scholarly journals A Simple Ecological Model Captures the Transmission Pattern of COVID-19 Outbreak in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Jinmei Zhang ◽  
Menglan Cao ◽  
Cang Hui
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Confidence Limit ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transmission Pattern ◽  
Final Number ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background The rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), initially reported in the city of Wuhan in China, and quickly transmitted to the entire nation and beyond, has become an international public health emergency. Estimating the final number of infection cases and the turning point (time with the fastest spreading rate) is crucial to assessing and improving the national and international control measures currently being applied.Methods We develop a simple model based on infectious growth with a time-varying infection rate, and estimate the final number of infections and the turning point using data updated daily from 3 February 2020, when China escalated its initial public health measures, to 10 February.Results Our model provides an extremely good fit to the existing data and therefore a reasonable estimate of the time-varying infection rate that has largely captured the transmission pattern of this epidemic outbreak. Our estimation suggests that (i) the final number of infections in China could reach 78,000 with an upper 95% confidence limit of 88,880; (ii) the turning point of the fastest spread was on the 4th or the 5th of February; and (iii) the projected period for the end of the outbreak (i.e., when 95% of the final predicted number of infection is reached) will be the 24th of February, with an upper 95% confidence limit on the 19th of March.Conclusions Our results suggest that the current control measures in China are excellent, and more than sufficient to contain the spread of this highly infectious novel coronavirus, and that the application of such measures could be considered internationally for the global control of this outbreak.

scholarly journals A simple ecological model captures the transmission pattern of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Jinmei Zhang ◽  
Menglan Cao ◽  
Cang Hui
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Confidence Limit ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transmission Pattern ◽  
Final Number ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), initially reported in the city of Wuhan in China, and quickly transmitted to the entire nation and beyond, has become an international public health emergency. Estimating the final number of infection cases and the turning point (time with the fastest spreading rate) is crucial to assessing and improving the national and international control measures currently being applied. In this paper we develop a simple model based on infectious growth with a time-varying infection rate, and estimate the final number of infections and the turning point using data updated daily from 3 February 2020, when China escalated its initial public health measures, to 10 February. Our model provides an extremely good fit to the existing data and therefore a reasonable estimate of the time-varying infection rate that has largely captured the transmission pattern of this epidemic outbreak. Our estimation suggests that (i) the final number of infections in China could reach 78,000 with an upper 95% confidence limit of 88,880; (ii) the turning point of the fastest spread was on the 4th or the 5th of February; and (iii) the projected period for the end of the outbreak (i.e., when 95% of the final predicted number of infection is reached) will be the 24th of February, with an upper 95% confidence limit on the 19th of March. This suggests that the current control measures in China are excellent, and more than sufficient to contain the spread of this highly infectious novel coronavirus, and that the application of such measures could be considered internationally for the global control of this outbreak.

scholarly journals The Role of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Outbreak Maps on the Internet in the Prediction and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
yufang Cao ◽  
Rui Qiu ◽  
Chao Ji ◽  
Zhidian Wu ◽  
Yijun Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Multiple Organ ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemic Area ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract BackgroundA novel coronavirus (2019-nCOV) has attracted worldwide attention since December 2019 when it appeared in Wuhan, China. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) can cause respiratory distress syndrome or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and be life-threatening. Covid-19 incidence can be reduced by using an outbreak map based on Geoinformatics. MethodsThis article introduces geographic mapping on the Internet and uses epidemic maps such as rank circles, choropleth rendering, overlay analysis and animation and other technologies to guide people’s behavior, reduce entry into areas with severe epidemics, and prevent new crowd infections. ResultsBy using various epidemic maps, households can reduce the access of people to the epidemic area (especially travellers to potentially at-risk areas), reduce the possibility of COVID-19 infection, and facilitate the timely diagnosis and treatment of fevered patients or suspected COVID-19. In addition, public health managers can intuitively understand the dynamics of the epidemic and spatial analysis of trends in outbreak dynamics and COVID-19 patterns helped to assist the public health sector and to evaluate/revise current control measures. ConclusionThe purpose of these online epidemic data collect and visualize is to notify travellers and assist the public or to analyzing the spatial and current trends and patterns of COVID-19 for public health authorities in assessing/revising current control measures.

scholarly journals Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Emerging and Future Challenges for Dental and Oral Medicine

