scholarly journals Confirmed and Unreported COVID-19 Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mazbahul G Ahamad ◽  
Fahian Tanin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Reporting Discrepancy ◽  
Death Count

Objective: We aim to assess the reporting discrepancy and the difference between confirmed and unreported COVID-19-like death counts.Study Design: The study is based on time-series data.Methods: We used publicly available data to explore the differences between confirmed death counts and deaths with Codiv-19 symptoms between March 8, 2020, and July 11, 2020, in Bangladesh.Results: During the week ending May 9, 2020, the unreported COVID-19-like death count was higher than the confirmed COVID-19 death count; however, it was lower in the following weeks. On average, unreported COVID-19-like death counts were similar to the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the same period. However, the reporting authority neither considers these deaths nor adjusts for potential seasonal influenza or other related deaths, which might produce incomplete COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. Conclusions: Documenting unreported deaths with COVID-19 symptoms needs to be included in provisional death counts because it is essential to estimate a robust COVID-19 mortality rate and to offer data-driven pandemic response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare an acceptable guideline for COVID-19 death reporting.

scholarly journals Confirmed and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mazbahul G Ahamad ◽  
Fahian Tanin ◽  
Byomkes Talukder
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Reporting Discrepancy ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Secondary Time

Objective: To assess the reporting discrepancy between officially confirmed COVID-19 death counts and unreported COVID-19-like illness (CLI) death counts. Study Design: The study is based on secondary time-series data. Methods: We used publicly available data to explore the differences between confirmed COVID-19 death counts and deaths with probable COVID-19 symptoms in Bangladesh between March 8, 2020, and July 18, 2020. Both tabular analysis and statistical tests were performed. Results: During the week ending May 9, 2020, the unreported CLI death count was higher than the confirmed COVID-19 death count; however, it was lower in the following weeks. On average, unreported CLI death counts were almost equal to the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the study period. However, the reporting authority neither considers CLI deaths nor adjusts for potential seasonal influenza-like illness or other related deaths, which might produce incomplete and unreliable COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. Conclusions: Deaths with probable COVID-19 symptoms needs to be included in provisional death counts in order to estimate an accurate COVID-19 mortality rate and to offer data-driven pandemic response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare a comprehensive guideline for reporting COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Optimal timing of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for acute cholangitis associated with distal malignant biliary obstruction

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Namyoung Park ◽  
Sang Hyub Lee ◽  
Min Su You ◽  
Joo Seong Kim ◽  
Gunn Huh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography ◽  
Biliary Obstruction ◽  
Acute Cholangitis ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Malignant Biliary Obstruction ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Endoscopic Retrograde ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Distal Malignant Biliary Obstruction

Abstract Background There is a lack of studies regarding the optimal timing for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with cholangitis caused by distal malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). This study aims to investigate the optimal timing of ERCP in patients with acute cholangitis associated with distal MBO with a naïve papilla. Methods A total of 421 patients with acute cholangitis, associated with distal MBO, were enrolled for this study. An urgent ERCP was defined as being an ERCP performed within 24 h following emergency room (ER) arrival, and early ERCP was defined as an ERCP performed between 24 and 48 h following ER arrival. We evaluated both 30-day and 180-day mortality as primary outcomes, according to the timing of the ERCP. Results The urgent ERCP group showed the lowest 30-day mortality rate (2.2%), as compared to the early and delayed ERCP groups (4.3% and 13.5%) (P < 0.001). The 180-day mortality rate was lowest in the urgent ERCP group, followed by early ERCP and delayed ERCP groups (39.4%, 44.8%, 60.8%; P = 0.006). A subgroup analysis showed that in both the primary distal MBO group, as well as in the moderate-to-severe cholangitis group, the urgent ERCP had significantly improved in both 30-day and 180-day mortality rates. However, in the secondary MBO and mild cholangitis groups, the difference in mortality rate between urgent, early, and delayed ERCP groups was not significant. Conclusions In patients with acute cholangitis associated with distal MBO, urgent ERCP might be helpful in improving the prognosis, especially in patients with primary distal MBO or moderate-to-severe cholangitis.

