scholarly journals PEMODELAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED PADA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI MALUKU

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Yahya Matdoan ◽  
A. M. Balami ◽  
M. W. Talakua
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Behavior Patterns ◽  
Spline Regression ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Truncated Regression ◽  
A Value ◽  
Poor Population

Economic growth is a benchmark for the success of a region's development, especially in the economic field. The purpose of economic development in an area is basically to improve the welfare and prosperity of the community. Economic growth in Maluku Province experienced a positive increase. However, there is still a disparity between districts/cities in Maluku Province, which has an impact on increasing unemployment and an increasingly poor population. This is inseparable from the influencing factors so that it can be precisely done by modeling these factors using the truncated nonparametric spline regression method. the advantages of this method occur because in nonparametric spline truncated regression has knot points, which are joint fusion points that indicate changes in data behavior patterns. Besides, this method can be used to model data patterns that change at certain sub-intervals. The best model is very dependent on determining the optimal knot point by using the minimum Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) value. The results obtained in this study were the highest percentage of economic growth in Maluku Province, Ambon City with a percentage of 6.17%, and the lowest economic growth was in the East Seram District (SBT) with a percentage of 5.03%. Furthermore, the best model is obtained with a model with three knots and a GCV value of 11.61, a value of 2 of 0.94 and an MSE value of 0.005. This means that statistically, the variables used in this study affect economic growth by 94%. While the rest is influenced by other variables outside the research.

scholarly journals Spline-Fourier’s Method for Modelling Inflation in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 ◽  
pp. 13003
Author(s):  
Suparti Suparti ◽  
Alan Prahutama ◽  
Rukun Santoso ◽  
Alvita Rachma Devi
Keyword(s):  
Nonparametric Regression ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Fourier Method ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Spline Regression ◽  
Shape Modelling ◽  
Fourier Regression ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Fourier Model

Regression method is a statistical method for modelling dependent variable with independent variable. Nonparametric regression is an approach to regression analysis that is suitable for data that have an unknown curve shape. Modelling by using nonparametric regression method does not require any assumptions. Spline and Fourier methods are some of the estimators in nonparametric regression. The spline method requires optimal knots to obtain the best model. The most commonly used method to determine the optimal knots is Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). The Fourier method is a method based on the cosine and sinus series. The Fourier method is particularly suitable for data that experience repetitive patterns. This study modeled the Inflation rate in Indonesia from January 2007 to August 2017. The dependent variable is inflation rate, while the independent variable is time. From the result, linear spline regression estimation with three knots that generates R square of 60%. The best Fourier model is Fourier with K = 100 that generates R square of 80.12%. The best Spline model is with 9 knots generates R square of 87.65%, so, for inflation modelling in Indonesia, the spline regression model generates a simpler model with better R-square than Fourier regression.

scholarly journals Pemodelan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Linear Persentase Penduduk Miskin di Kalimantan

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wianita Noviani ◽  
◽  
Sifriyani Sifriyani ◽  
Ika Purnamasari ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Participation Rate ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Spline Regression ◽  
Nonparametric Regression Model ◽  
Linear Spline ◽  
East Kalimantan ◽  
Average School ◽  
Poor Population

Poverty is a social problem faced in almost every country. Based on BPS data published in 2018, East Kalimantan Province has a population of poor people of 222.39 thousand people or around 6.06 percent. In March 2018, the number of poor people was 218.90 thousand people or about 6.03 percent, which means the number of poor people had increased by an absolute 3.49 thousand people, this caused the percentage of poor people to rise 0.03 percent. In this study identified factors that influence the percentage of poor population using a linear spline nonparametric regression model. The data used in this study are data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 5 provinces in Kalimantan. In the nonparametric linear spline regression method using the optimal knot point based on the smallest GCV value. The results obtained an R2 value of 74.48% which shows that the model formed is feasible to be used to model the data pattern and there are 5 variables that have a significant effect on the Percentage of Poor Population, namely Population Growth Rate, School Length Average, School Old School Expectancy Rate, Level Open Unemployment, Labor Force Participation Rate.

Peculiarities of Modern Dynamics of the Global Economy

2010 ◽  
pp. 78-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Klinov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Long Waves ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Business Taxation ◽  
Modern World ◽  
China And India ◽  
World Economic

Rates and factors of modern world economic growth and the consequences of rapid expansion of the economies of China and India are analyzed in the article. Modification of business cycles and long waves of economic development are evaluated. The need of reforming business taxation is demonstrated.

Contemporary Principles of Heterodox Political Economy

2009 ◽  
pp. 38-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ph. O’Hara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Ethnic Discrimination ◽  
Mainstream Economics ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Analytical Review ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Historical Specificity ◽  
Scientific Results

In this analytical review the author describes the main trends in the modern heterodox political economy as an alternative to mainstream economics. Historical specificity as well as the contradictory and uneven character of economic development are examined in detail. The author also discusses problems of class, gender and ethnic discrimination and their influence on economic growth. It is shown that there are tendencies to convergence of different theoretical perspectives and schools, common themes, topics of research and conceptual apparatus are being formed. The forces of integration and differentiation help establish new ideas and receive interesting scientific results in such fields as development economics, macroeconomics and international economics.

