scholarly journals Demographic Projections for India: Past, Present and Future

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.31) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
R Subba Rao ◽  
Y Jagannadhapuri ◽  
K M. Ganes ◽  
D V. Ramanamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
New Information ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Sample Registration System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population

The growth or development of a country mainly depends on the present and future population scenario. Population projections help in the growth of the nation in various directions. Predicting the human fertility and mortality is very difficult, particularly when we are concentrating farther time. Various National, International and some individual demographers made projections for the entire nation and some parts of the country. The estimates of the population projections changes as and when new information added to the existing values. The perspective population growth and its impact were discussed by Visaria and Visaria, 1996 and noticed that population projections vary based on the parameters considered in their models. In our present work, by considering the 2001 India’s Census data, Registrar General (1996)[14], a new population projection of the country are estimated by allowing the age arrangement of the population. The mortality estimates of the whole country made by considering the impact of HIV / AIDS. Cohort component method was used for the projections from 2001 to 2051. Using the Sample Registration System (SRS) figures of 2001 census, state level figures are generated. Only two variants namely, average and high are used for making the population projections.  

scholarly journals Women’s Education, Family Planning, or Both? Application of Multistate Demographic Projections in India

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leiwen Jiang ◽  
Karen Hardee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Equality In Education ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Investments In Education

Is education the best contraceptive? Using the multistate human capital projection model, our analysis shows that the projected changes in India population vary depending on investments in education and helping women reduce unwanted fertility rates, that investments in both education and helping women in each education category—but particularly less educated women—meet their wanted fertility will have the largest impacts on India’s population projections, and that the impact from investment in reducing unwanted fertility will be much more immediate and significant than only investments in education. Our analysis also reveals that an increasing education transition rate in India will not only help to achieve a population age structure that is favorable for economic growth, but also result in a larger share of skilled labor force that help to achieve higher economic growth rate. More importantly, investment in girls’ education and achieving gender equality in education will be the most effective measure to increase India’s population education level and improve its overall values of human capital.

scholarly journals The Labor Market Impact of State-Level Anti-Discrimination Laws, 1940–1960

ILR Review ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Black Women ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Census Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Black Workers ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Fair Employment ◽  
Employment Legislation ◽  
The Impact

By the time Congress passed the 1964 Civil Rights Act, 98% of non-southern blacks (40% of all blacks) already resided in states with “fair employment” laws prohibiting labor market discrimination. Using census data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, the author assesses the impact of fair employment legislation on black workers' relative income, unemployment, labor force participation, migration, and occupational and industrial distributions. In general, the fair employment laws adopted in the 1940s appear to have had larger effects than those adopted in the 1950s, and the laws had considerably smaller effects on the labor market outcomes of black men than on those of black women.

Hindu–Muslim Fertility Differentials in India: Indirect Estimation at the District Level from Census 2011

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saswata Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
State Level ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Fertility Schedule ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Fertility Differentials

This article estimates the total fertility rate (TFR) for the overall population in major Indian states by employing Arriaga variation of the P/F ratio method and the relational Gompertz model. The article uses the 2011 Census data on average parity and the current fertility schedule. Estimation of TFRs at the state level by employing Arriaga variation of the P/F ratio method strongly corresponds with Sample Registration System (SRS) compared to those derived from the relational Gompertz model. Thus, Arriaga variation of the P/F ratio method was retained to estimate the Hindu–Muslim fertility differentials for 618 districts in India from all states except Jammu and Kashmir. Comparing the TFRs obtained from the analyses with indirect estimates of TFRs from the 2001 Census, the analysis reveals that the overall fertility transition in India has been steady during the last decade. Fertility transition has been underway for both Hindus and Muslims, at a varying pace, when compared to the state-level indirect estimates of the 2001 Census. Though the overall convergence of fertility between Hindus and Muslims has been underway, significant regional variations persist.

