scholarly journals Potential Distribution of the Biocontrol Agent Toxorhynchites rutilus By 2070

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-138
Author(s):  
Daniel S. Marshall ◽  
Christopher J. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biocontrol Agent ◽  
Mosquito Control ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Toxorhynchites Rutilus

ABSTRACT Climate change projections indicate that mosquito distributions will expand to include new areas of North America, increasing human exposure to mosquito-borne disease. Controlling these vectors is imperative, as mosquito-borne disease incidence will rise in response to expansion of mosquito range and increased seasonality. One means of mosquito control used in the USA is the biocontrol agent, Toxorhynchites rutilus. Climate change will open new habitats for its use by vector control organizations, but the extent of this change in habitat is currently unknown. We used a maximum entropy approach to create species distribution models for Tx. rutilus under 4 climate change scenarios by 2070. Mean temperature of warmest quarter (22.6°C to 29.1°C), annual precipitation (1,025.15 mm to 1,529.40 mm), and precipitation seasonality (≤17.86) are the most important bioclimatic variables for suitable habitat. The center of current possible habitat distribution of Tx. rutilus is in central Tennessee. Depending upon the scenario, we expect centroids to shift north-northeast by 97.68 km to 280.16 km by 2070. The extreme change in area of greater than 50% suitable habitat probability is 141.14% with 99.44% area retained. Our models indicate limited change in current habitat as well as creation of new habitat. These results are promising for North American mosquito control programs for the continued and potential combat of vector mosquitoes using Tx. rutilus.

scholarly journals Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Gisel Garza ◽  
Armida Rivera ◽  
Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽  
José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽  
Jon Dale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Endangered Plant ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

scholarly journals Incorporating Local Adaptation Into the Forecasts of Paeonia Veitchii Distribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lixia Tian ◽  
Xiao Sun ◽  
Bashir Ahmad ◽  
Yuanyuan Jiang ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Uv Radiation ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Hierarchical Cluster ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Population Distributions ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Distribution Shifts

Abstract BackgroundSpecies distribution models(SDMs) have been widely used to forecast the distribution of medicinal plants under climate change at the species level. However, most predictions of this distribution have ignored local adaptation.MethodsHere, we used Paeonia veitchii, a Daodi herb from Sichuan Province, China, as an example. The 226 occurrence sites of P. veitchii and 31 bioclimatic variables were used to delineate different climatic populations based on principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. Maximum entropy algorithm was developed to project the distribution of the diverse population under Last Glacial Maximum community climate (ca. 22 ka), the Mid-Holocene (ca. 6 ka), and current and various future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathways [RCPs] 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). Critical environmental variables that shape separate population distributions and distribution shifts under multiple climate change scenarios were also identified. ResultsThe results showed that local adaptation exists within the distribution range of P. veitchii and all presence sites were clustered into P. veitchii from Daodi (PV_Daodi) and non-Daodi (PV_non-Daodi). Precipitation of the wettest month, mean global UV radiation in January (UV_JAN), and mean global UV radiation in July are essential when shaping the distribution of PV_Daodi, and UV_JAN, annual mean air temperature, and isothermality are vital for PV_non-Daodi. The PV_Daodi population was predicted to have an expansion in potential distribution in 2050 and a slight contraction in 2070 under RCP 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios. The PV_non-Daodi population will have a consistent expansion under RCP 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Both populations tend to shift northward under climate change. ConclusionThe results of our study could be a useful reference to implement the long-term conservation of high-quality P. veitchii.

scholarly journals Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11275
Author(s):  
Arayaselassie Abebe Semu ◽  
Tamrat Bekele ◽  
Ermias Lulekal ◽  
Paloma Cariñanos ◽  
Sileshi Nemomissa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Herbarium Specimens ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Species tend to shift their suitable habitat both altitudinally and latitudinally under climate change. Range shift in plants brings about habitat contraction at rear edges, forcing leading edge populations to explore newly available suitable habitats. In order to detect these scenarios, modeling of the future geographical distribution of the species is widely used. Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) Kyal. & Boatwr. is endemic to Ethiopia and was assessed as vulnerable due to changes to its habitat by anthropogenic impacts. It occurs in upland wooded grassland from 2000–3100 m.a.s.l. The main objective of this study is to model the distribution of Vachellia negrii in Ethiopia by using Maxent under climate change. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from an open source. Furthermore, topographic position index (tpi), solar radiation index (sri) and elevation were used. Two representative concentration pathways were selected (RCP 4.5 and RC P8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 5). A correlation analysis of the bioclimatic variables has resulted in the retention of 10 bioclimatic variables for modeling. Forty-eight occurrence points were collected from herbarium specimens. The area under curve (AUC) is 0.94, indicating a high-performance level of the model. The distribution of the species is affected by elevation (26.4%), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14, 21.7%), solar radiation (12.9%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 12.2%). Whereas the RCP 8.5 has resulted in decrease of suitable areas of the species from the current 4,314,153.94 ha (3.80%) to 4,059,150.90 ha (3.58%) in 2050, this area will shrink to 3,555,828.71 ha in 2070 under the same scenario. As climate change severely affects the environment, highly suitable areas for the growth of the study subject will decrease by 758,325 ha. The study’s results shows that this vulnerable, endemic species is facing habitat contraction and requires interventions to ensure its long-term persistence.

