scholarly journals Scale Characterization and Correction of Diurnal Cycle Errors in MAPLE

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2561-2575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aitor Atencia ◽  
Isztar Zawadzki ◽  
Marc Berenguer
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Correction Scheme ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Scale Characterization ◽  
Composite Data

AbstractThe most widely used technique for nowcasting of quantitative precipitation in operational and research centers is the Lagrangian extrapolation of the latest radar observations. However, this technique has a limited forecast skill because of the assumption made on its formulation, such as the fact that the motion vectors do not change and, even more important for convective events, neglect any growth or decay in the precipitation field. In this work, the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) errors have been computed for 10 yr of radar composite data over the continental United States. The study of these errors shows systematic bias depending on the time of day. This effect is related to the solar cycle, whose heating energy results in an increase in the average rainfall in the afternoon. This external forcing interacts with the atmospheric system, creating local initiation and dissipation of convection depending on orography, land use, cloud coverage, etc. The signal of the diurnal cycle in MAPLE precipitation forecast has been studied in different locations and spatial scales as a function of lead time in order to recognize where, when, and for which spatial scales the signal is significant. This information has been used in the development of a scaling correction scheme where the mean errors due to the diurnal cycle are adjusted. The results show that the developed methodology improves the forecast for the spatial scales and locations where the diurnal cycle signal is significant.

scholarly journals Verifying Operational Forecasts of Land–Sea-Breeze and Boundary Layer Mixing Processes

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 1427-1445
Author(s):  
Ewan Short
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Diurnal Wind

AbstractForecasters working for Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) produce a 7-day forecast in two key steps: first they choose a model guidance dataset to base the forecast on, and then they use graphical software to manually edit these data. Two types of edits are commonly made to the wind fields that aim to improve how the influences of boundary layer mixing and land–sea-breeze processes are represented in the forecast. In this study the diurnally varying component of the BoM’s official wind forecast is compared with that of station observations and unedited model guidance datasets. Coastal locations across Australia over June, July, and August 2018 are considered, with data aggregated over three spatial scales. The edited forecast produces a lower mean absolute error than model guidance at the coarsest spatial scale (over 50 000 km2), and achieves lower seasonal biases over all spatial scales. However, the edited forecast only reduces errors or biases at particular times and locations, and rarely produces lower errors or biases than all model guidance products simultaneously. To better understand physical reasons for biases in the mean diurnal wind cycles, modified ellipses are fitted to the seasonally averaged diurnal wind temporal hodographs. Biases in the official forecast diurnal cycle vary with location for multiple reasons, including biases in the directions that sea breezes approach coastlines, amplitude biases, and disagreement in the relative contribution of sea-breeze and boundary layer mixing processes to the mean diurnal cycle.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution general circulation model in a range of decision-relevant spatial scales

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 6381-6405
Author(s):  
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt ◽  
Reinhard Schiemann ◽  
Andrew G. Turner ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Physical Geography ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Precipitation Bias

