scholarly journals Dehumidification over Tropical Continents Reduces Climate Sensitivity and Inhibits Snowball Earth Initiation

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9677-9695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P. Fiorella ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Lower Surface ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Snowball Earth ◽  
Silicate Weathering ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
The Difference

The enigmatic Neoproterozoic geological record suggests the potential for a fully glaciated “snowball Earth.” Low-latitude continental position has been invoked as a potential snowball Earth trigger by increasing surface albedo and decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations through increased silicate weathering. Herein, climate response to the reduction of total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 concentration is tested using four different land configurations (aquaplanet, modern, Neoproterozoic, and low-latitude supercontinent) with uniform topography in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 (CAM3.1), GCM with a mixed layer ocean. Despite a lower surface albedo at 100% TSI, the threshold for global glaciation decreases from 92% TSI in the aquaplanet configuration to 85% TSI with a low-latitude supercontinent. The difference in thresholds is principally because of the partitioning of local longwave cooling relative to poleward energy transport. Additionally, dehumidification of the troposphere over large tropical continents in CAM3.1 increases direct heating by decreasing cloud cover. Continental heating intensifies the Walker circulation, enhancing surface evaporation and moistening the marine troposphere. Topography also provides an important control on snowball Earth initiation. Modern topography in the modern continental arrangement eases snowball initiation, requiring a 2% smaller reduction in TSI relative to a modern continental arrangement without topography. In the absence of potential silicate weathering feedbacks, large tropical landmasses raise the barrier to initiation of snowball events. More generally, these simulations demonstrate the substantial influence of geography on climate sensitivity and challenge the notion that the reduced continental area early in Earth history might provide a solution to the faint young Sun paradox.

scholarly journals Separation of Contributions from Radiative Feedbacks to Polar Amplification on an Aquaplanet

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 3010-3024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Rune Grand Graversen ◽  
Thorsten Mauritsen
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
The Difference

Abstract When climate is forced by a doubling of CO2, a number of feedback processes are induced, such as changes of water vapor, clouds, and surface albedo. Here the CO2 forcing and concomitant feedbacks are studied individually using a general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet mixed layer ocean. A technique for fixing the radiative effects of moisture and clouds by reusing these variables from 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 equilibrium climates in the model’s radiation code allows for a detailed decomposition of forcings, feedbacks, and responses. The cloud feedback in this model is found to have a weak global average effect and surface albedo feedbacks have been eliminated. As in previous studies, the water vapor feedback is found to approximately double climate sensitivity, but while its radiative effect is strongly amplified at low latitudes, the resulting response displays about the same degree of polar amplification as the full all-feedbacks experiment. In fact, atmospheric energy transports are found to change in a way that yields the same meridional pattern of response as when the water vapor feedback is turned off. The authors conclude that while the water vapor feedback does not in itself lead to polar amplification by increasing the ratio of high- to low-latitude warming, it does double climate sensitivity both at low and high latitudes. A polar amplification induced by other feedbacks in the system, such as the Planck and lapse rate feedbacks here, is thus strengthened in the sense of increasing the difference in high- and low-latitude warming.

Data Fusion of Total Solar Irradiance Composite Time Series Using 40 years of Satellite Measurements: First Results 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Montillet ◽  
Wolfgang Finsterle ◽  
Werner Schmutz ◽  
Margit Haberreiter ◽  
Rok Sikonja
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Fusion ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
The Earth ◽  
First Results ◽  
The Difference

<p><span>Since the late 70’s, successive satellite missions have been monitoring the sun’s activity, recording total solar irradiance observations. These measurements are important to estimate the Earth’s energy imbalance, </span><span>i.e. the difference of energy absorbed and emitted by our planet. Climate modelers need the solar forcing time series in their models in order to study the influence of the Sun on the Earth’s climate. With this amount of TSI data, solar irradiance reconstruction models  can be better validated which can also improve studies looking at past climate reconstructions (e.g., Maunder minimum). V</span><span>arious algorithms have been proposed in the last decade to merge the various TSI measurements over the 40 years of recording period. We have developed a new statistical algorithm based on data fusion.  The stochastic noise processes of the measurements are modeled via a dual kernel including white and coloured noise.  We show our first results and compare it with previous releases (PMOD,ACRIM, ... ). </span></p>

