scholarly journals Cardiovascular risk prediction in India: Comparison of the original and recalibrated Framingham prognostic models in urban populations.

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priti Gupta ◽  
David Prieto-Merino ◽  
Vamadevan S. Ajay ◽  
Kalpana Singh ◽  
Ambuj Roy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Resource Setting ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death in India. The CVD risk approach is a cost-effective way to identify those at high risk, especially in a low resource setting. As there is no validated prognostic model for an Indian urban population, we have re-calibrated the original Framingham model using data from two urban Indian studies. Methods: We have estimated three risk score equations using three different models. The first model was based on Framingham original model; the second and third are the recalibrated models using risk factor prevalence from CARRS (Centre for cArdiometabolic Risk Reduction in South-Asia) and ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) studies, and estimated survival from WHO 2012 data for India. We applied these three risk scores to the CARRS and ICMR participants and estimated the proportion of those at high-risk (>30% 10 years CVD risk) who would be eligible to receive preventive treatment such as statins. Results: In the CARRS study, the proportion of men with 10 years CVD risk > 30% (and therefore eligible for statin treatment) was 13.3%, 21%, and 13.6% using Framingham, CARRS and ICMR risk models, respectively. The corresponding proportions of women were 3.5%, 16.4%, and 11.6%. In the ICMR study the corresponding proportions of men were 16.3%, 24.2%, and 16.5% and for women, these were 5.6%, 20.5%, and 15.3%. Conclusion: Although the recalibrated model based on local population can improve the validity of CVD risk scores our study exemplifies the variation between recalibrated models using different data from the same country. Considering the growing burden of cardiovascular diseases in India, and the impact that the risk approach has on influencing cardiovascular prevention treatment, such as statins, it is essential to develop high quality and well powered local cohorts (with outcome data) to develop local prognostic models.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular risk prediction in India: Comparison of the original and recalibrated Framingham prognostic models in urban populations.

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priti Gupta ◽  
David Prieto-Merino ◽  
Vamadevan S. Ajay ◽  
Kalpana Singh ◽  
Ambuj Roy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Resource Setting ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death in India. The CVD risk approach is a cost-effective way to identify those at high risk, especially in a low resource setting. As there is no validated prognostic model for an Indian urban population, we have re-calibrated the original Framingham model using data from two urban Indian studies. Methods: We have estimated three risk score equations using three different models. The first model was based on Framingham original model; the second and third are the recalibrated models using risk factor prevalence from CARRS (Centre for cArdiometabolic Risk Reduction in South-Asia) and ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) studies, and estimated survival from WHO 2012 data for India. We applied these three risk scores to the CARRS and ICMR participants and estimated the proportion of those at high-risk (>30% 10 years CVD risk) who would be eligible to receive preventive treatment such as statins. Results: In the CARRS study, the proportion of men with 10 years CVD risk > 30% (and therefore eligible for statin treatment) was 13.3%, 21%, and 13.6% using Framingham, CARRS and ICMR risk models, respectively. The corresponding proportions of women were 3.5%, 16.4%, and 11.6%. In the ICMR study the corresponding proportions of men were 16.3%, 24.2%, and 16.5% and for women, these were 5.6%, 20.5%, and 15.3%. Conclusion: Although the recalibrated model based on local population can improve the validity of CVD risk scores our study exemplifies the variation between recalibrated models using different data from the same country. Considering the growing burden of cardiovascular diseases in India, and the impact that the risk approach has on influencing cardiovascular prevention treatment, such as statins, it is essential to develop high quality and well powered local cohorts (with outcome data) to develop local prognostic models.

scholarly journals Comparative risk assessment for the development of cardiovascular diseases in the Hungarian general and Roma population

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Piko ◽  
Zsigmond Kosa ◽  
Janos Sandor ◽  
Roza Adany
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Roma Population

AbstractCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of death globally, and the early identification of high risk is crucial to prevent the disease and to reduce healthcare costs. Short life expectancy and increased mortality among the Roma are generally accepted (although not indeed proven by mortality analyses) which can be partially explained by the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) among them. This study aims to elaborate on the prevalence of the most important CVD risk factors, assess the estimation of a 10-year risk of development of fatal and nonfatal CVDs based on the most used risk assessment scoring models, and to compare the Hungarian general (HG) and Roma (HR) populations. In 2018 a complex health survey was accomplished on the HG (n = 380) and HR (n = 347) populations. The prevalence of CVRS was defined and 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated for both study populations using the following systems: Framingham Risk Score for hard coronary heart disease (FRSCHD) and for cardiovascular disease (FRSCVD), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Revised Pooled Cohort Equations (RPCE). After the risk scores had been calculated, the populations were divided into risk categories and all subjects were classified. For all CVD risk estimation scores, the average of the estimated risk was higher among Roma compared to the HG independently of the gender. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma males population was on average 1.5–3 times higher than in the general one. Among Roma females, the average risk value was higher than in the HG one. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma females population was on average 2–3 times higher compared to the distribution of females in the general population. Our results show that both genders in the Hungarian Roma population have a significantly higher risk for a 10-year development of cardiovascular diseases and dying from them compared to the HG one. Therefore, cardiovascular interventions should be focusing not only on reducing smoking among Roma but on improving health literacy and service provision regarding prevention, early recognition, and treatment of lipid disorders and diabetes among them.

Abstract 149: Impact of Baseline 10-year Cardiovascular Risk on Benefit and Harm of Intensive Treatment in SPRINT

Hypertension ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A Phillips ◽  
Jiaqiong Xu ◽  
Leif E Peterson ◽  
Joseph A Diamond ◽  
Adam E Schussheim
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Treatment ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Number Needed To Treat ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Serious Adverse Events ◽  
Treatment Groups ◽  
Risk Algorithm ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Incremental Increase

We investigated the impact of baseline CV risk on outcomes in SPRINT. Using the ACC/AHA CVD risk algorithm, we stratified the SPRINT population into quartiles of baseline 10-year CV risk. Within each quartile, Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the effect of intensive treatment vs. standard of care on the SPRINT CV outcomes, all-cause mortality and serious adverse events (SAEs). Number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed to harm (NNH) were calculated for each quartile. There were 9,323 participants with available baseline ACC/AHA 10-year risk scores. In each quartile of risk, the hazard ratio (HR) favored intensive treatment. For CV outcomes, NNT decreased from 91 in the 1 st quartile to 38 in the 4 th quartile. For all-cause mortality, NNT decreased from 333 in the 1 st quartile to 45 in the 4 th quartile. Although incidence of all SAEs increased with each quartile in both treatment groups (p for trend <0.0001), there was no difference in incidence of SAEs between the treatment groups in each quartile. However, SAEs classified as hypotension were more frequent in the 4 th quartile for the intensive treatment group (incremental increase 1.8%, NNH = 55) and SAEs classified as acute kidney injury or acute renal failure were significantly more frequent in the 2 nd , 3 rd and 4 th quartiles for the intensively treated group (incremental increase 1.7%, 2.4% and 2.1%; NNH 59, 42 and 48, respectively). Therefore, those with greatest baseline CVD risk got the most benefit from intensive BP treatment but were at greater risk for hypotension and renal injury. This analysis may help providers and patients make decisions regarding the intensity of BP treatment to prevent death and CV events.

scholarly journals Intake of Commercially Produced Fermented Soy Powder Q CAN PLUS® Favorably Changes Cholesterol and Isoflavone Intake in Individuals at High Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 408-408
Author(s):  
Sarah Jung ◽  
Rawiwan Sirirat ◽  
Alice Kim ◽  
Ella Haddad ◽  
Joan Sabaté
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Placebo Treatment ◽  
Soy Isoflavones ◽  
Biological Research ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Total Carbohydrate ◽  
Placebo Phase ◽  
Soy Powder

