scholarly journals Triage system performance: consistency and accuracy in the emergency centre

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 94-99
Author(s):  
Enrico Dippenaar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Triage System ◽  
Perfect System ◽  
Conscious Decision ◽  
Made In

Triage systems have evolved over recent times with the use of tiered acuity to achieve a balance between patient need and resource availability. Triage is a way to sort patients based on acuity, irrespective of the setting, and whether by telephone, in the prehospital environment or in hospital. The growth of the paramedic profession means that paramedics are now working in emergency centres and having to contend with the concept of triage in this setting. The nature of emergency centres and the variety of patient presentations makes it nearly impossible to have a perfect system that is both consistent and accurate. Paramedics, as decision makers, should understand the underlying concepts of what makes a triage system perform well so best practice can be adopted with specific goals in mind. There is a patient-centred focus to do the most for the most at any given time and to ensure that resources are aligned with the needs of patients. It is vital to monitor a triage system's performance so that improvements or adjustments can be made in response to patient population needs over time. This commentary focuses on the main principles of triage system performance measures and what factors should be taken into consideration during clinical practice. Highlighting the concepts of triage reliability, validity and decision-making should help paramedics to understand the importance of conscious decision-making practice.

A Stochastic Approach to Risk Management and Decision Making in Defined Benefit Pension Schemes

2003 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 493-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Haberman ◽  
C. Day ◽  
D. Fogarty ◽  
M. Z. Khorasanee ◽  
M. McWhirter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Free Variable ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Allocation Decisions ◽  
Made In

ABSTRACTThe trustees and sponsors of defined benefit schemes rely on the advice of the Scheme Actuary to make important decisions concerning the funding of the scheme, the investment of its assets, and the use of surplus assets to improve benefits. These decisions have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty about financial and demographic factors that will affect the future experience of the scheme and its success in meeting various objectives.The traditional actuarial valuation combined with actuarial judgement has played an important role in guiding decision making; but we argue that stochastic methods can add value in certain crucial areas, in particular the financial risk management of defined benefit schemes. Rather than dealing with risk by incorporating margins in the valuation basis, a stochastic approach allows the actuary to evaluate specific and quantifiable risk and performance measures for alternative funding and investment strategies.This paper recommends a framework that, when combined with a suitable stochastic model, measures the risks inherent in contribution rate and asset allocation decisions, allowing better decisions to be made. In doing this, we suggest and apply various risk and performance measures that may be thought appropriate, although our intention is to illustrate their use rather than prescribe them as objective standards. The framework provides the means to explore the trade-offs involved in possible contribution and asset allocation decisions, and points to decision strategies expected to give improved outcomes for the same level of risk. A feature of the approach that marks it out from current asset/liability techniques is that it examines the funding and investment decisions together. It does not derive a contribution rate in the traditional way, but leaves this as free variable, in the same way that the investment decision is taken to be a free variable. Another distinctive feature of our framework is that it is based on projection rather than on valuation, involving stochastic simulation of the experience of the scheme over a time horizon reflecting the concerns of the trustees and the sponsoring employer.The paper provides a case study (based on a model final salary pension scheme) showing the advantages of the framework, and goes on to explain how the results may practically be communicated to trustees and scheme sponsors.

D Minus Months: Strategic Planning for Weather-Sensitive Decisions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva D. Regnier ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Current State ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Made In

General Eisenhower’s decisions to postpone and, one day later, to launch the “D-Day” invasion of Normandy are a gripping illustration of sequential decisions under uncertainty, suitable for any introductory decision analysis class. They’re also the archetypal example of weather-sensitive decision making using a forecast. This paper develops a framework for analyzing weather-sensitive decisions with a focus on the less-familiar strategic decisions that determine how forecasts are produced and what operational alternatives are available so that decision makers can extract value from forecasts. We tell the story of the decisions made in the months before D-Day regarding how to set up the forecasting process and the myriad decisions implicating nation-level resources that prepared Allied forces not just to invade, but to hold open that decision until the last possible hour so that Eisenhower and his staff could use the critical forecasts. Finally, we overview the current state of the weather-forecasting enterprise, the current challenges of interest to decision analysts, and what this means for decision analysts seeking opportunities to help the weather enterprise improve forecasts and to help operational decision makers extract more value from modern weather forecasts.

