scholarly journals Northward expansion trends and future potential distribution of a dragonfly Ischnura senegalensis Rambur under climate change using citizen science data in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sookyung Shin ◽  
Kwang Soo Jung ◽  
Hong Gu Kang ◽  
Ji-Hee Dang ◽  
Doohee Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Baseline Data ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Science Data ◽  
Northward Expansion

Abstract Background Citizen science is becoming a mainstream approach of baseline data collection to monitor biodiversity and climate change. Dragonflies (Odonata) have been ranked as the highest priority group in biodiversity monitoring for global warming. Ischnura senegalensis Rambur has been designated a biological indicator of climate change and is being monitored by the citizen science project “Korean Biodiversity Observation Network.” This study has been performed to understand changes in the distribution range of I. senegalensis in response to climate change using citizen science data in South Korea. Results We constructed a dataset of 397 distribution records for I. senegalensis, ranging from 1980 to 2020. The number of records sharply increased over time and space, and in particular, citizen science monitoring data accounted for the greatest proportion (58.7%) and covered the widest geographical range. This species was only distributed in the southern provinces until 2010 but was recorded in the higher latitudes such as Gangwon-do, Incheon, Seoul, and Gyeonggi-do (max. Paju-si, 37.70° latitude) by 2020. A species distribution model showed that the annual mean temperature (Bio1; 63.2%) and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5; 16.7%) were the most critical factors influencing its distribution. Future climate change scenarios have predicted an increase in suitable habitats for this species. Conclusions This study is the first to show the northward expansion in the distribution range of I. senegalensis in response to climate warming in South Korea over the past 40 years. In particular, citizen science was crucial in supplying critical baseline data to detect the distribution change toward higher latitudes. Our results provide new insights on the value of citizen science as a tool for detecting the impact of climate change on ecosystems in South Korea.

scholarly journals Assessing runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under global climate-change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Chen ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Yuelu Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract An accurate grasp of the influence of precipitation and temperature changes on the variation in both the magnitude and temporal patterns of runoff is crucial to the prevention of floods and droughts. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the ways in which runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes are associated with the CMIP5 scenarios. This paper investigates the hydrological response to future climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and then quantitatively assesses runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under different scenarios by using a set of simulations with the control variable method. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is an ideal area to study this problem. The results demonstrated that the precipitation effect was the dominant element influencing runoff change (the degree of influence approaching 23%), followed by maximum temperature (approaching 12%). The weakest element was minimum temperature (approaching 3%), despite the fact that the increases in minimum temperature were higher than the increases in maximum temperature. The results also indicated that the degree of runoff sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes was subject to changing external climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Paddy Yield: A Case Study of Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC), Tarahara, Nepal

1970 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yam K Rai ◽  
Bhakta B Ale ◽  
Jawed Alam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Research Council ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and global warming are burning issues, which significantly threat agriculture and global food security. Change in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation will influence the change in crop yields and hence economy of agriculture. It is possible to understand the phenomenon of climate change on crop production and to develop adaptation strategies for sustainability in food production, using a suitable crop simulation model. CERES-Rice model of DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the rice yield of the region under climate change scenarios using the historical weather data at Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC) Tarahara (1989-2008). The Crop Model was calibrated using the experimental crop data, climate data and soil data for two years (2000-2001) and was validated by using the data of the year 2002 at NARC Tarahara. In this study various scenarios were undertaken to analyze the rice yield. The change in values of weather parameters due to climate change and its effects on the rice yield were studied. It was observed that increase in maximum temperature up to 2°C and 1°C in minimum temperature have positive impact on rice yield but beyond that temperature it was observed negative impact in both cases of paddy production in ambient temperature. Similarly, it was observed that increased in mean temperature, have negative impacts on rice yield. The impact of solar radiation in rice yield was observed positive during the time of study period. Adjustments were made in the fertilizer rate, plant density per square meter, planting date and application of water rate to investigate suitable agronomic options for adaptation under the future climate change scenarios. Highest yield was obtained when the water application was increased up to 3 mm depth and nitrogen application rate was 140 kg/ha respectively. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jie.v8i3.5941 JIE 2011; 8(3): 147-167

