Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 308-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolfs Bems ◽  
Robert C Johnson ◽  
Kei-Mu Yi
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Vertical Specialization ◽  
Common View ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Vertical Linkages ◽  
Shed Light

A common view is that cross-border vertical linkages played a key role in the 2008–2009 collapse of global trade. This paper presents two accounting results from a global input-output framework that shed light on this channel. We feed in observed changes in final demand and find that trade in final goods fell by twice as much as trade in intermediate goods. Nevertheless, intermediate goods account for more than two-fifths of the trade collapse. We also find that vertical specialization trade fell 13 percent, while value-added trade fell by 10 percent, because declines in demand were largest in highly vertically-specialized sectors.

Accounting for China's Import Growth: A Structural Decomposition for 1997–2005

2011 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 2971-2991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiansuo Pei ◽  
Erik Dietzenbacher ◽  
Jan Oosterhaven ◽  
Cuihong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Volume Growth ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Vertical Specialization ◽  
Structural Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Structural Decomposition ◽  
China’S Growth

This paper applies structural decomposition analysis to Chinese input–output tables in order to disentangle and quantify the sources of China's import growth and China's growth in vertical specialization: that is, China's incorporation into the global supply chain. China's exports and the role of processing trade therein have increased substantially in the last decade. Yet, they account for only one third of China's import growth from 1997 to 2005. Instead, the volume growth of China's domestic final demand is found to be most important. Moreover, compared with other countries, the structural change in input–output coefficients and in the commodity composition of domestic final demand turns out to be surprisingly important. Looking only at vertical specialization, it is concluded that more than half of its growth, from 21% in 1997 to 30% in 2005, is due to the growth of China's import ratios.

scholarly journals The structure and evolution of production, employment and human capital in Portugal: an input‑output approach

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Carlos Lopes ◽  
João Ferreira Do Amaral
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
Demand Structure

The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the structure and evolution of production, employment and human capital in Portugal, using an inter‑industry approach. A descriptive analysis of the sector composition of gross output, value added and employment is made, followed by a quantification of changes in relative labour productivity and primary input content of final demand components. Next, the evolution of employment multipliers is quantified, as well as the structure of labour force qualifications by sector. Although remarkable improvements have been achieved in the past, the low educational levels of its workers, on average, remains one the main vulnerabilities of Portugal in the global and knowledge economy of our days. In this context, the main contribution of the paper is the quantification of human capital requirements of final demand changes by component. Using an input ‑output approach combining sector productivities and labour qualifications, output multipliers and final demand structure, it is possible to quantify the growth in employment by level of qualification resulting from a unitary growth of private and public consumption, investment and exports. This exercise is made for 1995 and 2008, using input‑output domestic flow tables from INE and DPP and employment qualifications from Quadros de Pessoal database.

scholarly journals Китай в глобальных цепочках стоимости: некоторые факты

2020 ◽  
pp. 20-27
Author(s):  
Наталья Волгина ◽  
Пэнфэй Лю
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Cheap Labor ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Very High

В статье представлены особенности участия Китая в глобальной цепочке создания стоимости (далее  ГЦС) по сравнению с крупнейшими мировыми экспортерами. В соответствии с расчетами на основе статистической базы ОЭСР TiVa, авторы приходят к следующим выводам: в последние годы для всех стран было характерно снижение интеграции в ГЦС, при этом, показатели этого снижения для Китая были минимальными; сокращение участия стран в ГЦС напрямую связана с уменьшением доли зарубежной добавленной стоимости в экспорте, причем зависимость Китая от импортируемых промежуточных продуктов снижалась наиболее быстрыми темпами. China’s accession to the WTO has not only entailed China's increased role in the world trade, but has also symbolized the beginning of China’s accelerated integration into the global value chains (GVCs). Initially, China was of interest to developed countries as a location with relatively cheap labor, but gradually its role in the GVC changed, and China became the largest exporter of intermediate goods of final demand in the industrial supply chains, primarily in the automotive and electronics sectors. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate Chinese exports not only and not so much in terms of gross figures, but in terms of value added indicators. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the features of China's participation in GVCs compared with the world's largest exporters such as the USA and Germany. In accordance with the calculations based on the OECD TiVa statistical database, the authors come to the following conclusions: all countries have experienced a decline in GSC integration in recent years, while the rate of the decline for China has been minimal; the decline in countries' participation in GSCs is directly related to the declining share of foreign value added in exports, with China's dependence on imported intermediate products declining most rapidly; at the same time China has increased its share of indirect domestic value added in its exports of intermediate goods by building up its own supply chain. Despite the fact that the countries participation in GVCs is declining, it remains very high, and it is too early to talk about the established trends in de-globalization.

scholarly journals Modification of the Ghosh model structure in inter-sectoral analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (3) ◽  
pp. 06-21
Author(s):  
М.M. Kulyk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Model ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Sectoral Analysis ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
Leontief Model

