Regional low flow analysis in Sefidrood Drainage Basin, Iran using principal component regression

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazem Nosrati ◽  
Gregor Laaha ◽  
Seyed Ali Sharifnia ◽  
Mojtaba Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Catchment Area ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Pearson Type

Knowledge of low streamflow statistics is necessary for effective water management in regions prone to extreme hydrologic events such as Iran. This study employs a data set of 23 river flow time series from Sefidrood Drainage Basin, Iran, to examine regional hydrological drought based on the low flow index 7Q10. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis was used to divide the 23 gauging stations into two homogeneous drought regions based on the similarity of the binary drought series. 7Q10 was determined using log-Pearson type-III and 2-parameter log-normal distributions selected as the best regional probability distribution functions in homogeneous drought region 1 and 2, respectively. The 7Q10 was related to principal components of catchment characteristics in each homogeneous drought region separately using backward stepwise regression. The resulting regression equations exhibit a coefficient of determination of 69 and 89%, respectively. The regression parameters are linked to a size factor related to catchment area, an elevation factor which is independent of catchment area, and geological formation variables, which can therefore be interpreted as important controls of low flow generation processes in the study area. The equations developed here are expected to provide robust estimates of 7Q10 values for watersheds in areas of similar geomorphology, geology and climate.

scholarly journals The Low Flow Assessment of Padma River in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-20
Author(s):  
Md. Abu Sayed ◽  
Aysha Akter
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Field Observations ◽  
Distribution Method ◽  
Minimum Flow ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Padma River

Low flow or Environmental Flow (EF) assessment is vital to ensure the river and ecosystem remain healthy. Both natural and human interventions might alter a river. Therefore, this study presents EF requirements of the famous Hilsa breeding center in the Padma River, Bangladesh, by applying the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) for discharge and water surface levels simulations at different stations. The frequency analysis of 20 years of historical data, spanning 2000-2019, used the Log-Pearson Type III (LP-III) distribution method, while the one-dimensional unsteady flow simulation was performed for the last 10 years (i.e., 2012-2019). Subsequently, the HEC-RAS simulated water level values reasonably correlated with the field observations at four stations, namely Baruria Transit, Mawa, Tarpasha, Sureswar, with Coefficient of determination R2=0.86, 0.83, 0.92, and 0.74, alongside simulated minimum water surface levels of 1.57 m, 0.37 m, 0.30 m, and 0.27 m, respectively. Also, the Baruria Transit and Mawa had simulated flows that reasonably correlated with the field observations at R2=0.70 and 0.61, with a simulated minimum flow of 3849.51 m3/s and 3789.14 m3/s, respectively. The minimum flow according to the frequency analysis was 4017 m3/s, 3685 m3/s, 3449 m3/s, 3229 m3/s, and 3113 m3/s at Baruria Transit and 3304 m3/s, 2781 m3/s, 2438 m3/s, 2141 m3/s, 1992 m3/s at Mawa station in 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years return periods, respectively. This study overlooked to report the ongoing investigations into the water quality issues. Thus, this study is expected to guide the required EF quantity towards a healthy Hilsha fish habitat and surface water source for drinking purposes in this studied river. The stated method is also applicable to other similar rivers around the world.

scholarly journals Comparison of neural networks and neuro-fuzzy computing techniques for prediction of peak breach outflow

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan G. Elmazoghi ◽  
Vail Karakale (Waiel Mowrtage) ◽  
Lubna S. Bentaher
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Gene Expression Programming ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Embankment Dams ◽  
Small Dams ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

Accurate prediction of peak outflows from breached embankment dams is a key parameter in dam risk assessment. In this study, efficient models were developed to predict peak breach outflows utilizing artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Historical data from 93 embankment dam failures were used to train and evaluate the applicability of these models. Two scenarios were applied with each model by either considering the whole data set without classification or classifying the set into small dams (48 dams) and large dams (45 dams). In this way, nine models were developed and their results were compared to each other and to the results of the best available regression equations and recent gene expression programming. Among the different models, the ANFIS model of the first scenario exhibited better performance based on its higher efficiency (E = 0.98), higher coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.98) and lower mean absolute error (MAE = 840.9). Moreover, models based on classified data enhanced the prediction of peak outflows particularly for small dams. Finally, this study indicated the potential of the developed ANFIS and ANN models to be used as predictive tools of peak outflow rates of embankment dams.