Drivers of (non-)linear Eocene surface warming in the DeepMIP ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Steinig ◽  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Ran Feng ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Mean

<p>The early Eocene greenhouse represents the warmest interval of the Cenozoic and therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how the climate system operates under elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels similar to those projected for the end of the 21st century. Early Eocene geological records indicate a large increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to present day (by ~14°C) and a greatly reduced meridional temperature gradient (by ~30% in SST). However, reproducing these large-scale climate features at reasonable CO<sub>2</sub> levels still poses a challenge for current climate models. Recent modelling studies indicate an important role for shortwave (SW) cloud feedbacks to drive increases in climate sensitivity with global warming, which helps to close the gap between simulated and reconstructed Eocene global warmth and temperature gradient. Nevertheless, the presence of such state-dependent feedbacks and their relative strengths in other models remain unclear.</p><p>In this study, we perform a systematic investigation of the simulated surface warming and the underlying mechanisms in the recently published DeepMIP ensemble. The DeepMIP early Eocene simulations use identical paleogeographic boundary conditions and include six models with suitable output: CESM1.2_CAM5, GFDL_CM2.1, HadCM3B_M2.1aN, IPSLCM5A2, MIROC4m and NorESM1_F. We advance previous energy balance analysis by applying the approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique to quantify the individual contributions of surface albedo, cloud and non-cloud atmospheric changes to the simulated Eocene top-of-the-atmosphere SW flux anomalies. We further compare the strength of these planetary albedo feedbacks to changes in the longwave atmospheric emissivity and meridional heat transport in the warm Eocene climate. Particular focus lies in the sensitivity of the feedback strengths to increasing global mean temperatures in experiments at a range of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations between x1 to x9 preindustrial levels.</p><p>Preliminary results indicate that all models that provide data for at least 3 different CO<sub>2</sub> levels show an increase of the equilibrium climate sensitivity at higher global mean temperatures. This is associated with an increase of the overall strength of the positive SW cloud feedback with warming in those models. This nonlinear behavior seems to be related to both a reduction and optical thinning of low-level clouds, albeit with intermodel differences in the relative importance of the two mechanisms. We further show that our new APRP results can differ significantly from previous estimates based on cloud radiative forcing alone, especially in high-latitude areas with large surface albedo changes. We also find large intermodel variability and state-dependence in meridional heat transport modulated by changes in the atmospheric latent heat transport. Ongoing work focuses on the spatial patterns of the climate feedbacks and the implications for the simulated meridional temperature gradients.</p>

scholarly journals Model-dependence of the CO<sub>2</sub> threshold for melting the hard Snowball Earth

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Hu ◽  
J. Yang ◽  
F. Ding ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Snowball Earth ◽  
Pressure Broadening ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Induced Absorption ◽  
Cloud Forcing ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Convective Model

