Assessment of climate change and prospective analysis on shallow lakes. Las Encadenadas del Oeste watershed, Buenos Aires - Argentina

The Future ◽

Climate Station ◽

Basin Area

The earth’s ecosystem is fragile, and sometimes even small changes in the climate can have impacts on the environment and society. Changes in temperature and precipitation can cause numerous feedbacks that effect the ecosystem of the whole Earth. Many studies hold that the temperature will rise in some places, while other areas will experience a cooling in annual mean temperatures. The study area is famous for its many ponds. These ecosystems will be both physically, biologically, and chemically affected by climate change and its feedbacks. Las Encadenadas del Oeste consists of seven shallow lakes (Epecuen, La Paraguaya, Venado, Del Monte, Cochico, Alsina, and Inchauspe) of various depths and sizes is a closed river basin system aligned in an east-west direction. The objectives of this work are to demonstrate the change in shallow lake size over a period of 20 years and to relate these changes to temperature and precipitation over the basin area for the same period. It is also intended to examine future temperature and precipitation scenarios in the study area. Maximum and minimum temperature data and precipitation data was retrieved from a climate station in Carhue. A multiple regression analysis was performed and five models and the shallow lake area were compared. The water levels in the shallow lakes will continue to fluctuate in the future as precipitation and temperature varies. Temperatures will increase quickly in the area; and around a 3 ºC change is expected before 2099. Only small variations in the temperatures have previously caused the lake to change in size. Precipitation patterns show a high variation, but the change is very small. Minimum temperature, which is already the most significant factor according to the statistical analysis, will in the future be an even more important factor if changes occur.

The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

Geoscience Letters ◽

10.1186/s40562-021-00191-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hendri Irwandi ◽

Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽

Terry Mart

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Human Activities ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Water Levels ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Continuous Increase ◽

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

Lake water level response to drought in a lake-rich region explained by lake and landscape characteristics

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjfas-2019-0270 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 77 (11) ◽

pp. 1836-1845

Author(s):

K. Martin Perales ◽

Catherine L. Hein ◽

Noah R. Lottig ◽

M. Jake Vander Zanden

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Lake Water ◽

Water Levels ◽

Water Level Fluctuations ◽

Lake Area ◽

Lake Water Level ◽

Landscape Characteristics ◽

Lake Ecology ◽

Coarse Woody Habitat

Climate change is altering hydrologic regimes, with implications for lake water levels. While lakes within lake districts experience the same climate, lakes may exhibit differential climate vulnerability regarding water level response to drought. We took advantage of a recent drought (∼2005–2010) and estimated changes in lake area, water level, and shoreline position on 47 lakes in northern Wisconsin using high-resolution orthoimagery and hypsographic curves. We developed a model predicting water level response to drought to identify characteristics of the most vulnerable lakes in the region, which indicated that low-conductivity seepage lakes found high in the landscape, with little surrounding wetland and highly permeable soils, showed the greatest water level declines. To explore potential changes in the littoral zone, we estimated coarse woody habitat (CWH) loss during the drought and found that drainage lakes lost 0.8% CWH while seepage lakes were disproportionately impacted, with a mean loss of 40% CWH. Characterizing how lakes and lake districts respond to drought will further our understanding of how climate change may alter lake ecology via water level fluctuations.

Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduousboreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x05-185 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 35 (11) ◽

pp. 2709-2718 ◽

Cited By ~ 71

Author(s):

D Goldblum ◽

L S Rigg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Boreal Forest ◽

Sugar Maple ◽

White Spruce ◽

Balsam Fir ◽

Northern Limit ◽

Monthly Temperature ◽

The Future ◽

Forest Ecotone

We consider the implications of climate change on the future of the three dominant forest species, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), at the deciduousboreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada. Our analysis is based on individual species responses to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in light of modeled (general circulation model) monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. We then consider the tree species sensitivity to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period. Sugar maple, located at its northern limit in the study area, shows the greatest potential for increased growth rates under the predicted warming and altered precipitation regime. White spruce is likely to benefit less, while the understory dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming.

Future Climate Change Renders Unsuitable Conditions for Paramo Ecosystems in Colombia

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12208373 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (20) ◽

pp. 8373

Author(s):

Matilda Cresso ◽

Nicola Clerici ◽

Adriana Sanchez ◽

Fernando Jaramillo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Dry Season ◽

Capital City ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mountain Range ◽

Wet Season ◽

Paramo ecosystems are tropical alpine grasslands, located above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the Andean mountain range. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments. In this study, we used regional observations and downscaled data for precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature during the reference period 1960–1990 and simulations for the future period 2041–2060 to study the present and future extents of paramo ecosystems in the Chingaza National Park (CNP), nearby Colombia’s capital city, Bogotá. The historical data were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries to determine the locations where paramo ecosystems currently thrive. Our results found that increasing mean monthly temperatures and changing precipitation will render 39 to 52% of the current paramo extent in CNP unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season, and 13 to 34% during the wet season. The greatest loss of paramo area will occur during the dry season and for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5, when both temperature and precipitation boundaries are more prone to be exceeded. Although our initial estimates show the future impact on paramos and the water security of Bogotá due to climate change, complex internal and external interactions in paramo ecosystems make it essential to study other influencing climatic parameters (e.g., soil, topography, wind, etc.) apart from temperature and precipitation.

