A Causal Approach to Nonrandom Measurement Errors

1970 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 1099-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. Blalock

The purpose of this paper is to examine several specific kinds of nonrandom measurement errors and to note their implications for causal model construction. In doing so, my secondary purpose is to sensitize the reader to the crucial importance of making one's assumptions fully explicit and to the advantages of a causal models approach to measurement errors. It is well known that the presence of even random measurement errors can produce serious distortions in our estimates, particularly whenever one is attempting to assess the relative contributions of intercorrelated independent variables. Nevertheless, common practice is to utilize what Duncan refers to as the naive approach to the presence of measurement errors: that of acknowledging the existence of measurement errors, and even discussing possible sources of such errors, while completely ignoring them in the analysis stage of the research process. That is, measured values are inserted directly into causal models as though they adequately reflect the true values. It can easily be shown that such a practice, while leading to important simplifications, can readily lead one astray. In particular, it may blind the analyst to searching for alternative plausible explanations that allow for measurement error.There have been a number of very recent papers in the sociological literature, some of which will be briefly summarized since they may not be familiar to the reader. For the most part, these papers have dealt rather systematically with ways to handle random measurement errors, whereas nonrandom errors have been dealt with only incidentally and much less carefully.

Author(s):  
David A. Lagnado ◽  
Tobias Gerstenberg

Causation looms large in legal and moral reasoning. People construct causal models of the social and physical world to understand what has happened, how and why, and to allocate responsibility and blame. This chapter explores people’s common-sense notion of causation, and shows how it underpins moral and legal judgments. As a guiding framework it uses the causal model framework (Pearl, 2000) rooted in structural models and counterfactuals, and shows how it can resolve many of the problems that beset standard but-for analyses. It argues that legal concepts of causation are closely related to everyday causal reasoning, and both are tailored to the practical concerns of responsibility attribution. Causal models are also critical when people evaluate evidence, both in terms of the stories they tell to make sense of evidence, and the methods they use to assess its credibility and reliability.


Author(s):  
Mike Oaksford ◽  
Nick Chater

There are deep intuitions that the meaning of conditional statements relate to probabilistic law-like dependencies. In this chapter it is argued that these intuitions can be captured by representing conditionals in causal Bayes nets (CBNs) and that this conjecture is theoretically productive. This proposal is borne out in a variety of results. First, causal considerations can provide a unified account of abstract and causal conditional reasoning. Second, a recent model (Fernbach & Erb, 2013) can be extended to the explicit causal conditional reasoning paradigm (Byrne, 1989), making some novel predictions on the way. Third, when embedded in the broader cognitive system involved in reasoning, causal model theory can provide a novel explanation for apparent violations of the Markov condition in causal conditional reasoning (Ali et al, 2011). Alternative explanations are also considered (see, Rehder, 2014a) with respect to this evidence. While further work is required, the chapter concludes that the conjecture that conditional reasoning is underpinned by representations and processes similar to CBNs is indeed a productive line of research.


1995 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Curry ◽  
Robert M. Jiobu

The importance of competition and other motive statements in explaining gambling behavior is an important but controversial issue. This study operationalizes several types of motive statements related to sports participation, and then, in a novel methodological strategy, applies these as independent variables in a causal model of sport betting among college athletes. Based on questionnaires from 492 athletes at three colleges, findings showed that competitive and extrinsic motives for sport predict sports wagering. This is the case even in a multivariate equation that includes several control variables drawn from previous studies of gambling in the general population.


Author(s):  
Koichi Yamada ◽  

We propose a way to lean probabilistic causal models using conditional causal probabilities (CCPs) to represent uncertainty of causalities. The CCP is a probability devised by Peng and Reggia representing the uncertainty that a cause actually causes an effect given the cause. The main advantage of using CCPs is that they represent exact probabilities of causalities that people recognize mentally, and that the number of probabilities used in the causal model is far smaller than that of conditional probabilities by all combinations of possible causes. Thus, Peng and Reggia assumed that CCPs are given by human experts as subjective ones, and did not discuss how to calculate them from data when a dataset was available. We address this problem, starting from a discussion about properties of data frequently given in practical problems, and shows that prior probabilities that should be learned may differ from those derived by counting data. We then discuss and propose how to learn prior probabilities and CCPs from data, and evaluate the proposed method through numerical experiments and analyze results to show that the precision of leaned models is satisfactory.


