scholarly journals Modeling duration of overtaking between non-motorized vehicles: A nonparametric survival analysis based approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244883
Author(s):  
Yan Liu ◽  
Chuanyun Fu ◽  
Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Urban City ◽  
Safety Research ◽  
The One ◽  
Motorized Vehicles ◽  
Load State

The use of non-motorized vehicles in urban city has improved the convenience of short-distance travel and reduced traffic pollution. However, the overtaking behaviour of non-motorized vehicles impacts traffic safety and efficiency significantly. The objective of this study is to model the durations of overtaking behaviour in the non-motorized vehicle exclusive lane. A total of 3010 overtaking events of non-motorized vehicles were extracted from two locations in Chengdu, China. The nonparametric survival analysis was conducted to model the overtaking duration of non-motorized vehicles. The categorical variables that significantly influence the overtaking duration were examined by the Log-rank test. The results show that the overtaking durations of female riders is longer than that of male riders. It takes longer for electrical bikes to complete overtaking than conventional bikes. When the non-motorized vehicle is under the load state (i.e. passengers or goods on the non-motorized vehicle), the overtaking behaviour takes more time than the un-load state. Moreover, it takes less time to overtake the non-motorized vehicle with load than to overtake the one without load. When there is a wrong-way driving phenomenon or under higher traffic volume, the duration is longer compared to the normal traffic and lower traffic volume conditions. The findings of this study attempt to provide a more profound understanding of non-motorized vehicles overtaking behaviour under different traffic conditions and give insights to the safety research of non-motorized vehicles.

scholarly journals COVID Lockdowns, Social Distancing, and Fatal Car Crashes: More Deaths on Hobbesian Highways?

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 238-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall W. Meyer
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
World War ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Usa

Abstract Research Question What happened to US traffic safety during the first US COVID-19 lockdown, and why was the pattern the opposite of that observed in previous sudden declines of traffic volume? Data National and local statistics on US traffic volume, traffic fatalities, injury accidents, speeding violations, running of stop signs, and other indicators of vehicular driving behavior, both in 2020 and in previous US economic recessions affecting the volume of road traffic. Methods Comparative analysis of the similarities and differences between the data for the COVID-19 lockdown in parts of the USA in March 2020 and similar data for the 2008–2009 global economic crisis, as well as other US cases of major reductions in traffic volume. Findings The volume of traffic contracted sharply once a COVID-19 national emergency was declared and most states issued stay-at-home orders, but motor vehicle fatality rates, injury accidents, and speeding violations went up, and remained elevated even as traffic began returning toward normal. This pattern does not fit post-World War II recessions where fatality rates declined with the volume of traffic nor does the 2020 pattern match the pattern during World War II when traffic dropped substantially with little change in motor vehicle fatality rates. Conclusions The findings are consistent with a theory of social distancing on highways undermining compliance with social norms, a social cost of COVID which, if not corrected, poses potential long-term increases in non-compliance and dangerous driving.

scholarly journals AB0213 SAVING GLUCOCORTICOIDS AFTER RITUXIMAB TREATMENT IN PATIENTS WITH REUMATOID ARTHRITIS. ANALYSIS OF A COMMON CLINICAL PRACTICE COHORT

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1132.3-1133
Author(s):  
G. Jurado Quijano ◽  
L. Fernández de la Fuente Bursón ◽  
B. Hernández-Cruz ◽  
P. Muñoz Reinoso ◽  
V. Merino Bohóquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rates ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Disease Modifying Drugs ◽  
Secondary Failure ◽  
Daily Dose ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Common Clinical Practice