Lamb mortality in Scottish hill flocks

1963 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. G. Gunn ◽  
J. F. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
The Difference

SUMMARY1. Records on lamb mortality from birth to marking at approximately 6 weeks are summarised for four seasons in one Cheviot and three Scottish Blackface flocks and discussed in relation to the breed, environmental and management differences existing on the three farms of Sourhope, Roxburghshire; Lephinmore, Argyllshire and Glensaugh, Kincardineshire.2. The mortality rates in single-born lambs from three-year-old and older ewes, following hill lambings, were 12% and 6% respectively in the Cheviot and Blackface flocks at Sourhope and 14% in the Blackface flock at Lephinmore. In the Blackface flock at Glensaugh, the mortality rate following regular pre-lambing feeding and lambing on cultivated pastures was 5%.3. There was considerably heavier mortality in twin-born lambs, and in single-born lambs from two-year-old ewes, notably as a result of increased loss subsequent to birth.4. Among single-born lambs, more males were lost than females, the difference being between 1% and 8% according to the farm and being largely due to a greater frequency of difficult births among males.5. Lambs with birth weights markedly heavier or lighter than average had a higher percentage of mortality.6. An abnormal incidence of loss from difficult birth in a Cheviot sub-flock in 1957 is described.

scholarly journals Contribution of Alcohol to Hypertension Mortality in Russia

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. E. Razvodovsky
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Binge Drinking ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Series Analysis

Background. Hypertension (HTN) is reported to be the leading contributor to premature death globally. Considerable research evidence suggests that excessive alcohol intake (binge drinking) is an independent risk factor for HTN. It was repeatedly emphasized that binge drinking is a major contributor to a high cardiovascular mortality rate in Russia.Objective. The aim of this study was to examine the aggregate-level relation between alcohol consumption and HTN mortality rates in Russia.Method. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female HTN mortality data for the period 1980–2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time-series analysis. The level of alcohol consumption per capita has been estimated using the indirect method based on alcohol psychoses incidence rate and employing ARIMA time-series analysis.Results. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female HTN mortality rates: a 1-liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 6.3% increase in the male HTN mortality rate and in a 4.9% increase in female HTN mortality rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 57.5% of all male HTN deaths and 48.6% of all female HTN deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol.Conclusions. The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol is an important contributor to the high HTN mortality rate in the Russian Federation. The findings from the present study have important implications with to regards HTN mortality prevention, indicating that a restrictive alcohol policy can be considered as an effective measure of prevention in countries with a higher rate of alcohol consumption.

scholarly journals Salmon bias effect as hypothesis of the lower mortality rates among immigrants in Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anteo Di Napoli ◽  
Alessandra Rossi ◽  
Gianfranco Alicandro ◽  
Martina Ventura ◽  
Luisa Frova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Country Of Origin ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Bias Effect ◽  
Salmon Bias ◽  
Lower Socioeconomic ◽  
National Cohort ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Standardized Mortality Rate

AbstractCompared with natives, immigrants have lower all-cause mortality rates, despite their lower socioeconomic status, an epidemiological paradox generally explained by the healthy migrant effect. Another hypothesis is the so-called salmon bias effect: “statistically immortal” subjects return to their country of origin when they expect to die shortly, but their deaths are not registered in the statistics of the country of residence. This underestimation of deaths determines an artificially low immigrant mortality rate. We aimed to estimate the potential salmon bias effect on differences in mortality rates between Italians and immigrants. We used a national cohort of all Italians registered in the 2011 census and followed up for mortality from 2012 to 2016. Mortality data were retrieved from the Causes of Death Register, which included all deaths occurring in the country and the Resident Population Register, which collects also the deaths occurring abroad. We assumed as a possible salmon bias event the death of an immigrant resident in Italy that died in his/her country of origin. Considering the deaths occurring in the country of origin, we observed an 18.1% increase in the overall mortality rates for immigrants and an increase of 23.7% in the age-standardized mortality rate. Mortality rates of immigrants resident in Italy, calculated without taking into account the deaths occurring in the country of origin, are certainly underestimated. However, the salmon bias only partly explains the difference in mortality rates between immigrants and Italians.

