scholarly journals Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4677-4691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gareth S. Jones ◽  
John J. Kennedy
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Detection Analysis ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The impact of including comprehensive estimates of observational uncertainties on a detection and attribution analysis of twentieth-century near-surface temperature variations is investigated. The error model of HadCRUT4, a dataset of land near-surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures, provides estimates of measurement, sampling, and bias adjustment uncertainties. These uncertainties are incorporated into an optimal detection analysis that regresses simulated large-scale temporal and spatial variations in near-surface temperatures, driven by well-mixed greenhouse gas variations and other anthropogenic and natural factors, against observed changes. The inclusion of bias adjustment uncertainties increases the variance of the regression scaling factors and the range of attributed warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases by less than 20%. Including estimates of measurement and sampling errors has a much smaller impact on the results. The range of attributable greenhouse gas warming is larger across analyses exploring dataset structural uncertainty. The impact of observational uncertainties on the detection analysis is found to be small compared to other sources of uncertainty, such as model variability and methodological choices, but it cannot be ruled out that on different spatial and temporal scales this source of uncertainty may be more important. The results support previous conclusions that there is a dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence on twentieth-century near-surface temperature increases.

scholarly journals Impacts of the 1900–74 Increase in Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from North America and Europe on Eurasian Summer Climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8381-8399 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Undorf ◽  
M. A. Bollasina ◽  
G. C. Hegerl
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
The Impact

The impact of North American and European (NAEU) anthropogenic aerosol emissions on Eurasian summer climate during the twentieth century is studied using historical single- and all-forcing (including anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and natural forcings) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Intermodel agreement on significant linear trends during a period of increasing NAEU sulfate emissions (1900–74) reveals robust features of NAEU aerosol impact, supported by opposite changes during the subsequent period of decreasing emissions. Regionally, these include a large-scale cooling and associated anticyclonic circulation, as well as a narrowing of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Eurasian midlatitudes. Remotely, NAEU aerosols induce a drying over the western African and northern Indian monsoon regions and a strengthening and southward shift of the subtropical jet consistent with the pattern of temperature change. Over Europe, the temporal variations of observed temperature, pressure, and DTR tend to agree better with simulations that include aerosols. Throughout the twentieth century, aerosols are estimated to explain more than a third of the simulated interdecadal forced variability of European near-surface temperature and more than half between 1940 and 1970. These results highlight the substantial aerosol impact on Eurasian climate, already identifiable in the first half of the twentieth century. This may be relevant for understanding future patterns of change related to further emission reductions.

The Western Tibetan Vortex as an emergent feature of near-surface temperature variations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remco de Kok ◽  
Walter Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Net Radiation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Emergent Feature ◽  
Main Driver

<p>Glaciers are growing in a part of High Mountain Asia (HMA), contrary to the demise of glaciers worldwide. A proposed explanation for this behaviour is the decreasing strength of the "Western Tibetan Vortex" (WTV), a circular motion of air in the troposphere around northwestern High Mountain Asia, which is proposed to drive near-surface temperatures. Here, we show that the WTV is the change of wind field resulting from changes in near-surface temperature, and that it is not unique to northwestern HMA, but is generally applicable to large parts of the globe. Instead, we argue that net radiation is likely the main driver of near-surface temperatures in Western HMA in summer and autumn, and that the WTV is the response of the atmosphere to changes in temperature. The decreasing strength of the WTV, as seen during summer in the 20th century, is thus likely the result of changing net radiation, and not the main driver of cooling itself. We do argue that the WTV is a useful concept to understand large scale climate variability in the region, and that such an approach could yield important insights in other mid-latitude regions as well.</p>

Observational Constraints on Past Attributable Warming and Predictions of Future Global Warming

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (13) ◽  
pp. 3055-3069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Stott ◽  
John F. B. Mitchell ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Cooling Effects ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much (or too little) greenhouse warming by too much (or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater (at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr−1 increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century−1 (5–95 percentiles).

scholarly journals Parameterization of Urban Sensible Heat Flux from Remotely Sensed Surface Temperature: Effects of Surface Structure

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinxin Yang ◽  
Massimo Menenti ◽  
E. Scott Krayenhoff ◽  
Zhifeng Wu ◽  
Qian Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Effective Resistance ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Wall Surface ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Flux Parameterization ◽  
The Impact

Sensible heat exchange has important consequences for urban meteorology and related applications. Directional radiometric surface temperatures of urban canopies observed by remote sensing platforms have the potential to inform estimations of urban sensible heat flux. An imaging radiometer viewing the surface from nadir cannot capture the complete urban surface temperature, which is defined as the mean surface temperature over all urban facets in three dimensions, which includes building wall surface temperatures and requires an estimation of urban sensible heat flux. In this study, a numerical microclimate model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), was used to model sensible heat flux as well as radiometric and complete surface temperatures. Model data were applied to parameterize an effective resistance for the calculation of urban sensible heat flux from the radiometric (nadir view) surface temperature. The results showed that sensible heat flux was overestimated during daytime when the radiometric surface temperature was used without the effective resistance that accounts for the impact of wall surface temperature on heat flux. Parameterization of this additional resistance enabled reasonably accurate estimates of urban sensible heat flux from the radiometric surface temperature.