Abstract Objectives Q CAN PLUS® is a fermented soy powder currently marketed in the US as a food product. We conducted a feeding trial to examine the effects of Q CAN PLUS® on the nutrient composition of the habitual diets of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that the nutrient profile, particularly nutrients associated with CVD risk, differs among individuals in the Q CAN PLUS® phase compared to the placebo phase. Methods Study design was a randomized, controlled crossover intervention with twenty-four free living adults (29–75 years old; 80% female; 8% normal BMI, 45% overweight, 47% obese) at high risk of cardiovascular diseases. Subjects were randomized to receive either Q CAN PLUS® (fermented soy) powder or placebo powder for twelve weeks and switched over to the placebo treatment after two weeks of wash out period. Two 24-hour dietary recalls were collected during each phase which included one weekday and one weekend dietary recall. The nutrient consumption per day (mean ± SD) were based on a synthetic week by using the following formula: ((weekday * 5) +(weekday * 2))/7. Results On average, intake of cholesterol (211 ± 169 mg) was 13% lower (P = 0.05) in the Q CAN PLUS® phase compared to placebo (243 ± 179 mg). Total soy isoflavones (444 ± 210 mg) was 12 times higher (P &lt; 0.0001) during Q CAN PLUS® phase than the placebo phase (33 ± 93 mg). Dietary total carbohydrate, total protein, vegetable protein, animal protein during Q CAN PLUS® phase were not statistically different from placebo phase. Conclusions The differences in the intake of cholesterol and total soy isoflavones may have implications on risk of cardiovascular diseases. Funding Sources BESO Biological Research Inc Diamond Bar, CA, USA.

Underperformance of clinical risk scores in identifying vascular ultrasound-based high cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-352
Author(s):  
George C Drosos ◽  
George Konstantonis ◽  
Petros P Sfikakis ◽  
Maria G Tektonidou
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
P Value ◽  
Atherosclerotic Plaques ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Clinical Risk

Abstract Aims The aim of this study was to assess the performance of eight clinical risk prediction scores to identify individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, as defined by the presence of atherosclerotic plaques. Methods CVD risk was estimated in 210 eligible SLE patients without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus (female: 93.3%, mean age: 44.8 ± 12 years) using five generic (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Pooled Cohort Risk Equations (ASCVD), Globorisk, Prospective Cardiovascular Münster Study risk calculator (PROCAM)) and three ‘SLE-adapted’ (modified-SCORE, modified-FRS, QRESEARCH risk estimator, version 3 (QRISK3)) CVD risk scores, as well as ultrasound examination of the carotid and femoral arteries. Calibration, discrimination and classification measures to identify high CVD risk based on the presence of atherosclerotic plaques were assessed for all risk models. CVD risk reclassification was applied for all scores by incorporating ultrasound results. Results Moderate calibration (p-value range from 0.38 to 0.63) and discrimination (area under the curve 0.73–0.84), and low-to-moderate sensitivity (8.3–71.4%) and classification ability (Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) 0.25–0.47) were observed for all risk models to identify patients with plaques at any arterial site as high-risk. MCC was improved for modified-FRS versus FRS (0.43 vs 0.36), but not for modified-SCORE versus SCORE (0.25 vs 0.25). Based on plaque presence, CVD risk was upgraded to high-risk in 10%, 16.1%, 20.5%, 21.5%, 24%, 28.2% and 28.6% of cases classified as non-high-risk by QRISK3, modified-FRS, Globorisk, FRS/PROCAM, ASCVD, modified-SCORE and SCORE, respectively. Conclusions Most of the five generic and three ‘SLE-adapted’ clinical risk scores underestimated high CVD risk defined by atherosclerotic plaque presence in patients with SLE.

scholarly journals A community based cross sectional study to estimate total cardiovascular risk in rural Punjab

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1295
Author(s):  
Bibhava Vikramaditya ◽  
Mahesh Satija ◽  
Anurag Chaudhary ◽  
Sarit Sharma ◽  
Sangeeta Girdhar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cross Sectional