Background:Rituximab (RTX) is a monoclonal antibody against the CD20 B cell antigen that has been used successfully in recent years for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is an effective drug that reaches survival rates of 60% at 5 years of treatment as reflected in the British experience. However, survival in Spanish patients is unknown.Objectives:To study the survival of RTX treatment and the characteristics of patients with RA treated with the drug since its commercialization in Spain.Methods:Observational, retrospective and analytical study of a cohort of patients with RA treated with at least one dose of RTX. We reviewed the medical records of all patients with RA from January 2007 to June 2017. A total of 178 previous defined variables were collected, highlighting data about treatment (use of RTX, associated conventional synthetic disease modifying drugs [FAMEsc], doses of corticosteroids [GC] used) and activity indices. Descriptive statistics were performed (median and the 25th and 75th percentiles are shown). The comparative analysis was done with χ2 and U of Mann Whitney for categorical variables and paired sign rank test or Student’s t for continuous. Survival Kaplan Mayer curves were constructed. The study was carried out in accordance with the standards of our Clinical Research Ethics Committee.Results:A total of 54 patients were analyzed. 74% (n = 40) of them were women, the age was 61.2 years (51.0 - 67.4). 74% (n = 40) presented some type of relevant comorbidity. Its RA was FR + in 96% (n = 52) and ACCP + in 78% (n = 42) of the cases, with an evolution time of 9.3 years (3.5-19, 2), and with radiographic erosions in up to 63% (n = 34). At the time of the start of the RTX, 100% of the patients (n = 54) received some FAMEsc, and 33 (61%) were treated with prednisone; the daily dose of prednisone was 9 (6-12) mg. The baseline DAS28-VSG was 5 (4.1 - 6.0). The duration of the follow-up was 56.6 (29.3-92.1) months. Patients received a mean of 5 (1-6) cycles of RTX at a dose of 1000 mg on days 0 and 15 in most cases. The final DAS28-VSG was 2.6 (2.1 - 4.0), p = 0.00001 compared to baseline. The delta between baseline and final DAS was -2.36 (-0.55 - -3.1). At the end of the RTX treatment, the EULAR response rate was good in 64% (n = 25), reaching remission in 17 (31%) of the patients, and moderate response in 21% (n = 8) of them (Figure 1). Only 2 (4%) patients were treated with GCC at the end of the follow-up, p<0,00001 compared to baseline. The daily dose of PDN at the end of follow-up was 6 mg in a case and 12 mg in the other, p=00001 compared to baseline. At the end of the follow-up 24%of the patients (n = 13) changed or discontinued the drug: 9 changed due to secondary failure, 2 suspended due to adverse events, 1 due to death due to prior neoplastic process and 1 due to complete disease remission. Survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 years was 92%, 92%, 82% 78%, 75%, 75% and 65% respectively; with a mean survival rate of 90 months (Figure 1).Conclusion:The results of our analysis show that patients with RA undergoing RTX treatment have adequate control of disease activity and drug survival rates, like published data. RTX treatment allowed stopped GCC treatment in 31 cases (90%).References:[1]Oldroyd AGS, et al. Rheumatology (Oxford). 2018 Jun 1;57(6):1089-1096.Disclosure of Interests:Gonzalo Jurado Quijano: None declared, Lola Fernández de la Fuente Bursón: None declared, Blanca Hernández-Cruz Speakers bureau: Sociedad Española de Reumatología, Abbvie, Roche, Bristol, MSD, Lilly, Pfizer, Amgen, Sanofi, Consultant of: Abbvie, Lilly, Sanofi, STADA, UCB, Amgen, Grant/research support from: Fundación para la Investigación Sevilla, Junta de Andalucía, Fundación Andaluza de Reumatología, Paloma Muñoz Reinoso: None declared, Vicente Merino Bohóquez: None declared, José Javier Pérez Venegas: None declared

scholarly journals Epilepsy as a Comorbidity in Polymyositis and Dermatomyositis—A Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 3983
Author(s):  
Ella Nissan ◽  
Abdulla Watad ◽  
Arnon D. Cohen ◽  
Kassem Sharif ◽  
Johnatan Nissan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Continuous Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional

Polymyositis (PM) and dermatomyositis (DM) are autoimmune-mediated multisystemic myopathies, characterized mainly by proximal muscle weakness. A connection between epilepsy and PM/DM has not been reported previously. Our study aim is to evaluate this association. A case–control study was conducted, enrolling a total of 12,278 patients with 2085 cases (17.0%) and 10,193 subjects in the control group (83.0%). Student’s t-test was used to evaluate continuous variables, while the chi-square test was applied for the distribution of categorical variables. Log-rank test, Kaplan–Meier curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards method were performed for the analysis regarding survival. Of the studied 2085 cases, 1475 subjects (70.7%) were diagnosed with DM, and 610 patients (29.3%) with PM. Participants enrolled as cases had a significantly higher rate of epilepsy (n = 48 [2.3%]) as compared to controls (n = 141 [1.4%], p < 0.0005). Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, PM was found only to be significantly associated with epilepsy (OR 2.2 [95%CI 1.36 to 3.55], p = 0.0014), whereas a non-significant positive trend was noted in DM (OR 1.51 [95%CI 0.99 to 2.30], p = 0.0547). Our data suggest that PM is associated with a higher rate of epilepsy compared to controls. Physicians should be aware of this comorbidity in patients with immune-mediated myopathies.

scholarly journals Age is not the only risk factor in COVID-19: the role of comorbidities and of long staying in residential care homes

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D’ascanio ◽  
M. Innammorato ◽  
L. Pasquariello ◽  
D. Pizzirusso ◽  
G. Guerrieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Residential Care ◽  
Pneumonia Severity Index ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Very Elderly ◽  
Arterial Blood

Abstract Background The actual SARS-CoV-2 outbreak caused a highly transmissible disease with a tremendous impact on elderly people. So far, few studies focused on very elderly patients (over 80 years old). In this study we examined the clinical presentation and the outcome of the disease in this group of patients, admitted to our Hospital in Rome. Methods This is a single-center, retrospective study performed in the Sant’Andrea University Hospital of Rome. We included patients older than 65 years of age with a diagnosis of COVID-19, from March 2020 to May 2020, divided in two groups according to their age (Elderly: 65–80 years old; Very Elderly > 80 years old). Data extracted from the each patient record included age, sex, comorbidities, symptoms at onset, the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), the ratio of the partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood (PaO2) to the inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2) (P/F) on admission, laboratory tests, radiological findings on computer tomography (CT), length of hospital stay (LOS), mortality rate and the viral shedding. The differences between the two groups were analyzed by the Fisher’s exact test or the Wilcoxon signed-rank test for categorical variables and the Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. To assess significance among multiple groups of factors, we used the Bonferroni correction. The survival time was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method and Log Rank Test. Univariate and Multivariate logistic regression were performed to estimate associations between age, comorbidities, provenance from long-stay residential care homes (LSRCH) s and clinical outcomes. Results We found that Very Elderly patients had an increased mortality rate, also due to the frequent occurrence of multiple comorbidities. Moreover, we found that patients coming from LSRCHs appeared to be highly susceptible and vulnerable to develop severe manifestations of the disease. Conclusion We demonstrate that there were considerable differences between Elderly and Very Elderly patients in terms of inflammatory activity, severity of disease, adverse clinical outcomes. To establish a correct risk stratification, comorbidities and information about provenience from LSRCHs should be considered.

scholarly journals Polymorphism rs368234815 of interferon lambda 4 gene and spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus in haemodialysis patients: a case-control study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicja E. Grzegorzewska ◽  
Adrianna Mostowska ◽  
Monika K. Świderska ◽  
Wojciech Marcinkowski ◽  
Ireneusz Stolarek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Cancer Susceptibility ◽  
Melting Curve ◽  
Hcv Infection ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Melting Curve Analysis ◽  
Hcv Rna ◽  
Spontaneous Clearance ◽  
Polymorphism Analysis ◽  
Spontaneous Hcv Clearance