Assessment of climate change on the future water levels of the Iberá wetlands, Argentina, during the twenty-first century

International Journal of River Basin Management ◽

10.1080/15715124.2013.819807 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 401-410 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Natalia B. Montroull ◽

Ramiro I. Saurral ◽

Inés A. Camilloni ◽

Rafael Grimson ◽

Pablo Vasquez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Levels ◽

First Century ◽

The Future ◽

Twenty First Century

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation Over India

10.1007/978-981-16-2904-4_4 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 121-142

Author(s):

Sridhara Nayak ◽

Tetsuya Takemi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Humid Climate ◽

Frequency Distributions ◽

Annual Cycles ◽

The North ◽

AbstractThis study explores a comprehensive assessment of future climate change in terms of the climatologies, distribution patterns, annual cycles, and frequency distributions of temperature and precipitation over India by analyzing 190 mega-ensemble experimental results. The results indicate that the annual mean surface temperatures over Indian regions are typically 25 ℃ or higher in the present climate (1951–2010) and are expected to increase by 3–5 ℃ in the future climate (2051–2110). Some desert regions in the west and tropical humid climate types in the central and south regions of the country show possible temperature increases of 4–5 ℃, while the temperatures over the subtropical humid climates in the north and east regions of the country show increases of 3–4 ℃. The precipitation amounts over the arid and semiarid climate types in the western region and over some tropical rainforest climate zones in the southwest region show increases of 0.5 mm d−1 in the future climate, and the precipitation amounts over the temperate, rainy climate types in the northeast region show increases of more than 1 mm d−1. This study also discusses future changes in various climatic variables, including vertical velocity, air temperature, specific humidity, cloud cover, and relative humidity.

The Resiliency of High-Altitude Watershed to Dry Condition Under the Changing Climate

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-386 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Eshrat Fatima ◽

Akif Rahim ◽

Shabeh ul Hasson ◽

Mujtaba Hassan ◽

Farhan Aziz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Daily Temperature ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Monthly Streamflow ◽

The Future ◽

Dry Conditions ◽

The Impact ◽

Far Future

<p>The hydrological cycle is generally known as a recurring result of various forms of water movement and changes in its physical state in nature over a specific area of &#8203;&#8203;the earth (river or Lake Basin, a continent, or the whole earth). It is most likely that the increase in global warming will intensively affect the hydrological cycle regionally and globally which will ultimately affect the ecosystem, public health, and municipal water demand. Therefore, the resiliency of watershed to extreme events play a vital role to understand the health of the watershed. This study aims to quantify the resiliency of the Hunza watershed, which lies in the Western Karakoram, to dry conditions under the climate change projections i.e. RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We used a fully distributed hydrological model SPHY to simulate the impact of climate change on future water availability. The SPHY Model was calibration and validation for the time periods (1994-2000) and (2001-2006) respectively. The performance of the model was tested through statistical analysis such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), percentage of bias (PBIAS), and root mean square error (RMSE).To develop future water scenarios, the daily temperature, and precipitation data were obtained from the CORDEX South Asia domain under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The empirical quantile mapping method was used for the correction of the daily temperature and precipitation biases under the regional scale. The model was run for near (2007-2036), mid (2037-2066), and far-future (2067-2096) climate projections i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The resilience of watershed defined as the speed of recovery from dry conditions. The monthly Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) was used as an indicator of the dry condition. The resiliency of the watershed determines with the threshold levels of -0.5 and -1.0. The analysis indicates that the resiliency of the watershed has increased from 0.3 to 0.5 in the future under the RCP of 2.6. The value of resilience under the RCP of 4.5 is 0.29, 0.45, and 0.52 for near, mid, and far futures respectively. Under extreme climate conditions RCP 8.5, the watershed resilience is 0.2 in the near future and 0.3 in the mid-future, and 0.6 for the far future. Therefore, it can be concluded that the health of the reservoirs will be very good in the future to stabilize the drought. &#160;</p>

Temporal–Spatial Climate Variability in the Headwater Drainage Basins of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, China

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00523.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (14) ◽

pp. 5061-5071 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Yan-Fang Sang ◽

Zhonggen Wang ◽

Changming Liu ◽

Tongliang Gong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Yellow River ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Drainage Basins ◽

