The statistical sensitivity of highway project cost to geo-heterogeneity in the tropics

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alolote Amadi

PurposeThe study is carried out to analytically reconnoiter geotechnical index properties of subgrade soils as key variables that shape the cost profile of road infrastructure projects in a tropical geographic setting with starkly heterogenous ground conditions.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Niger Delta region, as a point of reference, data on geotechnical index properties of subgrade soils at spatially dispersed locations for 61 completed highway projects are collated. Exploratory statistical tests were carried out to infer significant associations with final project costs before regression analysis. Regression analysis is principally deployed as an explanatory analytical tool, relevant to quantify the sensitivity of highway project costs to the individual and collective impact of geotechnical variables.FindingsSeveral parameters of expansivity and compressibility exhibited significantly strong associations with the final costs recorded on the highway projects. The statistical analysis further established a cause-effect relationship, whereby small changes in the geotechnical properties of sub-grade soils at project locations, would result in disproportionately large changes in the cost of road construction.Practical implicationsThe study findings provide insight into the sensitivity of road construction costs to geotechnical variables, which can serve as a useful input in financial risk analysis for development appraisal and the generation of location adjustment factors.Originality/valueThe study statistically demonstrates location-induced construction cost profiles, triggered in response to the spatial geotechnical variability and occurrence of problem subgrade soils in the humid tropics, which may be different from those traditionally established in studies of cold and temperate climate soils.

Author(s):  
Ömür Çimen ◽  
Mehmet Saltan ◽  
S. Nilay Keskin

AbstractHigh-plasticity clayey subgrade, which is unsuitable for road construction, may sometimes occur along highway routes. In such cases, engineers need to change the route of a highway project, resulting in an increase in road length and project costs. In this study, waste pumice was examined for stabilization of high-plasticity clayey subgrade, which is inappropriate for road construction. For this purpose, the physical and index properties of clay and pumice were determined. Then, the pumice was mixed with high plasticity clay at different ratios by weight. By performing standard Proctor compaction tests on the mixtures, the effects of adding pumice on compaction were also studied. Unconfined compression tests and California bearing ratio (CBR) tests were performed on all pumice-clay mixtures, and the test results and the CBR ratios were compared for each sample, respectively. The results showed that pumice stabilization improved the mechanical properties and reduced the swelling potential of high plasticity clayey subgrade.


2008 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 160-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios G. Noulas ◽  
Niki Glaveli ◽  
Ioannis Kiriakopoulos

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the cost efficiency of 58 branches of a major Greek commercial bank, in six major Greek cities, for the years 2000 and 2001.Design/methodology/approachThe efficiency is measured through the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method. Using regression analysis, the effect of size on cost efficiency is also examined.FindingsThe results indicate that there is a room for substantial efficiency improvements. The average inefficiency is about 30 per cent. It has also been observed that rural branches tend, on average, to be more efficient than urban branches.Research limitations/implicationsA direction of future research would be to extend the analysis of determinants of bank branch efficiency in order to investigate the role that the region and the characteristics of the branch play in relation to efficiency.Originality/valueThe paper provides a comparative evaluation of the efficiency of 58 branches of a major Greek commercial bank using the DEA method.


Author(s):  
Hanzhi Kou

In recent years, China’s society and economy has been developing very rapidly, and various industries are showing a trend of vigorous development. The importance of control and management of project cost in highway project management is becoming more and more prominent. PPP model has been widely used in the control and management of highway project cost with its own unique advantages. The author analyzes the important advantages of the PPP model and the existing problems in the cost control and management of highway projects, and puts forward effective measures for the cost control and management of highway projects using the PPP model, in hope of helping with the smooth implementation of the work.