The limits of evidence-based anti-bribery law

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Systematic Research ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Business Regulation

Evidence-based regulation is a term of art that refers to the process of making decisions about regulation based on evidence generated through systematic research. There is increasing pressure to treat evidence-based regulation as a global best practice, including in the area of anti-bribery law. Too little attention has been paid to the fact that under certain conditions evidence-based regulation is likely to be a less appealing method of decision making than the alternative – namely, relying on judgment. Those conditions are: it is difficult to collect data on either interventions or outcomes; accurate causal inferences are difficult to draw; there is little warrant for believing that the same causal relationships will apply in a new context; or the decision makers in question lack the capacity to undertake one of these tasks. These conditions are likely to be present in complex, transnational, decentralized, and dynamic forms of business regulation such as the global anti-bribery regime.

Rationality and risk-taking in Russia’s first Chechen War: toward a theory of cognitive realism

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-210
Author(s):  
Jason J. Morrissette
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Adequate Explanation ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Cognitive Realism ◽  
Made In

This article seeks to establish a better scholarly understanding of former Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s decision to launch an ill-planned, risky, and ultimately disastrous invasion of the breakaway republic of Chechnya in 1994. Examining the decision-making environment that led up to the invasion, I conclude that while neorealism provides an adequate explanation for Yeltsin’s motives in this case, the decisions that he made in pursuit of these goals do not reflect the logic of rational utility maximization commonly associated with neorealist theory. Instead, I suggest that prospect theory – based on the idea that decision-makers tend to be risk averse when confronted with choices between gains while risk acceptant when confronted with losses – offers significantly more explanatory insight in this case. Thus, the article offers further support for an alternative theoretical approach to international relations that some scholars have termed ‘cognitive realism’, incorporating neorealist motives with a more empirically accurate perspective on the decision-making processes undertaken in pursuit of these motives.

Unraveling the Complexities of Decision Making in Face-to-Face Groups: A Contextual Analysis of Plea-Bargained Sentences

1984 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 912-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter F. Nardulli ◽  
Roy B. Flemming ◽  
James Eisenstein
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Contextual Analysis ◽  
Criminal Case ◽  
Multilevel Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Made In

This article uses a variety of multilevel data collected from a nine-county study of felony courts to examine the joint effects of contextual and individual level (sociopolitical characteristics of decision workers) upon decisions made in face-to-face groups. The research finds that although the sociopolitical characteristics of decision makers (attitudes toward punishment, Machiavellianism, and operating styles) made a difference in the outcome of interactions, their role could not be accessed independent of the contextual factors surrounding the interactions. Some of the most important contextual factors were the kind of criminal case being handled, prosecutor office policies restricting discretion, and the configuration of attributes in the group handling the case. Although the data are wholly derived from the criminal court setting, the implications of the findings for studying decision making in other face-to-face groups are developed.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah ◽  
Rusdinal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decisions, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision-making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah ◽  
Rusdinal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decision, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing

scholarly journals Towards an Integrated Biodiversity Technology Program Supporting Transparent Decision Making in Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantal Huijbers ◽  
Sarah Richmond ◽  
Lee Belbin ◽  
Hamish Holewa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Ecological Model ◽  
Expert Panel ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Technology Program ◽  
Online Portal ◽  
Practice Methods

