Validation of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) for Waldenstrom's Macroglobulinemia (WM) and the Importance of Serum Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH).

Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (22) ◽  
pp. 2845-2845
Author(s):  
Meletios A. Dimopoulos ◽  
Marie-Christine Kyrtsonis ◽  
Evdoxia Hadjiharissi ◽  
Argiris Symeonidis ◽  
Eurydiki Michalis ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 2845 Poster Board II-821 Recently, the IPSS has been proposed as a staging system for patients with WM who require treatment. This system is based on five adverse covariates: age >65 years, hemoglobin '11.5 g/dL, platelet count '100×109/L, beta2-microglobulin >3 mg/L and serum monoclonal protein concentration >7 g/dL. Low risk is defined by the presence of ' 1 adverse characteristic and age '65 years, intermediate risk by the presence of 2 adverse characteristics or only age >65 years and high risk by the presence of >2 adverse characteristics. The aim of our analysis was to independently validate the significance of IPSS not only for overall survival (OS) but also for cause-specific survival (CSS) (i.e deaths unrelated to WM or to complications of treatment are censored). Furthermore, we wanted to assess whether elevated serum LDH may add to the strength of IPSS. From the data base of the Greek Myeloma Study Group, we identified 335 patients with clearly defined criteria for diagnosis and for initiation of treatment who were treated over the last 20 years. Main primary therapies included alkylating agents (43%), CHOP (3%), nucleoside analogues (3%) and rituximab either alone (3%) or in combination with conventional chemotherapy (44%). Before the initiation of treatment the median age of patients was 68 years (range 28 to 89 years). Fifty-nine percent of patients were >65 years, while 75% of patients had hemoglobin levels of <11.5 g/dL, 57% had beta2-microglobulin of >3 mg/L, 33% had lymphadenopathy, 32% splenomegaly, 23% presence of B-symptoms, 12% platelet count of <100×109/L and 6% had serum monoclonal protein concentration of >7 g/dL. Among 152 patients who had died by the time of this analysis, 33 patients (22%) had died due to causes not related to WM, to disease transformation, to myelodysplasia or to complications of treatment. Most frequent causes were second primary solid tumors, celebrovascular accidents, coronary artery disease and congestive heart failure. For the whole group of patients median OS was 105 months and median CSS was 116 months. Patients were divided into low risk (23%), intermediate risk (38%) and high risk (39%), according to IPSS. Median OS was 161 months, 105 months and 64 months respectively (p<0.01) and median CSS was 172 months, 116 months and 94 months, respectively (p<0.01). Elevated serum LDH >250 IU/L (normal upper limit 225 IU/L) was found in 18% of patients. Serum LDH was elevated in 16%, 12% and 24% of patients with low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. Median OS according to low or elevated LDH was 109 versus 63 months (p<0.01) and median CSS was 116 versus 64 months, respectively (p<0.01). Serum LDH was able to divide high risk patients into two subgroups with different outcome. The median OS was 94 and 35 months, for normal and high LDH group, respectively (p<0.01) and the median CSS was 104 and 36 months, for normal and high LDH group, respectively (p<0.01). We conclude that the recently proposed IPSS for WM is a robust staging system and it is also applicable to patients who received primary treatment with rituximab-based regimens. Elevated serum LDH is an adverse prognostic factor in WM. The combination of high risk according to IPSS and elevated serum LDH identified a subset of patients with very poor outcome. Such patients should be included in trials that evaluate novel agents and new treatment strategies including upfront high dose therapy. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 82-82
Author(s):  
Ann Caroline Raldow ◽  
Danjie Zhang ◽  
Ming-Hui Chen ◽  
Michelle H. Braccioforte ◽  
Brian Joseph Moran ◽  
...  