Increase Rate ◽

Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Variability of the climate in the headwater drainage basins of the Yangtze River and Yellow River during 1961–2010 was investigated by examining four typical climatic variables: daily minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures and daily precipitation. The results indicate that the temporal trends vary among the climatic variables and the time periods examined. The increase in daily minimum temperature began later than the daily mean and maximum temperatures, but the increase rate of the former was relatively greater after 1985. The abrupt increases in precipitation that occurred near 1978 were much clearer than the three temperature variables. Four dominant periodicities (3, 7, 11, and 18–20 yr) of temperature and precipitation were identified, and these variation patterns directly determined the periodic discharge variations in the two rivers. Under climate change impacts, periodic variations in temperature and precipitation at long temporal scales were intensified after the 1980s. Comparatively, climate change more severely impacts the minimum temperature and precipitation than the maximum and mean temperatures in the study area, and the variability of daily precipitation is more complex than the three temperature variables. Overall, the headwater drainage basin of the Yellow River is more susceptible to climate change compared with the other basin. After 2008, the increase rate of temperature (especially the daily mean and minimum temperatures) became greater, and precipitation showed a downward trend in the study areas. These trends are unfavorable for the safety of water resources and for eco-environmental safety in the two basins.

Different Radial Growth Responses to Climate Change of Three Dominant Conifer Species in Temperate Forest, Northeastern China

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change ◽

10.3389/ffgc.2021.820800 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

Author(s):

Hui Wang ◽

Yangcui Ning ◽

Chunlan Liu ◽

Peng Xu ◽

Wentao Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Radial Growth ◽

Temperate Forest ◽

Growing Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

The Future ◽

Future Growth

We conducted dendroclimatological study on three dominant conifer tree species, Pinus koraiensis, Larix olgensis, and Picea jezoensis, in northeastern China for a better understanding of climate change impacts on temperate forest growth, by discussing the radial growth relationships of these tree species and projecting their radial growth trends under the future climate change scenarios. Based on the tree-ring samples collected from the upper altitude of Changbai Mountain, ring width chronologies were built to examine the growth relationships, and regression equations were established to project the future growth of the species under future climate change projected by the five general circulation models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although both temperature and precipitation showed varying degrees of relationships with growth of these three tree species, the limiting climate factors were species-specific. The tree-ring growth of P. koraiensis was limited by the summer temperature and precipitation at the end of growth, namely, significant positive correlations with the current July temperature and the previous September precipitation. Growth of L. olgensis was limited by the temperature before growing season, for its chronology was negatively correlated with the current February and previous December temperature (p < 0.05). The climatic conditions before and after growing season seemed to be the limiting factors of P. jezoensis growth, which was negatively correlated with the current February to April temperature and the current September temperature (p < 0.05), and positively correlated with the current August precipitation (p < 0.05). Under the gradual increasing of temperature predicted by the five GCMs and four RCP scenarios, the radial growth of P. Koraiensis will relatively increase, while that of L. olgensis and P. jezoensis will relatively decrease comparing to the base-line period (1981–2010). The specific growth–climate relationships and the future growth trends are species dependent. P. Koraiensis was the more suitable tree species for the forestation to maintain the sustainable forest in Changbai Mountain.

Future Changes in Rice Bioclimatic Growing Conditions in Portugal

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy9110674 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 674 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Helder Fraga ◽

Nathalie Guimarães ◽

João A. Santos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Strong Dependence ◽

Significant Risk ◽

Rice Production ◽

Recent Past ◽

Crop Development ◽

Rice is a historically important crop in Portugal. This crop development and production strongly depend on atmospheric conditions in the growing season. Given the strong dependence of climatic conditions, climate change may pose a significant risk for future rice production. In the present study, a high spatial resolution bioclimatic characterization over the main rice producing region in Portugal was performed for the recent past (1950–2000) and for the future (2041–2060) under four different anthropogenic forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). This zoning is performed by using eight bioclimatic indices, based on temperature and precipitation, using a very high resolution gridded dataset (Worldclim). For the future period, an 11-member global climate model ensemble was used, also taking into account model/scenario uncertainties and bias. Additionally, a new index was developed to incorporate the main features of temperature and precipitation at each rice field level. Under recent past climates, a clear north–south gradient in temperature and precipitation is apparent, with the regions of Tejo and Sado presenting higher temperatures and lower precipitation than the Mondego and Vouga regions. Additionally, there is a coastal–inland effect due to the Atlantic Ocean influence. Under anthropogenic climate change, all indices point to annual higher temperatures and lower precipitations across all rice producing regions, accompanied by increased seasonality. Furthermore, the rise of summertime temperatures may substantially increase water demands, which, when unmitigated, may bring physiological problems in the crop development. We conclude that climate change may negatively impact the viability of rice production in Portugal, particularly taking into account the national grown varieties. Thus, adequate and timely planning of suitable adaptation measures are needed to ensure the sustainability of this historically important food sector.