scholarly journals Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006)

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Hari Prasad ◽  
Joanna Wibig ◽  
Marcin Rzepa

Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Author(s):  
ARKADIUSZ M. TOMCZYK

The main purpose of this article was to determine the pressure situations and circulation types causing the occurrence of frosty nights in Poznań in the years 1966/67–2015/16. A night was assumed to be a frosty night with a minimum temperature below –10°C. The article uses the daily values of the minimum air temperature for the period of 1966–2016 for the station in Poznań. The data was provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. In the analyzed years, 10 frosty nights were recorded on average every season. Conducted studies showed a decrease in their number, although these changes were not statistically significant. The average occurrence of frosty nights was associated with the presence of a high-pressure system over Central Europe, which developed within a high-pressure ridge extending over the majority of the continent. Such a pressure situation led to the advection of continental air masses from the eastern sector.


Author(s):  
Md. Abdul Aziz ◽  
M. A. Samad ◽  
M. R. Hasan ◽  
M. N. U. Bhuiyan ◽  
M. A. K. Mallik

Every year Bangladesh experiences different types of natural hazards and heat wave is one of them. In the present study, an advanced high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) numerical mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe heat wave event occurred during April over Bangladesh and eastern part of India. The model is integrated for 6 days starting from UTC of 19 April to UTC of 24 April 2016, on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution. For validation of the model performance, the model simulated results of temperature at 2 m height, relative humidity (RH), mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at UTC of 6 days are compared with the BMD observed data. And the results indicate that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the heat wave event with 6 days over Bangladesh.


2018 ◽  
Vol 85 ◽  
pp. 861-865
Author(s):  
Hyunsu Kim ◽  
Yoo-Keun Kim ◽  
Seung-Buhm Woo ◽  
Myung-Seok Kim

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ◽  
José C. Fernández-Alvarez ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Luis Gimeno

The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted from the Centennial Time Scale dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and TC records were obtained from the Atlantic Hurricane Database of the NOAA/National Hurricane Center. The genesis and landfalling regions were objectively clustered for this analysis. Seven regions of TC genesis and five for landfalling were identified. Intercluster differences were observed in the monthly frequency distribution and annual variability, both for genesis and landfalling. From the generalized least square multiple regression model, SST and NASH (intensity and position) covariates can explain 22.7% of the variance of the frequency of TC genesis, but it is only statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the NASH center latitude. The SST mostly modulates the frequency of TCs formed near the West African coast, and the NASH latitudinal variation affects those originated in the Lesser Antilles arc. For landfalling, both covariates explain 38.7% of the variance; however, significant differences are observed in the comparison between each region. With a statistical significance higher than 90%, SST and NASH explain 33.4% of the landfalling variability in the archipelago of the Bahamas and central–eastern region of Cuba. Besides, landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America seem to be modulated by SST. It was also found there was no statistically significant relationship between the frequency of genesis and landfalling with the NASH intensity. However, the NASH structure modulates the probability density of the TCs trajectory that make landfall once or several times in their lifetime. Thus, the NASH variability throughout a hurricane season affects the TCs trajectory in the North Atlantic basin. Moreover, we found that the landfalling frequency of TCs formed near the West Africa coast and the central North Atlantic is relatively low. Furthermore, the SST and NASH longitude center explains 31.6% (p < 0.05) of the variance of the landfalling intensity in the archipelago of the Bahamas, while the SST explains 26.4% (p < 0.05) in Central America. Furthermore, the 5-year moving average filter revealed decadal and multidecadal variability in both genesis and landfalling by region. Our findings confirm the complexity of the atmospheric processes involved in the TC genesis and landfalling.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2225-2240 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. T. Couto ◽  
R. Salgado ◽  
M. J. Costa

Abstract. This paper constitutes a step towards the understanding of some characteristics associated with high rainfall amounts and flooding on Madeira Island. The high precipitation events that occurred during the winter of 2009/2010 have been considered with three main goals: to analyze the main atmospheric characteristics associated with the events; to expand the understanding of the interaction between the island and the atmospheric circulations, mainly the effects of the island on the generation or intensification of orographic precipitation; and to evaluate the performance of high resolution numerical modeling in simulating and forecasting heavy precipitation events over the island. The MESO-NH model with a horizontal resolution of 1 km is used, as well as rain gauge data, synoptic charts and measurements of precipitable water obtained from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS). The results confirm the influence of the orographic effects on precipitation over Madeira as well as the tropical–extratropical interaction, since atmospheric rivers were detected in six out of the seven cases analyzed, acting as a low level moisture supplier, which together with the orographic lifting induced the high rainfall amounts. Only in one of the cases the presence of a low pressure system was identified over the archipelago.