82 Background: Active surveillance (AS) is considered appropriate for patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) and a life expectancy of at least 10 years. However, with grade migration following the 2005 International Society of Urologic Pathology consensus conference, AS may also be an initial option for men with favorable intermediate-risk PC. We estimated and compared the risk of PC-specific mortality (PCSM) following high dose radiation therapy and androgen deprivation therapy as appropriate amongst men with low, favorable intermediate, unfavorable intermediate, and high-risk PC. Methods: The study consisted of 6,595 consecutively treated men (median age: 68 years) with localized or locally advanced PC at the Chicago PC Center between 1997 and 2013. Fine and Gray competing risks regression analyses (table) were used to assess the risk of PCSM in men with favorable intermediate, unfavorable intermediate or high-risk compared to low-risk PC, adjusting for age at and year of treatment. Results: After median follow-up of 7.76 years, 820 men died: 72 of PC. While men with favorable intermediate-risk did not have significantly increased risk of PCSM as compared to low-risk PC (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.28, 0.63-2.62 95% confidence interval (CI), p-value 0.49), men with high (adjusted HR 9.91, 5.48-17.94 95% CI, p-value <0.0001) or unfavorable intermediate-risk PC (adjusted HR 3.17, 1.60-6.30, p-value 0.001) did. Eight-year point estimates of PCSM were low: 0.68% [0.32-1.31% 95% CI] and 0.44% [0.25-0.75% 95% CI] for men with favorable intermediate and low-risk PC, respectively. Conclusions: Men with low and favorable intermediate-risk PC have similar and low estimates of PCSM during the first decade following standard management. These results provide evidence to support AS as an initial approach for men with favorable intermediate-risk PC. [Table: see text]


Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 2522-2522
Author(s):  
Marta Pratcorona ◽  
Mireia Camós ◽  
Montserrat Torrebadell ◽  
Maria Rozman ◽  
Ana Carrió ◽  
...  

Abstract The heterogeneous prognosis of patients with intermediate-risk cytogenetics AML (AML-IR) can be partially clarified by screening of NPM1 mutations (NPMmut) and internal tandem duplication of FLT3 (FLT3-ITD). Nonetheless, additional factors might influence the prognostic effect of these molecular lesions, such as the FLT3-ITD mutant level. Moreover, the optimal post-remission strategy might differ depending on the underlying molecular lesion. In this regard, we analyzed the outcome, according to NPM1 and FLT3 mutations and post-remission therapy given, of a series of patients diagnosed with de novo AML-IR in a single institution who received intensive chemotherapy. Patients were treated following 4 sequential protocols of CETLAM group during the period 1994–2006, consisting of 1 or 2 cycles of standard induction chemotherapy and 1 course of high-dose cytarabine-based consolidation therapy. Thereafter, patients underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) according to donor availability and presumed risk (protocols LAM 99 & 2003). NPM1 mutations and FLT3-ITD were screened in diagnostic DNA by PCR amplification followed by Genescan analysis. The ratio between FLT3-ITD and wildtype FLT3 alleles (ITD/wt ratio) was calculated using the area under the peak of corresponding alleles. Overall, 134 patients (51% male; median age, 53; range: 17–70) with AML-IR (normal karyotype, 66%) were studied. NPM1mut and FLT3-ITD were found in 45% and 37% of patients, respectively, with a median ITD/wt ratio of 0.59 (0.045–5.5). After induction regimen, 109 patients (81%) achieved complete response (CR). The only variables predictive of a favorable response were NPMmut (90% vs. 75%; p=0.01) and age &lt;60 (85% vs. 72.5%; p=0.05). After a median follow-up of 69 months, relapse risk (RR) at 5 years was 54% (±5%). RR was higher in patients presenting with hyperleukocytosis (&gt;50 × 109/L), NPMwt, and FLT3-ITD. Interestingly, the prognostic value of FLT3-ITD depended on the relative mutant level, and detection of FLT3-ITD with a low ITD/wt ratio (i.e.,&lt;0.3) did not increase the risk conferred by underlying NPM1 mutational status. In accordance, a composite variable based on NPMmut and quantitative FLT3-ITD was created defining 2 prognostic categories: a low-risk group (LOWmol), constituted by patients with NPMmut and either absence of FLT3-ITD or low ITD/wt ratio, and a high-risk subset (HIGHmol), defined by the absence of NPMmut and/or high ITD/wt ratio. This molecular stratification showed independent prognostic value for RR (5-year RR: 24%±10% vs. 81%±7 in LOWmol vs. HIGHmol patients, respectively; p&lt;0.001), and survival (OS; relative risk: 2.8, 95% CI:1.6-5, p&lt;0.001; figure Moreover, the effect of post-remission therapy varied in both molecular-defined subgroups. Thus, among patients with an age ≤60, 5-year survival in LOWmol patients with a planned autologous HSCT (autoHSCT) was 83%±9%, not differing significantly from that of patients undergoing allogeneic HSCT (intention-to-treat analysis; figure On the other hand, 5-year OS of HIGHmol patients who underwent allogeneic HSCT in first CR was 73%±13, which compared favorably with other post-remission strategies (5-yr OS: 27%±7%; p=0.019). In conclusion, in patients with intermediate-risk AML, the combined assessment of NPM1 mutations and quantitative estimation of FLT3-ITD allows the distinction of 2 categories of patients with different prognosis. Thus, whereas autoHSCT arises as an effective postremission therapy in patients harboring low-risk molecular features, allogeneic HSCT in first CR seems to overcome adverse prognosis of patients with high-risk disease. Nonetheless, the validity of this molecularly-based therapeutic algorithm warrants confirmation in other studies. Figure Figure