scholarly journals Response of Near-Surface Meteorological Conditions to Advection under Impact of the Green Roof

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 759
Author(s):  
Haochen Tan ◽  
Pallav Ray ◽  
Mukul Tewari ◽  
James Brownlee ◽  
Ajaya Ravindran
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Green Roof ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Due to rapid urbanization, the near-surface meteorological conditions over urban areas are greatly modulated. To capture such modulations, sophisticated urban parameterizations with enhanced hydrological processes have been developed. In this study, we use the single-layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to assess the response of near-surface temperature, wind, and moisture to advection under the impact of the green roof. An ensemble of simulations with different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes is conducted in the presence (green roof (GR)) and absence (control (CTL)) of green roof systems. Our results indicate that the near-surface temperature is found to be driven primarily by the surface heat flux with a minor influence from the zonal advection of temperature. The momentum budget analysis shows that both zonal and meridional momentum advection during the evening and early nighttime plays an important role in modulating winds over urban areas. The near-surface humidity remains nearly unchanged in GR compared to CTL, although the physical processes that determine the changes in humidity were different, in particular during the evening when the GR tends to have less moisture advection due to the reduced temperature gradient between the urban areas and the surroundings. Implications of our results are discussed.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Surface Temperature in Central-Italy Lakes Using Satellite Data Time-Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Davide De Santis ◽  
Fabio Del Frate ◽  
Giovanni Schiavon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Impact

Evaluation of the impact of climate change on water bodies has been one of the most discussed open issues of recent years. The exploitation of satellite data for the monitoring of water surface temperatures, combined with ground measurements where available, has already been shown in several previous studies, but these studies mainly focused on large lakes around the world. In this work the water surface temperature characterization during the last few decades of two small–medium Italian lakes, Lake Bracciano and Lake Martignano, using satellite data is addressed. The study also takes advantage of the last space-borne platforms, such as Sentinel-3. Long time series of clear sky conditions and atmospherically calibrated (using a simplified Planck’s Law-based algorithm) images were processed in order to derive the lakes surface temperature trends from 1984 to 2019. The results show an overall increase in water surface temperatures which is more evident on the smallest and shallowest of the two test sites. In particular, it was observed that, since the year 2000, the surface temperature of both lakes has risen by about 0.106 °C/year on average, which doubles the rate that can be retrieved by considering the whole period 1984–2019 (0.053 °C/year on average).

scholarly journals MODELING THE IMPACT OF SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS ON THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATE

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W18 ◽  
pp. 395-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. Firozjaei ◽  
S. Fathololuomi ◽  
S. K. Alavipanah ◽  
M. Kiavarz ◽  
A. Vaezi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Topographic Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Modeling of Near-Surface Temperature Lapse Rate (NSTLR) is very important in various environmental applications. The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is influenced by many properties and conditions including surface biophysical and topographic characteristics. Some researches have considered the LST - Digital Elevation Model (DEM) feature space to model NSTLR. However, the influence of detailed surface characteristics is rare. This study investigated the impact of surface characteristics on the LST-DEM feature space for NSTLR modeling. A set of remote sensing data including Landsat 8 images, MODIS products, and surface features including DEM and land use of the Balikhli-Chay on 01/07/2018, 18/08/2018 and 03/09/2018 were collected and used in this study. First, Split Window (SW) algorithm was used to estimate LST, and spectral indices were employed to model surface biophysical characteristics. Owing to the impact of surface biophysical and topographic characteristics on the LST-DEM feature space, the NSTLR was calculated for different classes of surface biophysical characteristics, land use, and solar local incident angle. The modeled NSTLR values based on the LST-DEM feature space on 01/07/2018, 18/08/2018 and 03/09/2018 were 8.5, 1.5 and 2.4 °C Km−1; respectively. The NSTLR in different classes of surface biophysical characteristics, land use type and topographical parameters were variable between 0.5 to 14 °C Km−1. This clearly showed the dependence of NSTLR on topographic and biophysical conditions. This provides a new way of calculating surface characteristic specific NSTLR.

scholarly journals Cultures of light: Electric light in the United States, 1890s-1950s

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Margaret Maile Petty
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cultural Beliefs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Light Industry ◽  
Electric Light ◽  
American Society ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

