Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia

Species tend to shift their suitable habitat both altitudinally and latitudinally under climate change. Range shift in plants brings about habitat contraction at rear edges, forcing leading edge populations to explore newly available suitable habitats. In order to detect these scenarios, modeling of the future geographical distribution of the species is widely used. Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) Kyal. & Boatwr. is endemic to Ethiopia and was assessed as vulnerable due to changes to its habitat by anthropogenic impacts. It occurs in upland wooded grassland from 2000–3100 m.a.s.l. The main objective of this study is to model the distribution of Vachellia negrii in Ethiopia by using Maxent under climate change. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from an open source. Furthermore, topographic position index (tpi), solar radiation index (sri) and elevation were used. Two representative concentration pathways were selected (RCP 4.5 and RC P8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 5). A correlation analysis of the bioclimatic variables has resulted in the retention of 10 bioclimatic variables for modeling. Forty-eight occurrence points were collected from herbarium specimens. The area under curve (AUC) is 0.94, indicating a high-performance level of the model. The distribution of the species is affected by elevation (26.4%), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14, 21.7%), solar radiation (12.9%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 12.2%). Whereas the RCP 8.5 has resulted in decrease of suitable areas of the species from the current 4,314,153.94 ha (3.80%) to 4,059,150.90 ha (3.58%) in 2050, this area will shrink to 3,555,828.71 ha in 2070 under the same scenario. As climate change severely affects the environment, highly suitable areas for the growth of the study subject will decrease by 758,325 ha. The study’s results shows that this vulnerable, endemic species is facing habitat contraction and requires interventions to ensure its long-term persistence.

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Potential Distribution of the Biocontrol Agent Toxorhynchites rutilus By 2070

Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association ◽

10.2987/8756-971x-36.3.131 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (3) ◽

pp. 131-138

Author(s):

Daniel S. Marshall ◽

Christopher J. Butler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Biocontrol Agent ◽

Mosquito Control ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Toxorhynchites Rutilus

ABSTRACT Climate change projections indicate that mosquito distributions will expand to include new areas of North America, increasing human exposure to mosquito-borne disease. Controlling these vectors is imperative, as mosquito-borne disease incidence will rise in response to expansion of mosquito range and increased seasonality. One means of mosquito control used in the USA is the biocontrol agent, Toxorhynchites rutilus. Climate change will open new habitats for its use by vector control organizations, but the extent of this change in habitat is currently unknown. We used a maximum entropy approach to create species distribution models for Tx. rutilus under 4 climate change scenarios by 2070. Mean temperature of warmest quarter (22.6°C to 29.1°C), annual precipitation (1,025.15 mm to 1,529.40 mm), and precipitation seasonality (≤17.86) are the most important bioclimatic variables for suitable habitat. The center of current possible habitat distribution of Tx. rutilus is in central Tennessee. Depending upon the scenario, we expect centroids to shift north-northeast by 97.68 km to 280.16 km by 2070. The extreme change in area of greater than 50% suitable habitat probability is 141.14% with 99.44% area retained. Our models indicate limited change in current habitat as well as creation of new habitat. These results are promising for North American mosquito control programs for the continued and potential combat of vector mosquitoes using Tx. rutilus.

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Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems

F1000Research ◽

10.12688/f1000research.19540.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. 978

Author(s):

Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi ◽

Remya K. ◽

Mohamed T. Mousa ◽

Shima K. Al-Badi ◽

Salama K. Al Kaabi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Arid Ecosystems ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km2 is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km2 and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km2 under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.

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Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060689 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

Gisel Garza ◽

Armida Rivera ◽

Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽

José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽

Jon Dale ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

General Circulation ◽

Private Property ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Endangered Plant ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

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Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Heloderma alvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae)

ZooKeys ◽

10.3897/zookeys.1070.69186 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1070 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Aarón Gómez-Cruz ◽

Nancy G. Santos-Hernández ◽

José Alberto Cruz ◽

Daniel Ariano-Sánchez ◽

Christian Ruiz-Castillejos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Current Data ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Human Footprint ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Impact

Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi Bogert & Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H. alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m2) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species’ distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m2) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H. alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.