Blood ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 108 (11) ◽  
pp. 14-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard F. Schlenk ◽  
Konstanze Dohner ◽  
Hans Pralle ◽  
Katharina Götze ◽  
Michael Pfreundschuh ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: To evaluate outcome of younger adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) allocated to different treatment strategies according to the risk factors “karyotype” and “response to first induction cycle”. Methods: Between 1998 and 2004, 871 patients (age 16–60 yrs) were enrolled. 77% of pts had de novo AML, 16% s-AML, and 7% t-AML. Risk stratification was based on cytogenetics and response to first induction therapy: i) low-risk: t(8;21); ii) intermediate-risk: normal karyotype, inv(16), t(11q23) or other rare aberrations; iii) high-risk: abn(3q), −5/5q-, −7/7q-, abn(12p), abn(17p) or complex karyotype and/or all pts having refractory disease (RD) after the 1st or not achieving complete remission (CR) after the 2nd induction. All pts received first induction with ICE (idarubicin, cytarabine, etoposide) followed by a second cycle ICE in case of CR/PR; pts with RD after first induction were assigned to high-dose cytarabine based salvage therapy. Pts achieving CR after response-adapted induction received first consolidation therapy with HAM. Second consolidation therapy was stratified according to the risk definition: i) low-risk pts were assigned to a second course of HAM; ii) intermediate-risk pts with an MRD were assigned to a HLA-matched related donor (MRD) stem cell transplantation (SCT), whereas the remaining pts were either randomized between autologous SCT and a second course of HAM in case of normal karyotype or assigned to autologous SCT if cytogenetic aberrations were present; iii) all high-risk pts were assigned to allogeneic SCT from a MRD or unrelated donor (MUD). Results: Response after response-adapted double induction therapy was as follows: CR 70%, RD 18%, death 12%. In 69 pts risk assessment could not be performed due to unsuccessful cytogenetics; 701 (91%) were assigned to a specific risk: i) high-risk n=255 (36%); ii) intermediate-risk: 408 (58%) pts, comprising 254 pts with normal karyotype and 154 with aberrations; iii) low-risk: 38 pts. (5%) with t(8;21). The median follow-up time was 47 months. Overall survival (OS) for the whole study population at 4 years was 40% (95%-CI 37-42%). All 38 low-risk pts received intensive chemotherapy translating in an OS of 75% (95%-CI 61%-92%). Intention to treat-analysis for intermediate-risk patients exhibiting a normal karyotype revealed a relapse free survival (RFS) of 63%, 38% and 46% for patients assigned to MRD-SCT, autologous SCT and HAM, respectively (p=0.01). However, this difference in RFS did not translate into a difference (p=0.36) in OS due to effective salvage treatment, i.e. mainly MUD-SCT. Within the intermediate-risk group defined by cytogenetic abnormalities no difference in RFS (p=0.16) and OS (p=0.61) was evident between the intended MRD-SCT and autologous SCT. High-risk: 93 pts received MUD-SCT, 57 MRD-SCT, and 93 no allogeneic SCT, resulting in a feasibility of 58% and an OS of 28%, 29% and 5%, respectively (p&lt;0.0001). Conclusions: In this prospective study, allogeneic SCT from MRD or MUD improved outcome of patients with high-risk features. In addition, pts with normal karyotype had a significant better RFS after allogeneic SCT.