1985 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Walters

Functional relationships, such as stock–recruitment curves, are generally estimated from time series data where natural "random" factors have generated both deviations from the relationship and also informative variation in the independent variables. Even in the absence of measurement errors, such natural experiments can lead to severely biased parameter estimates. For stock–recruitment models, the bias is misleading for management: the stock will appear too productive when it is low, and too unproductive when it is large. The likely magnitude of such biases can and should be determined for any particular case by Monte Carlo simulations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. G. Sandomirski

Magnetic testing of steels' mechanical properties is based on their correlation with steels' magnetic parameters. The purpose of this work was to establish dependence of the attainable correlation coefficient Rmax between measurement results and the parameter values a on the reduced error of its measurement. The article proposes a model of the correlation field between the parameter true values and the results of its measurement with a given reduced error δ. The merits and legitimacy of using the model for estimation of the achievable correlation coefficient Rmax are substantiated. Analysis of influence of δ parameter measurement in different ranges d of its change on Rmax is carried out. Results are compared with the previous analysis for the relative measurement error. It has been established in this work that the coefficient Rmax calculated for the reduced measurement error is always smaller than Rmax one calculated for the relative measurement error. However in the practically important range of variation of d with δ ≤ 0.05 the difference between the Rmax values calculated for the reduced and relative measurement errors is not large. This allows us to use the developed formula for the dependence Rmax = Rmax (δ, d) at Rmax ≥ 0.8 for both relative and reduced measurement errors δ. The obtained result allows us using the reduced measurement error of a metrologically certified measuring instrument to obtain the maximum attainable correlation coefficient between the true values and the results of measuring a parameter in a given range of its change without measurements. As an example, we define the conditions for the non-destructive testing of steels under which one can use measuring of magnetic parameters with the installation certified based on the reduced measurement error.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Huo ◽  
Khim Kelly ◽  
Alan Webb

Firms often use causal models to align decision-making with strategic objectives. However, firms often operate in changing environments such that an accurate causal model can become inaccurate. Prior research has not examined the consequences a change in the accuracy of causal models may have for managerial learning. Using an experiment, we predict and find that providing an accurate causal model positively affects managerial learning, and this positive effect is not reduced by encouraging a hypothesis-testing mindset (HTM). However, when the model subsequently becomes inaccurate, we predict and observe that providing a causal model alone negatively affects managerial learning, although this effect is partially mitigated by additionally encouraging a HTM. Our results can inform designers of control systems about the potential implications of providing a causal model when its accuracy changes over time and demonstrate how simple encouragement of a HTM moderates the effects of providing a causal model.


2012 ◽  
Vol 1373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Grzmil ◽  
Kinga Łuczka ◽  
Marta Gleń

ABSTRACTA method for obtaining of amorphous aluminium ammonium phosphates is developed. The statistical program STATISTICA 9 is used for planning and evaluation of the experiments. Research is carried out according to the Box-Behnken model for the following values of independent variables (input factors): pH: 6.0 ± 2; concentration of reagents: 40 ± 10 wt%, molar ratio of NH4+:PO43- in substrates (2 ± 1:1) i.e. Al3+:NH4+:PO43- (0.66:1-3:1). On the basis of this research, process parameters are determined, in which materials with the expected physicochemical properties (chemical composition, specific surface area, oil absorption number) can be obtained.


1996 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-55
Author(s):  
Yukiko Inoue

The primary purpose of this investigation was to identify the facilitators and inhibitors for the use of computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and to prioritize their relative importance as they were perceived by university faculty. The secondary purpose was to examine differences between the perceptions of education and business faculties and to detect possible interactions among a set of independent variables. For these purposes a survey questionnaire was designed and administered to the faculty of Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore. The results obtained from sixty-two responding faculty indicated that the two most important facilitators were teachers' knowledge and skills in CAI technology, and the availability of hardware and software. The lack of teachers' time, and the lack of technical support were the two most important inhibitors. Some significant differences were detected between the perceptions of education and business faculties.


Author(s):  
Daniel López-López ◽  
Ricardo García-Mira ◽  
Patricia Palomo-López ◽  
Rubén Sánchez-Gómez ◽  
José Ramos-Galván ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Objective: to explore attitudes towards patients' self-reported data about foot health-related beliefs from a behavioural and attitudinal perspective. Methods: a sample of 282 participants of a mean age of 39.46 ± 16.026 came to a health centre where self-reported demographic, clinical characteristics and beliefs relating to foot health data were registered, informants' completed all the stages of the research process. Results: the results of the analysis revealed an 8-factor factorial structure based on (1) podiatric behaviours, (2) the intention to carry out protective behaviour, (3) attitudinal beliefs, (4) normative beliefs, (5) needs, (6) apathy, (7) self-care, and (8) the general perception of foot health. They all explained 62.78% of the variance, and were considered as independent variables in a regression analysis to determine which provided the best explanations for the importance attributed to foot health. Conclusions: the participants in the study revealed a positive attitude in relation to foot health care and responsible behaviour.


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