Effective management of our natural world under current and future conditions requires efficient, collaborative and complementary planning and decision-making processes with clear lines of accountability. While there has been significant progress in establishing national databases for the management of species observation data, these only represent samples of a species' total distribution. The need and challenge therefore is to model these point-based observation data to obtain estimates or projections of the total range and distribution of the species. Such Species Distribution Models (SDMs), also known as Environmental Niche Models (ENMs), and the geographic data (or “maps”) they generate, provide vital information needed by governments at all levels to meet various policy and statutory responsibilities and obligations. SDMs quantify the response of species occurrence to environmental conditions described by variables such as climate, substrate, productivity and vegetation. The outcomes of an SDM can be used to identify locations and regions with potentially suitable environmental conditions for a species, as well as assess how species may respond to projected future climate changes or habitat loss. While SDMs are widely used in many decision- and policy-making programs, investment in species distribution information has been fragmented and limited. In Australia, three different government departments joined forces with the Atlas of Living Australia and the Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory to develop a standard framework for modelling threatened species distributions for use in policy and environmental decision-making. The pilot program that will be conducted throughout 2019 includes three complementary pillars: An expert panel with both researchers and government practitioners who will review current SDM practices used in government and develop a set of best-practice methods. A technology program that includes the development of a new modelling platform that implements the best-practice methods for transparent and reproducible SDMs for decision making as established by the expert panel. Additionally, there will be an online portal for publishing ecological model outputs in a searchable catalogue to enhance cross-jurisdiction collaborations. Establishment of a training and skill development program to upskill decision makers using the new tools and methodology in practice. An expert panel with both researchers and government practitioners who will review current SDM practices used in government and develop a set of best-practice methods. A technology program that includes the development of a new modelling platform that implements the best-practice methods for transparent and reproducible SDMs for decision making as established by the expert panel. Additionally, there will be an online portal for publishing ecological model outputs in a searchable catalogue to enhance cross-jurisdiction collaborations. Establishment of a training and skill development program to upskill decision makers using the new tools and methodology in practice. This presentation will showcase the outcomes of this program and highlight how digital infrastructure can enhance decision making. In this case specifically, the collaboration across government departments ensures a) a consistent approach across jurisdictions, b) an increase in model quality, thereby leading to a decrease in unnecessary survey or consultation efforts, c) an increase in suitability, robustness and reproducibility of SDMs, and d) increased advocacy and coordination in national programs and resources.

Patterns of Errors Shown by Experienced Navy Combat Information Center Teams

1995 ◽  
Vol 39 (9) ◽  
pp. 454-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan G. Hutchins ◽  
Daniel P. Westra
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Human System ◽  
Incident Investigation ◽  
Information Center ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Tactical Decision ◽  
Psychology Literature

The Tactical Decision Making Under Stress program is being conducted to apply recent developments in decision theory and human-system interaction technology to the design of a decision support system for enhancing tactical decision making under highly complex conditions. Topics to be discussed include: (1) a description of the difficult tasks identified for analysis; (2) the general methodological approach; (3) development of the performance measures and issues related to their development; (4) discussion of the modification and extension of the TapRoot® Incident Investigation System; and (5) discussion of the types of errors made by decision makers and interpretations for the cause of these errors based in the cognitive psychology literature.

Dementia, Healthcare Decision Making, and Disability Law

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (S4) ◽  
pp. 25-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan S. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Healthcare Decision ◽  
Healthcare Decision Making ◽  
Moderate Dementia ◽  
Disability Law ◽  
Surrogate Decision Makers ◽  
Surrogate Decision ◽  
Alternative Decision ◽  
Made In

Persons with dementia often prefer to participate in decisions about their health care, but may be prevented from doing so because healthcare decision-making law facilitates use of advance directives or surrogate decision makers for persons with decisional impairments such as dementia. Federal and state disability law provide alternative decision-making models that do not prevent persons with mild to moderate dementia from making their own healthcare decisions at the time the decision needs to be made. In order to better promote autonomy and wellbeing, persons with dementia should be accommodated and supported so they can make their own healthcare decisions.

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