scholarly journals Development of a district level multifaceted first-response strategy to COVID–19 in a resource limited setting in Kerala, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 3735
Author(s):  
Raman Swathy Vaman ◽  
Mathew J. Valamparambil ◽  
Ramdas A. V. ◽  
Manoj A. T. ◽  
Basil Varghese ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
District Level ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Resource Limited ◽  
First Case ◽  
First Response ◽  
Before And After

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic that began in Wuhan in China has spread rapidly with cases currently confirmed in more than 200 countries worldwide. The first case of the outbreak in India was reported on 31st January 2020 in three medical students who returned to Kerala from Wuhan. We report the district level preparedness and response to the first case of COVID-19 infection confirmed in the district of Kasaragod, Kerala. The identification, diagnosis, clinical course and management of the case including surveillance and contact tracing are described. The district level actions before and after the identification of the first case provide a guidance to other resource limited settings regarding the preparedness and mitigation measures to be adopted in times of a pandemic. The evolution of strategies highlights the importance of coordination between district and state health authorities, district administration and line departments; rapid dissemination of health information, disaster preparedness and engagement of the community for surveillance support and home quarantine.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic in Djibouti: epidemiology and the response strategy followed to contain the virus during the first two months, 17 March to 16 May 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Elhakim ◽  
Saleh Banoita Tourab ◽  
Ahmed Zouiten
Keyword(s):  
Response Strategy ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Military Health ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Rapid Control ◽  
Early Case ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
Health Assets

Background: First cases of COVID-19 were reported from Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it progressed rapidly. On 30 January, WHO declared the new disease as a PHEIC, then as a Pandemic on 11 March. By mid-March, the virus spread widely; Djibouti was not spared and was hit by the pandemic with the first case detected on 17 March. Djibouti worked with WHO and other partners to develop a preparedness and response plan, and implemented a series of intervention measures. MoH together with its civilian and military partners, closely followed WHO recommended strategy based on four pillars: testing, isolating, early case management, and contact tracing. From 17 March to 16 May, Djibouti performed the highest per capita tests in Africa and isolated, treated and traced the contacts of each positive case, which allowed for a rapid control of the epidemic. Methods: COVID-19 data included in this study was collected through MoH Djibouti during the period from 17 March to 16 May 2020. Results: A total of 1,401 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were included in the study with 4 related deaths (CFR: 0.3%) and an attack rate of 0.15%. Males represented (68.4%) of the cases, with the age group 31-45 years old (34.2%) as the most affected. Djibouti conducted 17,532 tests, and was considered as a champion for COVID-19 testing in Africa with 18.2 tests per 1000 habitant. All positive cases were isolated, treated and had their contacts traced, which led to early and proactive diagnosis of cases and in turn yielded up to 95-98% asymptomatic cases. Recoveries reached 69% of the infected cases with R0 (0.91). The virus was detected in 4 regions in the country, with the highest percentage in the capital (83%). Conclusion: Djibouti responded to COVID-19 pandemic following an efficient and effective strategy, using a strong collaboration between civilian and military health assets that increased the response capacities of the country. Partnership, coordination, solidarity, proactivity and commitment were the pillars to confront COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic in Djibouti: Epidemiology and the response strategy followed to contain the virus during the first two months, 17 March to 16 May 2020

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243698
Author(s):  
Mohamed Elhakim ◽  
Saleh Banoita Tourab ◽  
Ahmed Zouiten
Keyword(s):  
Response Strategy ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Military Health ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Rapid Control ◽  
Early Case ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
Health Assets

First cases of COVID-19 were reported from Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it progressed rapidly. On 30 January, WHO declared the new disease as a PHEIC, then as a Pandemic on 11 March. By mid-March, the virus spread widely; Djibouti was not spared and was hit by the pandemic with the first case detected on 17 March. Djibouti worked with WHO and other partners to develop a preparedness and response plan, and implemented a series of intervention measures. MoH together with its civilian and military partners, closely followed WHO recommended strategy based on four pillars: testing, isolating, early case management, and contact tracing. From 17 March to 16 May, Djibouti performed the highest per capita tests in Africa and isolated, treated and traced the contacts of each positive case, which allowed for a rapid control of the epidemic. COVID-19 data included in this study was collected through MoH Djibouti during the period from 17 March to 16 May 2020. A total of 1,401 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were included in the study with 4 related deaths (CFR: 0.3%) and an attack rate of 0.15%. Males represented (68.4%) of the cases, with the age group 31–45 years old (34.2%) as the most affected. Djibouti conducted 17,532 tests, and was considered as a champion for COVID-19 testing in Africa with 18.2 tests per 1000 habitant. All positive cases were isolated, treated and had their contacts traced, which led to early and proactive diagnosis of cases and in turn yielded up to 95–98% asymptomatic cases. Recoveries reached 69% of the infected cases with R0 (0.91). The virus was detected in 4 regions in the country, with the highest percentage in the capital (83%). Djibouti responded to COVID-19 pandemic following an efficient and effective strategy, using a strong collaboration between civilian and military health assets that increased the response capacities of the country. Partnership, coordination, solidarity, proactivity and commitment were the pillars to confront COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Retarded Logistic Equation as a Universal Dynamic Model for the Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Shayak ◽  
Mohit M Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Logistic Equation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
City District ◽  
Public Health Authorities