The Quality of Kazakhstan’s Economic Policy and Balance of Payments

2008 ◽  
pp. 120-132
Author(s):  
K. Arystanbekov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Negative Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Efficiency

Kazakhstan’s economic policy in 1996-2007, its character and the degree of responsibility, the correlation between economic development and balance of current accounts are considered in the article. Special attention is paid to the analysis of their macroeconomic efficiency. It is concluded that in conditions of high rates of economic growth in Kazahkstan in 2000-2007 the net profits of foreign investors are 10-11% of GDP every year. The tendency of negative balance of current accounts in favor of foreign investors is also analyzed.

Non-standard functions and structures of ministries of finance under economic challenges: A case study of Western governments

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 2448-2471
Author(s):  
S.V. Anureev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Budget Process

Subject. This article examines the functions and management structures of central financial bodies and related parliamentary and governmental structures in Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, Germany, France and Italy. Objectives. The article aims to identify non-standard functions and structures that go beyond the classical responsibility of finance ministries as a central part of the budget process arising from current economic challenges. Methods. For the study, I used a comparative analysis. Results. The article describes the important new functions of financial authorities and treasuries of Western governments aimed at economic growth and economic recovery. Conclusions. The organizational and management structures and functions of the ministries of finance go far beyond the budget process, overlap with and dominate the functions of central banks and ministries of economic development.

Victor S. D'Souza. Development Planning and Structural Inequalities: The Response of the Underprivileged. New Delhi: Sage Publications 1990. Pages 206 + Index. Price: Rs 180 (Hardbound).

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-317
Author(s):  
Ziaul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Social Structure ◽  
Social Transformation ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Indian Society ◽  
The Social

Deveiopment planning in India, as in other developing countries, has generally been aimed at fostering an industrially-oriented policy as the engine of economic growth. This one-sided economic development, which results in capital formation, creation of urban elites, and underprivileged social classes of a modern society, has led to distortions in the social structure as a whole. On the contrary, as a result of this uneven economic development, which is narrowly measured in terms of economic growth and capital formation, the fruits of development have gone to the people according to their economic power and position in the social structure: those occupying higher positions benefiting much more than those occupying the lower ones. Thus, development planning has tended to increase inequalities and has sharpened divisive tendencies. Victor S. D'Souza, an eminent Indian sociologist, utilizing the Indian census data of 1961, 1971, and 1981, examines the problem of structural inequality with particular reference to the Indian Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes - the two most underprivileged sections of the present Indian society which, according to the census of 1981, comprised 15.75 percent and 7.76 percent of India's population respectively. Theoretically, he takes the concept of development in a broad sense as related to the self-fulfIlment of the individual. The transformation of the unjust social structure, the levelling down of glaring economic and social inequalities, and the concern for the development of the underprivileged are for the author the basic elements of a planned development. This is the theoretical perspective of the first chapter, "Development Planning and Social Transformation".

Amiya Kumar Bagchi. The Political Economy of Underdevelopment. London: Cambridge University Press. 1982. Reprint 1983. pp.viii+276. List of books for further reading; Index. Price: £ 8.50 (paperback edition).

1985 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Zia Ul Haq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Third World ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Cambridge University ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Third World

Amiya Kumar Bagchi, an eminent economist of the modern Cambridge tradition, has produced a timely treatise, in a condensed form, on the development problems of the Third World countries. The author's general thesis is that economic development in the developing societies necessarily requires a radical transformation in the economic, social and political structures. As economic development is actually a social process, economic growth should not be narrowly defined as the growth of the stock of rich capitalists. Neither can their savings be equated to capital formation whose impact on income will presumably 'trickle down' to the working classes. Economic growth strategies must not aim at creating rich elites, because, according to the author, "maximizing the surplus in the hands of the rich in the Third World is not, however, necessarily a way of maximizing the rate of growth".

Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: TURKEY. By Anne O. Kneger. New York : Columbia University Press 1975. (Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., New York) xxiii + 339 pp. Price $ 17.50 for hard cover ; $ 5.00 for paperback.

1975 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-380
Author(s):  
Javed Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
New York ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Exchange Control

The book is the first of a series of studies on Exchange Control, Liberalization and Economic Development sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research, New York. The ten-country study, of which the book under review is a part, provides an in-depth analysis of three major areas : The anatomy of exchange control along with its implications, the episode of the liberalization of the payments regime, and the relationship of growth with the exchange control regime. The findings of the individual country-studies have been consolidated in an overall synthesis. However, each study is complete in itself in accordance with the needs of scholars having an interest in only some of the studies. The book under review seeks to analyse Turkey's trade and payments regime and the effect that the latter has had on the country's economic growth. Whereas quite a few other factors are instrumental in development (e.g. agricultural productivity, levels of education, political and social stability, etc.), the focus on foreign trade alone is justified by the author on the grounds of the tremendous amount of government influence in foreign trade. Moreover, the author believes that an intensive study of the trade-growth relationship is more rewarding than: a general survey of all factors related to economic growth.

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