scholarly journals Annual range of temperature and precipitation forecast for Altai-Sayan mountain country

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Borisovich Kirsta ◽  
Olga Volfova Loucka
Keyword(s):  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Sayan Mountain ◽  
Mountain Country

Analysis and long-term forecasting of climatic characteristics of the mountains is laborious and extremely difficult due to complex vertical and horizontal differentiation of climatic fields and insufficient number of weather stations in the region. We have developed a method for statistical forecast of average monthly temperature in the surface air layer and monthly precipitation for the mountain areas with an annual lead time. The method is based on the description of monthly dynamics of the mentioned factors expressed in percent of their average annual monthly values measured in situ. Such a dynamics remains the same throughout the study territory, regardless of its height and exposure. To convert the relative values of temperature and precipitation into their conventional units of measurements (C and mm) one needs just mean annual January and July values of air temperature and precipitation for the territory under study. By the example of the Altai-Sayan mountain country, it is shown that the use of observation data for 67 years obtained from several reference weather stations ensure reliable prediction. The forecast is equally true for any part of the mountainous country due to spatial generalization of relative changes in these factors. The universal criterion A for assessing the quality of various predictive methods (including those, which do not use the model quality indices RSR and NashSutcliffe) is proposed. The criterion is the error of predictive method Sdiff normalized by standard deviation Sobs of observations from their average and equals to Sdiff/ Sobs. It is associated with NSE and RSR indices through dependencies RSR = A and NSE = 1RSR2 = 12A2. The proposed criterion was used in assessing the quality of temperature and precipitation forecasts; it was close to the theoretically best one for statistical prognoses.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF WEATHER STATIONS STARITSA AND TVER OVER A LONG PERIOD

2020 ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
Лариса Эдуардовна Лапина ◽  
Ирина Леонидовна Григорьева
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Weather Stations

Анализируется региональная изменчивость среднемноголетних характеристик температуры воздуха в приземном слое и осадков по данным метеостанций в Старице и Твери, расположенных в бассейне верхней Волги. Среднегодовые и среднемесячные значения характеристик проанализированы с использованием метода скользящего среднего. Рассмотрен 30-летний период осреднения. Проанализированы данные по метеостанции Старица с 1962 по 2017 гг., а по метеостанции Тверь - с 1944 по 2017 гг. Для Старицы использованы суточные данные, для Твери - только среднемесячные. Данные температуры приземного слоя воздуха для каждого года наблюдений аппроксимировались простой синусоидальной функцией. Показано, что среднемноголетние значения амплитуд годовых колебаний для обеих метеостанций имеют тенденцию к снижению, а среднегодовые значения температур - тенденцию к повышению. Методом наименьших квадратов найдены параметры уравнений прямых, описывающих изменчивость среднемноголетних величин амплитуд годовых колебаний и среднемноголетних годовых температур воздуха. Сравнивались периоды наблюдений с 1961 по 1990 гг. и с 1991 по 2017 гг. для Твери и Старицы. Приводятся статистические характеристики температуры воздуха и осадков для двух периодов, сопоставлены значения метеостанций в Старице и Твери. Показано, что существенная разница между значениями температуры воздуха для обеих метеостанций наблюдается только во втором периоде. Среднемноголетние годовые суммы атмосферных осадков в этих городах имеют тенденцию к повышению со средней скоростью 18 мм/год. Месячные суммы атмосферных осадков однозначной тенденции, одинаковой для всех месяцев, не имеют. Скорость роста среднемноголетних значений температуры воздуха в Твери оценивается в 0.04˚С/год, в Старице - 0.03˚С/год. Regional variability of the average annual characteristics of air temperature in the surface layer and precipitation is analyzed based on data from weather stations in Staritsa and Tver, located in the Upper Volga basin. The average annual and average monthly values of the characteristics are analyzed using the moving average method. The 30-year averaging period is considered. Data on the Staritsa weather station from 1962 to 2017 and on the Tver weather station from 1944 to 2017 were analyzed. For Staritsa daily data were used, while for Tver only the average monthly data was used. The surface air temperature data for each year of observations was approximated by a simple sinusoidal function. It is shown that the average annual values of the amplitudes of annual fluctuations for both weather stations tend to decrease, and the average annual values of temperatures tend to increase. The parameters of the linear equations describing the variability of the average annual values of the amplitudes of annual fluctuations and the average annual air temperatures are found using the least squares method. We compared the observation periods from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2017 for Tver and Staritsa. Statistical characteristics of air temperature and precipitation for both periods are given. Values for both weather stations are compared. It is shown that a significant difference between the air temperature values for both weather stations is observed only in the second period. The average annual precipitation in both cities tends to increase at an average rate of 18 mm /year. Monthly precipitation totals do not have the same trend for all months. The rate of growth of the average annual air temperature in Tver is estimated at 0.04˚C/year, in Staritsa - 0.03˚C/year.