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading cause of non communicable deaths in India. CVD risk prediction charts by World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) are designed for implementing timely preventive measures. The objective of the study was to assess the prevalence of CVD risk parameters and to estimate total CVD risk among adults aged ≥40 years, using the WHO/ISH risk charts alone and also to assess the effect of the inclusion of additional criteria on CVD risk.Methods: A community based cross sectional study was conducted in fifteen villages of Ludhiana district under rural health training centre of Department of Community Medicine, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab. Desired information was obtained using WHO STEPS survey (STEP wise approach to surveillance) from 324 adults aged ≥40 years. Anthropometric, clinical and laboratory measurements were also performed. WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for South East Asian region (SEAR-D) was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the subjects.Results: WHO/ISH risk prediction charts identified 16.0% of the subjects with high risk (≥20%) of developing a cardiovascular event. The study population showed higher prevalence of physical inactivity, obesity, abdominal obesity, hypertension and diabetes. Amongst high risk CVD group, maximum prevalence was of hypertension and high perceived stress level. However, the proportion of high CVD risk (≥20%) increased to 33.6% when subjects with blood pressure ≥160/100 mmHg and /or on hypertension medication were added as high risk.Conclusions: A substantial proportion of this community is at high risk of developing cardiovascular diseases.

scholarly journals A Seven-Gene Signature to Predict Prognosis of Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junli Wang ◽  
Qi Zhang ◽  
Fukang Shi ◽  
Dipesh Kumar Yadav ◽  
Zhengtao Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Radical Resection ◽  
Tissue Microarrays ◽  
Gene Signature ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Risk Scores

Purpose: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent malignant diseases worldwide and has a poor prognosis. Gene-based prognostic models have been reported to predict the overall survival of patients with HCC. Unfortunately, most of the genes used in earlier prognostic models lack prospective validation and, thus, cannot be used in clinical practice.Methods: Candidate genes were selected from GEPIA (Gene Expression Profiling Interactive Analysis), and their associations with patients’ survival were confirmed by RT-PCR using cDNA tissue microarrays established from patients with HCC after radical resection. A multivariate Cox proportion model was used to calculate the coefficient of corresponding gene. The expression of seven genes of interest (MKI67, AR, PLG, DNASE1L3, PTTG1, PPP1R1A, and TTR) with two reference genes was defined to calculate a risk score which determined groups of different risks.Results: Our risk scoring efficiently classified patients (n = 129) with HCC into a low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group. The three groups showed meaningful distinction of 3-year overall survival rate, i.e., 88.9, 74.5, and 20.6% for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively. The prognostic prediction model of risk scores was subsequently verified using an independent prospective cohort (n = 77) and showed high accuracy.Conclusion: Our seven-gene signature model performed excellent long-term prediction power and provided crucially guiding therapy for patients who are not a candidate for surgery.

scholarly journals Ovarian Cancer Risk Scores Based on Immune-Related Pseudogenes to Predict Overall Survival and Guide Immunotherapy and Chemotherapy

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jie Zhao ◽  
Rixiang Zhao ◽  
Xiaocen Wei ◽  
Xiaojing Jiang ◽  
Fan Su
Keyword(s):  
Ovarian Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
The Cancer Genome Atlas ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Ovarian Cancer Risk ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Background. Ovarian cancer (OC) is the top of the aggressive malignancies in females with a poor survival rate. However, the roles of immune-related pseudogenes (irPseus) in the immune infiltration of OC and the impact on overall survival (OS) have not been adequately studied. Therefore, this study aims to identify a novel model constructed by irPseus to predict OS in OC and to determine its significance in immunotherapy and chemotherapy. Methods. In this study, with the use of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) combined with Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx), 55 differentially expressed irPseus (DEirPseus) were identified. Then, we constructed 10 irPseus pairs with the help of univariate, Lasso, and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The prognostic performance of the model was determined and measured by the Kaplan–Meier curve, a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results. After dividing OC subjects into high- and low-risk subgroups via the cut-off point, it was revealed that subjects in the high-risk group had a shorter OS. The multivariate Cox regression performed between the model and multiple clinicopathological variables revealed that the model could effectively and independently predict the prognosis of OC. The prognostic model characterized infiltration by various kinds of immune cells and demonstrated the immunotherapy response of subjects with cytotoxic lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA4), anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1), and anti-PD-ligand 1 (PD-L1) therapy. A high risk score was related to a higher inhibitory concentration (IC50) for etoposide ( P = 0.0099 ) and mitomycin C ( P = 0.0013 ). Conclusion. It was the first study to identify a novel signature developed by DEirPseus pairs and verify the role in predicting OS, immune infiltrates, immunotherapy, and chemosensitivity. The irPseus are vital factors predicting the prognosis of OC and could act as a novel potential treatment target.