The so-called high pressure “ CO ” bands—or high pressure carbon bands, as they are better called—were first found by Fowler* in 1910 in tubes containing carbon monoxide at relatively high pressures. The system was described as consisting of some six apparently double-headed bands degraded to the violet, their wave-lengths being approximately at— 6441 6420 } 5897 5878 } 5431 5413 } 5030 5015 } 4679 4663 } 4365 4353 } Å. U. In 1923 the conditions of production of this spectrum were further investigated by Merton and Johnson who obtained the bands with considerable strength by condensed discharges in capillary tubes fitted with carbon electrodes, and containing CO at pressures of 5 mm. and more. It was found that while the high pressure bands and the Swan bands were mingled in the light from the capillary of the tube, the former bands were isolated in bluish jets where the two ends of the capillary merged into the wider parts of the tube. Further observations indicated that the introduction of a little C0 2 destroyed the bands, but that the system re-apppeared after a few minutes, in which time presumably the carbon dioxide had been reduced to monoxide by the carbon electrodes. A reproduction of these bands photographed under low dispersion is given in the above-mentioned paper. No further experimental work appears to have been done on this system, and it has not been correlated with any other band system or assigned any place in the system of electronic levels of the CO molecule. We have therefore made an attempt to photograph the system under high dispersion with a view to fine structure analysis and identification of the molecular emitter. For this purpose large discharge tubes having a bore of about 15 to 20 mm. and a length of 60 or 70 cm. were used. These had at least one of the electrodes made of carbon and were fitted with side bulbs containing caustic potash and phosphorus pentoxide and a palladium regulator. The tubes were filled with carbon monoxide to such a pressure (probably 20-40 mm.) that a condensed discharge could just be forced through by the ¼ kilowatt 15,000 volt transformer used. Some of the tubes had large side flasks attached to them, increasing thereby the volume of gas in the tube, and giving the tubes a life of 4 to 6 hours during which the high pressure bands were emitted strongly. After some such period the pressure fell below the optimum value, and deposits of carbon had accumulated on the walls of the tube. Impurities such as hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and water-vapour were found to inhibit formation of the high pressure bands, and the tube always attained its best condition after running for about an hour (removing meanwhile any little hydrogen present through the regulator). Under these conditions the wide bore is practically filled with light, and presents a remarkable appearance, as of dense pale blue puffs of smoke (showing the high pressure system), threaded by a narrow green ribbon (showing the Swan system). If side tubes having a fair capacity ( e . g ., flasks) are attached to the discharge tube the high pressure glow is capable of diffusion into these. The appearance is suggestive of an afterglow emitter, but if this is its true nature it is of very short duration. Photographs of the H. P. bands were taken in times varying from 4 to 10 hours in the first order of a 21-foot grating. The green band in the neighbourhood of λ 5000 is exceedingly faint and was not attempted. Before considering the results -obtained it will be an advantage to summarise our present knowledge of the Swan spectrum and its emitter, with which it will subsequently be shown that the high pressure carbon system is intimately related.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 187-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Federico ◽  
Marco Petracca ◽  
Giulia Panegrossi ◽  
Claudio Transerici ◽  
Stefano Dietrich

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of the assimilation of total lightning data on the precipitation forecast of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The impact of the lightning data assimilation, which uses water vapour substitution, is investigated at different forecast time ranges, namely 3, 6, 12, and 24 h, to determine how long and to what extent the assimilation affects the precipitation forecast of long lasting rainfall events (> 24 h). The methodology developed in a previous study is slightly modified here, and is applied to twenty case studies occurred over Italy by a mesoscale model run at convection-permitting horizontal resolution (4 km). The performance is quantified by dichotomous statistical scores computed using a dense raingauge network over Italy. Results show the important impact of the lightning assimilation on the precipitation forecast, especially for the 3 and 6 h forecast. The probability of detection (POD), for example, increases by 10 % for the 3 h forecast using the assimilation of lightning data compared to the simulation without lightning assimilation for all precipitation thresholds considered. The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is also improved by the lightning assimilation, especially for thresholds below 40 mm day−1. Results show that the forecast time range is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with the forecast time. The POD, for example, is improved by 1–2 % for the 24 h forecast using lightning data assimilation compared to 10 % of the 3 h forecast. The impact of the false alarms on the model performance is also evidenced by this study.


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