Will Amazonia Dry Out? Magnitude and Causes of Change from IPCC Climate Model Projections

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Cook ◽  
Ning Zeng ◽  
Jin-Ho Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Rain Forest ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Dynamic Vegetation Model ◽  
The Core ◽  
Amazon Rain Forest

Abstract The Amazon rain forest may undergo significant change in response to future climate change. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, the authors analyzed the output of 24 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model, Vegetation–Global–Atmosphere–Soil (VEGAS), driven by these climate output. Their results suggest that the core of the Amazon rain forest should remain largely stable because rainfall in the core of the basin is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of Amazonia and farther south into central Brazil (SAB), is in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. First, a decline in precipitation of 11% during the southern Amazonia’s dry season (May–September) reduces soil moisture. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the forecast reduction in dry season rainfall: 1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon basin is under the control of subtropical high pressure and 2) a stronger north–south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient and, to a lesser degree, a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by approximately 10 days. The decline in soil moisture occurs despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, because of nonlinear responses in hydrology associated with the decline in dry season precipitation, ecosystem dynamics, and an increase in evaporative demand due to the general warming. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. Although the IPCC models have substantial intermodel variation in precipitation change, these latter two hydroecological effects are highly robust because of the general warming simulated by all models. As a result, when forced by these climate projections, a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS projects an enhancement of fire risk by 20%–30% in the SAB region. Fire danger reaches its peak in Amazonia during the dry season, and this danger is expected to increase primarily because of the reduction in soil moisture and the decrease in dry season rainfall. VEGAS also projects a reduction of about 0.77 in leaf area index (LAI) over the SAB region. The vegetation response may be partially mediated by the CO2 fertilization effect, because a sensitivity experiment without CO2 fertilization shows a higher 0.89 decrease in LAI. Southern Amazonia is currently under intense human influence as a result of deforestation and land-use change. Should this direct human impact continue at present rates, added pressure to the region’s ecosystems from climate change may subject the region to profound changes in the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Cook ◽  
N. Zeng ◽  
J.-H. Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Amazon Rainforest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract. Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May–September) reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10–15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry season rainfall, which is when fire danger reaches its peak. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence as a result of deforestation and land use, added pressure to the region's ecosystems from climate change may subject the region to profound changes in the 21st century.

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Groundwater Levels

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

Drought responses of Amazon forests under climate change: Separating the roles of soil moisture and canopy responses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao-wei Wey ◽  
Kim Naudts ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Julia Nabel ◽  
Lena Boysen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Leaf Phenology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Litter Production ◽  
Direct Effects ◽  
Climatic Effects

<p>The Amazon forests are one of the largest ecosystem carbon pools on Earth. While more frequent and prolonged droughts have been predicted under future climate change there, the vulnerability of Amazon forests to drought has yet remained largely uncertain, as previous studies have shown that few land surface models succeeded in capturing the vegetation responses to drought. In this study, we present an improved version of the land surface model JSBACH, which incorporates new formulations of leaf phenology and litter production based on intensive field measurement from the artificial drought experiments in the Amazon. Coupling the new JSBACH with the atmospheric model ECHAM, we investigate the drought responses of the Amazon forests and the resulting feedbacks under RCP8.5 scenario. The climatic effects resulted from (1) direct effects including declining soil moisture and stomatal responses, and (2) soil moisture-induced canopy responses are separated to give more insights, as the latter was poorly simulated. Preliminary results show that for net primary production and soil respiration, the direct effects and canopy responses have similar spatial patterns with the magnitude of the latter being 1/5 to 1/3 of the former. In addition, declining soil moisture enhances rainfall in Northern Amazon and suppresses rainfall in the south, while canopy responses have negligible effects on rainfall. Based on our findings, we suggest cautious interpretation of results from previous studies. To address this uncertainty, better strategy in modeling leaf phenology such as implemented in this study should be adopted.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dushyant Kumar ◽  
Mirjam Pfeiffer ◽  
Camille Gaillard ◽  
Liam Langan ◽  
Simon Scheiter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Evergreen Forest ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Fertilization

Abstract. South Asian vegetation provides essential ecosystem services to the region and its 1.7 billion inhabitants that are closely linked to its land-use forms and carbon storage potential. Yet, biodiversity is threatened by climate and land-use change. Understanding and assessing how ecosystems respond to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and future climate change is of vital importance to avoid undesired ecosystem change. A failure to react to increasing CO2 and climate change will likely have severe consequences for biodiversity and humankind. Here, we used the aDGVM2 to simulate vegetation dynamics in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and we explored how the presence or absence of CO2 fertilization influences vegetation responses to climate change. Simulated vegetation under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects showed a decrease in tree dominance and biomass, whereas simulations with CO2 fertilization showed an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height and a decrease in biome-specific evapotranspiration by the end of the 21st century. The model predicted changes in above ground biomass and canopy cover that trigger biome transition towards tree-dominated systems. We found that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into forest. We also found transitions of deciduous forest to evergreen forest in the mountain regions. C3 photosynthesis dependent vegetation was not saturated at current CO2 concentrations and the model simulated a strong CO2 fertilization effect with the rising CO2. Hence, vegetation in the region will likely remain a carbon sink. Projections showed that the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and eCO2. The results of our study help to understand the regional climate-vegetation interactions and can support the development of regional strategies to preserve ecosystem services and biodiversity under elevated CO2 and climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling vegetation-climate interactions in South and Southeast Asia using a trait-based dynamic vegetation model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Dushyant Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Degraded Forest ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Tropical Asia ◽  
Climate Interactions

