scholarly journals Contrasting Pre-Mei-Yu and Mei-Yu Extreme Precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley: Influencing Systems and Precipitation Mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1961-1980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaokang Wang ◽  
Xiquan Dong ◽  
Yi Deng ◽  
Chunguang Cui ◽  
Rong Wan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Convective Instability ◽  
Thermodynamic Characteristics ◽  
Western Pacific Subtropical High ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Beibu Gulf ◽  
Moist Air ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Cyclonic Vortex ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The mei-yu season over the Yangtze–Huai Rivers basin, typically occurring from mid-June to mid-July, is one of three heavy-rainfall periods over China and can contribute 50% of the annual precipitation. In this study, the first and second heaviest daily precipitation events at the Wuhan station have been selected to represent typical mei-yu and pre-mei-yu precipitation events where the differences in the atmospheric thermodynamic characteristics, precipitation nature, influencing systems, and mechanisms are investigated. During the mei-yu case, moist air mainly came from the South China Sea. Precipitation occurred south of the mei-yu front where abundant moisture and favorable thermodynamic conditions were present. The main influencing systems include a stable blocking pattern and strong and stable western Pacific subtropical high in the midtroposphere, and a small yet intense mesoscale cyclonic vortex in the low troposphere. Rainfall in Wuhan was continuous, caused by a well-organized convective line. A heavy rainband was located along the narrow band between the elongated upper-level jet (ULJ) and the low-level jet (LLJ) where the symmetric instability was found in the midtroposphere near Wuhan. Quite differently, for the pre-mei-yu precipitation case, moist air primarily came from the Beibu Gulf and the Bay of Bengal. Precipitation happened in the low-level convective instability region, where a short-wave trough in the midtroposphere and a mesoscale cyclonic vortex in the low-troposphere were found. Precipitation in Wuhan showed multiple peaks associated with independent meso-β-scale convective systems. A rainstorm occurred at the exit of the LLJ and the right entrance of the ULJ, where convective instability exited in the mid- to low troposphere.

scholarly journals The Integral Role of a Diabatic Rossby Vortex in a Heavy Snowfall Event

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 1878-1897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Moore ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery ◽  
Huw C. Davies
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Surface Cyclone ◽  
Integral Role ◽  
Surface Disturbance ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Inversion Techniques

Abstract On 24–25 February 2005, a significant East Coast cyclone deposited from 4 to nearly 12 in. (∼10–30 cm) of snow on parts of the northeastern United States. The heaviest snowfall and most rapid deepening of the cyclone coincided with the favorable positioning of an upper-level, short-wave trough immediately upstream of a preexisting surface cyclone. The surface cyclone in question formed approximately 15 h before the heaviest snowfall along a coastal front in a region of frontogenesis and heavy precipitation. The incipient surface cyclone subsequently intensified as it moved to the northeast, consistently generating the strongest convection to the east-northeast of the low-level circulation center. The use of potential vorticity (PV) inversion techniques and a suite of mesoscale model simulations illustrates that the early intensification of the incipient surface cyclone was primarily driven by diabatic effects and was not critically dependent on the upper-level wave. These facts, taken in conjunction with the observed structure, energetics, and Lagrangian evolution of the incipient surface disturbance, identify it as a diabatic Rossby vortex (DRV). The antecedent surface vorticity spinup associated with the DRV phase of development is found to be integral to the subsequent rapid growth. The qualitative similarity with a number of observed cases of explosive cyclogenesis leaves open the possibility that a DRV-like feature comprises the preexisting positive low-level PV anomaly in a number of cyclogenetic events that exhibit a two-stage evolution.

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relations of Distinctive Stratus Clouds on the Lee Side of the Tibetan Plateau in the Cold Season

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8378-8391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Rucong Yu ◽  
Jian Li ◽  
Weihua Yuan ◽  
Minghua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Moist Air ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Stratus Clouds