scholarly journals Continuous Modeling of the Mkurumudzi River Catchment in Kenya Using the HEC-HMS Conceptual Model: Calibration, Validation, Model Performance Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendso Ouédraogo ◽  
James Raude ◽  
John Gathenya
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Continuous Modeling

The Mkurumudzi River originates in the Shimba hills and runs through Kwale County on the Kenyan Coast. Study on this river has been informed by the many economic activities that the river supports, which include sugarcane plantations, mining, tourism and subsistence farming. The main objective of this study was to use the soil moisture accounting (SMA) model specified in the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) settings for the continuous modeling of stream flow in the Mkurumudzi catchment. Data from past years were compared with observed stream flow data in order to evaluate whether the model can be used for further prediction. The calibration was performed using data from 1988 to 1991 and validation for the period from 1992 to 1995 at a daily time step. The model performance was evaluated based on computed statistical parameters and visual checking of plotted hydrographs. For the calibration period of the continuous modeling, the performance of the model was very good, with a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.80, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.80, index of agreement d = 0.94, and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)/observations’ standard deviation ratio—RSR = 0.46. Similarly, the continuous model performance for the validation period was good, with R2 = 0.67, NSE = 0.65, RSR = 0.62 and d = 0.88. Based on these performance results, the SMA model in the HEC-HMS was found to give a satisfactory prediction of stream flow in the Mkurumudzi Catchment. The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was performed, and the different parameters were ranked according to their sensitivity in terms of percent change in simulated runoff volume, peaks, Nash-Efficiency, seven-day low flow and base flow index. Sensitivity analysis helped to understand the relationships between the key model parameters and the variables.

scholarly journals Forensic Investigation of Four Monitored Green Infrastructure Inlets

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1787
Author(s):  
Leena J. Shevade ◽  
Franco A. Montalto
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Uncertainty ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Stormwater Management ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Inflow Rate ◽  
Forensic Investigation ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
The Mean

Green infrastructure (GI) is viewed as a sustainable approach to stormwater management that is being rapidly implemented, outpacing the ability of researchers to compare the effectiveness of alternate design configurations. This paper investigated inflow data collected at four GI inlets. The performance of these four GI inlets, all of which were engineered with the same inlet lengths and shapes, was evaluated through field monitoring. A forensic interpretation of the observed inlet performance was conducted using conclusions regarding the role of inlet clogging and inflow rate as described in the previously published work. The mean inlet efficiency (meanPE), which represents the percentage of tributary area runoff that enters the inlet was 65% for the Nashville inlet, while at Happyland the NW inlet averaged 30%, the SW inlet 25%, and the SE inlet 10%, considering all recorded events during the monitoring periods. The analysis suggests that inlet clogging was the main reason for lower inlet efficiency at the SW and NW inlets, while for the SE inlet, performance was compromised by a reverse cross slope of the street. Spatial variability of rainfall, measurement uncertainty, uncertain tributary catchment area, and inlet depression characteristics are also correlated with inlet PE. The research suggests that placement of monitoring sensors should consider low flow conditions and a strategy to measure them. Additional research on the role of various maintenance protocols in inlet hydraulics is recommended.

PSVI-8 Meta-regression Analysis to Determine the Relationship Between Growing Pig Body Weight and Variation

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 218-219
Author(s):  
Andres Fernando T Russi ◽  
Mike D Tokach ◽  
Jason C Woodworth ◽  
Joel M DeRouchey ◽  
Robert D Goodband ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Weight ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The swine industry has been constantly evolving to select animals with improved performance traits and to minimize variation in body weight (BW) in order to meet packer specifications. Therefore, understanding variation presents an opportunity for producers to find strategies that could help reduce, manage, or deal with variation of pigs in a barn. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted by collecting data from multiple studies and available data sets in order to develop prediction equations for coefficient of variation (CV) and standard deviation (SD) as a function of BW. Information regarding BW variation from 16 papers was recorded to provide approximately 204 data points. Together, these data included 117,268 individually weighed pigs with a sample size that ranged from 104 to 4,108 pigs. A random-effects model with study used as a random effect was developed. Observations were weighted using sample size as an estimate for precision on the analysis, where larger data sets accounted for increased accuracy in the model. Regression equations were developed using the nlme package of R to determine the relationship between BW and its variation. Polynomial regression analysis was conducted separately for each variation measurement. When CV was reported in the data set, SD was calculated and vice versa. The resulting prediction equations were: CV (%) = 20.04 – 0.135 × (BW) + 0.00043 × (BW)2, R2=0.79; SD = 0.41 + 0.150 × (BW) - 0.00041 × (BW)2, R2 = 0.95. These equations suggest that there is evidence for a decreasing quadratic relationship between mean CV of a population and BW of pigs whereby the rate of decrease is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market. Conversely, the rate of increase of SD of a population of pigs is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market.