Climate controls the broad-scale distribution of vegetation and change in climate will alter the vegetation distribution, biome boundaries, biodiversity, phenology and supply of ecosystem services. A better understanding of the consequences of climate change is required, particularly in under-investigated regions such as tropical Asia, i.e., South and South-east Asia, which is a host to 7 of the 36 global biodiversity hotspots. Conservation strategies would also require an in-depth understanding of the response of vegetation to climate change. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis was to investigate the impact of climate change and rising CO2 vegetation in tropical Asia. Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVMs) are the well-known tools to investigate vegetation-climate interactions and climate change impacts on ecosystems. In this thesis, I used a complex trait-based DGVM called adaptive dynamic vegetation model version 2 (aDGVM2). In Chapter 1, I presented a brief background of the phytogeography and discussed the exiting knowledge gap on vegetation-climate interactions in the region. One major disadvantage for available DGVMs studies for the tropical Asia is that most of them have used fixed plant functional types (PFTs) and do not explicitly represent the distinct varieties of vegetation type of the region such as Asian savannas. In Chapter 2, I discussed at great length to improve DGVMs for South Asia and discussed ways to include them in the model for better representation of region vegetation-climate interaction. I upgraded the current version of aDGVM2 and added a new vegetation type i.e., C3 grasses, and modified the sub-module to simulate photosynthesis for each individual plants to aDGVM2. In chapter 3, I used this updated version of aDGVM2 to simulate the current and future vegetation distribution in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP: representative concentration pathway). The model predicted an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height under the presence of CO2 fertilization, which triggered transitions towards tree-dominated biomes by the end of the 21st century under both RCPs. I found that vegetation along the Western Ghats and the Himalayas are more susceptible to change due to climate change and open biomes such as grassland and savanna are prone to woody encroachment. In Chapter 4, the study domain was extended to include South-east Asia to verify if the model configuration used in Chapter 3 can also simulate vegetation patterns in tropical Asia. The aDGVM2 simulations showed a robust trend of increasing vegetation biomass and transitions from small deciduous vegetation to taller evergreen vegetation across most of tropical Asia. Shifts in plant phenology also affect ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedback to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. The study showed increased biomass due to CO2 fertilization, indicates that the region can remain a carbon sink given there is no other resource limitation. However, nutrient limitations on CO2 fertilization effects were not included in the study, and carbon sink potential has to be seen with caution. In Chapter 5, I focused on Asian savannas, which have been mismanaged since the colonial era due to misinterpretation as a degraded forest. I proposed a biome classification scheme to distinguish between degraded forest or woodland and savanna based on the abundance of grass biomass and canopy cover. I found that considering vegetation systems as woodland or degraded forest could easily be mistaken as a potential for forest restoration within a tree-centric perspective. This would put approximately 35% to 40% of a unique savanna biome at risk. Although projected woody encroachments may imply a transition toward the forest that benefits climate mitigation. This raises potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems, i.e., savanna and active afforestation, to enhance carbon sequestration. Proper management strategies should be taken into account to maintain a balance for both objective In conclusion, the model predicted that vegetation in South and South-East Asia would significantly shift towards tree-dominated biomes due to CO2-induced fertilization of C3-photosynthesis. The simulation under fixed CO2 and rising CO2 scenarios clearly showed that rising level of atmospheric CO2 is responsible for most of the predicted change in biome properties. This study is an important step towards understanding ecosystems of South and Southeast Asia, specifically savannas. The aDGVM2 can serve as tools to inform decision making for climate adaptation and mitigation for savanna. The thesis, thus contributes to our ability to improve conservation strategies to mitigate the consequences of climate change.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Renders Unsuitable Conditions for Paramo Ecosystems in Colombia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8373
Author(s):  
Matilda Cresso ◽  
Nicola Clerici ◽  
Adriana Sanchez ◽  
Fernando Jaramillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future