scholarly journals Validating the University of Delaware’s precipitation and temperature database for northern South America

DYNA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 82 (194) ◽  
pp. 86-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
José David Santos-Gómez ◽  
Juan Sebastián Fontalvo-García ◽  
Juan Diego Giraldo Osorio
Keyword(s):  
Open Access ◽  
Data Representation ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Access Information ◽  
The University ◽  
Temporal Coverage

Vast sections of the planet face either a dearth of ground-based weather stations or are hampered by the poor quality of those in service. In response, researchers are forced to turn to climate field databases, as they constitute a source of reliable information for local studies. Insofar as the Amazon region, these databases prove to be valuable given their open-access platform and the fact that this expansive region possesses few quality stations (coupled with insufficient temporal coverage). However, before basing research on such archives, this information should be compared against in situ station measurements. Then, the present study assesses the validity of temperature and precipitation information furnished by University of Delaware’s database (UD-ATP) by means of a comparison with the open-access information available from Climate Explorer project (CLIMEXP). Results show that UD-ATP database offers better precipitation data representation, especially on Brazil, which is perhaps the effect of higher-quality and larger-quantity observed data.

MODEL MANAJEMEN MUTU MADRASAH KAJIAN DI MIN & MI MA’RIF PAGERAJI PURWOKERTO

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-105
Author(s):  
Rohmat Rohmat
Keyword(s):  
Quality Management ◽  
Quality Management System ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Teacher Competence ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Community Environment ◽  
The Family ◽  
Quality Management Model ◽  
Community Cooperation

Abstract: The quality of madrasah education needs to get serious attention both from process aspect and its result. The quality of madrasah education is also influenced by the family and community environment. This brings with it the need for a review and mapping of the quality management model of education in Madrasah Ibtidaiyah. The Madrasah Ibtidaiyah of Purwokerto and MI Ma'arif Pageraji Purwokerto were chosen to be the subject of this study with the consideration that the school has a good quality management system. This study aims to find the typology of quality management education in MI that is effective so that it can be replicated. Based on the findings of the data, it can be concluded as follows: (1) Quality planning conducted in MIN and MI Ma’arif pageraji Purwokerto through (a) improvement of teacher competence, through OJT activity (on the job trainning), (b) teacher. (c) Development of natural competence matrix. (d) Parent and community cooperation in establishing some madrasah programs. (2) Quality control system conducted in MIN and MI Ma’arif pageraji Purwokerto done through supervision activities. (3) Quality assurance conducted in MIN and MI Ma’arif pageraji Purwokerto done internally by madrasah and audited through accreditation activities run by the accreditation bodies of madrasah or other institutions externally. Keywords: Management model, quality of madrasah.

Improvement of separate elements of the techno-logy of cultivation of white cabbage in the conditions of the of the central region of the non-chernozem zone

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.V. Konstantinovich ◽  
◽  
A.S. Kuracheva ◽  
E.D. Binkevich
Keyword(s):  
Seed Treatment ◽  
Unit Area ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Stress Factors ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
White Cabbage ◽  
Sowing Seed

In conditions of climate change, when temperature and precipitation fluctuations occur more and more frequently during the growing season, it is necessary to obtain high quality seedlings with "immunity" to various stress factors, including high weediness, the damage from which is associated with a decrease in yield (by 25 -35%) and with a deterioration in the quality of agricultural products. Due to the imbalance in production technology, seedlings are often weakened, overgrown, with a low yield per unit area and survival rate in the field. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of PP for pre-sowing seed treatment to increase the competitiveness of seedlings in the field.

scholarly journals A COMPARISON OF STRUCTURED LIGHT SCANNING AND PHOTOGRAMMETRY FOR THE DIGITISATION OF PHYSICAL PROTOTYPES

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 11-20
Author(s):  
Owen Freeman Gebler ◽  
Mark Goudswaard ◽  
Ben Hicks ◽  
David Jones ◽  
Aydin Nassehi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Structured Light ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Specific Design ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Stage Design ◽  
Design Changes ◽  
Structured Light Scanning ◽  
Early Stage Design

AbstractPhysical prototyping during early stage design typically represents an iterative process. Commonly, a single prototype will be used throughout the process, with its form being modified as the design evolves. If the form of the prototype is not captured as each iteration occurs understanding how specific design changes impact upon the satisfaction of requirements is challenging, particularly retrospectively.In this paper two different systems for digitising physical artefacts, structured light scanning (SLS) and photogrammetry (PG), are investigated as means for capturing iterations of physical prototypes. First, a series of test artefacts are presented and procedures for operating each system are developed. Next, artefacts are digitised using both SLS and PG and resulting models are compared against a master model of each artefact. Results indicate that both systems are able to reconstruct the majority of each artefact's geometry within 0.1mm of the master, however, overall SLS demonstrated superior performance, both in terms of completion time and model quality. Additionally, the quality of PG models was far more influenced by the effort and expertise of the user compared to SLS.