scholarly journals Correlation between the structure and skin permeability of compounds

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruolan Zeng ◽  
Jiyong Deng ◽  
Limin Dang ◽  
Xinliang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Large Data ◽  
Qsar Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Skin Permeability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Test Set ◽  
Svm Algorithm ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Toxicity Relationship

AbstractA three-descriptor quantitative structure–activity/toxicity relationship (QSAR/QSTR) model was developed for the skin permeability of a sufficiently large data set consisting of 274 compounds, by applying support vector machine (SVM) together with genetic algorithm. The optimal SVM model possesses the coefficient of determination R2 of 0.946 and root mean square (rms) error of 0.253 for the training set of 139 compounds; and a R2 of 0.872 and rms of 0.302 for the test set of 135 compounds. Compared with other models reported in the literature, our SVM model shows better statistical performance in a model that deals with more samples in the test set. Therefore, applying a SVM algorithm to develop a nonlinear QSAR model for skin permeability was achieved.

scholarly journals Do galactic bars depend on environment?: an information theoretic analysis of Galaxy Zoo 2

2020 ◽  
Vol 501 (1) ◽  
pp. 994-1001
Author(s):  
Suman Sarkar ◽  
Biswajit Pandey ◽  
Snehasish Bhattacharjee
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Mutual Information ◽  
Local Density ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Host Galaxy ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Information Theoretic

ABSTRACT We use an information theoretic framework to analyse data from the Galaxy Zoo 2 project and study if there are any statistically significant correlations between the presence of bars in spiral galaxies and their environment. We measure the mutual information between the barredness of galaxies and their environments in a volume limited sample (Mr ≤ −21) and compare it with the same in data sets where (i) the bar/unbar classifications are randomized and (ii) the spatial distribution of galaxies are shuffled on different length scales. We assess the statistical significance of the differences in the mutual information using a t-test and find that both randomization of morphological classifications and shuffling of spatial distribution do not alter the mutual information in a statistically significant way. The non-zero mutual information between the barredness and environment arises due to the finite and discrete nature of the data set that can be entirely explained by mock Poisson distributions. We also separately compare the cumulative distribution functions of the barred and unbarred galaxies as a function of their local density. Using a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, we find that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected even at $75{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level. Our analysis indicates that environments do not play a significant role in the formation of a bar, which is largely determined by the internal processes of the host galaxy.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Concentration of Risk Elements in Alluvial Soils Determined by pXRF In Situ, in the Laboratory, and by ICP-OES

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 938
Author(s):  
Ladislav Menšík ◽  
Lukáš Hlisnikovský ◽  
Pavel Nerušil ◽  
Eva Kunzová
Keyword(s):  
Precision Agriculture ◽  
Alluvial Soil ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Fast Method ◽  
Agricultural Practice ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Icp Oes ◽  
Risk Elements ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of the study was to compare the concentrations of risk elements (As, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) in alluvial soil, which were measured by a portable X-ray fluorescence analyser (pXRF) in situ (FIELD) and in the laboratory (LABORATORY). Subsequently, regression equations were developed for individual elements through the method of construction of the regression model, which compare the results of pXRF with classical laboratory analysis (ICP-OES). The accuracy of the measurement, expressed by the coefficient of determination (R2), was as follows in the case of FIELD–ICP-OES: Pb (0.96), Zn (0.92), As (0.72), Mn (0.63), Cu (0.31) and Ni (0.01). In the case of LABORATORY–ICP-OES, the coefficients had values: Pb (0.99), Zn (0.98), Cu and Mn (0.89), As (0.88), Ni (0.81). A higher dependence of the relationship was recorded between LABORATORY–ICP-OES than between FIELD–ICP-OES. An excellent relationship was recorded for the elements Pb and Zn, both for FIELD and LABORATORY (R2 higher than 0.90). The elements Cu, Mn and As have a worse tightness in the relationship; however, the results of the model have shown its applicability for common use, e.g., in agricultural practice or in monitoring the quality of the environment. Based on our results, we can say that pXRF instruments can provide highly accurate results for the concentration of risk elements in the soil in real time for some elements and meet the principle of precision agriculture: an efficient, accurate and fast method of analysis.

