scholarly journals STALLED FERTILITY DECLINE IN EAST NUSA TENGGARA, INDONESIA, 2002-2017: UNDERSTANDING ITS DETERMINANTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 227
Author(s):  
Melianus Mesakh Taebenu
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Essential Role ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Document Analysis ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Fertility Behaviour ◽  
The Government

Indonesia is one of the countries that has been relatively successful in completing a fertility transition. However, provincial differences in fertility still exist, with East Nusa Tenggara (Nusa Tenggara Timur – NTT) having the highest Total Fertility Rate in 2017 (TFR, 3.4 births per woman). By employing a document analysis method, this study explores the indirect and direct determinants of the stalled fertility decline in NTT. It is revealed that all indirect determinants of fertility –culture, socioeconomics, and governance– have shaped women's persistent fertility behaviour in NTT. Meanwhile, among three direct determinants of fertility –marriage, contraception, and postpartum infecundability–, contraception is the only determinant that has been responsible for the stall of fertility transition in this province. These findings suggest that to foster the fertility decline in NTT, the government plays an essential role in boosting the provision of contraception, information and education, and providing incentives for having fewer children.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

scholarly journals POPULATION CONTROL POLICIES IN THE SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA AFTER TOTAL FERTILITY RATE INCREASED BASED ON IDHS 2017

NATAPRAJA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-53
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Fahrudin Alfana ◽  
Agus Joko Pitoyo ◽  
Rizky Laudiansyah ◽  
Sri Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Library Research ◽  
Grand Design ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Special Region

This study has two main objectives. The first is to explain the achievement of the value of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY). The second is to explain the population control policy after the increase in TFR in DIY results of the 2017 IDHS. The population control policy taken by the DIY government comes from the Grand Design of Population Development document published by the People's Welfare Bureau. The method used in this study is library research. The analyst uses qualitative descriptive. The results showed that according to IDHS data, there had been fluctuations in the value of TFR during 1991-2017. In the last ten years, the pattern of TFR values in DIY has tended to increase. Population control is necessary to prevent this tendency. The policies taken by the government in the future in terms of population control in DIY include suppressing population growth rates, maturing marital age, controlling the value of TFR, and increasing the prevalence of contraception. The DIY government will implement at least this policy until 2035.

Indian Fertility Transition

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 413-423
Author(s):  
Anjali Radkar
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Maternal Mortality Ratio ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Fertility Reduction ◽  
The Right

Fighting to curb the population growth, India’s reduction in fertility rate (58%) in 35 years is evident; total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 5.2 to 2.2 meaning three children less. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–2016, TFR has dropped to 2.18 from 3.39 in 1992 (NFHS-1). Proximate determinants indicate that over a period, index of marriage and contraception contribute lesser towards fertility, and postpartum amenorrhoea shows marginal variation. When total fecundity remains constant, share of abortion does not remain one but contribute towards fertility reduction. Benefits of fertility decline include lowering population growth and its positive effects on overall development. As fertility declines, maternal mortality declines; maternal mortality ratio (MRR) declined by 67 per cent in past 13 years. Sharp decline in fertility gives rise to demographic dividend. India is passing through it. Fertility drop is not without consequences. Fertility decline makes pregnancies precious; giving rise to upswing to C-section deliveries and hysterectomy even for a minor cause or is it a response to cancer threat? Preference for sons is universal here. With fertility reduction, it surfaces with unruly consequences of missing girls. Drop in fertility has changed the shape of the population pyramid. Share of elderly is reaching 10 per cent, of which share of women and more so share of oldest women is more. In the absence of social security and low rates of workforce participation, women are getting more dependent on the required care, increasing their vulnerability. Fertility reduction has achieved with moderate level of development. Now the right response to effects of fertility decline is the biggest social challenge.

scholarly journals An Indirect Method to Estimate Total Fertility Rate on the Basis of the Moments of Age Distribution of Women in Reproductive age

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 296-314
Author(s):  
Brijesh P Singh ◽  
Sandeep Sing ◽  
Aalok Ranjan Chaurasia
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Indirect Methods ◽  
Population Stabilization ◽  
Simple Regression

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the universally used indicator to measure and monitor fertility transition and population stabilization. Calculation of TFR requires data on births by age of woman. In the absence of these data, several indirect methods have been proposed to estimate TFR but their application is limited to specific period and place. This paper deduces a simple regression method for estimating TFR based on the current age distribution of women in reproductive age. The method can be used to estimate TFR at local level and for different sub-groups of the population.