scholarly journals Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo ◽  
Ding ◽  
Zhong ◽  
Cheng ◽  
Huang
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Population ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Population Development ◽  
Development Environment ◽  
National Population ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population

：A precise multi-scenario prediction of future population, based on micro-scale census data and localized interpretation of global scenarios, is significant for understanding long-term demographic changes. However, the data used in previous research need to be further refined. Few studies have focused on predicting the sex ratio at birth, which is vitally important for estimating the future size and structure of the population. It is also important to interpret and set parameters for China's future population development in line with the framework for global shared socioeconomic pathways. This paper, therefore, used the structural population data for provinces, prefectures, and counties from the Sixth National Population Census of China. It comprehensively considered the impact of China’s economic development level, specific population policies, and loss of an only child on key parameters, and localized the population change parameters for different scenarios. A population–development–environment model was used to explain the population change parameters. The population of 340 districts was refined, forecast, and aggregated to the national scale. The results show that the Chinese population is expected to first increase then decrease under the five paths from 2010 to 2050. The aging demographic structure is not reversed under any paths, and the increase or decrease in the urban and rural populations between adjacent node years is closely related to the fertility rate and urbanization speed. We suggest that measures should be taken to encourage childbearing, manage the aging population problem, and reduce the pressure on young and middle-aged people.

Centre-Periphery Relations in Europe: Demographic Aspect

2015 ◽  
pp. 58-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Klupt
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Socioeconomic System ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Knowledge Intensive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population

The paper deals with the impact of centre-periphery relations on the demographic change in Europe in the 21st century. The reasons why the projections presented by Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute in 1999 underestimated the future population growth in France, Italy, Spain and UK are analyzed. Current statistics and UN population projections (2012 revision) demonstrate that the idea of the total depopulation coming in Europe, commonly held there over the 20th century, is out of date. In fact, depopulation is far from being total; it is common only in peripheral countries of Europe, not in semi-peripheral and central ones (Germany is an exception). This conclusion is corroborated by the close positive correlation (r=0.754) between per capita GNI and the rate of population increase in 34 European countries between 2000 and 2012. The alarmist perspective of ageing is criticized. It is argued that ageing is often unreasonably blamed for negative effects which, in fact, are caused by other faults of socioeconomic system. So, the recent number of unemployed in Spain (5.7 millions) is four times more than the expected decrease in the number of people aged 20 to 64 between 2010 and 2030 (1.4 millions). The prospective institutional and structural consequences of the post-crisis shifting of immigration flows from Spain to Germany are considered. Given this shifting, the further expansion of the peripheral and semi-peripheral enclaves in German economy seems to be verisimilar. Nevertheless, the centripetal migration maintains, like before, the centre-peripheral differences in Europe. The centre concentrates knowledge-intensive services and attracts the most qualified migrants; semi-periphery receives the less qualified ones; the periphery is the source of labour force for both the centre and the semi-periphery.

scholarly journals A new model for estimating district life expectancy at birth in India, with special reference to Assam state

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Rajan Sarma ◽  
Labananda Choudhury
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Life Tables ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Sample Registration System ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

Life expectancy at birth (e0) is considered as an important indicator of the mortality level of a population. In India, direct estimation of e0 is not possible due to incomplete death registration. The Sample Registration System (SRS) of India provides information on e0 only for the 16 major states. Estimates of e0 for the districts are not available. Using data from the Coale-Demeny West model life tables, United Nations South Asian model life tables, and SRS life tables of India and its major states, the paper shows that the relationship between life expectancy at age one (e0) and the probability of surviving to age one (l1) is linear, and the relationship between e0 and l1 is quadratic. From the quadratic relationship between e0 and l1, an attempt is made to estimate e0 for some selected districts of India for 2001 and 2010, using estimated l1 from 2001 census data and Annual Health Survey (2010–11) data.

scholarly journals Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Cafaro ◽  
Patrícia Dérer
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Population Numbers