The current Ghosh model is based on the use of value-added forecast data. The forecasts of gross domestic product and value added have long and regularly been developed by different national and international economic and financial structures, including governmental ones. The level of methods and accuracy of such forecasts is quite high as compared with the final demand forecasts on which the Leontief model is based. Therefore, from the econometric point of view, the accuracy of predictions of output made by using the Ghosh model should be at least not worse than that provided by the classical Leontief model. The modified Ghosh model formally differs from its current model by the presence of a new matrix. However, this difference is only a structural feature, and in mathematical terms these models are identical. At the same time, the modified Ghosh model is more attractive and promising than the current one due to the following factors. It uses one matrix instead of two matrices that appear in the current model. The modified model has a structure (unlike the current one) similar to the structure of the classical Leontief model. Due to this, the modified model is more understandable and easy to use. However, the most important feature lies in the fact that the use of a new matrix significantly expands the possibilities of theoretical research within the input-output structures. Due to constructing a new matrix in the modified Ghosh model, new relations between the vectors of final demand and value added were discovered, which can be efficiently used in balancing the system of input-output matrices. It was also established that the corresponding matrices of the classical Leontief model and the modified Ghosh model have identical diagonal elements in pairs, and this is useful in various analytical studies. Keywords: modified Ghosh model, input-output, Leontief model, value added, final demand

Planning with Semi-input-output Method with Empirical Application to Nigeria. By Arie Kuyvenhoven. Leiden: Martinus Nijhoff Social Sciences Division. 1978. xi + 266 pp.

1980 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-249
Author(s):  
A. R. Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
The Other ◽  
Production Structure ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Output Analysis ◽  
Input Output Analysis ◽  
Comparative Cost ◽  
Planning Models

Input -output analysis is being widely used in developing countries for planning purposes. For a given level of final demand, input-output analysis allows us to project the required level of gross output to ensure consistency of plan. These projections are made on the assumption that the existing production structure is optimal and it implies that an increase in demand will be met through the expansion of domestic output even when it can be satisfied through an increase in imports. On the other hand, according to the semi-input-output method, we do not have to increase the output of international sectors in order to meet the increase in demand because the level and composition of these activities should be determined by comparative- cost considerations. These are the only national sectors in which output must increase in order to avoid shortage. The semi-input -output method has been such a useful and important contribution, yet, regrettably, its influence on the planning models had been rather limited.

Emissions Responsibility and Relative Importance of the Productive Sectors in Turkey: 2002-2011

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celal Taşdoğan ◽  
Bilgen Taşdoğan
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Value Added ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Key Sectors

Turkey has realized high growth rates during the period of 2002-2011, except in 2008 and 2009 years. It is thought that the rapidly growing in the country may cause a lot of environmental damage, especially air pollution problems. In other words, the productive sectors have produced two outputs which are economic value added and air pollutants. This study used input output matrixes are to find out the strategically important sectors as it is known key sectors and weak sectors caused the environmental effects in the country. For this purpose, it has been tried to investigate air pollutant quantities which caused by the production process of the sectors in the period of 2002-2011 and performed the input-output tables for Turkey constructed in the World Input Output Database (WIOD) Project. These input-output tables include the emission satellite accounts, which are CO2 emissions and other air pollutants, respectively N2O, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, CO, NMVOC and NH3, disaggregated for the 34 sectors. It is expected that the outcomes of the study may contribute to sustainable growth debates and environmental policy implementations in Turkey.

Socioeconomic effects of pension spending: evidence from Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 599-617
Author(s):  
Fernando Bermejo ◽  
Eladio Febrero ◽  
Andre Fernandes Tomon Avelino
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Alternative View ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Structural Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide broader understanding of the significant role that the pension system has in the Spanish economy by estimating the sectoral production, employment and income sustained by pensioners' consumption.Design/methodology/approachBased on input–output tables by the World Input–Output Database and consumption data from the Household Budget Survey by the Spanish Statistical Office, a demoeconomic model is applied to quantify the direct impacts, indirect impacts from interindustry links and induced impacts from income–consumption connections over a nine-year period (2006–2014). Then, the factors driving the evolution of total output, employment and value added during such period have been examined by using structural decomposition analysis.FindingsThe growing participation of consumption by pensioner households in final demand had proven crucial during the 2008 crisis to alleviate the negative trend in production and employment derived from the collapse in consumption suffered by the rest of households.Practical implicationsDetermining the underlying factors driving changes in both employment and income during the 2008 crisis can be of interest in political decision-making on the sustainability of the Spanish pension system.Social implicationsThe results of estimating both the employment and income supported by pensioners' consumption reveal the significant stabilizing effect of the public spending on pensions, particularly during the 2008 crisis.Originality/valueThe current Spanish approach of attaining the pension system sustainability by merely reducing social protection costs ignores the adverse consequences of a lower pensioners' demand. This paper addresses an alternative view in which pension spending is not considered a burden on economic growth but rather a means of improving the level of production and employment.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-01-2019-0047

scholarly journals A Cross-Country Measurement of the EU Bioeconomy: An Input–Output Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3033
Author(s):  
Kutay Cingiz ◽  
Hugo Gonzalez-Hermoso ◽  
Wim Heijman ◽  
Justus H. H. Wesseler
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Union Member ◽  
National Income ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Income Share ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
European Union Member States ◽  
The Eu

This paper measures the development of the national income share of the bioeconomy for 28 European Union Member States (MS) and 16 industries of BioMonitor scope from 2005 to 2015. The paper proposes a model which includes the up- and downstream linkages using Input-Output tables. The results show that for the majority of the MS the value added of the up- and downstream sector is at the band of 40%–50% of the total bioeconomy value added and has on average increased since the financial crisis.

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