Abstract. One of the critical issues of the Snowball Earth hypothesis is the CO2 threshold for triggering the deglaciation. Using Community Atmospheric Model version 3.0 (CAM3), we study the problem for the CO2 threshold. Our simulations show large differences from previous results (e.g. Pierrehumbert, 2004, 2005; Le Hir et al., 2007). At 0.2 bars of CO2, the January maximum near-surface temperature is about 268 K, about 13 K higher than that in Pierrehumbert (2004, 2005), but lower than the value of 270 K for 0.1 bar of CO2 in Le Hir et al. (2007). It is found that the difference of simulation results is mainly due to model sensitivity of greenhouse effect and longwave cloud forcing to increasing CO2. At 0.2 bars of CO2, CAM3 yields 117 Wm−2 of clear-sky greenhouse effect and 32 Wm−2 of longwave cloud forcing, versus only about 77 Wm−2 and 10.5 Wm−2 in Pierrehumbert (2004, 2005), respectively. CAM3 has comparable clear-sky greenhouse effect to that in Le Hir et al. (2007), but lower longwave cloud forcing. CAM3 also produces much stronger Hadley cells than that in Pierrehumbert (2005). Effects of pressure broadening and collision-induced absorption are also studied using a radiative-convective model and CAM3. Both effects substantially increase surface temperature and thus lower the CO2 threshold. The radiative-convective model yields a CO2 threshold of about 0.21 bars with surface albedo of 0.663. Without considering the effects of pressure broadening and collision-induced absorption, CAM3 yields an approximate CO2 threshold of about 1.0 bar for surface albedo of about 0.6. However, the threshold is lowered to 0.38 bars as both effects are considered.

scholarly journals Quasi-biennial and quasi-triennial oscillations in the growth rates of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-358
Author(s):  
R. P. KANE
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Linear Increase ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Prominent Peak

The 12-monthly running means of CFC-11 and CFC-12 were examined for 1977-1992. As observed by earlier workers, during 1977-1988, there was a rapid, almost linear increase of these compounds, ~70% in the northern and ~77% in the southern hemisphere. From 1988 up to 1992, growth rates were slower, more so for CFC-11 in the northern hemisphere. Superposed on this pattern were QBO, QTO (Quasi-Biennial and Quasi-Triennial Oscillations). A spectral analysis of the various series indicated the following. The 50 hPa low latitude zonal wind had one prominent QBO peak at 2.58 years and much smaller peaks at 2.00 (QBO) and 5.1 years. The Southern oscillation index represented by (T-D), Tahiti minus Darwin atmospheric pressure, had a prominent peak at 4.1 years and a smaller peak at 2.31 years. CFC-11 had only one significant peak at 3.7 years in the southern hemisphere, roughly similar to the 4.1 year (T-D) peak. CFC-12 had prominent QBO (2.16-2.33 years) in both the hemispheres and a QTO (3.6 years) in the southern hemisphere. For individual locations, CFC-11 showed barely significant QBO in the range (1.95-3.07 years), while CFC 12 showed strong QBO in the range (1.86-2.38 years). The difference in the spectral characteristics of CFC-11 and CFC 12 time series is attributed to differences in their lifetimes (44 and 180 years), source emission rates and transport processes.

Accuracy of Satellite Land Surface Reflectance Determination

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 960-972 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Arino ◽  
G. Dedieu ◽  
P. Y. Deschamps
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Surface Reflectance ◽  
Relative Uncertainty ◽  
Calibration Uncertainty ◽  
Maximum Bias ◽  
Calibration Accuracy ◽  
The Difference

Abstract An accuracy budget of the surface reflectance determination from Meteosat geostationary satellite data is performed. Error analysis allows identification of three main problems: calibration uncertainty of the Meteosat instrument, atmospheric corrections, and surface effects (spectral and directional). Calibration accuracy is 10%, leading to a 10% relative uncertainty on reflectance. Spectral effects of the surface lead to a maximum bias of 0.01 for a vegetated surface as sensed by Meteosat, while directional effects can lead to a bias of 0.035 between two measurements taken at two different sun zenith and azimuth angles at the same view angle over savannas. The maximum error due to the atmosphere is estimated to be of the order of 0.03 in reflectance for a surface reflectance of 0.40 and 0.01 for, a surface reflectance of 0.10. Validation with in situ measurement is within the expected error over savanna. But the difference is still high over the southwest France site of HAPEX-MOBILHY, certainly due to the joint spectral and directional errors. Comparisons with surface albedo maps from literature show the same spatial and spatial evolutions with a better spatial and temporal determination in our results.

scholarly journals Radiation Transfer Calculations and Assessment of Global Warming by CO2

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermann Harde
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Radiation Transfer ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Line Radiation ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Specific Influence

