scholarly journals Fractional-order mathematical model for analysing impact of quarantine on transmission of COVID-19 in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-266
Author(s):  
D. D. Pawar ◽  
◽  
W. D. Patil ◽  
D. K. Raut ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Euler Method ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Physical Interactions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

An outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In India, the first case was reported on January 30, 2020 on a person with a travel history to an affected country. Considering the fact of a heavily populated and diversified country like India, we have proposed a novel fractional-order mathematical model to elicit the transmission dynamics of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the control strategy for India. The classical SEIR model is employed in three compartments, namely: quarantined immigrated population, non-quarantined asymptomatic immigrated population, and local population subjected to lockdown in the containment areas by the government of India to prevent the spread of disease in India. We have also taken into account the physical interactions between them to evaluate the coronavirus transmission dynamics. The basic reproduction number ($R_{0}$) has been derived to determine the communicability of the disease. Numerical simulation is done by using the generalised Euler method. To check the feasibility of our analysis, we have investigated some numerical simulations for various fractional orders by varying values of the parameters with help of MATLAB to fit the realistic pandemic scenario.

scholarly journals Web Application for Statistical Tracking and Predicting the Evolution of Active Cases with the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-74
Author(s):  
Iulia Clitan ◽  
◽  
Adela Puscasiu ◽  
Vlad Muresan ◽  
Mihaela Ligia Unguresan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Novel ◽  
End User ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Since February 2020, when the first case of infection with SARS COV-2 virus appeared in Romania, the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an ascending allure, reaching in September 2020 a second wave of infections as expected. In order to understand the evolution and spread of this disease over time and space, more and more research is focused on obtaining mathematical models that are able to predict the evolution of active cases based on different scenarios and taking into account the numerous inputs that influence the spread of this infection. This paper presents a web responsive application that allows the end user to analyze the evolution of the pandemic in Romania, graphically, and that incorporates, unlike other COVID-19 statistical applications, a prediction of active cases evolution. The prediction is based on a neural network mathematical model, described from the architectural point of view.

scholarly journals COVID-19 denial in Turkmenistan veiling the real situation

2022 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hashim Talib Hashim ◽  
Ahed El Abed El Rassoul ◽  
John Bchara ◽  
Attaullah Ahmadi ◽  
Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Public ◽  
Unethical Practices ◽  
First Case ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in late 2019, with the first case identified in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, on 12 December 2019. In order to perceive the comprehensive impact of this pandemic, we have to know that misinformation and denials about COVID-19 have surely exacerbated its diffusion and hindered the response against it. Turkmenistan remains one of the very few countries in the world that lacks reports about emerging cases of the novel coronavirus. Turkmen authorities claim that they have adopted all attainable measures required in order to combat the virus, asserting that COVID-19 has yet to reach their country. Despite the government’s reported absence of COVID-19 in the country, rumors, media reports and independent sources suggest the spread of the pandemic in Turkmenistan. By mid-June 2020, the outbreak was referred to as being serious with patients suffering extreme health risks, and following its state of disrepair and unethical practices, many of those anticipated to be COVID-19 infected tend to suffer at home, discouraging any interaction with the healthcare system. The civil society in Turkmenistan, for the time being, takes full part of the government’s duty in the process of informing and educating the public regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, and endeavors to keep the government and WHO accountable for behaving in such repressive ways that could lead to rather preventable loss of human life in Turkmenistan. Yet, efforts hang fire before unveiling the real situation, and Turkmenistan’s government owning up to the negations and roaming speculations, not only regarding the coronavirus crisis, but every public-related issue itself.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Air Quality Levels in Samsun, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Bahtiyar Efe
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Data Completeness ◽  
Daily Routines ◽  
First Case ◽  
Metropolitan Cities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Different Levels

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (hereafter COVID-19) has changed the daily routines of people around the world. The first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in December 2019, whilst it was confirmed on 11 March 2020 in Turkey. After the number of cases reached 4500 per day by 10 April, the government declared more restrictive lockdown measures for 31 metropolitan cities, which were implemented for the following weekends and national and religious holidays. The changes in the concentrations of CO, NOx, NO2 and PM10 during the period of these measures with respect to the pre-lockdown period and for different levels of measures for Samsun, the biggest city of the Karadeniz region, were investigated in this study. The daily mean concentrations of CO, NOx, NO2 and PM10 were obtained from Tekkekoy station due to it having data completeness greater than 95% for all pollutants. The average CO, NOx and NO2 concentrations during the lockdown period declined with respect to the pre-lockdown period, whilst PM10 increased by 3%. The average concentrations of all the pollutants decreased when the level of restrictions increased during the COVID-19 lockdown period. The number of days exceeding the WHO limit for PM10 was decreased during the lockdown period to 16 days with respect to the pre-lockdown period at 19 days. There was only a positive weak relationship between the mobility decrease rate and NO2 concentrations.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals A fractional-order model describing the dynamics of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) with nonsingular kernel

2021 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 110859
Author(s):  
Ahmed Boudaoui ◽  
Yacine El hadj Moussa ◽  
Zakia Hammouch ◽  
Saif Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Fractional Order Model ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
Houssine Zine ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Stochastic Time