Abstract. High-resolution general circulation models (GCMs) can provide new insights into the simulated distribution of global precipitation. We evaluate how summer precipitation is represented over Asia in global simulations with a grid length of 14 km. Three simulations were performed: one with a convection parametrization, one with convection represented explicitly by the model's dynamics, and a hybrid simulation with only shallow and mid-level convection parametrized. We evaluate the mean simulated precipitation and the diurnal cycle of the amount, frequency, and intensity of the precipitation against satellite observations of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH). We also compare the high-resolution simulations with coarser simulations that use parametrized convection. The simulated and observed precipitation is averaged over spatial scales defined by the hydrological catchment basins; these provide a natural spatial scale for performing decision-relevant analysis that is tied to the underlying regional physical geography. By selecting basins of different sizes, we evaluate the simulations as a function of the spatial scale. A new BAsin-Scale Model Assessment ToolkIt (BASMATI) is described, which facilitates this analysis. We find that there are strong wet biases (locally up to 72 mm d−1 at small spatial scales) in the mean precipitation over mountainous regions such as the Himalayas. The explicit convection simulation worsens existing wet and dry biases compared to the parametrized convection simulation. When the analysis is performed at different basin scales, the precipitation bias decreases as the spatial scales increase for all the simulations; the lowest-resolution simulation has the smallest root mean squared error compared to CMORPH. In the simulations, a positive mean precipitation bias over China is primarily found to be due to too frequent precipitation for the parametrized convection simulation and too intense precipitation for the explicit convection simulation. The simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation is strongly affected by the representation of convection: parametrized convection produces a peak in precipitation too close to midday over land, whereas explicit convection produces a peak that is closer to the late afternoon peak seen in observations. At increasing spatial scale, the representation of the diurnal cycle in the explicit and hybrid convection simulations improves when compared to CMORPH; this is not true for any of the parametrized simulations. Some of the strengths and weaknesses of simulated precipitation in a high-resolution GCM are found: the diurnal cycle is improved at all spatial scales with convection parametrization disabled, the interaction of the flow with orography exacerbates existing biases for mean precipitation in the high-resolution simulations, and parametrized simulations produce similar diurnal cycles regardless of their resolution. The need for tuning the high-resolution simulations is made clear. Our approach for evaluating simulated precipitation across a range of scales is widely applicable to other GCMs.

scholarly journals Verification of NWP Model Analyses and Radiosonde Humidity Data with GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Estimates during AMMA

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1085-1101 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Bock ◽  
M. Nuret
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Precipitable Water Vapor ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Correction Scheme ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract This paper assesses the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) operational analysis and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses I and II over West Africa, using precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from a network of ground-based GPS receivers operated during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). The model analyses show reasonable agreement with GPS PWV from 5-daily to monthly means. Errors increase at shorter time scales, indicating that these global NWP models have difficulty in handling the diurnal cycle and moist processes at the synoptic scale. The ECMWF-IFS analysis shows better agreement with GPS PWV than do the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses (the RMS error is smaller by a factor of 2). The model changes in ECMWF-IFS were not clearly reflected in the PWV error over the period of study (2005–08). Radiosonde humidity biases are diagnosed compared to GPS PWV. The impacts of these biases are evidenced in all three model analyses at the level of the diurnal cycle. The results point to a dry bias in the ECMWF analysis in 2006 when Vaisala RS80-A soundings were assimilated, and a diurnally varying bias when Vaisala RS92 or Modem M2K2 soundings were assimilated: dry during day and wet during night. The overall bias is offset to wetter values in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis II, but the diurnal variation of the bias is observed too. Radiosonde bias correction is necessary to reduce NWP model analysis humidity biases and improve precipitation forecast skill. The study points to a wet bias in the Vaisala RS92 data at nighttime and suggests that caution be used when establishing a bias correction scheme.

scholarly journals Evaluating convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of precipitation over Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Ferrett ◽  
Thomas H. A. Frame ◽  
John Methven ◽  
Christopher E. Holloway ◽  
Stuart Webster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractForecasting rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. Convection-permitting (CP) models are intended to enable forecasts of high-impact weather events. Development and operation of these models in the tropics has only just been realised. This study describes and evaluates a suite of recently developed Met Office Unified Model CP ensemble forecasts over three domains in Southeast Asia, covering Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.Fractions Skill Score is used to assess the spatial scale-dependence of skill in forecasts of precipitation during October 2018 - March 2019. CP forecasts are skilful for 3-hour precipitation accumulations at spatial scales greater than 200 km in all domains during the first day of forecasts. Skill decreases with lead time but varies depending on time of day over Malaysia and Indonesia, due to the importance of the diurnal cycle in driving rainfall in those regions. Skill is largest during daytime when precipitation is over land and is constrained by orography. Comparison of CP ensembles using 2.2, 4.5 and 8.8 km grid spacing and an 8.8km ensemble with parameterised convection reveals that varying resolution has much less effect on ensemble skill and spread than the representation of convection. The parameterised ensemble is less skilful than CP ensembles over Malaysia and Indonesia and more skilful over the Philippines; however, the parameterised ensemble has large drops in skill and spread related to deficiencies in its diurnal cycle representation. All ensembles are under-spread indicating that future model development should focus on this issue.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution GCM at a range of decision-relevant spatial scales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt ◽  
Reinhard Schiemann ◽  
Andrew G. Turner ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Physical Geography ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Precipitation Bias