2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 988-1003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Abdel-Karim El-Hamrawy ◽  
Ahmed Ebrahim Abu El-Maaty ◽  
Ahmed Yousry Akal

Purpose Quality measurement is the trigger for quality improvement. Indeed, what gets measured gets done. The real scope of quality improvement in construction projects is the difficulty and-maybe-lack of quality measurement methods. The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors influencing the quality performance of highway projects in Egypt. Furthermore, this paper also contributes to develop models to measure the quality level of these projects. Design/methodology/approach A literature review is conducted to compile a list of factors influencing the quality of highway projects. The resulting list of factors is subjected to a questionnaire survey which was sent to owners, consultants and contractors of highway projects in Egypt. Furthermore, linear regression analysis and statistical fuzzy approaches are adopted for modeling process. Findings The survey results show that availability of experienced staff in the owner’s and contractor’s teams during the project execution, asphalt quality and type used in the construction process, pavement is not designed according to the regional conditions, and contractor’s labors and equipment capability are among the most important factors influencing quality performance. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is to develop models to measure the quality of highway projects in Egypt. The first model is based on the linear regression analysis, while the second one is based on a statistical fuzzy approach which is a hybrid approach from the fuzzy logic and regression analysis. Validation of the models reveals that the linear regression and the statistical fuzzy models can accurately assess expected quality of any future highway projects at confidence levels 68.97 and 87.44 percent, respectively.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanzhi Kou

The "Replacement of Business Tax by VAT reform" (hereby refer to as "VAT reform" for short) is a newly promulgated and implemented tax policy, and its impact on various industries in China is very different, and the highway project industry is no exception. The implementation of the "VAT reform" will not only have a positive impact on the cost of highway projects, but will also have some negative impacts. For this reason, highway project construction corporates must actively respond. The author explores and analyzes the positive and negative effects of the "VAT reform" on the cost of highway projects, and proposes a reform strategy for highway project cost work under the background of the "VAT reform", in hope of helping with bringing out the intrinsic value of highway project cost management work.


2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 208-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Udo Udofia ◽  
B. H. W. Hadikusumo ◽  
Djoen San Santoso

Purpose – This paper aims to identify and examine valid project termination reasons and the rebidding strategies of road construction project. Rebidding strategies is one of the measures to restructure terminated/troubled road construction project. Design/methodology/approach – An instrument which comprised 82 items entitled “Project Termination and Rebidding Strategies in Road Construction Projects in Nigeria” (PTRS) was developed to evaluate 60 randomly sampled road projects using qualified project/site managers and engineers as project respondents for the purpose of securing valid information on the terminated and rebid road construction projects. Mean, standard deviation and factor analysis shall be used as analytical tools in identifying valid termination reasons and rebidding strategies and as well as the relationship between them through regression analysis. Findings – The paper’s findings revealed major project termination reasons and rebidding strategies. It further indicated significant relationship between variables which constitutes project termination reasons and rebidding strategies through regression analysis. Practical implications – The outcome of the paper could be of immense benefits during the procurement phase of public project, especially regarding road construction. Stakeholders involved in the road procurement should seek relevant information concerning the road project reprocurement from the expert prior to contractual obligations. Originality/value – Major challenges confronting the road construction project involve inappropriate procurement practices which frequently culminate into late deliveries of project. Rebidding strategies serve as a model through which cost, time and quality needs of the project client can be reassured in restructuring a terminated/troubled project.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 877-895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chau Ngoc Dang ◽  
Long Le-Hoai

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop several predictive models for estimating the structural construction cost and establish range estimation for the structural construction cost using design information available in early stages of residential building projects. Design/methodology/approach Information about residential building projects is collected based on project documents from construction companies with regard to the design parameters and the actual structural construction costs at completion. Storey enclosure method (SEM) is fundamental for determining the building design parameters, forming the potential variables and developing the cost estimation models using regression analysis. Nonparametric bootstrap method is used to establish range estimation for the structural construction cost. Findings A model which is developed from an integration of advanced SEM, principle component analysis and regression analysis is robust in terms of predictability. In terms of range estimation, cumulative probability-based range estimates and confidence intervals are established. While cumulative probability-based range estimates provide information about the level of uncertainty included in the estimate, confidence intervals provide information about the variability of the estimate. Such information could be very crucial for management decisions in early stages of residential building projects. Originality/value This study could provide practitioners with a better understanding of the uncertainty and variability included in the cost estimate. Hence, they could make effective improvements on cost-related management approaches to enhance project cost performance.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (4/5) ◽  
pp. 323-331
Author(s):  
Mohsen pakdaman ◽  
Raheleh akbari ◽  
Hamid reza Dehghan ◽  
Asra Asgharzadeh ◽  
Mahdieh Namayandeh