2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Neda Gholizadeh ◽  
Peter B. Greer ◽  
John Simpson ◽  
Jonathan Goodwin ◽  
Caixia Fu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Current multiparametric MRI (mp-MRI) in routine clinical practice has poor-to-moderate diagnostic performance for transition zone prostate cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential diagnostic performance of novel 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) using a semi-localized adiabatic selective refocusing (sLASER) sequence with gradient offset independent adiabaticity (GOIA) pulses in addition to the routine mp-MRI, including T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and quantitative dynamic contrast enhancement (DCE) for transition zone prostate cancer detection, localization and grading. Methods Forty-one transition zone prostate cancer patients underwent mp-MRI with an external phased-array coil. Normal and cancer regions were delineated by two radiologists and divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk categories based on TRUS guided biopsy results. Support vector machine models were built using different clinically applicable combinations of T2WI, DWI, DCE, and MRSI. The diagnostic performance of each model in cancer detection was evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic diagram. Then accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of each model were calculated. Furthermore, the correlation of mp-MRI parameters with low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk cancers were calculated using the Spearman correlation coefficient. Results The addition of MRSI to T2WI + DWI and T2WI + DWI + DCE improved the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity for cancer detection. The best performance was achieved with T2WI + DWI + MRSI where the addition of MRSI improved the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity from 0.86 to 0.99, 0.83 to 0.96, 0.80 to 0.95, and 0.85 to 0.97 respectively. The (choline + spermine + creatine)/citrate ratio of MRSI showed the highest correlation with cancer risk groups (r = 0.64, p < 0.01). Conclusion The inclusion of GOIA-sLASER MRSI into conventional mp-MRI significantly improves the diagnostic accuracy of the detection and aggressiveness assessment of transition zone prostate cancer.


Author(s):  
Johannes Korth ◽  
Benjamin Wilde ◽  
Sebastian Dolff ◽  
Jasmin Frisch ◽  
Michael Jahn ◽  
...  

SARS-CoV-2 is a worldwide challenge for the medical sector. Healthcare workers (HCW) are a cohort vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection due to frequent and close contact with COVID-19 patients. However, they are also well trained and equipped with protective gear. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody status was assessed at three different time points in 450 HCW of the University Hospital Essen in Germany. HCW were stratified according to contact frequencies with COVID-19 patients in (I) a high-risk group with daily contacts with known COVID-19 patients (n = 338), (II) an intermediate-risk group with daily contacts with non-COVID-19 patients (n = 78), and (III) a low-risk group without patient contacts (n = 34). The overall seroprevalence increased from 2.2% in March–May to 4.0% in June–July to 5.1% in October–December. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG detection rate was not significantly different between the high-risk group (1.8%; 3.8%; 5.5%), the intermediate-risk group (5.1%; 6.3%; 6.1%), and the low-risk group (0%, 0%, 0%). The overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence remained low in HCW in western Germany one year after the outbreak of COVID-19 in Germany, and hygiene standards seemed to be effective in preventing patient-to-staff virus transmission.


2021 ◽  
pp. 109352662110487
Author(s):  
Haruna Nishimaki ◽  
Yoko Nakanishi ◽  
Hiroshi Yagasaki ◽  
Shinobu Masuda