scholarly journals Genetic and Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Yearling Weight Gain in Israel Holstein Dairy Calves

Genes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 708
Author(s):  
Moran Gershoni ◽  
Joel Ira Weller ◽  
Ephraim Ezra
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
Milk Fat ◽  
Variance Components ◽  
Complete Data ◽  
Variance Component Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Birth Date ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Genetic Evaluations

Yearling weight gain in male and female Israeli Holstein calves, defined as 365 × ((weight − 35)/age at weight) + 35, was analyzed from 814,729 records on 368,255 animals from 740 herds recorded between 1994 and 2021. The variance components were calculated based on valid records from 2008 through 2017 for each sex separately and both sexes jointly by a single-trait individual animal model analysis, which accounted for repeat records on animals. The analysis model also included the square root, linear, and quadratic effects of age at weight. Heritability and repeatability were 0.35 and 0.71 in the analysis of both sexes and similar in the single sex analyses. The regression of yearling weight gain on birth date in the complete data set was −0.96 kg/year. The complete data set was also analyzed by the same model as the variance component analysis, including both sexes and accounting for differing variance components for each sex. The genetic trend for yearling weight gain, including both sexes, was 1.02 kg/year. Genetic evaluations for yearling weight gain was positively correlated with genetic evaluations for milk, fat, protein production, and cow survival but negatively correlated with female fertility. Yearling weight gain was also correlated with the direct effect on dystocia, and increased yearling weight gain resulted in greater frequency of dystocia. Of the 1749 Israeli Holstein bulls genotyped with reliabilities >50%, 1445 had genetic evaluations. As genotyping of these bulls was performed using several single nucleotide polymorhphism (SNP) chip platforms, we included only those markers that were genotyped in >90% of the tested cohort. A total of 40,498 SNPs were retained. More than 400 markers had significant effects after permutation and correction for multiple testing (pnominal < 1 × 10−8). Considering all SNPs simultaneously, 0.69 of variance among the sires’ transmitting ability was explained. There were 24 markers with coefficients of determination for yearling weight gain >0.04. One marker, BTA-75458-no-rs on chromosome 5, explained ≈6% of the variance among the estimated breeding values for yearling weight gain. ARS-BFGL-NGS-39379 had the fifth largest coefficient of determination in the current study and was also found to have a significant effect on weight at an age of 13–14 months in a previous study on Holsteins. Significant genomic effects on yearling weight gain were mainly associated with milk production quantitative trait loci, specifically with kappa casein metabolism.

scholarly journals Development of a semi-parametric PAR (Photosynthetically Active Radiation) partitioning model for the United States, version 1.0

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 2477-2484 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Kathilankal ◽  
T. L. O'Halloran ◽  
A. Schmidt ◽  
C. V. Hanson ◽  
B. E. Law
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Diffuse Radiation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Polynomial Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Cubic Polynomial ◽  
Solar Elevation Angle

Abstract. A semi-parametric PAR diffuse radiation model was developed using commonly measured climatic variables from 108 site-years of data from 17 AmeriFlux sites. The model has a logistic form and improves upon previous efforts using a larger data set and physically viable climate variables as predictors, including relative humidity, clearness index, surface albedo and solar elevation angle. Model performance was evaluated by comparison with a simple cubic polynomial model developed for the PAR spectral range. The logistic model outperformed the polynomial model with an improved coefficient of determination and slope relative to measured data (logistic: R2 = 0.76; slope = 0.76; cubic: R2 = 0.73; slope = 0.72), making this the most robust PAR-partitioning model for the United States currently available.

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