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 481-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Meng ◽  
F. Hua ◽  
Z. Bian
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Dental Practitioners ◽  
The World ◽  
Essential Knowledge ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), originating in Wuhan, China, has become a major public health challenge for not only China but also countries around the world. The World Health Organization announced that the outbreaks of the novel coronavirus have constituted a public health emergency of international concern. As of February 26, 2020, COVID-19 has been recognized in 34 countries, with a total of 80,239 laboratory-confirmed cases and 2,700 deaths. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the epidemic situation. Due to the characteristics of dental settings, the risk of cross infection can be high between patients and dental practitioners. For dental practices and hospitals in areas that are (potentially) affected with COVID-19, strict and effective infection control protocols are urgently needed. This article, based on our experience and relevant guidelines and research, introduces essential knowledge about COVID-19 and nosocomial infection in dental settings and provides recommended management protocols for dental practitioners and students in (potentially) affected areas.

scholarly journals An interim review of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. e2020006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukhyun Ryu ◽  
Byung Chul Chun
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

OBJECTIVES: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China is currently recognized as a public health emergency of global concern.METHODS: We reviewed the currently available literature to provide up-to-date guidance on control measures to be implemented by public health authorities.RESULTS: Some of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019-nCoV have been identified. However, there remain considerable uncertainties, which should be considered when providing guidance to public health authorities on control measures.CONCLUSIONS: Additional studies incorporating more detailed information from confirmed cases would be valuable.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Early Dynamic Trends in Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: A Modeling Framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huazhen Lin ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Hong Gao ◽  
Jinyu Nie ◽  
Qiao Fan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) represents a significant public health threat globally. Here we describe efforts to compare epidemic growth, size and peaking time for countries in Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Australia in the early epidemic phase.MethodsUsing the time series of cases reported from January 20, 2020 to February 13, 2020 and transportation data from December 1, 2019 to January 23, 2020 we have built a novel time-varying growth model to predict the epidemic trend in China. We extended our method, using cases reported from January 26, 2020 - or the date of the earliest case reported, to April 9, 2020 to predict future epidemic trend and size in 41 countries. We estimated the impact of control measures on the epidemic trend.ResultsOur time-varying growth model yielded high concordance in the predicted epidemic size and trend with the observed figures in C hina. Among the other 41 countries, the peak time has been observed in 28 countries before or around April 9, 2020; the peak date and epidemic size were highly consistent with our estimates. We predicted the remaining countries would peak in April or May 2020, except India in July and Pakistan in August. The epidemic trajectory would reach the plateau in May or June for the majority of countries in the current wave. Countries that could emerge to be new epidemic centers are India, Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia with a prediction of 105 cases for these countries. The effective reproduction number Rt displayed a downward trend with time across countries, revealing the impact of the intervention remeasures i.e. social distancing. Rt remained the highest in the UK (median 2.62) and the US (median 2.19) in the fourth week after the epidemic onset.ConclusionsNew epidemic centers are expected to continue to emerge across the whole world. Greater challenges such as those in the healthcare system would be faced by developing countries in hotspots. A domestic approach to curb the pandemic must align with joint international efforts to effectively control the spread of COVID-19. Our model promotes a reliable transmissibility characterization and epidemic forecasting using the incidence of cases in the early epidemic phase.

scholarly journals Beyond the Disease: Contextualized Implications of COVID-19 for Children and Young People Living in Eastern and Southern Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaymarlin Govender ◽  
Richard G. Cowden ◽  
Patrick Nyamruze ◽  
Russell Armstrong ◽  
Luann Hatane
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Young People ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
Eastern And Southern Africa ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The COVID-19 pandemic has created extraordinary challenges and prompted remarkable social changes around the world. The implications of the novel coronavirus and the public health control measures that have been implemented to mitigate its impact are likely to be accompanied by a unique set of consequences for specific populations living in low income-countries that have fragile health systems and pervasive social-structural vulnerabilities. This paper discusses the implications of COVID-19 and related public health interventions for children and young people living in Eastern and Southern Africa. Actionable prevention, care, and health promotion initiatives are proposed to attenuate the negative effects of the pandemic and government-enforced movement restrictions on children and young people.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction numbers estimation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cheng ◽  
Zeyi Liu ◽  
Guangquan Cheng ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Abstract From December 31, 2019, a large-scale 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in China. Tracking and analyzing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control for COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control. The number of newly infected cases in 25 China’s worst cities for COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analyzed by using a estimate time-varying reproduction numbers method and a serial correlation method. The results shown that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend as a whole, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities were effective and the risk of infection was decreasing due to their R had dropped below 1 on February 10, 2020 and the average decline of R in the past 5 days was greater than 0, while cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi were still difficult to effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was also greater than 1.

