Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War

1987 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack S. Levy
Keyword(s):  
Political Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Power Differentials ◽  
Political Security ◽  
The Military

The preventive motivation for war arises from political leaders' perceptions that their states' military power and potential are declining relative to those of a rising adversary, and from their fear of the consequences of that decline. It is conceptualized as an intervening variable between changing power differentials and the outbreak of war, and is distinguished from preemption and other sources of better-now-than-later logic. The strength of the preventive motivation is hypothesized to be a function of a state's expectations regarding its rate of military decline, the margin of its inferiority in the future, the probability of a future war, and the probability of a victorious war now with acceptable costs. It is also affected by the risk orientation of decision makers; the influence of the military in the political process; and domestic political factors that undermine the political security of decision makers as well as the military power and potential of the state.

Influence, Power, and the Policy Process: The Case of Franz Ferdinand, 1906–1914

1974 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 417-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel R. Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Political ◽  
Habsburg Monarchy ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Military

The death of Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo galvanized the Habsburg monarchy into its most fateful decision: the initiation of local war against Serbia. His demise, among other things, ensured Berlin's fidelity to its alliance commitment, convinced (mistakenly) the decision-makers in Vienna that monarchical solidarity would keep Russia in check, and allowed the Hungarians to breathe more easily. But the heir apparent's death may also have had an importance generally overlooked in analyzing the crisis of July 1914.1 Put simply, his disappearance suddenly altered the decision-making processes of the Habsburg monarchy. The elaborate consultative procedures involving the archduke, his military chancellery, and advisers were abruptly terminated. No longer did the joint ministers, the national ministers, the military hierarchy or the emperor's court officials have to consider the archduke and his strong, often peaceful, views on foreign policy. Even Franz Joseph was now spared the irritation of having to explain a decision to his insistent nephew. Sarajevo thus not only supplied the occasion for Vienna's decision for war, it helped, by drastically revising the political process, to accelerate that decision.

scholarly journals Minister-Permanent Secretary Relationships: Lessons from Zimbabwe’s Government of national Unity

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Tawanda Zinyama ◽  
Joseph Tinarwo
Keyword(s):  
Public Administration ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
The State ◽  
Team Work ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Public administration is carried out through the public service. Public administration is an instrument of the State which is expected to implement the policy decisions made from the political and legislative processes. The rationale of this article is to assess the working relationships between ministers and permanent secretaries in the Government of National Unity in Zimbabwe. The success of the Minister depends to a large degree on the ability and goodwill of a permanent secretary who often has a very different personal or professional background and whom the minster did not appoint. Here lies the vitality of the permanent secretary institution. If a Minister decides to ignore the advice of the permanent secretary, he/she may risk of making serious errors. The permanent secretary is the key link between the democratic process and the public service. This article observed that the mere fact that the permanent secretary carries out the political, economic and social interests and functions of the state from which he/she derives his/her authority and power; and to which he/she is accountable,  no permanent secretary is apolitical and neutral to the ideological predisposition of the elected Ministers. The interaction between the two is a political process. Contemporary administrator requires complex team-work and the synthesis of diverse contributions and view-points.

scholarly journals Axiological Vectors in the American and Russian Presidental Discourse: The State of the Union Address and the Address to the Russian Federal Assembly Compared

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2(2)) ◽  
pp. 121-150
Author(s):  
Ruslan Saduov
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Presidential Discourse ◽  
The Given

Presidential discourse is an indicative of axiological and other developmental vectors of a linguocultural community. It informs one about the main social, cultural, economic, and political changes in a country. In this respect, the annual State of the Union Address in the USA and the Address to the Federal Assembly in Russia are seen as the highlights of the political calendar in both countries, as these statements summarise the most relevant issues and enable their respective leaders to elaborate on their vision of their nation’s future. This paper aims to analise and compare the axiological vectors developed in the given presidential addresses in both Russia and the USA in the period from 2009 to 2015. It traces not only the most relevant values promoted by the political leaders, but also any axiological changes that occurred in the eventful years under investigation. The results of the research inform one about the current axiological identities of the linguocultural communities in question and the changing vectors of their development.