Abstract Background In non-uremic subjects, IFNL4 rs368234815 predicts HCV clearance. We investigated whether rs368234815 is associated with spontaneous HCV clearance in haemodialysis patients and whether it is a stronger predictor of HCV resolution than the IFNL polymorphisms already associated with HCV clearance in dialysis subjects. We also evaluated an association of rs368234815 with patients` survival and alterations in transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) caused by IFNL polymorphisms. Methods Among 161 haemodialysis patients with positive anti-HCV antibodies, 68 (42.2%) spontaneously resolved HCV infection, whereas 93 remained HCV RNA positive. Patients were tested for near IFNL3 rs12980275, IFNL3 rs4803217, IFNL4 rs12979860, IFNL4 rs368234815, and near IFNL4 rs8099917. IFNL4 rs368234815 polymorphism (TT/TT, ΔG/TT, ΔG/ΔG) was genotyped by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis; other IFNL polymorphisms - by high resolution melting curve analysis. We used the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test for survival analysis. In silico analysis included the use of ENCODE TFBS ChIP-seq data, HOCOMOCO, JASPAR CORE, and CIS-BP databases, and FIMO software. Results The probability (OR, 95%CI, P) of spontaneous HCV clearance for rs368234815 TT/TT patients was higher than for the ΔG allele carriers (2.63, 1.38–5.04, 0.003). This probability for other major homozygotes varied between 2.80, 1.45–5.43, 0.002 for rs12980275 and 2.44, 1.27–4.69, 0.007 for rs12979860. In the additive model, rs368234815 TT/TT was the strongest predictor of HCV clearance (6.38, 1.69–24.2, 0.003). Survival analysis suggested an association of the ΔG allele with mortality due to neoplasms (log-rank P = 0.005). The rs368234815 ∆G allele caused TFBS removal for PLAGL1. Conclusions In haemodialysis patients, the association of rs368234815 with the spontaneous HCV clearance is better than that documented for other IFNL3/IFNL4 polymorphisms only in the additive mode of inheritance. However, identifying the homozygosity in the variant ∆G allele of rs368234815 means a more potent prediction of persistent HCV infection in haemodialysis subjects that we observe in the case of the variant homozygosity of other tested IFNL3/IFNL4 polymorphisms. Removal of PLAGL1 TFBS in subjects harbouring the rs368234815 ∆G allele may contribute to cancer susceptibility. The association of rs368234815 with cancer-related mortality needs further studies in HCV-exposed subjects.

MO153RENAL FUNCTIONS OUTCOME IN METASTATIC NON SMALL LUNG CARCINOMA PATIENTS: THE RISK OF AKI IN FIRST LINE THERAPY

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Trevisani ◽  
Federico Di Marco ◽  
Francesco Fiorio ◽  
Monica Cattaneo ◽  
Erika Rijavec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Immune Checkpoint ◽  
Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors ◽  
Checkpoint Inhibitors ◽  
Combined Therapy ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
First Line ◽  
Metastatic Nsclc ◽  
Platinum Based Chemotherapy

Abstract Background and Aims The optimal use of immune and target therapies, the optimal use of standard chemotherapy (CT) is of paramount importance, especially for patients affected by chronic kidney disease (CKD) who require dose adjustment according to the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to avoid acute kidney injury (AKI) establishment. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and platinum-based chemotherapy (CT) are options for the palliative treatment of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Recently, CT in combination with immune-checkpoint inhibitors has become the treatment of choice for this setting of patients. Therefore, it is fundamental to investigate the potential nephrotoxic effects of both treatments and their potential additive effects on renal function. Aim of our study was to compare the nephrotoxic effect of both ICIs and CT (cisplatin and carboplatin-based) in a consecutive cohort of patients affected by metastatic NSCLC. Method A consecutive cohort of 126 patients treated in first-line for NSLCL was enrolled in a single tertiary Hospital between 2018 and 2020. Inclusion criteria were: age (&gt; 18 years old), eGFR (&gt; 15 ml/min/1.73), histological diagnosis of metastatic NSCLC. Each patient underwent immunotherapy or CT according to clinical conditions, comorbidities and programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression status. eGFR (using CKD-EPI formula 2009) was detected at baseline and after each cycle of immunotherapy or CT (using cisplatin or carboplatin) in order to determine the correct renal status using the K-DIGO 2012 guidelines for AKI stages and CKD classes. Pts were subdivided into CKD categories G according to their eGFR values before and after the treatment. AKI onset was evaluated by rise in creatine levels according to K-DIGO criteria. Clinical stage according to cTNM (AJCC TNM system-2019) was collected at baseline before the first treatment. Comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, blood hypertension, overweight and obesity) were also included. Comparison between numerical variables was performed using linear regressions; between groups using Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test for numerical variables and Pearson’s Chi square test for categorical variables. Log rank test was used to test differences between groups in terms of AKI onset during the therapy. Results Clinical and pathological characteristics are reported in table 1. From the analysis, no significative differences were detected between Immunotherapy and CT group for age, gender, basal serum creatinine, basal eGFR, basal BMI, diagnosis of diabetes, hypertension, basal CKD G group or overall AKI onset. Treatment cycles were significantly different between the two groups (p&lt;0.001) with a short median number of cycles for the CT group. No significative difference in terms of decay of eGFR calculated as final-basal values was detected (p=0.8). AKI onset over cycles was significantly different between the two groups (p=0.02), observing a higher risk of developing earlier AKI for CT group (cisplatin or carboplatin) (13,9%) with respect to immunotherapy (7,4%) (figure 1 and 2). Conclusion Our study highlights that both cisplatin and carboplatin-based CT displays an augmented incidence of AKI development after a lower number of therapy cycles in respect of immunotherapy. The nephrotoxic effects of combined therapy for NSLCL should be always evaluated by nephrologist during the treatment of NSLCL patients to avoid an augmented risk of AKI derived from the combination of immunotherapy and CT in first line.