scholarly journals The COVID-OUT study protocol: COVID-19 outbreak investigation to understand workplace SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Yiqun Chen ◽  
Christina Atchison ◽  
Barry Atkinson ◽  
Chris Barber ◽  
Allan Bennett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Outbreak Investigation ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Surface Sampling ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
The United Kingdom

Preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and protecting people from COVID-19 is the most significant public health challenge faced in recent years. COVID-19 outbreaks are occurring in workplaces and evidence is needed to support effective strategies to prevent and control these outbreaks. Investigations into these outbreaks are routinely undertaken by public health bodies and regulators in the United Kingdom (UK); however, such investigations are typically disparate in nature with a lack of consistency across all investigations, preventing meaningful analysis of the data collected. The COVID-OUT (COVID-19 Outbreak investigation to Understand Transmission) study aims to collect a consistent set of data in a systematic way from workplaces that are experiencing outbreaks, to understand SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk factors, transmission routes, and the role they play in the COVID-19 outbreaks. Suitable outbreak sites are identified from public health bodies. Following employer consent to participate, the study will recruit workers from workplaces where there are active outbreaks. The study will utilise data already collected as part of routine public health outbreak investigations and collect additional data through a comprehensive questionnaire, viral and serologic testing of workers, surface sampling, viral genome sequencing, and an environmental assessment of building plans, ventilation and current control measures. At each site, a detailed investigation will be carried out to evaluate transmission routes. A case-control approach will be used to compare workers who have and have not had SARS-CoV-2 infections during the outbreak period to assess transmission risk factors. Data from different outbreaks will be combined for pooled analyses to identify common risk factors, as well as factors that differ between outbreaks. The COVID-OUT study can contribute to a better understanding of why COVID-19 outbreaks associated with workplaces occur and how to prevent these outbreaks from happening in the future.

scholarly journals The impacts of the transgenic mosquito on man and the environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 158-176
Author(s):  
Agnaldo Plácido da Silva ◽  
Eloá Jessica Mendes dos Santos Plácido ◽  
Walber Breno de Souza Moraes
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Aedes Aegypti ◽  
Genetic Manipulation ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Constant Density ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
The Individual

One of the biggest challenges currently for public health in Brazil and worldwide are vector-borne diseases, and current control measures are inefficient. Mosquitoes are among the vectors of various diseases, because they are hematophagous, females require blood in the ovulation period for reproduction and once contaminated, the mosquito can contain bacteria, protozoa and viruses that are allocated in their salivary glands, thus infecting the individual directly into the bloodstream. Aedes aegypti is responsible for the diseases: dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever. The forms of control for vector mosquitoes so far are ineffective, and with this several technologies have been developed as alternatives in the control and combat of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. With recent approvals for the release of genetically modified insects, there is a need for more detailed studies to assess their ecological potential and evolutionary effects. These effects can occur in two phases: a transient phase when the focal population changes in density, and a steady state phase when it reaches a new and constant density. With the innovations in vector control through genetically modified insects give us a new perspective in relation to genetic manipulation. This study aims to evaluate the potential effects of a rapid change in the density of the Aedes aegypti mosquito related to biological control through the genetically modified mosquito. So we wonder, can biotechnology be a solution to public health problems in the case of the Aedes aegypti mosquito or a problem? Since the transformation or modifications of these living beings in laboratories are new techniques that so far it is impossible to know what the long-term consequences will be.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with 2019-nCoV

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Billy Quilty ◽  
Sam Clifford ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Rosalind M. Eggo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
New Information ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

As the number of novel coronavirus cases grows both inside and outside of China, public health authorities require evidence on the effectiveness of control measures such as thermal screening of arrivals at airports. We evaluated the effectiveness of exit and entry screening for 2019-nCoV infection. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46.5% (95%CI: 35.9 to 57.7) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on the incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and the proportion of cases which are asymptomatic. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travellers. We developed an online tool so that results can be updated as new information becomes available.

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