The role of a tropopause polar vortex in the generation of the January 2019 extreme Arctic outbreak

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel P. Lillo ◽  
Steven M. Cavallo ◽  
David B. Parsons ◽  
Christopher Riedel
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Direct Consequence ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Cold Air Outbreak ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAn extreme Arctic cold air outbreak took place across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast during 29 January to 1 February 2019. The event broke numerous long-standing records with wide-reaching and detrimental societal impacts. This study found that this rare and dangerous cold air out-break (CAO) was a direct consequence of a tropopause polar vortex (TPV) originating at high latitudes and subsequently tracking southward into the United States. The tropopause depression at the center of this TPV extended nearly to the surface. Simulations using the atmospheric component of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) were conducted revealing excellent predictability at 6-7 days lead times with the strength, timing, and location of the CAO linked to the earlier characteristics of the TPV over the Arctic. Within the middle latitudes, the TPV subsequently developed a tilt with height. Warming and the destruction of potential vorticity also took place as the TPV passed over the Great Lakes initiating a lake effect snow storm. The climatological investigation of CAOs suggests that TPVs frequently play a role in CAOs over North America with a TPV located within 1000 km of a CAO 85% of the time. These TPVs tended to originate in the Northern Canadian Arctic and are ejected equatorward into the Great Lakes/Upper-midwest and then to the northeast over Labrador. This study also provides insight into how the impact of Arctic circulations on middle latitudes may vary within the framework of a rapidly changing Arctic.

THE ACTIVITIES OF THE USA AND CHINA IN THE REGIONS OF THE WORLD, AFFECTING THE REALIZATION OF RUSSIA'S INTERESTS. Part 1: country interests and activities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 149-166
Author(s):  
Dmitry V. Gordienko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the interests of Russia, the United States and China in the regions of the world and identifies the priorities of Russia's activities in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Asia-Pacific region, the Arctic, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, their comparative assessment with the interests of the United States and China. An approach to assessing the impact of possible consequences of the activities of the United States and China on the realization of Russia's interests is proposed. This makes it possible to identify the priorities of the policy of the Russian Federation in various regions of the world. The results of the analysis can be used to substantiate recommendations to the military-political leadership of our country. It is concluded that the discrepancy between the interests of the United States and China is important for the implementation of the current economic and military policy of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Winter 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming impact on midlatitude mesosphere from microwave radiometer measurements

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 10303-10317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuke Wang ◽  
Valerii Shulga ◽  
Gennadi Milinevsky ◽  
Aleksey Patoka ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Midlatitude Mesosphere

Abstract. The impact of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic in February 2018 on the midlatitude mesosphere is investigated by performing the microwave radiometer measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0∘ N, 36.3∘ E). The mesospheric peculiarities of this SSW event were observed using a recently designed and installed microwave radiometer in eastern Europe for the first time. Data from the ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses, as well as the Aura microwave limb sounder measurements, are also used. Microwave observations of the daily CO profiles in January–March 2018 allowed for the retrieval of mesospheric zonal wind at 70–85 km (below the winter mesopause) over the Kharkiv site. Reversal of the mesospheric westerly from about 10 m s−1 to an easterly wind of about −10 m s−1 around 10 February was observed. The local microwave observations at our Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude site combined with reanalysis data show wide-ranging daily variability in CO, zonal wind, and temperature in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the SSW of 2018. The observed local CO variability can be explained mainly by horizontal air mass redistribution due to planetary wave activity. Replacement of the CO-rich polar vortex air by CO-poor air of the surrounding area led to a significant mesospheric CO decrease over the station during the SSW and fragmentation of the vortex over the station at the SSW start caused enhanced stratospheric CO at about 30 km. The results of microwave measurements of CO and zonal wind in the midlatitude mesosphere at 70–85 km altitudes, which still are not adequately covered by ground-based observations, are useful for improving our understanding of the SSW impacts in this region.

scholarly journals Linking the uncertainty in simulated arctic ozone losses to modelling of tropical stratospheric water vapour

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Thölix ◽  
Alexey Karpechko ◽  
Leif Backman ◽  
Rigel Kivi
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Water Vapour Concentration ◽  
Vapour Concentration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapor plays a key role in radiative and chemical processes, it e.g. influences the chemical ozone loss via controlling the polar stratospheric cloud formation in the polar stratosphere. The amount of water entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause differs substantially between chemistry-climate models. This is because the present-day models have difficulties in capturing the whole complexity of processes that control the water transport across the tropopause. As a result there are large differences in the stratospheric water vapour between the models. In this study we investigate the sensitivity of simulated Arctic ozone loss to the amount of water, which enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause. We used a chemical transport model, FinROSE-CTM, forced by ERA-Interim meteorology. The water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause was varied between 0.5 and 1.6 times the concentration in ERA-Interim, which is similar to the range seen in chemistry climate models. The water vapour changes in the tropical tropopause led to about 1.5 and 2 ppm more water vapour in the Arctic polar vortex compared to the ERA-Interim, respectively. We found that the impact of water vapour changes on ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex depend on the meteorological conditions. Polar stratospheric clouds form in the cold conditions within the Arctic vortex, and chlorine activation on their surface lead to ozone loss. If the cold conditions persist long enough (e.g. in 2010/11), the chlorine activation is nearly complete. In this case addition of water vapour to the stratosphere increased the formation of ICE clouds, but did not increase the chlorine activation and ozone destruction significantly. In the warm winter 2012/13 the impact of water vapour concentration on ozone loss was small, because the ozone loss was mainly NOx induced. In intermediately cold conditions, e.g. 2013/14, the effect of added water vapour was more prominent than in the other studied winters. The results show that the simulated water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause has a significant impact on the Arctic ozone loss and deserves attention in order to improve future projections of ozone layer recovery.