Abstract Given the large discrepancies that exist in climate models for shortwave cloud forcing over eastern China (EC), the dynamic (vertical motion and horizontal circulation) and thermodynamic (stability) relations of stratus clouds and the associated cloud radiative forcing in the cold season are examined. Unlike the stratus clouds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean (as a representative of marine boundary stratus), where thermodynamic forcing plays a primary role, the stratus clouds over EC are affected by both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. The Tibetan Plateau (TP)-forced low-level large-scale lifting and high stability over EC favor the accumulation of abundant saturated moist air, which contributes to the formation of stratus clouds. The TP slows down the westerly overflow through a frictional effect, resulting in midlevel divergence, and forces the low-level surrounding flows, resulting in convergence. Both midlevel divergence and low-level convergence sustain a rising motion and vertical water vapor transport over EC. The surface cold air is advected from the Siberian high by the surrounding northerly flow, causing low-level cooling. The cooling effect is enhanced by the blocking of the YunGui Plateau. The southwesterly wind carrying warm, moist air from the east Bay of Bengal is uplifted by the HengDuan Mountains via topographical forcing; the midtropospheric westerly flow further advects the warm air downstream of the TP, moistening and warming the middle troposphere on the lee side of the TP. The low-level cooling and midlevel warming together increase the stability. The favorable dynamic and thermodynamic large-scale environment allows for the formation of stratus clouds over EC during the cold season.

scholarly journals Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Mesoscale Forecasts of Dryline Convection Initiation

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (11) ◽  
pp. 4161-4182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron J. Hill ◽  
Christopher C. Weiss ◽  
Brian C. Ancell
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Dynamic Features ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Antecedent Precipitation ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract Two cases of dryline convection initiation (CI) over north Texas have been simulated (3 April 2012 and 15 May 2013) from a 50-member WRF-DART ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) ensemble. In this study, ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is applied to a convective forecast metric, maximum composite reflectivity (referred to as the response function), as a simple proxy for CI to analyze dynamic mesoscale sensitivities at the surface and aloft. Analysis reveals positional and magnitude sensitivities related to the strength and placement of important dynamic features. Convection initiation is sensitive to the evolving temperature and dewpoint fields upstream of the forecast response region in the near-CI time frame (0–12 h), prior to initiation. The sensitivity to thermodynamics is also manifest in the magnitude of dewpoint gradients along the dryline that triggers the convection. ESA additionally highlights the importance of antecedent precipitation and cold pool generation that modifies the pre-CI environment. Aloft, sensitivity of CI to a weak short-wave trough and capping inversion-level temperature is coherent, consistent, and traceable through the entire forecast period. Notwithstanding the (often) non-Gaussian distribution of ensemble member forecasts of convection, which violate the underpinnings of ESA theory, ESA is demonstrated to sufficiently identify regions that influence dryline CI. These results indicate an application of ESA for severe storm forecasting at operational centers and forecast offices as well as other mesoscale forecasting applications.

scholarly journals Ensemble Sensitivity Tools for Assessing Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Predictability

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1133-1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minghua Zheng ◽  
Edmund K. M. Chang ◽  
Brian A. Colle
Keyword(s):  
Wave Packet ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Wave Trough

Abstract This paper applies ensemble sensitivity analysis to a U.S. East Coast snowstorm on 26–28 December 2010 in a way that may be beneficial for an operational forecaster to better understand the forecast uncertainties. Sensitivity using the principal components of the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) on the 50-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble identifies the sensitive regions and weather systems at earlier times associated with the cyclone intensity and track uncertainty separately. The 5.5-day forecast cyclone intensity uncertainty in the ECMWF ensemble is associated with trough and ridge systems over the northeastern Pacific and central United States, respectively, while the track uncertainty is associated with a short-wave trough over the southern Great Plains. Sensitivity based on the ensemble mean sea level pressure difference between two run cycles also suggests that the track's shift between the two cycles is linked with the initial errors in the short-wave trough over the southern Great Plains. The sensitivity approach is run forward in time using forward ensemble regression based on short-range forecast errors, which further confirms that the short-term error over the southern plains trough was associated with the shift in cyclone position between the two forecast cycles. A coherent Rossby wave packet originated from the central North Pacific 6 days before this snowstorm event. The sensitivity signals behave like a wave packet and exhibit the same group velocity of ~29° longitude per day, indicating that Rossby wave packets may have also amplified uncertainty in both the cyclone amplitude and track forecast.

The Operation of Cool Edit Pro in Corpus-Based Spoken Language

2013 ◽  
Vol 694-697 ◽  
pp. 2383-2387
Author(s):  
Jie Chen ◽  
Jing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sound Wave ◽  
Native Speaker ◽  
Spoken Language ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Wave Crest ◽  
Sharp Wave ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Autonomic Learning ◽  
Language Corpus

Corpus refers to the database of language materials. Cool Edit Pro is a media edit software. This paper explores how to construct spoken language corpus, how to use cool edit pro 2 to make sound wave contrast and give the experimenters an intuitive observation from their own speech waveforms. The key is to offer the obvious waveforms contrast among the sampling waveform of the native speaker, the original and unmodified one of the experimenter and the new waveform of the experimenter after modifications and teachers instructions, which makes the oral autonomic learning more possible and scientific. From long wave or short wave, wave trough or wave crest, smooth wave or sharp wave, the experimenters deviations can be easily identified from the standard during the autonomic practices and efficiently make corrections. Additionally, experimenter also can observe the improvements frequently, which means this experiment more instructive.