scholarly journals Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality ofSchisandra sphenantheraunder climate change

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanlong Guo ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Chunyan Lu ◽  
Bei Gao ◽  
Wei Gu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Medicinal Plants ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants.Schisandra sphenantheraRehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment forS. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution ofS. spenantherawere also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat ofS. sphenantheraunder all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat ofS. sphenantherawould gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas forS. sphenantherawhen the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management ofS. sphenantheraand can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

scholarly journals Predicting the current and future distribution of four original plants of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix in China under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houkang Cao ◽  
Xiaohui Ma ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Shaoyang Xi ◽  
Yanxiu Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Gentiana Macrophylla ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe wild resources of the four original plants (Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk, Gentiana daurica Fisch, Gentiana straminea Maxim, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall) of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix are becoming exhausted. Predicting the distribution under current and future climate scenarios is of significance for the sustainable utilization of resources and ecological protection. In this study, we constructed four species distribution models (SDMs) combining species distribution informations, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that these 4 plants prefer a cool and humid climate. Under the future climate scenarios, the areas of the highly suitable habitats for Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk and Gentiana daurica Fisch were likely to decrease, while Gentiana straminea Maxim was likely to expand, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall was less affected. In addition, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats for the four species shifted north or west. Most notably, most of the highly suitable habitats for the four species remained unchanged, which would be the preferred area for semi-artificial cultivation. The above information in this study would contribute to the development of reasonable strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the four original plants.

scholarly journals Regulation of Seed Dormancy and Germination Mechanisms in a Changing Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1357
Author(s):  
Ewelina A. Klupczyńska ◽  
Tomasz A. Pawłowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seed Germination ◽  
Seed Dormancy ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Plant Evolution ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Mechanism ◽  
Seed Dormancy And Germination

Environmental conditions are the basis of plant reproduction and are the critical factors controlling seed dormancy and germination. Global climate change is currently affecting environmental conditions and changing the reproduction of plants from seeds. Disturbances in germination will cause disturbances in the diversity of plant communities. Models developed for climate change scenarios show that some species will face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. Dormancy is an adaptive mechanism that affects the probability of survival of a species. The ability of seeds of many plant species to survive until dormancy recedes and meet the requirements for germination is an adaptive strategy that can act as a buffer against the negative effects of environmental heterogeneity. The influence of temperature and humidity on seed dormancy status underlines the need to understand how changing environmental conditions will affect seed germination patterns. Knowledge of these processes is important for understanding plant evolution and adaptation to changes in the habitat. The network of genes controlling seed dormancy under the influence of environmental conditions is not fully characterized. Integrating research techniques from different disciplines of biology could aid understanding of the mechanisms of the processes controlling seed germination. Transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenetics, and other fields provide researchers with new opportunities to understand the many processes of plant life. This paper focuses on presenting the adaptation mechanism of seed dormancy and germination to the various environments, with emphasis on their prospective roles in adaptation to the changing climate.

scholarly journals Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Moo-Llanes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Complex Disease ◽  
Protozoan Parasite ◽  
Neotropical Region ◽  
World Health ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Health Organization

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

scholarly journals Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Capainolo ◽  
Utku Perktaş ◽  
Mark D. E. Fellowes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Biogeographic Patterns ◽  
Range Distribution ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Common ◽  
Quiscalus Quiscula

Abstract Background Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula; Linnaeus 1758), though declining in portions of its range, is a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles. Methods We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR) available for the future (2070) to identify climatically suitable areas, with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions. Results Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska, even under more optimistic climate change scenarios. Additionally, there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America. The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation. Conclusions The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years. This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread, common bird species.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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