Abstract. High-resolution general circulation models (GCMs) can provide new insights into the simulated distribution of global precipitation. We evaluate how summer precipitation is represented over Asia in global simulations with a grid length of 14 km. Three simulations were performed: one with a convection parametrization, one with convection represented explicitly by the model's dynamics, and a hybrid simulation with only shallow and mid-level convection parametrized. We evaluate the mean simulated precipitation and the diurnal cycle of the amount, frequency and intensity of the precipitation against satellite observations of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH). We also compare the high-resolution simulations with coarser simulations that use parametrized convection. The simulated and observed precipitation is averaged over spatial scales defined by the hydrological catchment basins; these provide a natural spatial scale for performing decision-relevant analysis that is tied to the underlying regional physical geography. By selecting basins of different sizes, we evaluate the simulations as a function of the spatial scale. A new BAsin-Scale Model Assessment ToolkIt (BASMATI) is described, which facilitates this analysis. We find that there are strong wet biases (locally up to 72 mm day−1 at small spatial scales) in the mean precipitation over mountainous regions such as the Himalayas. The explicit convection simulation worsens existing wet and dry biases compared to the parametrized convection simulation. When the analysis is performed at different basin scales, the precipitation bias decreases as the spatial scales increase for all simulations; the lowest-resolution simulation has the smallest root mean squared error compared to CMORPH. In the simulations, a positive mean precipitation bias over China is primarily found to be due to too frequent precipitation for the parametrized convection simulation, and too intense precipitation for the explicit convection simulation. The simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation is strongly affected by the representation of convection: parametrized convection produces a peak in precipitation too close to midday over land, whereas explicit convection produces a peak that is closer to the late afternoon peak seen in observations. At increasing spatial scale, the representation of the diurnal cycle in the explicit and hybrid convection simulations improves when compared to CMORPH; this is not true for any of the parametrized simulations. Some of the strengths and weaknesses of simulated precipitation in a high-resolution GCM are found: the diurnal cycle is improved at all spatial scales with convection parametrization disabled; the interaction of the flow with orography exacerbates existing biases for mean precipitation in the high-resolution simulations; and parametrized simulations produce similar diurnal cycles regardless of their resolution. The need for tuning the high-resolution simulations is made clear. Our approach for evaluating simulated precipitation across a range of scales is widely applicable to other GCMs.

Thermoregulatory responses to cold water at different times of day

1999 ◽  
Vol 87 (1) ◽  
pp. 243-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Castellani ◽  
Andrew J. Young ◽  
James E. Kain ◽  
Michael N. Sawka
Keyword(s):  
Cold Water ◽  
Water Immersion ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Cold Water Immersion ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Mean Skin Temperature ◽  
Mean Body Temperature ◽  
Metabolic Heat ◽  
Body Temperature Change ◽  
The Mean

This study examined how time of day affects thermoregulation during cold-water immersion (CWI). It was hypothesized that the shivering and vasoconstrictor responses to CWI would differ at 0700 vs. 1500 because of lower initial core temperatures (Tcore) at 0700. Nine men were immersed (20°C, 2 h) at 0700 and 1500 on 2 days. No differences ( P > 0.05) between times were observed for metabolic heat production (M˙, 150 W ⋅ m−2), heat flow (250 W ⋅ m−2), mean skin temperature (T sk, 21°C), and the mean body temperature-change in M˙(ΔM˙) relationship. Rectal temperature (Tre) was higher ( P < 0.05) before (Δ = 0.4°C) and throughout CWI during 1500. The change in Tre was greater ( P < 0.05) at 1500 (−1.4°C) vs. 0700 (−1.2°C), likely because of the higher Tre-T skgradient (0.3°C) at 1500. These data indicate that shivering and vasoconstriction are not affected by time of day. These observations raise the possibility that CWI may increase the risk of hypothermia in the early morning because of a lower initial Tcore.