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Epstein-Barr Virus Versus Novel Coronavirus-Induced Hemophagocytic Lymphohistocytosis: The Uncharted Waters

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 232470962095010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rawan Amir ◽  
Asim Kichloo ◽  
Jagmeet Singh ◽  
Ravinder Bhanot ◽  
Michael Aljadah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Infections ◽  
Epstein Barr Virus ◽  
Genetic Mutations ◽  
High Grade ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Barr Virus ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epstein Barr ◽  
Virus Versus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Hemophagocytic lymphohistocytosis (HLH) is a hyperinflammatory syndrome characterized by fever, hepatosplenomegaly, and pancytopenia. It may be associated with genetic mutations or viral/bacterial infections, most commonly Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and cytomegalovirus. As for the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019), the cytokine storm it triggers can theoretically lead to syndromes similar to HLH. In this article, we report a case of a 28-year-old female who presented with high-grade fevers, found to have both SARS-CoV-2 and EBV infections, and eventually began to show signs of early HLH. To our knowledge, this is the first case reported in literature that raises the possibility of SARS-CoV-2–related HLH development.

scholarly journals Mobility-Guided Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Metro Manila

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernhard Egwolf ◽  
O.P. Nicanor Austriaco
Keyword(s):  
The Philippines ◽  
The Novel ◽  
National Capital Region ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
National Capital ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The City

ABSTRACTCOVID-19 is a novel respiratory disease first identified in Wuhan, China, that is caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. To better understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, we have used real-time mobility data to modify the DELPHI Epidemiological Model recently developed at M.I.T., and to simulate the pandemic in Metro Manila. We have chosen to focus on the National Capital Region, not only because it is the nation’s demographic heart where over a tenth of the country’s population live, but also because it has been the epidemiological epicenter of the Philippine pandemic. Our UST CoV-2 model suggests that the government-imposed enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) has successfully limited the spread of the pandemic. It is clear that the initial wave of the pandemic is flattening, though suppression of viral spread has been delayed by the local pandemics in the City of Manila and Quezon City. Our data also reveals that replacing the ECQ with a General Community Quarantine (GCQ) will increase the forecasted number of deaths in the nation’s capital unless rigorous tracing and testing can be implemented to prevent a second wave of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Mudatsir Mudatsir ◽  
Synat Keam ◽  
Wira Winardi ◽  
Amanda Yufika ◽  
Ali A. Rabaan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Surveillance System ◽  
First Case ◽  
Directorate General ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
Importation Risk

The objective of this study was to determine the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and to evaluate the vigilance of the health system during the early phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Indonesia. The early epidemiology and transmission chains of COVID-19 were analyzed based on data from the Directorate General of Disease Prevention and Control of the Indonesian Ministry of Health. The results of this study shown although Indonesia is a country with a high relative importation risk of SARS-CoV-2, the first two cases of COVID-19 were identified on March 2, 2020. This relatively late date by regional standards raises the possibility of undetected cases beforehand. The first case was a foreigner citizen who visited the capital city of Jakarta and later was diagnosed COVID-19 after returning from Indonesia. One week later after the first case, 27 confirmed COVID-19 cases had been reported in Indonesia, and the majority of the cases were clustered together. Apart from the possibility of underdetection of COVID-19 cases in the country, the government has strengthened the disease surveillance system and established an outbreak preparedness system to diagnose and control COVID-19. 

scholarly journals Information transparency: How do Department of Library and Information Science students at South Valley University perceive the state’s dealing with the novel coronavirus outbreak?

2020 ◽  
pp. 096100062096568
Author(s):  
Essam Mansour
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Library And Information Science ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Science Students ◽  
Information Transparency ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

This study proposes to investigate the knowledge and perception of students in the Department of Library and Information Science at South Valley University in Upper Egypt about the state’s dealing with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19 that has been detected in Egypt in February 2020. A quantitative research approach was adopted in the form of a survey. The target population of the study included students ( N = 295) of the fourth year of Department of Library and Information Science at South Valley University, of which 253 responded to the study questionnaire, representing 85.8% of the total number. The study found that there is no significant relationship between the students’ gender and other variables of the study according to the statistics used. It also showed that the most popular information sources mentioned by Department of Library and Information Science students to get information related to the coronavirus were social media and the Internet/Web. The publication/dissemination of information and its availability were badly perceived by the students. About one-third of them questioned the government’s ability to deal with the novel coronavirus. They highly believe in the role of information transparency in fighting both administrative and human corruption. The students emphasized the citizens’ right to criticize the government when it does not comply with the transparency, as well as the right to access any information owned by it in any formats at any time. They were dissatisfied with the government’s ability to retrieve information, organize, store, have legislations, and own a good database of citizens, as well as its capabilities, in terms of transparency, competence, benevolence, honesty, accuracy, efficiency/effectiveness, practicality, and confidence, in relation to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Finally, the study indicated that barriers, such as the spread of administrative and human corruption, security restrictions, and the fragility of the freedom to disclose government information, were highly significant by the surveyed students.

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