Impact of genomic risk scores on treatment decisions following radical prostatectomy in a prospective Medicare registry.

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 72-72
Author(s):  
John L. Gore ◽  
Darlene Dai ◽  
Robert Benjamin Den ◽  
Kasra Yousefi ◽  
Tiffany Le ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Radiation Therapy ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Radical Prostatectomy ◽  
Treatment Decisions ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Oncologic Outcomes ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
The Impact

72 Background: Prostate cancer patients and providers confront uncertainty as they consider adjuvant or salvage radiation therapy (ART, SRT) after radical prostatectomy (RP). We prospectively evaluated the impact of the Decipher RP test, which predicts metastasis risk after RP, on decision-making for postoperative radiation therapy. Methods: Between October 2016 and May 2017, 1,319 patients treated with RP and considering ART or SRT were enrolled into a Medicare Certification and Training Registry (CTR). Providers submitted a management recommendation based on initial clinical and pathology findings prior to obtaining the Decipher RP test and again upon receiving test results. Only Medicare patients that met the Local Coverage Determination inclusion criteria (i.e., non-organ confined prostate cancer or positive margins or rising PSA) and whose provider was certified in the CTR registry were included in the analysis. Results: Based on clinical variables alone, treatment was recommended for 26% of adjuvant and 19% of salvage patients. Obtaining a Decipher score, changed treatment recommendations in 34% (95% CI 30-39%) and 28% (95% CI 19-38%) of men considering adjuvant or salvage therapy respectively. Among men considering ART, 9% of Decipher low risk patients and 45% of Decipher high-risk patients were recommended treatment. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that – independent of pathology risk factors, a high-risk Decipher score was associated with an odds ratio of 7.3 (95% CI 3.9-14.2 p < 0.001) in the adjuvant and 5.5 (95% CI, 1.3-27.8, p = 0.026) in the salvage setting. Conclusions: A prospective CTR demonstrated that use of Decipher resulted in significant changes in treatment decisions for Medicare beneficiaries with PCa considering adjuvant and salvage therapies. Ongoing prospective studies aim at determining how increased use of therapy in men with high Decipher risk impacts oncologic outcomes and whether decreased use in Decipher low risk individuals improves health related quality of life without harming patient survival.

Abstract MP53: The Impact of the Obesity Epidemic on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores: The CARDIA Study

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 131 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Duke Appiah ◽  
Pamela J Schreiner ◽  
Raegan W Durant ◽  
Sharina D Person ◽  
Catarina I Kiefe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Obesity Epidemic ◽  
Ascvd Risk ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has decreased over recent decades, in part, due to changes in the prevalence of risk factors. However, few studies have explored the impact of the obesity epidemic on CVD risk prediction in young adults. Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that BMI trends are positively associated with changes in 10-year AHA/ACC atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores from young adulthood to middle age beyond the effect of other CVD risk factors included in the scores (age, sex, race, lipids, blood pressure, hypertension medication, diabetes, smoking). METHODS: Data were obtained from 2437 black and white men and women aged 18-30 years at baseline (1985-1986) enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study with follow-up exams at year 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (ages 43-55 years). Repeated-measures regression was used to model the association between ASCVD risk scores and time-varying BMI measures. RESULTS: The average 10-year ASCVD risk increased from 0.6% at baseline (mean age: 25.3) to 3.9% at year 25 (mean age: 50.3) with the change higher for men (blacks: 1.0 to 8.2%, whites: 0.3 to 4.6%) than women (blacks: 0.5 to 3.6%, whites: 1.2 to 1.4%). The overall prevalence of obesity at baseline and year 25 was 10% and 42% respectively. BMI trends were positively associated with 10-year change in ASCVD risk scores (0.12% per 1 kg/m2 increase, p<0.001). BMI adjustment minimally reduced risk scores trends with the greatest change between unadjusted and adjusted risk scores observed among black women (0.1 to 3.0%) (Figures A and B). CONCLUSION: In young adults, BMI trends are associated positively with 10-year changes in ASCVD risk independent of other risk factors. This adds to the evidence that weight control in early adulthood is an important predictor of lower future CVD risk.

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