scholarly journals Enhanced Seasonal Prediction of European Winter Warming following Volcanic Eruptions

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (23) ◽  
pp. 6168-6180 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Marshall ◽  
A. A. Scaife ◽  
S. Ineson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes is assessed in two versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre’s atmospheric climate model. The standard version of the model extends to an altitude of around 40 km, while the extended version has enhanced stratospheric resolution and reaches 85-km altitude. Seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 December produce a strengthening of the winter polar vortex and anomalous warming over northern Europe characteristic of the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) when forced with volcanic aerosol following the 1963 Mount Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions, as is observed. The AO signal in the extended model is of comparable strength to that in the standard model, showing that there is little impact from both increasing the vertical resolution in the stratosphere and extending the model domain to near the mesopause. The presence of this signal in the models, however, is likely due to the persistence of the observed signal from the initial conditions, because a similar set of experiments initiated with the same conditions, but with no volcanic aerosol forcing, exhibits a similar response as the forced runs. This suggests that the model has limited fidelity in capturing the response to volcanic aerosols on its own, consistent with previous studies on the impact of volcanic forcing in long climate simulations, but does support the premise that seasonal winter forecasts are substantially improved with the inclusion of stratospheric information.

scholarly journals A Match-based approach to the estimation of polar stratospheric ozone loss using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 9945-9963 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. J. Livesey ◽  
M. L. Santee ◽  
G. L. Manney
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Chemical Destruction ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The well-established "Match" approach to quantifying chemical destruction of ozone in the polar lower stratosphere is applied to ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Aura spacecraft. Quantification of ozone loss requires distinguishing transport- and chemically induced changes in ozone abundance. This is accomplished in the Match approach by examining cases where trajectories indicate that the same air mass has been observed on multiple occasions. The method was pioneered using ozonesonde observations, for which hundreds of matched ozone observations per winter are typically available. The dense coverage of the MLS measurements, particularly at polar latitudes, allows matches to be made to thousands of observations each day. This study is enabled by recently developed MLS Lagrangian trajectory diagnostic (LTD) support products. Sensitivity studies indicate that the largest influence on the ozone loss estimates are the value of potential vorticity (PV) used to define the edge of the polar vortex (within which matched observations must lie) and the degree to which the PV of an air mass is allowed to vary between matched observations. Applying Match calculations to MLS observations of nitrous oxide, a long-lived tracer whose expected rate of change is negligible on the weekly to monthly timescales considered here, enables quantification of the impact of transport errors on the Match-based ozone loss estimates. Our loss estimates are generally in agreement with previous estimates for selected Arctic winters, though indicating smaller losses than many other studies. Arctic ozone losses are greatest during the 2010/11 winter, as seen in prior studies, with 2.0 ppmv (parts per million by volume) loss estimated at 450 K potential temperature (~ 18 km altitude). As expected, Antarctic winter ozone losses are consistently greater than those for the Arctic, with less interannual variability (e.g., ranging between 2.3 and 3.0 ppmv at 450 K). This study exemplifies the insights into atmospheric processes that can be obtained by applying the Match methodology to a densely sampled observation record such as that from Aura MLS.

scholarly journals The impact of mid-latitude intrusions into the polar vortex on ozone loss estimates

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-U. Grooß ◽  
R. Müller
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Match Method ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Rates

Abstract. Current stratospheric chemical model simulations underestimate substantially the large ozone loss rates that are derived for the Arctic from ozone sondes for January of some years. Until now, no explanation for this discrepancy has been found. Here, we examine the influence of intrusions of mid-latitude air into the polar vortex on these ozone loss estimates. This study focuses on the winter 1991/92, because during this winter the discrepancy between simulated and experimentally derived ozone loss rates is reported to be the largest. Also during the considered period the vortex was disturbed by a strong warming event with large-scale intrusions of mid-latitude air into the polar vortex, which is quite unusual for this time of the year. The study is based on simulations performed with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Two methods for determination the ozone loss are investigated, the so-called vortex average approach and the Match method. The simulations for January 1992 show that the intrusions induce a reduction of vortex average ozone mixing ratio corresponding to a systematic offset of the ozone loss rate of about 12 ppb per day. This should be corrected for in the vortex average method. The simulations further suggest, that these intrusions do not cause a significant bias for the Match method due to effective quality control measures in the Match technique.

scholarly journals How does downward planetary wave coupling affect polar stratospheric ozone in the Arctic winter stratosphere?