We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.

scholarly journals Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment: The Need for Compulsory Registration

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement 2) ◽  
pp. 153s-153s ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L. Gomes ◽  
T. Turbay ◽  
P. Venturella ◽  
L. Cecagno ◽  
G. Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
State Level ◽  
Federal District ◽  
The State ◽  
Cancer Registration ◽  
Cancer Information ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Public Hearings ◽  
The Impact

Background and context: According INCA 630,000 new cases of cancer will be diagnosed in 2018, however Brazil does not have a unified registration system for cases of cancer. The Cancer Information System (SISCAN) was supposed to be in operation in Brazil since 2013, but it is not used by several Brazilian municipalities. Without these records it is not possible to measure the actual dimension of cases of cancer (number of cases, stages, treatments, etc.); consequently, public policies aiming at actual oncologic needs are not developed, which leads to the waste of public resources and an increase in mortality rates. Aim: Implement a mandatory and unified cancer registration system in Brazil. Strategy/Tactics: Involvement of various stakeholders, such as political leaders, NGOs, the press, etc. Align several actions and projects executed by Federação Brasileira de Instituições Filantrópicas de Apoio à Saúde da Mama (FEMAMA) for the same goal. Share FEMAMA´s goal with other pressure groups. Program/Policy process: Prepare arguments for proposing a bill on the topic in question. Promotion in the media regarding the impact of the lack of a mandatory registration system; Align discourse with NGOs associated to FEMAMA so that they can act as representatives and regional influencers on this topic. Meeting with the Minister of Health In reference to World Cancer Day (WCD), NGOs associated to FEMAMA have submitted letters asking state Congresspeople to draft a bill creating mandatory cancer notification systems in their respective states; Organization of 13 debate cycles and 9 public hearings at state assemblies about the topic; Articulations with federal Congresspeople for proposing a bill on the topic in question; Organization of a conference attended by NGO representatives and female political leaders to discuss action proposals; Discussion of the project and joint actions executed alongside multisector group in Brazil. Outcomes: Favorable opinion from the Ministry of Health about FEMAMA´s goals; WCD: Actions organized in 15 Brazilian states with the engagement of 17 Congresspeople; Organization of debate cycles and public hearings on the topic in 13 Brazilian states; Enactment of a regulation implementing a mandatory cancer registration system in the Federal District since 2017; Submission of a proposal petition requesting the implementation of a mandatory cancer registration system in the State of São Paulo to the State Department of Health. Proposal of two bills submitted at the House of Representatives on the topic in question (PL 8478/2017 and PL 8470/2017); The bills (unified) were passed by the House of Representatives, and have been subsequently submitted to the Senate for analysis; What was learned: The articulations with several political leaders for the proposal of a bill for the implementation of a mandatory cancer registration system and the articulated engagement of NGOs leverages these actions and expands debate in the legislative, both on a national and on a state level.

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

The Impact of a Potential Public/Private Initiative on a Defined Region of the South Suburban Chicago Metropolitan Area

2019 ◽  
pp. 14-32
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Market Area ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact

The university is considered one of the engines of growth in a local economy or its market area, since its direct contributions consist of 1) employment of faculty and staff, 2) services to students, and supply chain links vendors, all of which define the University’s Market area. Indirect contributions consist of those agents associated with the university in terms of community and civic events. Each of these activities represent economic benefits to their host communities and can be classified as the economic impact a university has on its local economy and whose spatial market area includes each of the above agents. In addition are the critical links to the University, which can be considered part of its Demand and Supply chain. This paper contributes to the field of Public/Private Impact Analysis, which is used to substantiate the social and economic benefits of cooperating for economic resources. We use Census data on Output of Goods and Services, Labor Income on Salaries, Wages and Benefits, Indirect State and Local Taxes, Property Tax Revenue, Population, and Inter-Industry to measure economic impact (Implan, 2016).

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