sheep, with suspected diagnosis during physical examination and identification during the performance of the oophorectomy procedure, adopted as a management approach. It is a mixed breed sheep, aged over 5 years; weight 28 kg; emaciated on physical examination; with pale pink and moist eyelid mucosa; heart and respiratory rate: 81 beats/min and 22 movements/min, respectively; body temperature 39.2°C; ruminal movements at 1 movement/min; without identification of lymphadenomegaly on palpation, however, it was observed that the right submandibular lymph node presented tissue retraction compatible with the healing process. For the surgical procedure, an 18-h fast was used and pre-anesthetic medication with 2% xylazine (0.1 mg/kg), 10% ketamine (5 mg/kg) and 50 mg/mL tramadol (2 mg/kg) administrated intramuscularly. The animal was placed in the left lateral decubitus position, then was performed trichotomy and epidural administration of 2% lidocaine (4 mg/kg) and maintenance with propofol 10 mg/mL intravenous dose-effect and oxygen mask 3 liters/min, antibiotic prophylaxis was performed with 10% enrofloxacin (2.5 mg/kg). Flank oophorectomy was performed according to the classic technique and during abdominal inspection, abscess lesions were found in the mesentery and intestinal loops. Incisional biopsy was performed to collect samples in the jejunal segment. At the end of the procedure, 50 mg/mL (2.2 mg/kg) of flunixin meglumine was administered intravenously. A 0.6 cm x 0.2 cm sample, was submitted to histological analysis, which showed the presence of central necrosis areas formed by concentric lamellae, with the presence of large bacterial colonies and foci of mineralization, surrounded by a strip of inflammatory infiltrate with epithelial macrophages and few neutrophils. In the adjacent layer, lymphocytes and plasmocytes were found and the entire lesion was delimited by fibrous conjunctive tissue, compatible with lesions caused by Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, the causative agent of CL. During the whole postoperative period the animal was kept isolated from the herd. Due to the unfavorable prognosis and histological confirmation of visceral CL, euthanasia was indicated. The animal was sent for necropsy and no lesions compatible with CL were found in other organs or tissues besides the anatomical structures where the lesions were previously described (intestine and mesentery).Discussion: As it is an infectious disease, isolation and euthanasia should be indicated in cases of CL, in order to not compromise the health of the herd. Thus, justifying the orientation of euthanasia after histological confirmation. The case did not have other possibilities of diagnostic aid, however, histological lesions of CL are characteristic but not pathognomonic, as it could be confused with lesions caused by other pyogenic pathogens. In this way, clinical considerations and complementary exams are relevant to support the diagnostic. To conclude, the observation and physical examination of the herd were fundamental tools for raising the diagnostic hypothesis ante mortem. Complementary tests allowed the confirmation of the disease and prevented the spread in the herd, which could lead to large economic losses for producers and negatively affect animal health.

scholarly journals Diagnosis of fasciolosis in cattle slaughtered at the slaughterhouse of the urban commune of Dédougou in Burkina Faso

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-504
Author(s):  
Modou Séré ◽  
Micheline Nomtondo Sawadogo ◽  
Sié Hermann Pooda ◽  
Benoît Kaboré ◽  
Adama Kaboré ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Small Ruminants ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
P Value ◽  
Consumer Health ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Public Health Importance ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Ruminant Meat

Fasciolosis is a major zoonosis of ruminants which causes great economic losses to breeders. Given the economic and public health importance of this pathology, it is necessary to establish the current situation in a perspective of animal and ruminant meat consumer health protection. Therefore, the present study was conducted at the slaughterhouse of Dédougou in order to identify the species of fluke that caused this pathology in the Boucle du Mouhoun region and to estimate the prevalence, the risk factors and the economic losses associated with this pathology. For this purpose, 820 cattle and 6360 small ruminants were diagnosed through post-mortem examination over a five-month period from March to August 2018. Out of the 6360 small ruminant livers examined, no cases of infestation were observed unlike cattle in which the prevalence of infestation was 2.07%. These infestations were all due to Fasciola gigantica. Regarding the risk factors, a slight effect of the month and a high influence of animals' origin were observed. March, with a prevalence of 0.25%, was the most favorable infestation month (P-value=0.05) and Sourou (19.51%), was the highest infestation risk area (P-value<0.0001). The estimated financial loss associated with the infestations was XOF 22,200.29 per infested animal. The situation is particularly worrying insofar as some populations, especially rural populations, consume meat from uncontrolled slaughter areas. Appropriate precautions should therefore be taken to ensure both consumer and animal health, given the zoonotic nature of the disease.

Impact of the Deepwater Horizon well blowout on the economics of US Gulf fisheries

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Rashid Sumaila ◽  
Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor ◽  
Andrew Dyck ◽  
Ling Huang ◽  
William Cheung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Deepwater Horizon ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Recreational Fishing ◽  
Recreational Fisheries ◽  
Marine Aquaculture ◽  
The Us ◽  
Total Profit

Marine oil spills usually harm organisms at two interfaces: near the water surface and on shore. However, because of the depth of the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon well blowout, deeper parts of the Gulf of Mexico are likely impacted. We estimate the potential negative economic effects of this blowout and oil spill on commercial and recreational fishing, as well as mariculture (marine aquaculture) in the US Gulf area, by computing potential losses throughout the fish value chain. We find that the spill could, in the next 7 years, result in (midpoint) present value losses of total revenues, total profits, wages, and economic impact of US$3.7, US$1.9, US$1.2, and US$8.7 billion, respectively. Commercial and recreational fisheries would likely suffer the most losses, with a respective estimated US$1.6 and US$1.9 billion of total revenue losses, US$0.8 and US$1.1 billion in total profit losses, and US$4.9 and US$3.5 billion of total economic losses.