scholarly journals Diurnal Coupling in the Tropical Oceans of CCSM3

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2347-2365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
William G. Large ◽  
Joseph J. Tribbia ◽  
Peter R. Gent ◽  
Bruce P. Briegleb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Layer Depth ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Coupling Interval ◽  
The Mean

Abstract New features that may affect the behavior of the upper ocean in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) are described. In particular, the addition of an idealized diurnal cycle of solar forcing where the daily mean solar radiation received in each daily coupling interval is distributed over 12 daylight hours is evaluated. The motivation for this simple diurnal cycle is to improve the behavior of the upper ocean, relative to the constant forcing over each day of previous CCSM versions. Both 1- and 3-h coupling intervals are also considered as possible alternatives that explicitly resolve the diurnal cycle of solar forcing. The most prominent and robust effects of all these diurnal cycles are found in the tropical oceans, especially in the Pacific. Here, the mean equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is warmed by as much as 1°C, in better agreement with observations, and the mean boundary layer depth is reduced. Simple rectification of the diurnal cycle explains about half of the shallowing, but less than 0.1°C of the warming. The atmospheric response to prescribed warm SST anomalies of about 1°C displays a very different heat flux signature. The implication, yet to be verified, is that large-scale air–sea coupling is a prime mechanism for amplifying the rectified, daily averaged SST signals seen by the atmosphere. Although the use of upper-layer temperature for SST in CCSM3 underestimates the diurnal cycle of SST, many of the essential characteristics of diurnal cycling within the equatorial ocean are reproduced, including boundary layer depth, currents, and the parameterized vertical heat and momentum fluxes associated with deep-cycle turbulence. The conclusion is that the implementation of an idealized diurnal cycle of solar forcing may make more frequent ocean coupling and its computational complications unnecessary as improvements to the air–sea coupling in CCSM3 continue. A caveat here is that more frequent ocean coupling tends to reduce the long-term cooling trends typical of CCSM3 by heating already too warm ocean depths, but longer integrations are needed to determine robust features. A clear result is that the absence of diurnal solar forcing of the ocean has several undesirable consequences in CCSM3, including too large ENSO variability, much too cold Pacific equatorial SST, and no deep-cycle turbulence.

Twenty-four-hour rhythms of plasma glucose and insulin secretion rate in regular night workers

2000 ◽  
Vol 278 (3) ◽  
pp. E413-E420 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Simon ◽  
L. Weibel ◽  
G. Brandenberger
Keyword(s):  
Insulin Secretion ◽  
Mean Amplitude ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Secretion Rate ◽  
Nocturnal Sleep ◽  
Sleep Condition ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Nighttime Sleep ◽  
Insulin Secretion Rate

To determine whether the ultradian and circadian rhythms of glucose and insulin secretion rate (ISR) are adapted to their permanent nocturnal schedule, eight night workers were studied during their usual 24-h cycle with continuous enteral nutrition and a 10-min blood sampling procedure and were compared with 8 day-active subjects studied once with nocturnal sleep and once with an acute 8-h-shifted sleep. The mean 24-h glucose and ISR levels were similar in the three experiments. The duration and the number of the ultradian oscillations were influenced neither by the time of day nor by the sleep condition or its shift, but their mean amplitude increased during sleep whenever it occurred. In day-active subjects, glucose and ISR levels were high during nighttime sleep and then decreased to a minimum in the afternoon. After the acute sleep shift, the glucose and ISR rhythms were split in a biphasic pattern with a slight increase during the night of deprivation and another during daytime sleep. In night workers, the glucose and ISR peak levels exhibited an 8-h shift in accordance with the sleep shift, but the onset of the glucose rise underwent a shift of only 6 h and the sleep-related amplification of the glucose and ISR oscillations did not occur simultaneously. These results demonstrate that despite a predominant influence of sleep, the 24-h glucose and ISR rhythms are only partially adapted in permanent night workers.