We present detailed line-by-line radiation transfer calculations, which were performed under different atmospheric conditions for the most important greenhouse gases water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone. Particularly cloud effects, surface temperature variations, and humidity changes as well as molecular lineshape effects are investigated to examine their specific influence on some basic climatologic parameters like the radiative forcing, the long wave absorptivity, and back-radiation as a function of an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. These calculations are used to assess the CO2 global warming by means of an advanced two-layer climate model and to disclose some larger discrepancies in calculating the climate sensitivity. Including solar and cloud effects as well as all relevant feedback processes our simulations give an equilibrium climate sensitivity of CS = 0.7°C (temperature increase at doubled CO2) and a solar sensitivity of SS = 0.17°C (at 0.1% increase of the total solar irradiance). Then CO2 contributes 40% and the Sun 60% to global warming over the last century.

Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6312-6335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Tatsuo Suzuki ◽  
Ryouta O’ishi ◽  
Yoshiki Komuro ◽  
Shingo Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Equatorial Ocean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

Abstract A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5. A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between the two MIROC3.2 versions, indicating a greater effect of updating parameterization schemes on the model climate than increasing the model resolution. The mean cloud property obtained from the sophisticated prognostic schemes in MIROC5 shows good agreement with satellite measurements. MIROC5 reveals an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 K, which is lower than that in MIROC3.2 by 1 K. This is probably due to the negative feedback of low clouds to the increasing concentration of CO2, which is opposite to that in MIROC3.2.

scholarly journals Nudging the Arctic Ocean to Quantify Sea Ice Feedbacks

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 2381-2395
Author(s):  
Evelien Dekker ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Camiel Severijns
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

AbstractWith Arctic summer sea ice potentially disappearing halfway through this century, the surface albedo and insulating effects of Arctic sea ice will decrease considerably. The ongoing Arctic sea ice retreat also affects the strength of the Planck, lapse rate, cloud, and surface albedo feedbacks together with changes in the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, but their combined effect on climate sensitivity has not been quantified. This study presents an estimate of all Arctic sea ice related climate feedbacks combined. We use a new method to keep Arctic sea ice at its present-day (PD) distribution under a changing climate in a 50-yr CO2 doubling simulation, using a fully coupled global climate model (EC-Earth, version 2.3). We nudge the Arctic Ocean to the (monthly dependent) year 2000 mean temperature and minimum salinity fields on a mask representing PD sea ice cover. We are able to preserve about 95% of the PD mean March and 77% of the September PD Arctic sea ice extent by applying this method. Using simulations with and without nudging, we estimate the climate response associated with Arctic sea ice changes. The Arctic sea ice feedback globally equals 0.28 ± 0.15 W m−2 K−1. The total sea ice feedback thus amplifies the climate response for a doubling of CO2, in line with earlier findings. Our estimate of the Arctic sea ice feedback agrees reasonably well with earlier CMIP5 global climate feedback estimates and shows that the Arctic sea ice exerts a considerable effect on the Arctic and global climate sensitivity.

scholarly journals A case-study of the low-latitude thermosphere during geomagnetic storms and its new representation by improved MSIS model

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 1513-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Pant ◽  
R. Sridharan
Keyword(s):  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Simple Relation ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The thermospheric temperatures from low and equatorial latitudes during geomagnetically disturbed periods are known to exhibit significant deviations from atmospheric model predictions. Also, the oscillatory features seen in the observations are not accounted for by the models. A simple relation has been established between the difference in the observed and model-predicted temperatures and the rate of change of Dst, the magnetic index representing the ring current variabilities. Using this relation, a correction term has been added to the latest MSIS-90 model algorithm and almost all the observed variations in neutral temperatures spectroscopically determined from Mt.Abu, a low-latitude station in India, are successfully reproduced for two moderate geomagnetic storms.Key words. Low-latitude thermosphere · MSIS model · Stormtime model predictions · FP spectroscopic temperatures  

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