scholarly journals Analyses of the Duration times of COVID-19 Epidemic at Various Time-Points in 11 Severely Affected Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cao Chen ◽  
Qi Shi ◽  
Xiao-Ping Dong

Abstract Background COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 200 different countries and territories and caused more than 4.5 million infected cases and 310,000 deaths worldwide. Methods We collected the daily reported infected cases in 11 mostly affected countries from governmental and professional websites, including China, South Korea, France, USA, Italy, Germany, Spain, UK, Iran, Turkey and Russia. The duration times of the epidemic from the day with more than 100 cases (>100) to the day with less than 100 cases (<100) in the individual countries were comparably analyzed based on the alterations of the numbers and ratios of the daily reported cases. Meanwhile, the daily Rt values each country were separately calculated. Results We found that the duration times of decreasing period were much longer than that of increasing period. Compared with other countries, China and South Korea showed remarkably short duration times, which was likely associated with the strictly implementation of the control measures. The Rt values of all tested countries reduced to around 1.0 on the day with the largest number of cases. Conclusion The alteration of the daily Rt value seems to be related more closely with the changes of the ratios of daily cases, rather than the absolute numbers of daily cases in one country, meanwhile the implementation of strictly tailored control measures will greatly reduce the duration of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Author(s):  
Yun-Jung Kang

Abstract As of 25 July 2021, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported 1,422 new COVID-19 cases, 188,848 total cases, and 2.073 total deaths (1.10% fatality rates). Since the first SARS-CoV-2 case was reported, efforts to find a treatment and vaccine against COVID-19 have been widespread. Four vaccines are on the WHO’s emergency use listing and are approved of their usage; BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222, and Ad26.COV2.S. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 need at least 14 days to achieve effectiveness. Thus, people should abide by prevention and control measures, including wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing. However, a lot of new cases were reported after vaccinations, as many people did not follow the prevention control measures before the end of the 14 days period. There is no doubt we need to break free from mask mandates. But let us not decide the timing in haste. Even if the mask mandates are eased, they should be changed depending on the number of reported cases, vaccinations, as well as prevention and control measures on how circumstances are changing under the influence of mutant coronavirus.


2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Mitchener-Nissen

When assessing any security technology which impacts upon privacy, whether this constitutes a new technology or the novel application of existing technologies, we should do so by examining the combined effect of all security interventions currently employed within a society. This contrasts with the prevailing system whereby the impact of a new security technology is predominantly assessed on an individual basis by a subjective balancing of the security benefits of that technology against any reductions in concomitant rights, such as privacy and liberty. I contend that by continuing to focus on the individual effect, as opposed to the combined effects, of security technologies within a society the likelihood of sleep-walking into (or indeed waking-up in) an absolute surveillance society moves from a possible future to the logically inevitable future. This conclusion is based on two underlying assertions. Firstly that assessing a technology often entails a judgement of whether any loss in privacy is legitimised by a justifiable increase in security; however one fundamental difference between these two rights is that privacy is a finite resource with identifiable end-states (i.e. absolute privacy through to the absolute absence of privacy) whereas security does not have two finite end-states (while there exists the absolute absence of security, absolute security is an unobtainable yet desired goal). The second assertion, which relies upon the validity of the first, holds that one consequence of absolute security being unobtainable yet desirable is that new security interventions will continuously be developed, each potentially trading a small measure of privacy for a small rise in security. Examined individually each intervention may constitute a justifiable trade-off. However this approach of combining interventions in the search for ever greater security will ultimately reduce privacy to zero.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 214-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gavriil G. Arsoniadis ◽  
Petros G. Botonis ◽  
Ioannis S. Nikitakis ◽  
Dimitrios Kalokiris ◽  
Argyris G. Toubekis