Trends and Differentials in Moslem fertility

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa H. Nagi
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Fertility Differentials

SummaryThis paper examines data on fertility levels in 33 Moslem countries between 1960 and 1980. Fertility measures include crude birth rate, total fertility rate and age-specific birth rate, and the percentage change in them between 1960 and 1980.The analysis focuses on: (1) the current status of Moslem fertility in comparison to non-Moslem countries in the same region; (2) the emerging fertility differentials among Moslem countries; (3) how much of the recent fertility declines in some Moslem countries is associated with modernization variables and with family planning efforts.The results indicate that: (1) Moslem fertility remains universally high and is generally higher than in non-Moslem countries in the same region; (2) very few Moslem countries have succeeded in bringing down their level of fertility to justify a search for the predictors of Moslem fertility levels; (3) in spite of a sufficient range of variations in the economic and social correlates of fertility, the corresponding fertility variables in these countries do not suggest that the reproductive behaviour of Moslem women has reacted to such variations; (4) efforts directed towards stronger family planning programmes are clearly related to fertility decline.

Major Determinants of China's Fertility Transition

1989 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 1-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Xizhe
Keyword(s):  
Birth Control ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
The 1960S

During the past four decades China has experienced a dramatic fertility transition. Her national total fertility rate (TFR) was approximately 5·8 in the mid 1950s and remained at this level until the end of the 1960s. Since the early 1970s fertility transition has accelerated. The national TFR declined from 5·7 in 1970 to 3·6 in 1975, and down further to 2·31 in 1980. In other words, China’s fertility decreased by more than 50 per cent in only one decade. More recently, China’s fertility rose slightly, due mainly to a relaxation of birth control measures and a large marriage boom. Nevertheless, China’s fertility remains at a low level.

scholarly journals QUADRANT ANALYSIS OF TOTAL FERTILITY RATE AND CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE RATE OF DISTRICT AND CITY IN EAST JAVA

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Kiki Adi Mutiari ◽  
Kuntoro Kuntoro
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Prevalence Rate ◽  
Family Planning Program ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Quadrant Analysis ◽  
Planning Program ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence ◽  
The Government

One of the indicators determine the wellness of Family Planning Program is the high number of participants enrolling, or commonly known as the Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) and the number of children born known as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a maximum of 2 children. There are several regions in East Java where the situation of TFR and CPR does not show the ideal conditions. This shows that there are problems in the current family planning program. This research was conducted to map districts and cities in East Java based on TFR and CPR data respectively in quadrant form. This type of research is on-reactive research which utilizes secondary data from Indonesia - National Socio-Economic Survey in 2015. The research method used is recapitulating data and classifying districts and cities in the form of quadrants by comparing to data on achievement of TFR and CPR in East Java using SPSS. The results of the study have mapped districts and cities in East Java which are described in quadrant form. The regions that need major attention from the government are regions in quadrants I and II. Quadrant III is included in an abnormal condition and quadrant IV is a quadrant that has an area where TFR and CPR conditions are ideal. The conclusions of this study are the areas in quadrant I, namely: Sampang (district), Blitar (city), Blitar (district), Tulungagung (district), Ponorogo (district), Madiun (city), and Pasuruan (city) are the priority in getting the FP program improvements. The advice that can be given is to evaluate the ongoing family planning program to find out the factors that cause the TFR and CPR conditions are not in line with government expectations.

scholarly journals Women's Education: An Important Tool for Birth Reduction? A GMM - Poisson Regression Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 285-302
Author(s):  
Ali Yedan
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Age At First Birth ◽  
The Government ◽  
Number Of Births

Burkina Faso is a country with a shallow level of woman’s education. However, it is one of the most fertile countries. This paper analyzes whether the education of women reduces the number of births and the Total Fertility Rate in Burkina Faso. It also predicts the average number of births per woman and the Total Fertility Rate if women were better educated. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, I model the two-stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with the Heckman model and Poisson regression. The results show that the high fertility in Burkina Faso is mainly due to the low level of the woman’s education. The post-primary education increases the age at first birth. The number of births per woman would be decreased in the quarter and the Total Fertility Rate would pass from 5.4 to 3.6 if all women had at least completed the primary school. If all women had at least an incomplete secondary school, the number of births per woman would halve and the Total Fertility Rate would become 2.0. The government would do better to improve the education system allowing a good education for all, especially for women if it intends to reduce fertility.