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Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects13010079 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 79

Author(s):

Haoxiang Zhao ◽

Xiaoqing Xian ◽

Zihua Zhao ◽

Guifen Zhang ◽

Wanxue Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Helicoverpa Zea ◽

Host Plants ◽

Plant Protection ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

General Tendency ◽

Response Curves ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Bioclimatic Variables

Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

10.1101/2020.05.04.076562 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ayush Adhikari ◽

Deep Narayan Shah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Endangered Species ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Rhinoceros Unicornis ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact

AbstractAbrupt change in climate or simply termed as climate change is considered to be one of the major challenges in biodiversity. Change in climate has impacted many species around the world, particularly threatened species like One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis). Rhinoceros unicornis is placed as an endangered species by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Being an endangered species, studies regarding the impact of climate on the distribution of Rhinoceros unicornis is very rare in Nepal. Thus, the present study focuses on identifying the potential impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in Nepal using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). For this, we used the present climatic scenarios and two greenhouse concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two different time periods (2050 and 2070) using different bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated the loose of the suitable habitat of Rhincoeros unicornis by 51.87% and 56.54% in RCP 4.5 for year 2050 and 2070 respectively. Under RCP 8.5 for year 2050 and 2070, the model demonstrated the loose of present suitable habitat by 54.25% and 49.51% respectively. Likewise, our result also predicted elevation as an important bioclimatic variable. This study would provide an information to the policy makers, conservationist and government officer of Nepal for the management and protection of habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in present and future climatic context.

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Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects9030094 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 94 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Carrie Wells ◽

David Tonkyn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Ecological Niche Modeling ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Butterfly Species ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Climate System Model ◽

The Future

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern United States. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two phylogenetically distinct high elevation populations. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, the community climate system model (CCSM) and the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC), under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics area under curve (AUC) test and the true skill statistics (TSS) (mean AUC = 0.91 ± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for representative concentration pathway (RCP) = 4.5; and mean AUC = 0.87 ± 0.0031 SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.

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MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12072671 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 2671 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

H. Oğuz Çoban ◽

Ömer K. Örücü ◽

E. Seda Arslan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Change Analysis ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Study Results ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Future Potential

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

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Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alice Maria Almeida ◽

Maria João Martins ◽

Manuel Lameiras Campagnolo ◽

Paulo Fernandez ◽

Teresa Albuquerque ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Basin ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Range Shift ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Mediterranean Species ◽

Arbutus Unedo ◽

Environmental Suitability ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Mediterranean Basin

AbstractClimate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur.

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat suitability for the Ethiopian staple crop, Eragrostis tef (teff), under changing climate

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.10965 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e10965

Author(s):

Dinka Zewudie ◽

Wenguang Ding ◽

Zhanlei Rong ◽

Chuanyan Zhao ◽

Yapeng Chang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Climate Model ◽

Land Suitability ◽

Eragrostis Tef ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Total Study Area

Teff (Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter) is a staple, ancient food crop in Ethiopia. Its growth is affected by climate change, so it is essential to understand climatic effects on its habitat suitability in order to design countermeasures to ensure food security. Based on the four Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we predicted the potential distribution of teff under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy model (Maxent). Eleven variables were selected out of 19, according to correlation analysis combined with their contribution rates to the distribution. Simulated accuracy results validated by the area under the curve (AUC) had strong predictability with values of 0.83–0.85 for current and RCP scenarios. Our results demonstrated that mean temperature in the coldest season, precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the cold season and slope are the dominant factors driving potential teff distribution. Proportions of suitable teff area, relative to the total study area were 58% in current climate condition, 58.8% in RCP2.6, 57.6% in RCP4.5, 59.2% in RCP6.0, and 57.4% in RCP8.5, respectively. We found that warmer conditions are correlated with decreased land suitability. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were the best predictors for teff suitability. Additionally, there were geographic shifts in land suitability, which need to be accounted for when assessing overall susceptibility to climate change. The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia’s agricultural strategy and food security. A robust climate model is necessary for developing primary adaptive strategies and policy to minimize the harmful impact of climate change on teff.

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