Research on Triangular Mesh Simplification Algorithm of Virtual Object Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 271-272 ◽  
pp. 1410-1414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Ping Wang ◽  
Jian Wu Dang ◽  
Jin Yu Yang ◽  
Song Wang
Keyword(s):  
Triangular Mesh ◽  
Mesh Simplification ◽  
Virtual Object ◽  
Object Model ◽  
Model Simplification ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Weight Calculation ◽  
Edge Surface

To improve the model quality of mesh simplification, reduce the model deformation and the lost of the detail characteristics with multiple folding, the paper represents a triangular mesh simplification algorithm based on edge-surface folding. The algorithm introduces curvature characteristics of model vertexes into the weight calculation of effective points, and introduces weight of triangular facets at the same time. The facets with the smallest weight adjacent the candidate edge is shrunk. The experiment results show that the algorithm has provided a higher quality of model simplification and effectively kept the graphic features.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the annual balance of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since 1865

2009 ◽  
Vol 50 (50) ◽  
pp. 126-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Oleg Rybak ◽  
Johannes Oerlemans
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Energy Fluxes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Continuous Mass ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
High Elevations ◽  
Annual Balance ◽  
Almost Continuous

AbstractWe have reconstructed the annual balance of Vadret da Morteratsch, Engadine, Switzerland, with a two-dimensional energy-balance model for the period 1865–2005. The model takes into account a parameterization of the surface energy fluxes, an albedo that decreases exponentially with snow depth as well as the shading effect of the surrounding mountains. The model was first calibrated with a 5 year record of annual balance measurements made at 20 different sites on the glacier between 2001 and 2006 using meteorological data from surrounding weather stations as input. To force the model for the period starting in 1865, we employed monthly temperature and precipitation records from nearby valley stations. The model reproduces the observed annual balance reasonably well, except for the lower part during the warmest years. Most crucial to the results is the altitudinal precipitation gradient, but this factor is hard to quantify from the limited precipitation data at high elevations. The simulation shows an almost continuous mass loss since 1865, with short interruptions around 1920, 1935 and 1980. A trend towards a more negative annual balance can be observed since the beginning of the 1980s. The simulated cumulative mass balance for the entire period 1865–2005 was found to be –46mw.e.

Monthly Precipitation Forecast of Jiulong River Basin Based on Association Rule Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linjiang Nan ◽  
Mingxiang Yang ◽  
Jianqiu Li ◽  
Ningpeng Dong ◽  
Hejia Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Association Rule ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Jiulong River ◽  
Rule Analysis

scholarly journals Forecasts covering one month using a cut-cell model

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 875-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Steppeler ◽  
S.-H. Park ◽  
A. Dobler
Keyword(s):  
Cell Model ◽  
Control Model ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Cut Cell ◽  
Terrain Following ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper investigates the impact and potential use of the cut-cell vertical discretisation for forecasts covering five days and climate simulations. A first indication of the usefulness of this new method is obtained by a set of five-day forecasts, covering January 1989 with six forecasts. The model area was chosen to include much of Asia, the Himalayas and Australia. The cut-cell model LMZ (Lokal Modell with z-coordinates) provides a much more accurate representation of mountains on model forecasts than the terrain-following coordinate used for comparison. Therefore we are in particular interested in potential forecast improvements in the target area downwind of the Himalayas, over southeastern China, Korea and Japan. The LMZ has previously been tested extensively for one-day forecasts on a European area. Following indications of a reduced temperature error for the short forecasts, this paper investigates the model error for five days in an area influenced by strong orography. The forecasts indicated a strong impact of the cut-cell discretisation on forecast quality. The cut-cell model is available only for an older (2003) version of the model LM (Lokal Modell). It was compared using a control model differing by the use of the terrain-following coordinate only. The cut-cell model improved the precipitation forecasts of this old control model everywhere by a large margin. An improved, more transferable version of the terrain-following model LM has been developed since then under the name CLM (Climate version of the Lokal Modell). The CLM has been used and tested in all climates, while the LM was used for small areas in higher latitudes. The precipitation forecasts of the cut-cell model were compared also to the CLM. As the cut-cell model LMZ did not incorporate the developments for CLM since 2003, the precipitation forecast of the CLM was not improved in all aspects. However, for the target area downstream of the Himalayas, the cut-cell model considerably improved the prediction of the monthly precipitation forecast even in comparison with the modern CLM version. The cut-cell discretisation seems to improve in particular the localisation of precipitation, while the improvements leading from LM to CLM had a positive effect mainly on amplitude.

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