EXPLAINING THE FERTILITY PUZZLE IN SRI LANKA

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (06) ◽  
pp. 845-852
Author(s):  
GAMINIRATNE WIJESEKERE ◽  
DHARMA ARUNACHALAM
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Health Survey ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic And Health Survey ◽  
Below Replacement Fertility

SummaryFertility transition in Sri Lanka began in the mid-1960s and the declining trend continued over the decades. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of 2000 showed the total fertility rate (TFR) reaching 1.9 births per woman, a level below replacement fertility. The next DHS of 2006/7 showed a TFR of 2.3. Some have interpreted this pattern as indicating a reversal of the fertility transition. This paper casts doubts on the below-replacement fertility revealed in the 2000 survey.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGELOLAAN PROGRAM PEMBERDAYAAN EKONOMI KELUARGA PERWAKILAN BADAN KEPENDUDUKAN KELUARGA BERENCANA NASIONAL (BKKBN) PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA TAHUN 2013 – 2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 836
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ancha Sitorus
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Program Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
The Government ◽  
North Sumatra

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi peranan kelompok Usaha Peningkatan Pendapatan Keluarga Sejahtera (UPPKS) dalam pemberdayaan ekonomi keluarga serta peningkatkan keterlibatan keluarga dalam KB. Hal ini diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi terhadap penurunan angka kemiskinan serta penurunan angka Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode evaluasi dengan teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan analisis data sekunder kemudian melakukan verifikasi data dengan wawancara kepada pengelola UPPKS di BkkbN Perwakilan Provinsi Sumatera Utara yakni Kepala Kantor Perwakilan BKKBN Sumatera Utara, Kepala Bidang Keluarga Sejahtera dan Kepala Sub Bidang Pemberdayaan Ekonomi Keluarga. Berdasarkan hasil analisis data kelompok UPPKS selama lima tahun terakhir, penganggaran dana untuk pengembangan kelompok mengalami fluktuasi sehingga mempengaruhi kondisi keterlibatan anggota kelompok termasuk keturutsertaan dalam ber-KB. Terdapat 1.667 jumlah kelompok UPPKS dan hanya diikuti oleh 1,95% keluarga Pra Sejahtera dan Sejahtera I dari total 558.781 keluarga keluarga Pra Sejahtera dan Sejahtera I yang ada di Sumatera Utara. Anggota kelompok UPPKS yang ber KB 1,87% dari total 558.781 keluarga. Hal ini disebabkan beberapa faktor seperti penurunan anggaran akibat efisiensi oleh pemerintah, penambahan mitra yang membantu pendampingan kelompok UPPKS belum signifikan dan pengurangan akses modal di kelompok yang harus mengembalikan dana modal kelompok ke kas Negara.Kata Kunci: Ekonomi Keluarga, Kelompok UPPKS, Analisis ProgramAbstractThis study aims to evaluate the role Usaha Peningkatan Pendapatan Keluarga Sejahtera (UPPKS) in economic empowerment and capacity building in family planning. This can provide information about reducing poverty and decreasing the total fertility rate (TFR). The research method is evaluate method used secondary data analysis using which was then verified by interviewing the UPPKS organizer in BkkbN Representative of North Sumatra Province, Head of BKKBN North Sumatra Representative Office, Head of the Family Welfare Division and Head of Family Economic Empowerment Sub-Sector. Based on the results of the UPPKS group data analysis over the past five years, budgeting of funds to develop these groups affects the conditions in the KB. There are 1,667 number welfare family I of UPPKS groups and only 1.95% of families from the total of 558,781 families. Members of the UPPKS group whose family planning is 1.87% of the total 558,781 families. This is caused by several factors that are very helpful by the government, and partners who help mentoring UPPKS groups have not been significant and access capital in groups that are not yet complete.Keywords: Family Economic, UPPKS Group, Program Analysis

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document