INFLUENCE OF PERSONAL COMMUNICATION NETWORKS ON INNOVATION ADOPTION — USING MULTI-AGENT SIMULATIONS TO PROJECT THE LAUNCH OF AN INNOVATIVE MEDICAL DEVICE

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (05) ◽  
pp. 1340021 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTIAN BARROT ◽  
JAN KUHLMANN ◽  
ANDREA POPA
Keyword(s):  
Medical Device ◽  
Interpersonal Communication ◽  
Communication Networks ◽  
Personal Communication ◽  
Market Penetration ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Communication Processes ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multi Agent

Adoption processes are often heavily influenced by interpersonal communication. Marketing managers are increasingly trying to use these relationships to foster the market penetration of their products. In an empirical study of the US market for an innovative medical device, we survey the social network of (mostly chief) anesthetists from 151 hospitals. We confirm the influences from personal communication on individual adoption decisions through hazard regressions. We then use a multi-agent modeling framework trying to identify what seeding strategies would have been optimal to achieve a fast market penetration, i.e. which and how many anesthetists should be selected to initiate personal communication processes.

scholarly journals Quantification of PV Power and Economic Losses Due to Soiling in Qatar

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3364
Author(s):  
Amr Zeedan ◽  
Abdulaziz Barakeh ◽  
Khaled Al-Fakhroo ◽  
Farid Touati ◽  
Antonio S. P. Gonzales
Keyword(s):  
Output Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Energy Yield ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Dust Density

Soiling losses of photovoltaic (PV) panels due to dust lead to a significant decrease in solar energy yield and result in economic losses; this hence poses critical challenges to the viability of PV in smart grid systems. In this paper, these losses are quantified under Qatar’s harsh environment. This quantification is based on experimental data from long-term measurements of various climatic parameters and the output power of PV panels located in Qatar University’s Solar facility in Doha, Qatar, using a customized measurement and monitoring setup. A data processing algorithm was deliberately developed and applied, which aimed to correlate output power to ambient dust density in the vicinity of PV panels. It was found that, without cleaning, soiling reduced the output power by 43% after six months of exposure to an average ambient dust density of 0.7 mg/m3. The power and economic loss that would result from this power reduction for Qatar’s ongoing solar PV projects has also been estimated. For example, for the Al-Kharasaah project power plant, similar soiling loss would result in about a 10% power decrease after six months for typical ranges of dust density in Qatar’s environment; this, in turn, would result in an 11,000 QAR/h financial loss. This would pose a pressing need to mitigate soiling effects in PV power plants.

scholarly journals The Economic Effects of COVID-19 on the Producers of Ethanol, Corn, Gasoline, and Oil

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Schmitz ◽  
Charles B. Moss ◽  
Troy G. Schmitz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Welfare Economic ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Corn Ethanol ◽  
Empirical Estimation ◽  
Total Oil

AbstractThe COVID-19 crisis created large economic losses for corn, ethanol, gasoline, and oil producers and refineries both in the United States and worldwide. We extend the theory used by Schmitz, A., C. B. Moss, and T. G. Schmitz. 2007. “Ethanol: No Free Lunch.” Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization 5 (2): 1–28 as a basis for empirical estimation of the effect of COVID-19. We estimate, within a welfare economic cost-benefit framework that, at a minimum, the producer cost in the United States for these four sectors totals $176.8 billion for 2020. For U.S. oil producers alone, the cost was $151 billion. When world oil is added, the costs are much higher, at $1055.8 billion. The total oil producer cost is $1.03 trillion, which is roughly 40 times the effect on U.S. corn, ethanol, and gasoline producers, and refineries. If the assumed unemployment effects from COVID-19 are taken into account, the total effect, including both producers and unemployed workers, is $212.2 billion, bringing the world total to $1266.9 billion.

scholarly journals Sero-epidemiological survey of bluetongue disease in one-humped camel (Camelus dromedarius) in Kassala State, Eastern Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Molhima M. Elmahi ◽  
Mohammed O. Hussien ◽  
Abdel Rahim E. Karrar ◽  
Amira M. Elhassan ◽  
Abdel Rahim M. El Hussein
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Potential Risk Factors ◽  
Eastern Sudan

Abstract Background Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne viral disease of ruminant and camelid species which is transmitted by Culicoides spp. The causative agent of BT is bluetongue virus (BTV) that belongs to genus Orbivirus of the family Reoviridae. The clinical disease is seen mainly in sheep but mostly sub-clinical infections of BT are seen in cattle, goats and camelids. The clinical reaction of camels to infection is usually not apparent. The disease is notifiable to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), causing great economic losses due to decreased trade and high mortality and morbidity rates associated with bluetongue outbreaks. The objective of this study was to investigate the seroprevalence of BTV in camels in Kassala State, Eastern Sudan and to identify the potential risk factors associated with the infection. A cross sectional study using a structured questionnaire survey was conducted during 2015–2016. A total of 210 serum samples were collected randomly from camels from 8 localities of Kassala State. The serum samples were screened for the presence of BTV specific immunoglobulin (IgG) antibodies using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). Results Seropositivity to BTV IgG was detected in 165 of 210 camels’ sera accounting for a prevalence of 78.6%. Potential risk factors to BTV infection were associated with sex (OR = 0.061, p-value = 0.001) and seasonal river as water source for drinking (OR = 32.257, p-value = 0.0108). Conclusions Sex and seasonal river as water source for drinking were considered as potential risk factors for seropositivity to BTV in camels. The high prevalence of BTV in camels in Kassala State, Eastern Sudan, necessitates further epidemiological studies of BTV infection in camels and other ruminant species to better be able to control BT disease in this region.

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