The Global Atmospheric Circulation in Moist Isentropic Coordinates

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 3077-3093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Pauluis ◽  
Arnaud Czaja ◽  
Robert Korty
Keyword(s):  
Mass Transport ◽  
Total Mass ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Equivalent Potential Temperature ◽  
Moist Air ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Equivalent Potential ◽  
Entropy Transport ◽  
Mean Circulation ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Differential heating of the earth’s atmosphere drives a global circulation that transports energy from the tropical regions to higher latitudes. Because of the turbulent nature of the flow, any description of a “mean circulation” or “mean parcel trajectories” is tied to the specific averaging method and coordinate system. In this paper, the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data spanning 1970–2004 are used to compare the mean circulation obtained by averaging the flow on surfaces of constant liquid water potential temperature, or dry isentropes, and on surfaces of constant equivalent potential temperature, or moist isentropes. While the two circulations are qualitatively similar, they differ in intensity. In the tropics, the total mass transport on dry isentropes is larger than the circulation on moist isentropes. In contrast, in midlatitudes, the total mass transport on moist isentropes is between 1.5 and 3 times larger than the mass transport on dry isentropes. It is shown here that the differences between the two circulations can be explained by the atmospheric transport of water vapor. In particular, the enhanced mass transport on moist isentropes corresponds to a poleward flow of warm moist air near the earth’s surface in midlatitudes. This low-level poleward flow does not appear in the zonally averaged circulation on dry isentropes, as it is hidden by the presence of a larger equatorward flow of drier air at same potential temperature. However, as the equivalent potential temperature in this low-level poleward flow is close to the potential temperature of the air near the tropopause, it is included in the total circulation on moist isentropes. In the tropics, the situation is reversed: the Hadley circulation transports warm moist air toward the equator, and in the opposite direction to the flow at upper levels, and the circulation on dry isentropes is larger than that on moist isentropes. The relationship between circulation and entropy transport is also analyzed. A gross stratification is defined as the ratio of the entropy transport to the net transport on isentropic surfaces. It is found that in midlatitudes the gross stability for moist entropy is approximately the same as that for dry entropy. The gross stratification in the midlatitude circulation differs from what one would expect for either an overturning circulation or horizontal mixing; rather, it confirms that warm moist subtropical air ascends into the upper troposphere within the storm tracks.

Diagnosing Initial Condition Sensitivity of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008)

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (10) ◽  
pp. 3224-3242 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Komaromi ◽  
Sharanya J. Majumdar ◽  
Eric D. Rappin
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Hurricane Ike ◽  
Control Simulation ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Local Perturbations ◽  
First Case

Abstract The response of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions of two tropical cyclones to perturbations in the initial conditions is investigated. Local perturbations to the vorticity field in the synoptic environment are created in features considered subjectively to be of importance to the track forecast. The rebalanced analysis is then integrated forward and compared with an unperturbed “control” simulation possessing similar errors to those in the corresponding operational model forecasts. In the first case, Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), the premature recurvature in the control simulation is found to be corrected by a variety of initial perturbations; in particular, the weakening of an upper-level low directly to its north, and the weakening of a remote short-wave trough in the midlatitude storm track. It is suggested that one or both of the short waves may have been initialized too strongly. In the second case, the forecasts for Hurricane Ike (2008) initialized 4 days prior to its landfall in Texas were not sensitive to most remote perturbations. The primary corrections to the track of Ike arose from a weakening of a midlevel ridge directly to its north, and the strengthening of a short-wave trough in the midlatitudes. For both storms, the targets selected by the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) were often, but not always, consistent with the most sensitive regions found in this study. Overall, the results can be used to retrospectively diagnose features in which the initial conditions require improvement, in order to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone track.