PurposeFor years, traditional techniques have been used for diabetes treatment. There are two major types of insulin: insulin analogs and regular insulin. Insulin analogs are similar to regular insulin and lead to changes in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. The purpose of the present research was to determine the cost-effectiveness of insulin analogs versus regular insulin for diabetes control in Yazd Diabetes Center in 2017.Design/methodology/approachIn this descriptive–analytical research, the cost-effectiveness index was used to compare insulin analogs and regular insulin (pen/vial) for treatment of diabetes. Data were analyzed in the TreeAge Software and a decision tree was constructed. A 10% discount rate was used for ICER sensitivity analysis. Cost-effectiveness was examined from a provider's perspective.FindingsQALY was calculated to be 0.2 for diabetic patients using insulin analogs and 0.05 for those using regular insulin. The average cost was $3.228 for analog users and $1.826 for regular insulin users. An ICER of $0.093506/QALY was obtained. The present findings suggest that insulin analogs are more cost-effective than regular insulin.Originality/valueThis study was conducted using a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate insulin analogs versus regular insulin in controlling diabetes. The results of study are helpful to the government to allocate more resources to apply the cost-effective method of the treatment and to protect patients with diabetes from the high cost of treatment.


Author(s):  
Larry G. Crowley ◽  
Jared L. Madewell

Public agencies generally let construction contracts to the lowest responsible, responsive bidder. In following this practice, agencies recognize there are higher risks of cost growth in awarding to either unusually low bids or to certain “claim-conscious” bidders. Despite this awareness, there are few documented studies supporting or quantifying the presence of these perceived competitive procurement risks. This research undertakes that specific task. First, bids and bidders on a sample of Alabama highway projects are grouped into risk categories by information available at the project bid opening—well in advance of any potential contract award— and without considering actual project performance data. Second, the cost growth experiences of these projects are statistically analyzed based upon these risk groupings. The results indicate that cost growth on Alabama highway projects is significantly more likely when projects are awarded to unusually low bids or to certain bidder types. A similar study performed earlier on Texas highway projects provides nearly identical results. This type of analysis and the derived information can be used by public agencies to amend the procurement process and objectively disqualify unusually low bids or questionable bidders without abandoning competitive procurement principles.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetto Manganelli ◽  
Marco Vona ◽  
Pierfrancesco De Paola

Purpose The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings to verify whether the legislative push, through tax incentives, will produce results and lead to a redevelopment of private real estate assets. Design/methodology/approach Through contingent valuation, this research aims to measure the propensity of homeowners to invest in the seismic security of their properties. The sample of homeowners was selected in a southern Italy city, which was characterized by a medium-high seismic hazard. The willingness to pay, once made independent from the family income, was compared with the actual cost of a seismic retrofitting technique to assess its cost-effectiveness. Findings The analysis developed on an example case shows that the economic sustainability of the intervention is only verified when considering the current tax incentives for this type of intervention. Practical implications Choosing to introduce a system to compulsory insurance against seismic risk could certainly be a strong incentive for the implementation of retrofitting interventions on private real estate assets. In this direction, investigations like this can be fundamental to establish the fair risk premium. Originality/value The need for effective seismic risk mitigation policies is also based on the growing awareness of the, often fatal, effects of seismic events, emphasized by the recent medium and high intensity events that hit Italy. The issue of the security of residential buildings is therefore a very topical issue in view of their high seismic vulnerability and the vast number of buildings requiring major seismic retrofitting. Therefore, the propensity of owners to intervene in improving the seismic performance of their properties can be crucial in seismic risk mitigation.


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