Background: The magnitude of long-term changes on aerobic endurance indices provides useful information for understanding any training-induced adaptation during maturation. Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare changes in different aerobic endurance indices within two successive training years. Methods: Eight swimmers, (five male, three female; age: 14.1±1.5, height: 163.8±9.9 cm, body mass: 55.8±10 kg) were tested at four time-points, before and after the 12-week specific preparation period, within two successive training years (at year-1: start-1, end-1, at year-2: start-2, end-2). In each time-point were timed in distances of 50, 200 and 400 m front crawl to calculate the critical speed (CS). Subsequently, performed 5x200 m front crawl progressively increasing intensity and the lactate concentration was determined after each repetition. Using the individual speed vs. lactate concentration curve, the speed corresponding to 4 mmol.L-1 concentration (V4) and the speed corresponding to lactate threshold (sLT) were calculated. Results: Aerobic endurance was increased from year-1 to year-2 (effect of time, p<0.05) and no difference was observed between V4, sLT and CS at all time-points of evaluation (p>0.05). In year-1, V4, sLT and CS were unchanged even after the 12-week period (p>0.05). During year-2 of training it was only V4 that was increased from start-2 to end-2 (p<0.05), whereas sLT and CS were unchanged at the same period (p>0.05). Conclusion: The aerobic endurance indices change similarly throughout a two-year training, independent of the maturation. Possibly, V4 is more sensitive to detect training adaptations during the specific preparation period in young swimmers.


OENO One ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 401-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Molitor ◽  
Lucien Hoffmann ◽  
Marco Beyer

Aims: The present analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of two models for estimating the overall effect of combining two or more measures (leaf removal, cluster division, late shoot topping, botryticide application, bioregulator application) for controlling grape bunch rot based on the efficacy of the individual measures.Methods and results: Field trials with the white Vitis vinifera cultivars Pinot gris and Riesling on the efficacy of three bunch rot control measures applied either alone or in combination were analyzed. Bunch rot disease severities prior to harvest were assessed and efficacies were calculated for each treatment. Observed efficacies of single measures were used to estimate the overall efficacies of all possible measure combinations. Calculated efficacies matched observed efficacies more accurately when assuming multiplicative interaction among the individual measures (R2 = 0.8574, p < 0.0001; average absolute deviation: 7.9%) than in case of assuming additive effects (R2 = 0.8280; average absolute deviation: 14.7%).Conclusions: The multiplicative approach assumes that each additional measure is affecting (in case of efficient measures: reducing) the disease severity level as the result of the additional treatments rather than compared to the disease severity level in the untreated control.Significance and impact of the study: The high goodness of fit as well as the observed low deviations between the estimated and the observed efficacies suggest that the multiplicative approach is appropriate for estimating the efficacy of combined viticultural measures in a complex practical bunch rot control strategy assembled of different modules.


2018 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-54
Author(s):  
Jerzy Kosiewicz

Abstract In the presented text the author points out to anthropological as well as axiological foundations of the boxing fight from the viewpoint of Hegel’s philosophy. In the genial idealist’s views it is possible to perceive the appreciation of the body, which constitutes a necessary basis for the man’s physical activity, for his work oriented towards the self-transformation and the transformation of the external world, as well as for rivalry and the hand-to-hand fight. While focusing our attention on the issue of rivalry and on the situation of the fight - and regarding it from the viewpoint of the master - slave theory (included in the phenomenology of spirit), it is possible to proclaim that even a conventionalised boxing fight - that is, restricted by cultural and sports rules of the game - has features of the fight to the death between two Hegelian forms of selfknowledge striving for self-affirmation and self-realisation. In the boxing fight, similarly as in the above mentioned Hegelian theory, a problem of work and of the development of the human individual (that is, of the subject, self-knowledge, the participant of the fight) appears. There appears also a prospect of death as a possible end of merciless rivalry. The fight revalues the human way in an important way, whereas the prospect for death, the awareness of its proximity, the feeling that its close and possible, saturates the life with additional values. It places the boxer, just like every subject fighting in a similar or a different way, on the path towards absolute abstraction - that is, it brings him closer to his self-fulfilment in the Absolute, to the absolute synthesis. The Hegelian viewpoint enables also to appreciate the boxing fight as a manifestation of low culture (being in contrast with high culture), to turn attention to the relations which - according to Hegel - take place between the Absolute and the man, as well as to show which place is occupied by the subject both in the process of the Absolute’s self-realisation and in the German thinker’s philosophical system. Independently of the dialectical, simultaneously pessimistic and optimistic overtone of considerations connected with the very boxing fight (regarding destruction and spiritualisation on a higher level), it is possible to perceive farreaching appreciation of the human individual in Hegel’s philosophy since the Absolute cannot make its own self-affirmation without the individual, without the human body, without the fight aimed at the destruction of the enemy and without the subjective consciousness and the collective consciousness which appear thanks to this fight. Thus, it is justified to suppose that the foundation of the whole Hegel’s philosophy is constituted by anthropology and that in the framework of this anthropology a special role is played by the fight and by work, which changes the subject and his(her) environment. Admittedly Hegel does not emphasise it explicitly, nevertheless his views (with their centre, which, according to Hegel himself and his interpreters, is constituted by the Absolute) have, as a matter of fact, an anthropocentric character and the main source of the subject’s development is the struggle which, irrespectively of its result, always primarily leads to the destruction or even to the death of one of the sides, just like in the boxing fight. However, it is also a germ of the positive re-orientation of the subject, the beginning and a continuation of that what the phenomenology of the spirit describes as a movement towards absolute abstraction.