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 2437-2458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandro W. Lubis ◽  
Vered Silverman ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Nili Harnik ◽  
Nour-Eddine Omrani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Wave Reflection ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Wave Flux ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. It is well established that variable wintertime planetary wave forcing in the stratosphere controls the variability of Arctic stratospheric ozone through changes in the strength of the polar vortex and the residual circulation. While previous studies focused on the variations in upward wave flux entering the lower stratosphere, here the impact of downward planetary wave reflection on ozone is investigated for the first time. Utilizing the MERRA2 reanalysis and a fully coupled chemistry–climate simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1(WACCM)) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), we find two downward wave reflection effects on ozone: (1) the direct effect in which the residual circulation is weakened during winter, reducing the typical increase of ozone due to upward planetary wave events and (2) the indirect effect in which the modification of polar temperature during winter affects the amount of ozone destruction in spring. Winter seasons dominated by downward wave reflection events (i.e., reflective winters) are characterized by lower Arctic ozone concentration, while seasons dominated by increased upward wave events (i.e., absorptive winters) are characterized by relatively higher ozone concentration. This behavior is consistent with the cumulative effects of downward and upward planetary wave events on polar stratospheric ozone via the residual circulation and the polar temperature in winter. The results establish a new perspective on dynamical processes controlling stratospheric ozone variability in the Arctic by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.

scholarly journals Robust effects of springtime Arctic ozone depletion on surface climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Friedel ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Daniela Domeisen ◽  
Stephan Fueglistaler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Negative Temperature ◽  
Significant Degree ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Northern Hemispheric ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Massive spring ozone loss due to anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting substances is not limited to the austral hemisphere, but can also occur in the Arctic. Previous studies have suggested a link between springtime Arctic ozone depletion and Northern Hemispheric surface climate, which might add surface predictability. However, so far it has not been possible to isolate the role of stratospheric ozone from dynamical downward impacts. For the first time, we quantify the impact of springtime Arctic ozone depletion on surface climate using observations and targeted chemistry-climate model experiments to isolate the effects of ozone feedbacks. We find that springtime stratospheric ozone depletion is followed by surface anomalies in precipitation and temperature resembling a positive Arctic Oscillation. Most notably, we show that these anomalies, affecting large portions of the Northern Hemisphere, cannot be explained by dynamical variability alone, but are to a significant degree driven by stratospheric ozone. The surface signal is linked to reduced shortwave absorption by stratospheric ozone, forcing persistent negative temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and a delayed breakup of the polar vortex - analogous to ozone-surface coupling in the Southern Hemisphere.These results suggest that Arctic stratospheric ozone actively forces springtime Northern Hemispheric surface climate and thus provides a source of predictability on seasonal scales.

scholarly journals The impact of mid-latitude intrusions into the polar vortex on ozone loss estimates

2002 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 2489-2506
Author(s):  
J.-U. Grooß ◽  
R. Müller
Keyword(s):  
Loss Rate ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Match Method ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Current stratospheric chemical model simulations underestimate substantially the large ozone loss rates that are derived for the Arctic from ozone sondes for January of some years. Until now, no explanation for this discrepancy has been found. Here, we examine the influence of intrusions of mid-latitude air into the polar vortex on these ozone loss estimates. This study focuses on the winter 1991/92. It is based on simulations performed with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The simulations for January 1992 show that the intrusions induce a reduction of vortex average ozone mixing ratio corresponding to a systematic offset of the ozone loss rate of about 12 ppb per day. Further, the results of the Match method are influenced by the intrusions, since the intruded air masses are deformed and reach dimensions below the Match radius. From our calculations we deduce a systematic offset of the Match ozone loss rate by about 10 ppb/day, which may explain about 28% of the published discrepancy between Match and box model simulations for the winter 1991/92.

scholarly journals Heavy Lake-Effect Snowfall Changes and Mechanisms for the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1577
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Huziy ◽  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama ◽  
Ram Yerubandi
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes ◽  
Lake Ice ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Climate Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Ratio

Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are snowfall events enhanced by interactions between lakes and overlying cold air. Significant snowfall rates and accumulations caused during such events disrupt socioeconomic activities and sometimes lead to lethal consequences. The aim of this study is to assess projected changes to HLES by the end of the century (2079–2100) using a regional climate model for the first time with 3D representation for the Laurentian Great Lakes. When compared to observations over the 1989–2010 period, the model is able to realistically reproduce key mechanisms and characteristics of HLES events, thus increasing confidence in future projections. Projected changes to the frequency and amount of HLES suggest decreasing patterns, during the onset, active and decline phases of HLES. Despite reduced lake ice cover that will allow enhanced lake–atmosphere interactions favouring HLES, the warmer temperatures and associated increase in liquid to solid precipitation ratio along with reduced cold air outbreaks contribute to reduced HLES in the future climate. Analysis of the correlation patterns for current and future climates further supports the weaker impact of lake ice fraction on HLES in future climates. Albeit the decreases in HLES frequency and intensity and projected increases in extreme snowfall events (resulting from all mechanisms) raise concerns for impacts on the transportation, infrastructure and hydropower sectors in the region.

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