Machine Learning and statistic predictive modeling for road traffic flow

2021 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Nadia Slimani ◽  
Ilham Slimani ◽  
Nawal Sbiti ◽  
Mustapha Amghar
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Important Place ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Absolute Relative Error ◽  
History Of ◽  
The One ◽  
Motorized Vehicles

Traffic forecasting is a research topic debated by several researchers affiliated to a range of disciplines. It is becoming increasingly important given the growth of motorized vehicles on the one hand, and the scarcity of lands for new transportation infrastructure on the other. Indeed, in the context of smart cities and with the uninterrupted increase of the number of vehicles, road congestion is taking up an important place in research. In this context, the ability to provide highly accurate traffic forecasts is of fundamental importance to manage traffic, especially in the context of smart cities. This work is in line with this perspective and aims to solve this problem. The proposed methodology plans to forecast day-by-day traffic stream using three different models: the Multilayer Perceptron of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the Support Machine Regression (SMOreg). Using those three models, the forecast is realized based on a history of real traffic data recorded on a road section over 42 months. Besides, a recognized traffic manager in Morocco provides this dataset; the performance is then tested based on predefined criteria. From the experiment results, it is clear that the proposed ANN model achieves highest prediction accuracy with the lowest absolute relative error of 0.57%.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION INTO TRAFFIC FLOWS ON HIGH INTENSITY STREETS OF VILNIUS CITY

Transport ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Žiliūtė ◽  
Alfredas Laurinavičius ◽  
Audrius Vaitkus
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Capital City ◽  
State Enterprise ◽  
Traffic Intensity ◽  
Road Maintenance ◽  
Traffic Flows ◽  
The Road ◽  
Maintenance Program ◽  
Road Research Laboratory

The measurements and analysis of traffic intensity were performed in the capital city – Vilnius, the largest urban area in Lithuania. Vilnius is a centre of business, industry and tourism, and therefore traffic intensity remains the highest in this part of the country. The intensity of vehicle traffic is not only generally calculated but also simultaneously classified which means is divided predefining vehicles into beforehand established categories. Data on traffic flows are used in a road maintenance program for calculating and assessing air pollution, ensuring traffic safety, regulating traffic flows etc. The article presents the methods for measuring traffic intensity which are and were used for calculating traffic intensity not only in the streets of Vilnius but also across Lithuania. Data on vehicle intensity and classification are collected either using technologies (loop and tube detectors, counters and video detectors) or expressing them visually. The article presents the dynamics of changes in the traffic volume on the roads of Lithuania for the period 2000–2009. Also, this article examines traffic intensity of all transport means, including trucks in the permanent traffic volume measuring stations that were installed near the roads in Vilnius zone (data on traffic for the period 2005–2009) and the streets of Vilnius city (data on traffic for the period 2007–2009). Data on traffic intensity were obtained by the Road Research Laboratory of the Road Department of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University in cooperation with the State Enterprise Transport and Road Research Institute (TRRI).

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