scholarly journals Satire in Shrestha’s Ghintang Ghishi Twank

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Man Kumar Rai
Keyword(s):  
Positive Change ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Common People ◽  
The People ◽  
Hands On ◽  
Special Occasion ◽  
The Common

   The objective of this article is to analyze the use of satire in three poems, from Rupesh  Shrestha’s volume of poems Ghintang Ghishi Twank in order to examine use of the suffering of voiceless people. The poems depict absurdities of the society and hypocrisy of the leaders which are the causes of poor people‟s pains. This poems exhibit how follies, vices and absurdities are hurdle in transforming society into prosperous one. The poet has berated them with the aim of bringing positive change in the society and in the lives of the common people. The poet mocks at the political changes which have brought change only in the lives of political leaders, not in the lives of the people who have been ignored by the state for long. Despite many anxieties, they enjoy dancing and playing sticks in their hands on the special occasion of Gaijatra. The poems are collection of sharp words which are used to butt the corrupt politicians. For this, the elements of Juvenalian satire have been used as tools for analysis of the selected poems. This study highlights upon the anxieties of marginalized people; demonstrates the shameful act of politicians; and exposes the absurdities prevailed in the society. It indicates that the political and social absurdities are subject to be poked in order to reform a society.

scholarly journals Bollywood in the Hollywood Era: Narratives of Ultra-nationalism, Terrorism and Violence

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-47
Author(s):  
Iqbal Shailo
Keyword(s):  
Political Rhetoric ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Regional Politics ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Hollywood Movies ◽  
Strategic Policies

The study examines how some renowned Hollywood and Bollywood movies deal with geopolitical representations of empire and regional politics through the construction of discourses centered on the building of “empire” and “nation”. These movies reflect how government machineries evaluate the political situation and strategic policies of the country in managing geopolitical environments through the construction of security narratives, political rhetoric and geopolitical discourses.  The narratives of specific Hollywood movies tend to explain contemporary geopolitics with an emphasis on America’s military power, strategy and world leadership while the genre of Bollywood movies reconnects the ideology of division through the establishment of geographies of ‘us’ and ‘them’ setting aside the so-called “secular face” of the state.

Civil–Military Relations And Grand Strategy

2021 ◽  
pp. 270-286
Author(s):  
Risa Brooks
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Grand Strategy ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Global Order ◽  
The Core ◽  
Civil Military Relations ◽  
Integrated Strategy ◽  
Civilian Leaders ◽  
Military Relations

Civil–military relations affect three major dimensions of grand strategy. They first shape the core principles, or substance of a state’s grand strategy. For example, relations between military and political leaders may determine whether a state is inclined toward a grand strategy that entails significant global commitments and military ventures, one that is revisionist towards the regional or global order, or that is more cautious in its use of military power and foreign interventions. Second, civil–military relations affect the character of a state’s grand strategy. Specifically, they help determine whether a state is able to align its grand strategy’s political, diplomatic, military and economic components, or whether the state instead is prone to pursue a poorly integrated strategy composed of irreconcilable approaches across these different domains. Last, relations between military and civilian leaders influence the execution or implementation of a grand strategy and therefore, whatever its putative merits, whether the state can in fact achieve the promise of the principles they espouse.

Anti-Indian factions in Bangladeshi Politics (1971 – 2014): A Brief Survey

Ensemble ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-122
Author(s):  
Soham DasGupta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
Water Sharing ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

India played an active role in the liberation war of Bangladesh in 1971. The relation between the two countries remained cordial in the initial years but it soon soured with the coup d’etat of 1975. This also marked the rise of the anti-Indian elements in the Bangladeshi politics. This article makes a brief survey of anti- Indian elements that has remained a part and parcel of the political fabric of Bangladesh since 1971. It also looks into the ways in which the anti-India stance has been instrumental in garnering popular support to hold on to political power. The article begins with the background of the creation of Bangladesh and India’s active role in it which was followed by the friendship treaty signed between the two countries. Then it moves to the changing scenario following the coup d’état of 1975 which marked the visible changes within the polity of Bangladesh. The nature of nationalism underwent change moving from secularism to a religious character which found expression in the policies of the state. The military rule most often found it convenient to use the anti-Indian stance in order to please the fundamentalist elements of the country in its bid to garner popular support. The issues of water sharing, refugees and issues of fomenting possible insurgency with active support of India were highlighted. Even after the restoration of democracy, the anti-Indian factions remained active in opposing the government of Sheikh Hasina’s foreign policy with regard to India. Radical religious factions, who had throughout opposed the liberation war, still play a major role in fanning the anti-Indian sentiments in Bangladeshi politics.