ABSTRACTIn this work we propose the retarded logistic equation as a dynamic model for the spread of COVID-19 all over the world. This equation accounts for asymptomatic transmission, pre-symptomatic or latent transmission as well as contact tracing and isolation, and leads to a transparent definition of the instantaneous reproduction number R. For different parameter values, the model equation admits different classes of solutions. These solution classes correspond to, inter alia, containment of the outbreak via public health measures, exponential growth despite public health measures, containment despite reopening and second wave following reopening. We believe that the spread of COVID in every localized area such as a city, district or county can be accounted for by one of our solution classes. In regions where R > 1 initially despite aggressive epidemic management efforts, we find that if the mitigation measures are sustained, then it is still possible for R to dip below unity when far less than the region’s entire population is affected, and from that point onwards the outbreak can be driven to extinction in time. We call this phenomenon partial herd immunity. Our analysis indicates that COVID-19 is an extremely vicious and unpredictable disease which poses unique challenges for public health authorities, on account of which “case races” among various countries and states do not serve any purpose and present delusive appearances while ignoring significant determinants.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal tracing of pandemic spread from infection data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satyaki Roy ◽  
Preetom Biswas ◽  
Preetam Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Network Inference ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
New York State ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatiotemporal Models ◽  
Spread Of Infection

AbstractCOVID-19, a global pandemic caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 virus, has claimed millions of lives worldwide. Amid soaring contagion due to newer strains of the virus, it is imperative to design dynamic, spatiotemporal models to contain the spread of infection during future outbreaks of the same or variants of the virus. The reliance on existing prediction and contact tracing approaches on prior knowledge of inter- or intra-zone mobility renders them impracticable. We present a spatiotemporal approach that employs a network inference approach with sliding time windows solely on the date and number of daily infection numbers of zones within a geographical region to generate temporal networks capturing the influence of each zone on another. It helps analyze the spatial interaction among the hotspot or spreader zones and highly affected zones based on the flow of network contagion traffic. We apply the proposed approach to the daily infection counts of New York State as well as the states of USA to show that it effectively measures the phase shifts in the pandemic timeline. It identifies the spreaders and affected zones at different time points and helps infer the trajectory of the pandemic spread across the country. A small set of zones periodically exhibit a very high outflow of contagion traffic over time, suggesting that they act as the key spreaders of infection. Moreover, the strong influence between the majority of non-neighbor regions suggests that the overall spread of infection is a result of the unavoidable long-distance trips by a large number of people as opposed to the shorter trips at a county level, thereby informing future mitigation measures and public policies.

scholarly journals Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Plümper ◽  
Eric Neumayer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Summer School ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Holiday Period ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities

AbstractBackgroundThe Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany.MethodsCross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts.ResultsWe find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population.ConclusionsOur results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.

scholarly journals The effect of COVID19 pandemic restrictions on an urban rodent population

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Bedoya-Pérez ◽  
Michael P. Ward ◽  
Max Loomes ◽  
Iain S. McGregor ◽  
Mathew S. Crowther
Keyword(s):  
Binary Data ◽  
Sampling Interval ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Directional Change ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Bait Stations ◽  
Rodent Populations ◽  
The City