scholarly journals Mortality of the population of the Omsk region as a result of acute poisoning and exposure to ­toxic substances in 2009–2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-90
Author(s):  
A V Sabaev ◽  
O P Goleva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Statistical Processing ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Acute Poisoning ◽  
Graphical Analysis ◽  
Toxic Effects ◽  
Toxic Substances ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Demographic Indicators

Aim. To study the dynamics of mortality rates in the Omsk region as a result of acute poisoning and toxic effects for 20092018. Methods. In the statistical processing of research materials, alternative (intensive indicators) analysis and graphical analysis methods were used, time-series parameters were calculated, time series was modelled on the basis of the approximating function using a polynomial of the 2nd degree. Results. In the Omsk region the mortality rate recorded due to acute poisoning and exposure to toxic substances decreased by 2.0 times during the survey period, including decrease in the urban population by 2.3 times and among rural residents by 1.5 times. The mortality rate of the population due to the toxic effects of alcohol and its surrogates was decreased by 2.0 times, due to narcotic substances 6.5 times, due to corrosive poisons 2.0 times, due to toxic gases 2.1 times, due to non-classified poisons 3.0 times. The dynamics of mortality as a result of drug poisoning and poisoning by industrial poisons in the region was unstable, decrease in the level of indicators by the end of the analyzed period is statistically insignificant. Since 2015, fatal cases of toxic effects of psychodysleptics based on modern modified substances with narcotic effects were recorded in the region; by the end of the study period, mortality increased by 77.0% due to this pathology, which has a statistically significant confirmation. Conclusion. With an obvious improvement in the medical and demographic indicators due to poisoning and toxic effects in the region, there are changes associated with the emergence and spread of new chemicals with narcotic effects that affect the formation of the toxicological situation in the region.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Trend of Fetal Mortality Rates among Working and Jobless Households in Japan, 1995–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4810
Author(s):  
Tasuku Okui
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Fetal Mortality ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference

This study aimed to identify differences in the trends of artificial and spontaneous fetal mortality rates between working and jobless households depending on ages, periods, and birth cohorts in Japan. Vital Statistics data from 1995 to 2019 and age groups in 5–year increments from 15 to 19 years through 45 to 49 years were used. Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was used to evaluate changes in each of the outcomes. As a result, the difference in maternal age–standardized rate of both the artificial and spontaneous fetal mortality rates between the two types of households decreased in the periods analyzed. However, there was a statistically significant difference in the mortality rate between jobless and working households, regardless of maternal ages, periods, and cohorts for the artificial fetal mortality rate. A statistically significant difference was also observed for the spontaneous fetal mortality rates in some maternal ages, periods, and cohorts. In addition, the trend of birth cohort effects was particularly different between the two types of households for both the artificial and spontaneous fetal mortality rates.

scholarly journals ESOPHAGEAL CANCER MORTALITY IN BRAZIL: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS FROM THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE STUDY

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-106
Author(s):  
Max Moura de OLIVEIRA ◽  
Igor Pereira Bertoncini SILVA ◽  
Renato TEIXEIRA ◽  
Deborah Carvalho MALTA ◽  
Betine Pinto Moehlecke ISER
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Global Burden Of Disease ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
World Population ◽  
Standardized Mortality Rate

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: In the world, around 450,000 new cases of esophageal cancer are diagnosed each year. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trend of esophageal cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 1990-2017. METHODS: A time series study using data on mortality from esophageal cancer in residents ≥30 years in Brazil from 1990 to 2017. Data was estimated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and analyzed according to sex, age group and federal unit of Brazil. The standardized rates according to age were calculated by the direct method using the standard GBD world population. Annual average percentage change and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated for mortality by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The age-standardized mortality rate in males was 20.6 in 1990 and 17.6/100,000 in 2017, increasing according to age, being 62.4 (1990) and 54.7 (2017) for ≥70 years. In women, the age-standardized mortality rate was 5.9 in 1990 and 4.2/100,000 in 2017. There was a reduction in mortality rates in all age groups and both sexes with great variation among the states. CONCLUSION: Despite the high mortality rates for esophageal cancer in Brazil, the trend was decreasing, but with regional differences. Mortality was around four times higher in men.

scholarly journals COVID19 EN POBLACIÓN RESIDENTE DE ZONAS GEOGRÁFICAS A ALTURAS SUPERIORES A 2500 m.s.n.m.