Background Peripheral neuroblastic tumors (pNTs) are the most common childhood extracranial solid tumors. There are several therapeutic strategies targeting disialoganglioside GD2. Disialoganglioside GD3 has become a potential target. However, the mechanism by which pNTs express GD3 and GD2 remains unclear. We investigated the combined expression status of GD3 and GD2 in pNTs and delineated their clinicopathological values. Methods GD3 and GD2 expression was examined in pNT tissue samples (n = 35) using immunohistochemistry and multiple immunofluorescence imaging. Results GD3 and GD2 expression was positive in 32/35 and 25/35 samples, respectively. Combinatorial analysis of GD3 and GD2 expression in neuroblastoma showed that both were heterogeneously expressed from cell to cell. There were higher numbers of GD3-positive and GD2-negative cells in the low-risk group than in the intermediate-risk ( P = 0.014) and high-risk ( P = 0.009) groups. Cases with high proportions of GD3-positive and GD2-negative cells were associated with the International Neuroblastoma Staging System stage ( P = 0.004), Children’s Oncology Group risk group ( P = 0.001), and outcome ( P = 0.019) and tended to have a higher overall survival rate. Conclusion We demonstrated that neuroblastomas from low-risk patients included more GD3-positive and GD2-negative cells than those from high-risk patients. Clarifying the heterogeneity of neuroblastoma aids in better understanding the biological characteristics and clinical behavior.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuehua Xi ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Luying Gao ◽  
Yuxin Jiang ◽  
Zhiyong Liang ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer, including thyroid nodules &gt; 4 cm, have been increasing in recent years. The current evaluation methods are based mostly on studies of patients with thyroid nodules &lt; 4 cm. The aim of the current study was to establish a risk stratification model to predict risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules &gt; 4 cm.MethodsA total of 279 thyroid nodules &gt; 4 cm in 267 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Nodules were randomly assigned to a training dataset (n = 140) and a validation dataset (n = 139). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to establish a nomogram. The risk stratification of thyroid nodules &gt; 4 cm was established according to the nomogram. The diagnostic performance of the model was evaluated and compared with the American College Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (ACR TI-RADS), Kwak TI-RADS and 2015 ATA guidelines using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsThe analysis included 279 nodules (267 patients, 50.6 ± 13.2 years): 229 were benign and 50 were malignant. Multivariate regression revealed microcalcification, solid mass, ill-defined border and hypoechogenicity as independent risk factors. Based on the four factors, a risk stratified clinical model was developed for evaluating nodules &gt; 4 cm, which includes three categories: high risk (risk value = 0.8-0.9, with more than 3 factors), intermediate risk (risk value = 0.3-0.7, with 2 factors or microcalcification) and low risk (risk value = 0.1-0.2, with 1 factor except microcalcification). In the validation dataset, the malignancy rate of thyroid nodules &gt; 4 cm that were classified as high risk was 88.9%; as intermediate risk, 35.7%; and as low risk, 6.9%. The new model showed greater AUC than ACR TI-RADS (0.897 vs. 0.855, p = 0.040), but similar sensitivity (61.9% vs. 57.1%, p = 0.480) and specificity (91.5% vs. 93.2%, p = 0.680).ConclusionMicrocalcification, solid mass, ill-defined border and hypoechogenicity on ultrasound may be signs of malignancy in thyroid nodules &gt; 4 cm. A risk stratification model for nodules &gt; 4 cm may show better diagnostic performance than ACR TI-RADS, which may lead to better preoperative decision-making.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 3009-3009
Author(s):  
Eun-Ji Choi ◽  
Young-Uk Cho ◽  
Seongsoo Jang ◽  
Chan-jeoung Park ◽  
Han-Seung Park ◽  
...  