scholarly journals Assessment of intraocular pressure in chinchillas of different age groups using rebound tonometry

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (8) ◽  
pp. 1466-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flor Diana Yokoay Claros Chacaltana ◽  
João Antonio Tadeu Pigatto ◽  
Ione Terezinha Denardin
Keyword(s):  
Intraocular Pressure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Group Iii ◽  
Rebound Tonometer ◽  
Indirect Ophthalmoscopy ◽  
Group I ◽  
Schirmer Tear Test ◽  
The Mean

ABSTRACT: The aim of this research was to measure the intraocular pressure (IOP) of normal chinchilla eyes using the rebound tonometer. A further aim was to assess whether there were differences in the values of intraocular pressure in relation to animals age, gender and time of day. Thirty-six chinchillas were divided into three groups of 12 chinchillas each, by age: Group I (2-6-month-old), Group II (20 and 34 months) and Group III (37 and 135 months). Ophthalmic examination was performed previously by Schirmer tear test, slit lamp biomicroscopy, indirect ophthalmoscopy and fluorescein test in all chinchillas. Three measurements of intraocular pressure were assessed on the same day (7, 12 and 19h). Tonometry was performed on both eyes using the rebound tonometer after calibration in "p" mode. Statistical analysis was performed with SigmaPlot for Windows. The mean IOP for groups I, II and III were 2.47±0.581mmHg, 2.47±0.581mmHg and 2.51±0.531mmHg, respectively. No significant differences were reported between age and IOP and no significant differences were reported between the time of day and IOP. The IOP in chinchillas did not differ significantly between genders or ages of the animals, and did not change with time of day.

scholarly journals Reliability and validity of a Mediterranean diet and culinary index (MediCul) tool in an older population with mild cognitive impairment

2018 ◽  
Vol 120 (10) ◽  
pp. 1189-1200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sue Radd-Vagenas ◽  
Maria A. Fiatarone Singh ◽  
Michael Inskip ◽  
Yorgi Mavros ◽  
Nicola Gates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Mild Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Mediterranean Diet ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Retest Reliability ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Test Retest Reliability

AbstractDementia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality without pharmacologic prevention or cure. Mounting evidence suggests that adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern may slow cognitive decline, and is important to characterise in at-risk cohorts. Thus, we determined the reliability and validity of the Mediterranean Diet and Culinary Index (MediCul), a new tool, among community-dwelling individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). A total of sixty-eight participants (66 % female) aged 75·9 (sd 6·6) years, from the Study of Mental and Resistance Training study MCI cohort, completed the fifty-item MediCul at two time points, followed by a 3-d food record (FR). MediCul test–retest reliability was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC), Bland–Altman plots and κ agreement within seventeen dietary element categories. Validity was assessed against the FR using the Bland–Altman method and nutrient trends across MediCul score tertiles. The mean MediCul score was 54·6/100·0, with few participants reaching thresholds for key Mediterranean foods. MediCul had very good test–retest reliability (ICC=0·93, 95 % CI 0·884, 0·954, P<0·0001) with fair-to-almost-perfect agreement for classifying elements within the same category. Validity was moderate with no systematic bias between methods of measurement, according to the regression coefficient (y=−2·30+0·17x) (95 % CI −0·027, 0·358; P=0·091). MediCul over-estimated the mean FR score by 6 %, with limits of agreement being under- and over-estimated by 11 and 23 %, respectively. Nutrient trends were significantly associated with increased MediCul scoring, consistent with a Mediterranean pattern. MediCul provides reliable and moderately valid information about Mediterranean diet adherence among older individuals with MCI, with potential application in future studies assessing relationships between diet and cognitive function.

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