Author(s):  
Shu Chen ◽  
Lei Guo ◽  
Taghred Alghaith ◽  
Di Dong ◽  
Mohammed Alluhidan ◽  
...  

Aim: Many governments in East and Southeast Asia responded promptly and effectively at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Synthesizing and analyzing these responses is vital for disease control evidence-based policymaking. Methods: An extensive review of COVID-19 control measures was conducted in selected Asian countries and subregions, including Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and Vietnam from 1 January to 30 May 2020. Control measures were categorized into administrative, public health, and health system measures. To evaluate the stringency and timeliness of responses, we developed two indices: the Initial Response Index (IRI) and the Modified Stringency Index (MSI), which builds on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Results: Comprehensive administrative, public health, and health system control measures were implemented at the onset of the outbreak. Despite variations in package components, the stringency of control measures across the study sites increased with the acceleration of the outbreak, with public health control measures implemented the most stringently. Variations in daily average MSI scores are observed, with Mainland China scoring the highest (74.2), followed by Singapore (67.4), Vietnam (66.8), Hong Kong (66.2), South Korea (62.3), Taiwan (52.1), and Japan (50.3). Variations in IRI scores depicting timeliness were higher: Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Singapore acted faster (IRI > 50.0), while Japan (42.4) and Mainland China (4.2) followed. Conclusions: Timely setting of stringency of the control measures, especially public health measures, at dynamically high levels is key to optimally controlling outbreaks.


1995 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 382-382
Author(s):  
Yu.B. Kolesnik

15 catalogues produced in the eighties and 12 catalogues of the sixties-seventies have been used to assess the consistency of the FK5 system with observations in the declination zone from −30° to 30°. Positions of the FK4-based catalogues have been transformed at the equinox and equator J2000.0. Classical δ-dependent and α-dependent systematic differences (Cat-FK5) have been formed for individual instrumental systems of the catalogues by a method close to the classical Numerical Method. The weighted mean instrumental systems for the two subsets of catalogues centered at the epochs 1970 (MIS 60–70) and 1987 (MIS 80) and for all types of systematic differences have been constructed. The mean errors of the total systematic differences in α and δ have been estimated as 14 mas and 21 mas, respectively, for the catalogues of the 60-70ies, and 10 mas in both α and δ for the catalogues of the 80ies.It has been found that the mutual consistency of individual instrumental systems of catalogues of the 80ies with respect to δ-dependent systematic differences is superior by the factor 1.5 comparing with the catalogues of 60-70ies, while the consistency of both catalogue selections with respect to α-dependent systematic differences is comparable. Random accuracy of the FK5 positions and proper motions at the epochs under analysis has been assessed as close to expected from the formal considerations. Actual systematic discrepancies of the FK5 with observations at the respective epochs have been detected. For systematic differences δαδ cosδ and δδδ, the absolute deviations of the MIS 80 are, in general, within 40 mas, those of the MIS 60-70 are within 30 mas. For systematic differences δαα cosδ and δδα, the absolute deviations reach 30-40 mas for both MIS. For total systematic differences, local deformations of the FK5 system in the equatorial zone in both right ascension and declination has been found exceeding expected ones from the formal errors of the FK5 system by a factor about 1.5 for the MIS 60-70, and by a factor about 2 for the MIS 80. Consistency in area distribution between both MIS for the total systematic differences δαcosδ has been detected. Quick degradation of the FK5 system with time due to optimistic estimation of the errors of its proper motion system is supposed to be one of the main causes of its discrepancies with observations. The results in declination are recognized to be less reliable due to larger inconsistency of the individual instrumental systems.Before the next space astrometric mission will be realized, ground-based observations will continue to be the only available check of an external systematic accuracy of the HIPPARCOS catalogue. Evidently, random and, possibly, systematic accuracy of each individual catalogue observed from the Earth surface would be inferior to that of the HIPPARCOS catalogue. Taken as an ensemble, however, a certain selection of catalogues might give a rather definite idea about the actual distortions of the HIPPARCOS system. This study shows to which level of accuracy such ensembles of different selections of catalogues might check the HIPPARCOS system in the equatorial zone. The analysis of the FK5 gives also an idea about levels of random and systematic discrepancies which may be expected in the equatorial zone when the HIPPARCOS catalogue will be compared with the FK5 at different epochs.


Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1345
Author(s):  
Rosilainy Surubi Fernandes ◽  
Mariana Rocha David ◽  
Filipe Vieira Santos De Abreu ◽  
Anielly Ferreira-de-Brito ◽  
Noemi R. Gardinali ◽  
...  

Despite worldwide efforts to understand the transmission dynamics of Zika virus (ZIKV), scanty evaluation has been made on the vector competence of Aedes aegypti fed directly on viremic human and non-human primates (NHPs). We blood-fed Ae. aegypti from two districts in Rio de Janeiro on six ZIKV infected pregnant rhesus macaques at several time points, half of which were treated with Sofosbuvir (SOF). Mosquitoes were analyzed for vector competence after 3, 7 and 14 days of incubation. Although viremia extended up to eight days post monkey inoculation, only mosquitoes fed on the day of the peak of viremia, recorded on day two, became infected. The influence of SOF treatment could not be assessed because the drug was administered just after mosquito feeding on day two. The global infection, dissemination and transmission rates were quite low (4.09%, 1.91% and 0.54%, respectively); no mosquito was infected when viremia was below 1.26 × 105 RNA copies/mL. In conclusion, Ae. aegypti vector competence for ZIKV from macaques is low, likely to be due to low viral load and the short duration of ZIKV viremia in primates suitable for infecting susceptible mosquitoes. If ZIKV infection in human and macaques behaves similarly, transmission of the Zika virus in nature is most strongly affected by vector density.


1926 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Helen Miller Noyes ◽  
I. Lorberblatt ◽  
K. George Falk

The hydrolyzing actions of various preparations of the adult eel were studied on ten esters in the usual way. The results are presented in the form of curves for the relative actions and in a table for the absolute actions obtained in one complete experiment. The separation of the enzyme material in some cases into an active portion and a co-enzyme, the mixture showing greater actions on some esters than the sums of the individual actions, is described and discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 184 (6) ◽  
pp. 191-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen C Hughes ◽  
Tito K Kibona ◽  
William A de Glanville ◽  
Felix Lankester ◽  
Alicia Davis ◽  
...  

AbstractA neurological syndrome of small ruminants, known locally as ‘ormilo’, has been reported among pastoralist livestock keepers in Tanzania. This study was carried out in four affected pastoral communities to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors, characterise the clinical signs and investigate the aetiology of the syndrome. Questionnaires were administered at all households (n=480) within four study villages. Overall, 94 per cent of households reported at least one case in the previous 12 months. By village, the individual-level 12-month period prevalence ranged from 11 per cent to 34 per cent, equivalent to about 10,000 small ruminants across the four villages. Thirty-eight households were randomly selected for further investigation. Proprioceptive deficits and weakness were the most commonly observed clinical signs in affected animals. Brain and spinal cord cysts consistent with Taenia multiceps infection were detected in 32 (82 per cent) of 39 affected animals selected for postmortem examination. Feeding small ruminant brains to dogs was identified as an important risk factor for the syndrome, even in households that did not own dogs. This study confirms cerebral coenurosis as a major cause of small ruminant neurological disease in northern Tanzania and highlights the urgent need for further investigation to quantify the disease burden and to identify and implement control measures.


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