Background: Unexplained cytopenia comprises a spectrum of hematological diseases from idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS) to myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) is the standard tool to assess risk in MDS. Here, we investigated the occurrence, characteristics, and changing pattern of mutations in patients with ICUS and MDS stratified by IPSS-R score. Methods: A total of 211 patients were enrolled: 73 with ICUS and 138 with MDS. We analyzed the sequencing data of a targeted gene panel assay covering 141 genes using the MiSeqDx platform (Illumina). The lower limit of variant allele frequency (VAF) was set to 2.0% of mutant allele reads. Bone marrow components were assessed for the revised diagnosis according to the 2016 WHO classification. Lower-risk (LR) MDS was defined as those cases with very low- or low-risk MDS according to the IPSS-R. Higher-risk (HR) MDS was defined as those cases with high- or very high-risk MDS according to the IPSS-R. Results: Patients with ICUS were classified as very low-risk (39.7%), low-risk (54.8%), and intermediate-risk (5.5%) according to the IPSS-R. Patients with MDS were classified as LR (35.5%), intermediate-risk (30.4%), and HR (34.1%). In the ICUS, 28 (38.4%) patients carried at least one mutation in the recurrently mutated genes in MDS (MDS mutation). The most commonly mutated genes were DNMT3A (11.0%), followed by TET2 (9.6%), BCOR (4.1%), and U2AF1, SRSF2, IDH1 and ETV6 (2.7% for each). IPSS-R classification was not associated with mutational VAF and the number of mutations in ICUS. In the 49 LR MDS, 28 (57.1%) patients carried at least one MDS mutation. The most commonly mutated genes were SF3B1 (20.4%), followed by TET2 (12.2%), U2AF1 (10.2%), DNMT3A (10.2%), ASXL1 (10.2%), and BCOR (6.1%). Higher VAF and number of mutations were observed in LR MDS compared to ICUS patients. In the 42 intermediate-risk MDS, 27 (64.3%) patients carried at least one MDS mutation. The most commonly mutated genes were ASXL1 (23.8%), followed by TET2 (21.4%), RUNX1 (16.7%), U2AF1 (14.3%), DNMT3A (14.3%), SF3B1 (9.5%), and SRSF2, BCOR, STAG2 and CBL (7.1% for each). In the 47 HR MDS, 36 (76.6%) patients carried at least one MDS mutation. The most commonly mutated genes were TET2 (25.5%), followed by DNMT3A (14.9%), TP53 (14.9%), RUNX1 (12.8%), U2AF1 (10.6%), ASXL1 (10.6%), and SRSF2 and KRAS (6.4% for each). As the disease progressed, VAF and number of the MDS mutations gradually increased, and mutations involving RNA splicing, histone modification, transcription factor or p53 pathway had a trend for increasing frequency. Specifically, ASXL1, TP53, and RUNX1 mutations were the most striking features in patients with advanced stage of the disease. Cohesin mutations were not detected in ICUS, whereas these mutations were detected at a relatively high frequency in HR MDS. Our data were summarized in Table 1. Conclusions: We demonstrate that on disease progression, MDS mutations are increased in number as well as are expanded in size. Furthermore, a subset of mutations tends to be enriched for intermediate- to HR MDS. The results of this study can aid both diagnostic and prognostic stratification in patients with unexpected cytopenia. In particular, characterization of MDS mutations can be useful in refining bone marrow diagnosis in challenging situations such as distinguishing LR MDS from ICUS. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Chen ◽  
Tian-en Li ◽  
Pei-zhun Du ◽  
Junjie Pan ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and aims: In this research, we aimed to construct a risk classification model to predict overall survival (OS) and locoregional surgery benefit in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with distant metastasis.Methods: We selected a cohort consisting of 12741 CRC patients diagnosed with distant metastasis between 2010 and 2014, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned into training group and validation group at the ratio of 2:1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to screen independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed and assessed by the Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. A novel risk classification model was further established based on the nomogram.Results: Ultimately 12 independent risk factors including race, age, marriage, tumor site, tumor size, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis and liver metastasis were identified and adopted in the nomogram. The C-indexes of training and validation groups were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78), respectively. The risk classification model stratified patients into three risk groups (low-, intermediate- and high-risk) with divergent median OS (low-risk: 36.0 months, 95% CI 34.1-37.9; intermediate-risk: 18.0 months, 95% CI 17.4-18.6; high-risk: 6.0 months, 95% CI 5.3-6.7). Locoregional therapies including surgery and radiotherapy could prognostically benefit patients in the low-risk group (surgery: hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.71; radiotherapy: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and intermediate risk group (surgery: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68; radiotherapy: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.95), but not in the high-risk group (surgery: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.29; radiotherapy: HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.81-1.31). And all risk groups could benefit from systemic therapy (low-risk: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80; intermediate-risk: HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47-0.54; high-risk: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.53).Conclusion: A novel risk classification model predicting prognosis and locoregional surgery benefit of CRC patients with distant metastasis was established and validated. This predictive model could be further utilized by physicians and be of great significance for medical practice.


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