<p>Cultures of Light is set within a period that stretches from the late nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century in the United States, an era in which nearly every aspect of American life was impacted to a lesser or greater degree by the introduction, distribution and integration of electric power and light. By no means attempting to comprehensively examine the impact and effects of this expansive transformation, this thesis has a narrow but meaningful target, defined by key intersections of electric lighting and American culture. Primarily concerned with the investigation of culturally bound ideas and practices as mediated through electric light and its applications, my thesis is focused on particular instances of this interplay. These include its role in supporting nationalizing narratives and agendas through large-scale demonstrations at world’s fairs and exhibitions, in the search for and expression of modernism and its variations in the United States. Similarly electricity and electric light throughout the better part of the twentieth century was scaled to the level of the individual through a number of mechanisms and narratives. Most prominently the electric light industry employed gendered discourses, practices and beliefs in their efforts to grow the market, calling upon the assistance of a host of cultural influencers, from movie stars to architects to interior designers, instigating a renegotiation of established approaches to the design of architecture and the visual environment. Connecting common themes and persistent concerns across these seemingly disparate subject areas through the examination of cultural beliefs, practices, rituals and traditions, Cultures of Light seeks to illustrate the deep and lasting significance of electric light within American society in the twentieth century.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Large-Scale Orography on Northern Hemisphere Winter Synoptic Temperature Variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. 5799-5814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Lutsko ◽  
Jane Wilson Baldwin ◽  
Timothy W. Cronin
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North American ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of large-scale orography on wintertime near-surface (850 hPa) temperature variability on daily and synoptic time scales (from days to weeks) in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated. Using a combination of theory, idealized modeling work, and simulations with a comprehensive climate model, it is shown that large-scale orography reduces upstream temperature gradients, in turn reducing upstream temperature variability, and enhances downstream temperature gradients, enhancing downstream temperature variability. Hence, the presence of the Rockies on the western edge of the North American continent increases temperature gradients over North America and, consequently, increases North American temperature variability. By contrast, the presence of the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas on the eastern edge of the Eurasian continent damps temperature variability over most of Eurasia. However, Tibet and the Himalayas also interfere with the downstream development of storms in the North Pacific storm track, and thus damp temperature variability over North America, by approximately as much as the Rockies enhance it. Large-scale orography is also shown to impact the skewness of downstream temperature distributions, as temperatures to the north of the enhanced temperature gradients are more positively skewed while temperatures to the south are more negatively skewed. This effect is most clearly seen in the northwest Pacific, off the east coast of Japan.

The Effect of Thermal Barrier Coating Surface Temperature on the Adhesion Behavior of CMAS Deposits

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Clark ◽  
Nicholas Plewacki ◽  
Pritheesh Gnanaselvam ◽  
Jeffrey P. Bons ◽  
Vaishak Viswanathan
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
High Pressure ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Flow ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Thermal Barrier ◽  
Back Side ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Side Flow

Abstract The interaction of thermal barrier coating’s surface temperature with CMAS (calcium magnesium aluminosilicate) like deposits in gas turbine hot flowpath hardware is investigated. Small Hastelloy X coupons were coated in TBC using the air plasma spray (APS) method and then subjected to a thermal gradient via back-side impingement cooling and front-side impingement heating using the High Temperature Deposition Facility (HTDF) at The Ohio State University (OSU). A 1-D heat transfer model was used to estimate TBC surface temperatures and correlate them to intensity values taken from infrared (IR) images of the TBC surface. TBC frontside surface temperatures were varied by changing back-side mass flow (kept at a constant temperature), while maintaining a constant hot-side gas temperature and jet velocity representative of modern commercial turbofan high-pressure turbine (HPT) inlet conditions (approximately 1600K and 200 m/s, or Mach 0.25). In this study, Arizona Road Dust (ARD) was utilized to mimic the behavior of CMAS attack on TBCs. To identify the minimum temperature at which particles adhere, the back-side cooling mass flow was set to the maximum amount allowed by the test setup, and trace amounts of 0–10 μm ARD particles were injected into the hot-side flow to impinge on the TBC surface. The TBC surface temperature was increased through coolant reduction until noticeable deposits formed, as evaluated through an IR camera. Accelerated deposition tests were then performed where approximately 1 gram of ARD was injected into the hot side flow while the TBC surface temperature was held at various points above the minimum observed deposition temperature. Surface deposition on the TBC coupons was evaluated using an infrared camera and a backside thermocouple. Coupon cross sections were also evaluated under a scanning electron microscope for any potential CMAS ingress into the TBC. Experimental results of the impact of surface temperature on CMAS deposition and deposit evolution and morphology are presented. In addition, an Eulerian-Lagrangian solver was used to model the hot-side impinging jet with particles at four TBC surface temperatures and deposition was predicted using the OSU Deposition model. Comparisons to experimental results highlight the need for more sophisticated modeling of deposit development through conjugate heat transfer and mesh morphing of the target surface. These results can be used to improve physics-based deposition models by providing valuable data relative to CMAS deposition characteristics on TBC surfaces, which modern commercial turbofan high pressure turbines use almost exclusively.

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