AbstractShortly after the enactment of restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19, various local government and public health authorities around the world reported an increased sighting of rats. Such reports have yet to be empirically validated. Here we combined data from multi-catch rodent stations (providing data on rodent captures), rodent bait stations (providing data on rodent activity) and residents’ complaints to explore the effects of a six week lockdown period on rodent populations within the City of Sydney, Australia. The sampling interval encompassed October 2019 to July 2020 with lockdown defined as the interval from April 1st to May 15th, 2020. Rodent captures and activity (visits to bait stations) were stable prior to lockdown. Captures showed a rapid increase and then decline during the lockdown, while rodent visits to bait stations declined throughout this period. There were no changes in the frequency of complaints during lockdown relative to before and after lockdown. There was a non-directional change in the geographical distribution of indices of rodent abundance suggesting that rodents redistributed in response to resource scarcity. We hypothesize that lockdown measures initially resulted in increased rodent captures due to sudden shortage of human-derived food resources. Rodent visits to bait stations might not show this pattern due to the nature of the binary data collected, namely the presence or absence of a visit. Relocation of bait stations driven by pest management goals may also have affected the detection of any directional spatial effect. We conclude that the onset of COVID-19 may have disrupted commensal rodent populations, with possible implications for the future management of these ubiquitous urban indicator species.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Mobility, exposure, and epidemiological timelines of COVID-19 infections in China outside Hubei province

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Fan Liu ◽  
Xiao-Ke Xu ◽  
Ye Wu
Keyword(s):  
Hubei Province ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Virus Exposure ◽  
Public Disclosures ◽  
Local Health Authorities

AbstractThe 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is pseudonymously linked to more than 100 million cases in the world as of January 2021. High-quality data are needed but lacking in the understanding of and fighting against COVID-19. We provide a complete and updating hand-coded line-list dataset containing detailed information of the cases in China and outside the epicenter in Hubei province. The data are extracted from public disclosures by local health authorities, starting from January 19. This dataset contains a very rich set of features for the characterization of COVID-19’s epidemiological properties, including individual cases’ demographic information, travel history, potential virus exposure scenario, contacts with known infections, and timelines of symptom onset, quarantine, infection confirmation, and hospitalization. These cases can be considered the baseline COVID-19 transmissibility under extreme mitigation measures, and therefore, a reference for comparative scientific investigation and public policymaking.

Perbandingan harga saham, volume transaksi dan return saham sebelum dan sesudah terjadi pandemi covid-19 pada PT Agung Podomoro Land, Tbk

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 720
Author(s):  
Anggun Putri Romadhina ◽  
Eka Kusuma Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Paired Sample ◽  
First Case ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Stock Transaction

The first Covid-19 case in Indonesia was announced on March 2, 2020. This study aims to determine whether there is a significant difference in stock prices, stock transaction volume and stock returns due to the COVID-19 pandemic (case study at PT. Agung Podomoro Land, Tbk). This research data was taken 90 days before and 90 days after the announcement of the first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia. The data was processed by paired sample t-test, using SPSS version 20. From the results of data processing, it was shown that there was a significant difference in stock prices before and after the announcement of the first case of covid-19 in Indonesia. This is indicated by a significance value of 0.000 < 0.05 where the stock price has decreased compared to before the Covid-19 case. Meanwhile, the volume of stock transactions also showed a significant difference with a significance value of 0.007 <0.05, where the volume of stock transactions after the announcement showed a decrease. Likewise, stock returns show a significant difference with a significance value of 0.025 < 0.05 where stock returns have decreased after the announcement of the first case of covid-10 in Indonesia.  

POLICY OF PROMOTING ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION IN TIMES OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN IN INDIA: A MEDICAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS.

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
Neha Sharma ◽  
Ayush Anand ◽  
Shreyas Joshi ◽  
Samrat Ray
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Application ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Given ◽  
Constitutional Analysis

BACKGROUND: India, with the declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, started imposing restrictions in the country th and initiated a nationwide lockdown under Section 6 of the Disaster Management Act, 2005 on 24 March 2020, followed by four phases of lockdown and then gradual unlock of the country. The rationale behind the same was to avoid social contact. Alcohol dispensing was also stopped during this time and was among the rst services to be reopened by the States. We propose in this paper that this lifting of ban on alcohol sale during the pandemic has led to a signicant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the country. METHODS: This is a prospective, observational study, done by collecting data from the Aargya Setu App, which is a mobile application launched by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on 2 April 2020 for contact tracing and elf assessment of COVID-19. The data of cumulative number of cases in 12 selected states of the country were compared before and after the lift of ban of alcohol and signicance was shown by the paired t test. RESULTS: The number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country during nationwide lockdown with simultaneous ban on alcohol sale when compared to cumulative number of cases after the lift of ban of alcohol sale during Lockdown and initial Unlock is statistically signicant (p = 0.04) CONCLUSION: We found that the decision to restart the sale of Alcohol could have been a factor for rise in number of cases in the country in the given timeframe. The decision to start the sale has also not been in accordance with the Indian Constitution and against the nation's founding ethics.

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