scholarly journals Role of Maximum Entropy and Citizen Science to Study Habitat Suitability of Jacobin Cuckoo in Different Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Priyanka Singh ◽  
Sameer Saran ◽  
Sultan Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Recent advancements in spatial modelling and mapping methods have opened up new horizons for monitoring the migration of bird species, which have been altered due to the climate change. The rise of citizen science has also aided the spatiotemporal data collection with associated attributes. The biodiversity data from citizen observatories can be employed in machine learning algorithms for predicting suitable environmental conditions for species’ survival and their future migration behaviours. In this study, different environmental variables effective in birds’ migrations were analysed, and their habitat suitability was assessed for future understanding of their responses in different climate change scenarios. The Jacobin cuckoo (Clamator jacobinus) was selected as the subject species, since their arrival to India has been traditionally considered as a sign for the start of the Indian monsoon season. For suitability predictions in current and future scenarios, maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling was carried out with environmental variables and species occurrences observed in India and Africa. For modelling, the correlation test was performed on the environmental variables (bioclimatic, precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, wind and elevation). The results showed that precipitation-related variables played a significant role in suitability, and through reclassified habitat suitability maps, it was observed that the suitable areas of India and Africa might decrease in future climatic scenarios (SSPs 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) of 2030 and 2050. In addition, the suitability and unsuitability areas were calculated (in km2) to observe the subtle changes in the ecosystem. Such climate change studies can support biodiversity research and improve the agricultural economy.

Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (04) ◽  
pp. 304-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker ◽  
Khorshed Alam ◽  
Jeff Gow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Quadratic Functional ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper uses the framework of the Just–Pope production function to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yields of the rainfed Aman rice crop in Bangladesh. It analyses disaggregated district-level data on climate variables and Aman rice yield over a 48 year time horizon. The results reveal that changes in maximum temperatures have had positive and negative effects on yield in the linear and quadratic functional forms, respectively. However, the elasticity values in the variance function confirm that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice while minimum temperature is likely to decrease yield variability. Rainfall has become risk-increasing for Aman rice. Based on three climate change scenarios, this paper also reveals that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yields. Finally, statistically significant dummies for different in-country climate zones require zone-specific adaptation policies to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Productivity of Maize in the Semi-Arid Environment of Punjab, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3905
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mohsin Waqas ◽  
Syed Hamid Hussain Shah ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
Ishfaq Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Swap Model ◽  
Semi Arid

Impact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 °C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 °C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm−3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm−3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Precipitation over the Ghataprabha Sub-Basin, India under Future Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nagendra Reddy ◽  
Nagraj S Patil ◽  
Rajashekhar S Laddimath
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract The present study has been taken up to quantify the possible impacts of the climate change on the climate variables using the outputs of global climate models datasets over the Ghataprabha Sub-basin. The climate variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature) data from the five selected global climate model dataset were downscaled using change factor method under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios for future periods near-century (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069), and end-century (2070-2099). The downscaled results of all the five models were ensembled using multi-model ensembling method to reduce the uncertainty in the projected results and the percentage change in the climate variables were shown with respect to the historical/baseline period (1961-1990) using spatial plots and histograms. The future projected results shows that percentage change in the annual mean precipitation with respect to the historical (1961-1990), is decreasing for most of the grids in the study area during the near-century while during mid and end centuries it shows an increasing trend across all the four RCP scenarios. The average daily minimum and maximum temperature with respect to the historical (1961-1990) values were showing an increasing trend in the study area during the near, mid, and end centuries across all the four RCP scenarios. Further, study also analysed the percentage change in 100-year return level over the study area.

scholarly journals Assessment of Future Climate Change Impact on an Agricultural Reservoir in South Korea

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2125
Author(s):  
Jaenam Lee ◽  
Hyungjin Shin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Supply Capacity ◽  
Agricultural Reservoir

Drought has been frequently occurring in South Korea due to climate change. Analyzing the water supply capacity of the water resource system provides essential information for water resource management. This study evaluates the future water supply capacity of the Gwanghye (GH) agricultural reservoir based on the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We performed a reservoir simulation by reflecting the full water level of the reservoir before and after reservoir heightening. Climate change is expected to decrease the GH reservoir’s future available water resources due to the overall reduction in the reservoir’s runoff. After the reservoir-heightening project, an overall improvement was observed in the stability of the future irrigation water supply. Moreover, the remaining water after the supply of the irrigation water could supply 0.6–7.2 × 103 m3 of daily instream water. Thus, flexible reservoir operations are necessary according to climate change scenarios and the reservoir operation period. The use of climate change information should be expanded to establish reasonable water management policies for future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

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