SITUA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Anahi Cardona Rivero ◽  
Manuel Montoya
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
A Value ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Population Numbers

RESUMEN. -El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar las tasas de mortalidad por COVID19 en las regiones a alturas superiores de 2500 m.s.n.m. en comparación a las tasas de mortalidad por COVID19 de los países respectivos. Para lo cual se realizó un estudio de tipo descriptivo transversal comparativo, se revisaron 20 regiones de 7 países con ciudades de más de 100 000 habitantes que se encuentran por encima de 2500 m.s.n.m. Se registraron los casos de fallecidos por COVID19, cantidad de población y las tasas de mortalidad al 30 de abril del 2020. Los resultados de las tasas de mortalidad fueron evaluados con pruebas de normalidad Kolmogorov y Smirnov y Shapiro Wilk. Para evaluar la diferencia entre las medias de las tasas de mortalidad se utilizó la prueba de Wilcoxon con signos para muestras relacionadas se trabajó a un nivel de confianza del 95%, obteniendo un valor de p= 0,015 < 0,05; que demuestra la diferencia estadísticamente significativa. Se concluye que el COVID19 presenta menores tasas de mortalidad en zonas geográficas con alturas superiores a 2500 m.s.n.m.Palabras clave: altura, 2500 m.s.n.m., COVID19, tasa de mortalidad.ABSTRACTThe objective of the study was to evaluate the mortality rates by COVID19 in the regions at altitudes higher than 2500 m.s.n.m., compared to the mortality rates by COVID19 of the respective countries. For this purpose, a comparative cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out, reviewing 20 regions of 7 countries with cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants that are above 2500 meters above sea level. Cases of deaths due to COVID19, population numbers and mortality rates as of April 30, 2020 were recorded. The results of the mortality rates were evaluated with Kolmogorov and Smirnov and Shapiro Wilk normality tests. To evaluate the difference between the means of mortality rates, the Wilcoxon test with signs for related samples was used at a 95% confidence level, obtaining a value of p= 0.015 < 0.05; which demonstrates the statistically significant difference. It is concluded that the COVID19 presents lower mortality rates in geographical areas with altitudes higher than 2500 meters above sea levelKeywords: altitude, 2500 m.s.n.m., COVID19, mortality rate

Initial Report of Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery as Sole Therapy for Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation: Operative and Intermediate-Term Outcome

2005 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Harris ◽  
Avinash Reddy ◽  
Dorothee Aepplii ◽  
Betsy Wilson ◽  
Robert W. Emery
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mitral Regurgitation ◽  
Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery ◽  
Bypass Surgery ◽  
Artery Bypass ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Off Pump ◽  
Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation ◽  
Pump Coronary Artery Bypass

Background: Patients undergoing on-pump coronary artery bypass surgery (CAB) with coexistent moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation (IMR) have a significant mortality rate compared to patients without MR. The mortality rate is elevated both perioperatively (0%-12% mortality), as well as over a 1- and 2-year postoperative period (15%-25%). It is thought that some patients are best served by off-pump CAB (OPCAB); however, outcomes have not been reported for such patients with coexistent moderate IMR. Methods: We reviewed the independent database of patients undergoing OPCAB between 1995 and 2002 to find 989 patients, 17 (1.7%) of whom had moderate or moderately severe MR. Patients were contacted and clinical and echocardiographic data were obtained. Results: The patient group consisted of 11 men and 6 women (age, 65 15 years). The study group had a PA pressure of 52 14, creatinine of 1.6 0.7, and left ventricular ejection fraction of 43 18. Nine patients (53%) had advanced New York Heart Association (class III-IV) heart failure. Mortality rates perioperatively and at 1, 2, and 3 years were 0%, 6.25% (1/16), 12.5% (2/16), and 38% (4/8), respectively. At the time of this report, no patient had returned for a reparative procedure. Conclusion: In patients felt to be best served by OPCAB with ischemic MR, operative and intermediate mortality rates are remarkably similar to those previously reported for on-pump series. These data underscore the continued need to understand which patients undergoing CAB require mitral valve problems to be addressed at the time of surgery.

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