Lebanon: A Military in Politics in a Divided Society

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oren Barak
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Role ◽  
Divided Society ◽  
The Military

Since Lebanon’s independence in the mid-1940s, its military—the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)—has played a pivotal role in the country’s politics. The political role of the LAF in Lebanon might seem surprising since the Lebanese state did not militarize, and its political leaders have continuously managed to keep their military relatively weak and small. Indeed, in this respect Lebanon has been markedly different from its close neighbors (Syria and Israel), but also from several other Middle Eastern states (especially Egypt and Iraq), where the military, which was large and powerful, was continuously involved in politics. Additionally, both Lebanon and the LAF have persistently striven to distance themselves from regional conflicts since 1949, particularly in relation to the Palestinian issue, albeit not always successfully. Still, and despite these ostensibly unfavorable factors for the military’s involvement in politics in Lebanon, the LAF has played an important political role in the state since its independence. This role, which has been marked by elements of continuity and change over the years, included mediation and arbitration between rival political factions (in 1945–1958, 2008, 2011, and 2019); attempts to dominate the political system (in 1958–1970 and 1988–1990); intervention in the Lebanese civil war (in 1975–1976 and 1982–1984); attempts to regain its balancing role in politics (in 1979–1982 and 1984–1988); and facilitating the state’s postwar reconstruction (since 1991). The political role of the military in Lebanon can be explained by several factors. First, the weakness of Lebanon’s political system and its inability to resolve crises between its members. Second, Lebanon’s divided society and its members’ general distrust towards its civilian politicians. Third, the basic characteristics of Lebanon’s military, which, in most periods, enjoyed broad public support that cuts across the lines of community, region, and family, and found appeal among domestic and external audiences, which, in their turn, acquiesced to its political role in the state.

INVESTMENT AND INVISIBILITY

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-533
Author(s):  
Aaron Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Justice System ◽  
Mixed Methods Research ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Gain Control ◽  
The State ◽  
People Of Color ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Inequality ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Political Distrust

AbstractDoes political distrust generate a desire to engage in the political process or does it foster demobilization? Utilizing a theoretical framework rooted in government experiences and a mixed-methods research design, this article highlights the racially contingent meaning of political distrust to show that both relationships exist. For Whites, distrust is tied to a perception of tax dollars being poorly spent, leading to increased political involvement as Whites to try to gain control over “their” investment in government. For People of Color, distrust of government is grounded in a fear of the criminal justice system, and thus drives disengagement by motivating a desire for invisibility in relation to the state. Ultimately, this finding highlights a previously unseen racial heterogeneity in the political consequences of distrust. Further, it demonstrates how the state perpetuates racially patterned political inequality in a time when many of the formal laws engendering this dynamic have fallen away.

scholarly journals Islam as a Civilizational Threat: Constitutional Identity, Militant Democracy, and Judicial Review in Western Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1228-1256
Author(s):  
Malthe Hilal-Harvald
Keyword(s):  
Judicial Review ◽  
Liberal Democracy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
Constitutional Identity

AbstractMultiple laws and regulations in Western Europe have been enacted on the premise that headscarves and face veils constitute an existential threat to the constitutional identity of the respective legal systems. Thus, the logic of militant democracy as a justification for restricting fundamental rights have been applied in order to restrict the freedom to manifest one’s religion. Yet, the politicymakers claiming to defend the constitutional identity through militant democracy have not been able to prove the existence of a concrete, imminent threat against the state from the women who wear headscarves or face veils. Nonetheless, the European judiciaries have taken the political claim at face value and allowed the restrictions without compelling the political decision-makers to provide substantive justifications. Thus, the cases of headscarves and face veils offer a prism, through which we can study fundamental paradoxes of liberal democracy and constitutionalism.

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