Evaluation and Comparison of Microphysical Algorithms in ARW-WRF Model Simulations of Atmospheric River Events Affecting the California Coast

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 847-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isidora Jankov ◽  
Jian-Wen Bao ◽  
Paul J. Neiman ◽  
Paul J. Schultz ◽  
Huiling Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Surface Precipitation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
Microphysical Parameterization ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Numerical prediction of precipitation associated with five cool-season atmospheric river events in northern California was analyzed and compared to observations. The model simulations were performed by using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) with four different microphysical parameterizations. This was done as a part of the 2005–06 field phase of the Hydrometeorological Test Bed project, for which special profilers, soundings, and surface observations were implemented. Using these unique datasets, the meteorology of atmospheric river events was described in terms of dynamical processes and the microphysical structure of the cloud systems that produced most of the surface precipitation. Events were categorized as “bright band” (BB) or “nonbright band” (NBB), the differences being the presence of significant amounts of ice aloft (or lack thereof) and a signature of higher reflectivity collocated with the melting layer produced by frozen precipitating particles descending through the 0°C isotherm. The model was reasonably successful at predicting the timing of surface fronts, the development and evolution of low-level jets associated with latent heating processes and terrain interaction, and wind flow signatures consistent with deep-layer thermal advection. However, the model showed the tendency to overestimate the duration and intensity of the impinging low-level winds. In general, all model configurations overestimated precipitation, especially in the case of BB events. Nonetheless, large differences in precipitation distribution and cloud structure among model runs using various microphysical parameterization schemes were noted.

scholarly journals An ensemble study of HyMeX IOP6 and IOP7a: sensitivity to physical and initial and boundary condition uncertainties

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1071-1084 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hally ◽  
E. Richard ◽  
V. Ducrocq
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Model Skill ◽  
Intensive Observation ◽  
High Level ◽  
Ctrl Simulation ◽  
Level Of Agreement ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Observation Period

Abstract. The first Special Observation Period of the HyMeX campaign took place in the Mediterranean between September and November 2012 with the aim of better understanding the mechanisms which lead to heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the region during the autumn months. Two such events, referred to as Intensive Observation Period 6 (IOP6) and Intensive Observation Period 7a (IOP7a), occurred respectively on 24 and 26 September over south-eastern France. IOP6 was characterised by moderate to weak low-level flow which led to heavy and concentrated convective rainfall over the plains near the coast, while IOP7a had strong low-level flow and consisted of a convective line over the mountainous regions further north and a band of stratiform rainfall further east. Firstly, an ensemble was constructed for each IOP using analyses from the AROME, AROME-WMED, ARPEGE and ECMWF operational models as initial (IC) and boundary (BC) conditions for the research model Meso-NH at a resolution of 2.5 km. A high level of model skill was seen for IOP7a, with a lower level of agreement with the observations for IOP6. Using the most accurate member of this ensemble as a CTRL simulation, three further ensembles were constructed in order to study uncertainties related to cloud physics and surface turbulence parameterisations. Perturbations were introduced by perturbing the time tendencies of the warm and cold microphysical and turbulence processes. An ensemble where all three sources of uncertainty were perturbed gave the greatest degree of dispersion in the surface rainfall for both IOPs. Comparing the level of dispersion to that of the ICBC ensemble demonstrated that when model skill is low (high) and low-level flow is weak to moderate (strong), the level of dispersion of the ICBC and physical perturbation ensembles is (is not) comparable. The level of sensitivity to these perturbations is thus concluded to be case dependent.

scholarly journals Mesoscale processes for super heavy rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) over Southern Taiwan

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 13495-13517 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-Y. Lin ◽  
H.-m. Hsu ◽  
Y.-F. Sheng ◽  
C.-H. Kuo ◽  
Y.-A. Liou
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Moist Air ◽  
Typhoon Morakot ◽  
The Future ◽  
Southern Taiwan ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Mesoscale Processes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Within 100 h, a record-breaking rainfall, 2855 mm, was brought to Taiwan by Typhoon Morakot in August, 2009 resulting in devastating landslides and casualties. Analyses and simulations show that under favorable large-scale situations, this unprecedented precipitation was caused first by the convergence of the southerly component of the pre-existing strong southwesterly monsoonal flow and the northerly component of the typhoon circulation. Then the westerly component of southwesterly flow pushed the highly moist air eastward against the Central Mountain Range, and forced it to lift in the preferred area. The mesoscale processes in two stages were responsible for the unprecedented heavy rainfall total that accompanied this typhoon. Thus, understanding the dynamical interactions between the typhoon's circulation and monsoonal flow at different scales should enhance the forecasting capability in precipitation events brought by similar typhoons in the future.

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