Paramo ecosystems are tropical alpine grasslands, located above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the Andean mountain range. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments. In this study, we used regional observations and downscaled data for precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature during the reference period 1960–1990 and simulations for the future period 2041–2060 to study the present and future extents of paramo ecosystems in the Chingaza National Park (CNP), nearby Colombia’s capital city, Bogotá. The historical data were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries to determine the locations where paramo ecosystems currently thrive. Our results found that increasing mean monthly temperatures and changing precipitation will render 39 to 52% of the current paramo extent in CNP unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season, and 13 to 34% during the wet season. The greatest loss of paramo area will occur during the dry season and for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5, when both temperature and precipitation boundaries are more prone to be exceeded. Although our initial estimates show the future impact on paramos and the water security of Bogotá due to climate change, complex internal and external interactions in paramo ecosystems make it essential to study other influencing climatic parameters (e.g., soil, topography, wind, etc.) apart from temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals The effects of an experimental drought on the ecophysiology and fruiting phenology of a tropical rainforest palm

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 744-753
Author(s):  
Nara O Vogado ◽  
Michael J Liddell ◽  
Susan G W Laurance ◽  
Mason J Campbell ◽  
Alexander W Cheesman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Stomatal Conductance ◽  
Photosynthetic Rate ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fruiting Phenology ◽  
Physiological Processes ◽  
Throughfall Exclusion ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aims Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to increase mean temperatures and rainfall seasonality. How tropical rainforest species will respond to this climate change remains uncertain. Here, we analysed the effects of a 4-year experimental throughfall exclusion (TFE) on an Australian endemic palm (Normambya normanbyi) in the Daintree rainforest of North Queensland, Australia. We aimed to understand the impact of a simulated reduction in rainfall on the species’ physiological processes and fruiting phenology. Methods We examined the fruiting phenology and ecophysiology of this locally abundant palm to determine the ecological responses of the species to drought. Soil water availability was reduced overall by ~30% under a TFE experiment, established in May 2015. We monitored monthly fruiting activity for 8 years in total (2009–2018), including 4 years prior to the onset of the TFE. In the most recent year of the study, we measured physiological parameters including photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C, an integrated measure of water use efficiency) from young and mature leaves in both the dry and wet seasons. Important Findings We determined that the monthly fruiting activity of all palms was primarily driven by photoperiod, mean solar radiation and mean temperature. However, individuals exposed to lower soil moisture in the TFE decreased significantly in fruiting activity, photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance. We found that these measures of physiological performance were affected by the TFE, season and the interaction of the two. Recovery of fruiting activity in the TFE palms was observed in 2018, when there was an increase in shallow soil moisture compared with previous years in the treatment. Our findings suggest that palms, such as the N. normanbyi, will be sensitive to future climate change with long-term monitoring recommended to determine population-scale impacts.

scholarly journals Effects of Twenty-First-Century Climate Change on the Amazon Rain Forest

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry H. Cook ◽  
Edward K. Vizy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rain Forest ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Subtropical Climate ◽  
Amazon Rain Forest ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract A regional atmospheric model with 60-km resolution is asynchronously coupled with a potential vegetation model to study the implications of twenty-first-century climate change for the tropical and subtropical climate and vegetation of South America. The coupled model produces an accurate simulation of the present day climate and vegetation. Future climate is simulated by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels to 757 ppmv and imposing lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from a GCM simulation for 2081–2100 from the Canadian Climate Center GCM. The coupled regional model simulation projects a 70% reduction in the extent of the Amazon rain forest by the end of the twenty-first century and a large eastward expansion of the caatinga vegetation that is prominent in the Nordeste region of Brazil today. These changes in vegetation are related to reductions in annual mean rainfall and a modification of the seasonal cycle that are associated with a weakening of tropical circulation systems.

Downscaled Climate Change Projections for Wa District in the Savanna Zone of Ghana

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng ◽  
◽  
Bruce Hewitson ◽  
Edwin Akonno Gyasi ◽  
Mark Kofi Abekoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Savanna Zone

The possibility of future climate change in Ghana has received much attention due to repeated droughts and floods over the last decades. The savanna zone which is described as the food basket of Ghana is highly susceptible to climate change impact. Scenarios from 20-year time slices of the near future – 2046-2065 – and the far future – 2081-2100 – climate change meant to help guide policy remain a challenge. Empirical downscaling performed at the local-scale of Wa District in the savanna zone of Ghana under the IPCC A2 SRES emissions scenario showed evidence of probable climate change with mean annual temperatures expected to increase over an estimated range of 1.5°C to 2.3°C in the near future, with number of cool nights becoming less frequent, especially during the Harmattan1 period. The dry season is expected to be warmer than the wet season, with high inter-annual variations projected in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. Given an average of 1 day of Tmax > 40°C per month in the control period of 1961-2000, the number of hot days is expected to increase to 12 by 2046-2065. An increase in total rainfall is projected with possible shifts in distribution toward the end of the year, with a slight increase in rainfall during the dry season and an increase of rainfall at the onset and toward the end of the wet season. However, a decrease in June rainfall is projected in the wet season. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future climate as a guide to local level medium-term development plans of effective adaptation options for Wa district in the savanna zone of Ghana.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document